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Typical 2000 Guineas Winner - Early or Late Foal?
Typical 2000 Guineas Winner - Early or Late Foal?
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Replies: 154
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are you 3 yrs old? :)
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my birthday is the same day as the 1000 guineas so i get in by the skin of my teeth :^0
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The theory seems to rule out few at this stage this year. Hopefully some young impressive maiden and trial winners will enter the picture soon...
I'm thinking that a coupling of this with an avoidance of the Godolphin clique may provide a good priced answer although Sheikh Mohammed seems to be taking everything so much more seriously these days... Coolmore's lack of Danehills tempers enthusiasm over there. |
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fao: Keith
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fao: Keith
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Good man - thoroughly impressive stats picking by Jaws. It wouldn't put me off but Raven's Pass is an early-ish foal anyways.
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Can somebody please explain the conclusion then?
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My conclusion is that there is no conclusion.
Others think there is something to be inferred, which is fine. The arguments for and against are all in this thread. Make of them what you will. |
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A good thread, IMO ;)
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In light of the 1000 Guineas thread which is ubder discussion, It's clearly that time of the year again.
I had my thoughts a couple of years ago......the pattern is maintained, yet I don't seem to back the winner!!! Guidance for this year is sought. do date I have bets on Mastercrafstman who certainly fits the bill, and Art Connoisseur who's just the wrong side of a St Patricks day lash up. Foaling and physical strength it do have a lot to do with winning the Guineas these sort of patterns have been known for years, yet people ignore, and ignore. as an example (something I have to admit I haven't looked at this year, or last) the England football team was consistantlt a prime example of birth dates and success. In the instance of football (and probably most human team sports in general) was the September school term. |
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we're back!
could someone do the research please? ;) |
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This is a superb thread
Jair What research is needed? Just to look up the foaling dates of the entires? |
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In betting order so far
RvW - 12 Feb CH - 22 Mar Master - 19 Feb Naaqoos 17 Apr Evasive - 27 Feb Zacinto - 6 Mar Arazan 29 Jan AC - 20 Mar IF - 24 Feb Cityscape - 2 Feb Westphalia - 25 Mar Himalya - 6 Feb Lord Shanakill - 30 Mar Rayeni - 1 Jan :) On Our Way - 6 Feb Shaweel - 29 Mar Not that helpful so far, but clearly Naaqoos shouldn't bother |
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We've almost cracked it then!
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You're not a big fan of stats Duncan!
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Charlton, I do give that impression, dont I?! Surprisingly, i do look at stats quite a lot and am always interested if they unveil a truth or help to explain something. Feel a lot on here are too quick to jump to conclusions, tho, or are willing to believe that stats give creedence to something which makes no sense. If the stats are well researched and take into account all relevant factors, i'll always take a look.
In this instance, i have no real idea whether foaling date is a pointer to the 2000 Guineas, but i know it's not enough to say no horse born after Mar 31 has won in the last 20 yrs without knowing how many horses born after Mar 31 have actually run (i'd imagine the majority of horses bred for short of middle distances have an early foaling date). |
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Just having a slight dig Duncan :)
You were on the money with your comments on the Bumper Stat thread about the French Breds - they WERE all long prices. |
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Rodrigo de Triano, duel Guineas winner , foaling date 27th of May, the youngest horse in the 2000G that year.
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Slight digs all part of the fun of the forum, Charlton!
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There you go. Goodnight SNA!
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Thats why you missed out on Zafonic and last years winner STS
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Missed STS cos I don't lay horses at 20/1. But Naqoos got the treatment.
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Naaqoos always looked like a sprinter regardless of his foaling date
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Jesus, I thinked you just trumped me on the aftertiming!
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Didn't work last year then?
But Sea the Stars was a once in a generation freak and Ouqba was the only other 'throwout'. Good to be back though! Al Zir 11Feb Awzaan 8Feb Buzzword 5Apr Canford Cliffs 8Feb Dancing David 3May Dick Turpin 30Apr Elusive Pimpernel 14Feb Emerald Commander 22Mar Fencing Master 25Apr Hearts of Fire 22Apr Inler 7Feb Makfi 4Mar Pounced 14Apr St Nicholas Abbey 13Apr Viscount Nelson 6Feb Xtension 2Feb |
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Thanks Jair
:) |
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Quite a lot go out this year!
