Horse Antepost
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Can we discount a number of horses for the 2000 Guineas based on their actual date of birth?...i.e profile by date of birth
I quite fancy Haatef to get into the mix, based on what he did in the Dewhurst. But looking at recent results he'd be breaking the mould a bit regard him being a late foal.
Any other horses that should be treated with possibly a bit of caution?... and when would the forum say is typically the lastest date a horse could be born as a fullly matured foal without its chances of winning the 1st classic being hindered by its subsequent development to mature horses?
I quite fancy Haatef to get into the mix, based on what he did in the Dewhurst. But looking at recent results he'd be breaking the mould a bit regard him being a late foal.
Any other horses that should be treated with possibly a bit of caution?... and when would the forum say is typically the lastest date a horse could be born as a fullly matured foal without its chances of winning the 1st classic being hindered by its subsequent development to mature horses?
Show More
I had a quick sift through past winners of the Derby to see if this stat also holds. It appears not to, with a few winners over the past 20 years being foaled in April and even late May.....but it would seem that if Archipenko (30th May) wins he'd be the youngest winner to do so from the records I could get off the RP website.
Commander in Chief 18th May
& Erhaab 24th May fly the flag for the late foals
Not sure whether there's any data or record of which is the youngest horse to win the Derby...anyone know.
Commander in Chief 18th May
& Erhaab 24th May fly the flag for the late foals
Not sure whether there's any data or record of which is the youngest horse to win the Derby...anyone know.
46. The earliest-foaled Derby winner on record this century was Captain Cuttle, the 1922 victor who was born January 11, while the latest was the May 25-foaled Pont LEveque, successful in 1940.
Archipenko would have to break a record it would seem then.
it seems so- be interesting to see how the stats are for the irish derby- a few weeks makes all the difference at this stage perhaps
2000 Guineas winner 2007
**NEY REBEL (IRE) 3-y-o (16 Mar 2004) b c
Not mentioned in the reseach above afaik.
**NEY REBEL (IRE) 3-y-o (16 Mar 2004) b c
Not mentioned in the reseach above afaik.
Seems to be a bit of interest in Myboycharlie for next years 2000 Guineas.
It may be worth noting that his foaling date was 20th April.
It may be worth noting that his foaling date was 20th April.
I still think this is statistically irrelevant, yet charmingly cerebral b0llocks. Can anyone definitively prove otherwise, in case I end up fancying a 'latie' ante-post? It's fair enough to highlight that no late foal has won since Zafonic (did the 'trend' not affect him?) but how have late foals done as a total percentage of Guineas runners against statistical expectations? It would be even more interesting to grade it against market expectations. Can anyone do that? Finishing position in relation to market position with respect to foaling date? And then when you think you have evidence, just check to make sure your Ariens and Taureans didn't turn out to be total mince anyway that would never have won a Guineas even if he'd been getting 2st off the 'earlies'.
At the moment I think this is the best post on the thread...
Atavus 26 Apr 16:58
An amazing amount of posts for such an irrelevant stat.
...but I'm willing to be convinced that the stat is of statistical importance.
At the moment I think this is the best post on the thread...
Atavus 26 Apr 16:58
An amazing amount of posts for such an irrelevant stat.
...but I'm willing to be convinced that the stat is of statistical importance.
Hmmmmmmmm !
It is not surely relevant to a certain extent though?
No-one would treat it as an outright stat for winner selection, etc.
But ten consecutive years is a strong trend in anyone's book.
The statistical element is a different ball-game: select a cut-off date e.g. March 19 (my birthday :0 )and then:
No. of runners to take part / place / win, for before and after that date as a %
Perhaps the last 20 years would produce solid enough results.
?:|
It is not surely relevant to a certain extent though?
No-one would treat it as an outright stat for winner selection, etc.
But ten consecutive years is a strong trend in anyone's book.
The statistical element is a different ball-game: select a cut-off date e.g. March 19 (my birthday :0 )and then:
No. of runners to take part / place / win, for before and after that date as a %
Perhaps the last 20 years would produce solid enough results.
?:|
A poser indeed. Another thing that troubles me about it. If a trend concerning age has an effect shouldn't it have this effect on all 3yo races at the time of year in question? Does this hold true? Does it work in the 1000 Guineas? The Craven? The Kentucky Derby? The Greenham? You get the idea. A further question that needs answering IMO.