Awzaan looks the most likely. Maybe Al Zir. |
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March has the best record for 2000Guineas winners , but that could just be because more horses are born in March than any other month ?
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Glad to see one of my favourite threads pulled up again!
I was quite surprised by some of the foaling dates, normally Ballydoyle ensures that nearly all of its horses have foaling dates of March at the latest. |
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Date of Birth. 15/17 were born before 31st March & 13/17 were born before 18th March. ZAFONIC & STS were Early April foals. On balance you need a early foal unless a superstar like the above two
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Ballydoyle have a couple of young uns it appears?
Race seems to packed full of 10f types, the sprinters aside. I'm rowing against the tide still with Canford Cliffs. Think there's question marks all over this race OR St Nicholas Abbey is a wonderhorse. I'm not paying to find that out at 13/8 so will continue to be contrary. |
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ttt
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Good job that French thing came over , or Dick Turpin would have won the Guineas foaled 30th April.
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Nice one Makfi!
 For those that like to know: Frankel: 11 Feb Pathfork: 12 Mar Roderic O'Connor: 4 Apr  Wooton Bassett: 4 Feb Casamento: 20 Mar Dream Ahead: 20 Feb Dubai Prince: 15 Feb Zoffany: 18 Mar Strong Suit: 9 Feb Fury: 28 Mar Saamid: 4 Feb Native Khan: 6 Apr  The system looks good this year |
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I've been eagerly awaiting 'The Doctor' to tell me what the tricast in the 1,000 Guineas is going to be this year[;)]
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Well, clearly Frankel won because he was born at the right time.
No other reason. Since I like this angle here's a few for this year (despite the fact that last year's list I did, half didn't even make the race!) Here's everything trading at under 100 on here right now: Camelot 5th Mar Most Improved (will need to be!) 3rd May Top Offer 29th Mar Nephrite 21st Mar Born to Sea 2nd Mar Parish Hall 7th Feb Power 6th Mar Tales of Grimm 23rd Apr Abtaal 6th Feb Akeed Mofeed 14th Feb Bronterre 18th Feb French Fifteen 7th Feb Trumpet Major 5th Mar Dragon Pulse 23rd Mar Fencing 2nd Mar Caspar Netscher 11th May Aljamaaheer 13th Mar Born to Surprise 5th Apr Coup de Ville 21st Apr Hermival 23rd Apr Mighty Ambition 8th Mar Just to bring up bestmate's quote earlier updated: Date of Birth: 17/19 were born before 31st March & 15/19 were born before 18th March. ZAFONIC & SEA THE STARS were Early April foals. On balance you need a early foal unless a superstar like the above two |
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Interesting tread this one…….I’m impressed by its’ longevity. Hats off to who ever started it off ;-)
Anyway; Most Improved is certainly one of the more interesting horses to fall ‘foul’ of this LUFC logic. A May foal should certainly ring alarm bells, as he didn’t look outstandingly top drawer as a 2yo…so why should he be the ‘most improved’ over the winter? The Oracle of jockeys, Fallen, has even given this horse the thumbs up. Each time though it has been thrown into a 7f event, whether that be a race or a reported gallop. The Craven will prove to be informative, as the extra furlong may see the horse hit the wall…….a strange choice of starting point may I add; I prefer the Charlton route with Top Offer over the Greenham 7f. Though Top Offer himself barely scrape my test. Lets see how things pan out this year. |
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Like this stat
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Isn't there some reverse logic to this, in that those who were foaled later and did not have top,top class 2yo form have a greater chance of improving over the winter?
As someone points out below, **** Turpin went mighty close just recently. |
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Glad I have read this now
 With Most Improved you have a horse who placed in a Group 1 when the Foaling stats tell you he was not quite ready for it. Fastforward 6 months and he has been smashed off the boards by connections. Call me a pocket talker but this has to be a big positive,logically. |