I'm not even convinced it really is a trend, as such, for all that I can't argue against the evidence. I mean, of the late foals that underperformed in the Guineas, which of those improved later in the season to a level that would have seen them win the Guineas. And if there are such cases, then is there a valid explanation aside from the possibility of a late foal having found improvement? Is it a trend or simply a set of horses with arbitrary birthdays running to their respective abilities, give or take whatever limited scope for improvement with age they might posses?
I'm not even convinced it really is a trend, as such, for all that I can't argue against the evidence. I mean, of the late foals that underperformed in the Guineas, which of those improved later in the season to a level that would have seen them win the Guineas. And if there are such cases, then is there a valid explanation aside from the possibility of a late foal having found improvement? Is it a trend or simply a set of horses with arbitrary birthdays running to their respective abilities, give or take whatever limited scope for improvement with age they might posses?
Hello Chaps
agree that there may not have been too many late foals running in the Guineas, and this could be a source of skewing the pattern, but that pattern still exists.
I'd say if you called Coolmore today wanting to book one of their top stallions for next March or April you'd be politely turned down, because they'll be fully booked by their preferred breeders......but July/ August and they'll be much more accomodating. The breeders certainly think that late foals at at a disadvantage in their classic year, hence the prevelance of foals born in late Jan, through Feb and into early March fetching the heftiest prices at the sales.
Physical maturity is recognised in racing, and this is reflected in the way 2yo races early in the season are over 5 and 6f, and then (I think by Royal Ascot) 7f, with the mile only exceeded late in the season.
And the classics 1m, 1m 4f, and then 1m 6f
What a late foal may achieve over 6 and 7f at 2 may not truely reflect their limitations for the following years 2000 Guineas where the pace is fast and Newmarket's Rowley mile is a tough finish.
Physical (and mental) development impacts in many other ways too. I remember a report a good 10years+ ago into the typical professional footballer. The vast majority of whom were born September, October and November.....school terms are based around a September year start.
I myself will continue to treat late foals with a degree of caution.
agree that there may not have been too many late foals running in the Guineas, and this could be a source of skewing the pattern, but that pattern still exists.
I'd say if you called Coolmore today wanting to book one of their top stallions for next March or April you'd be politely turned down, because they'll be fully booked by their preferred breeders......but July/ August and they'll be much more accomodating. The breeders certainly think that late foals at at a disadvantage in their classic year, hence the prevelance of foals born in late Jan, through Feb and into early March fetching the heftiest prices at the sales.
Physical maturity is recognised in racing, and this is reflected in the way 2yo races early in the season are over 5 and 6f, and then (I think by Royal Ascot) 7f, with the mile only exceeded late in the season.
And the classics 1m, 1m 4f, and then 1m 6f
What a late foal may achieve over 6 and 7f at 2 may not truely reflect their limitations for the following years 2000 Guineas where the pace is fast and Newmarket's Rowley mile is a tough finish.
Physical (and mental) development impacts in many other ways too. I remember a report a good 10years+ ago into the typical professional footballer. The vast majority of whom were born September, October and November.....school terms are based around a September year start.
I myself will continue to treat late foals with a degree of caution.
This topic interested me so I had a closer look at the last 18 renweals of the English 2000 Guineas.
Foaled after 1st April -
93 runners
1 winner - 1.075% Strike Rate
9 placed - 9.67% SR
81 unplaced
Foaled before 1st April -
220 runners
17 winners - 7.72% SR
45 placed - 22.5% SR
158 unplaced
Zafonic who was the only horse to win after being foaled after March 31st was only born a day later on the 1st of April.
Obviously with there being more early foaled horses the strike rate should be greater than that of the late foaled horses. However with the late foals 93 runners you would expect more winners and more placed horses than their current tally. That is of course if you assume the date a horse is foaled has no impact on how horses perform in the 2000 Guineas.
......................................................................................................................
Well maybe thats because late foals go off at bigger prices than their early foaled rivals?
In the last 18 renewals there has been 22 late foaled horses than have gone off at single figure prices. In comparision there has been 57 early foaled horses go off at single digit prices. The ratios of runners to single digit priced runners is very similar for both early and late foals suggesting the market at least doesnt disciminate against late foals.
Late foals SP below 10/1
22 runners
1 win - 4.5% SR
3 placed - 13.6% SR
Early foals SP below 10/1
57 runners
14 winners - 24.5% SR
10 placed - 17.5% SR
......................................................................................................................
It would appear to me at least that it is a significant disadvantage to be foaled after the 31st of March. This particular stat would then suggest the likes of Myboycharlie 20th April, Famous Name 3 May, Lizard Island 15th April and Tajdeef 13th April are up against it if they are to win the 2000 Guineas.
===========================================================
Now im going to go a little off topic but ive been looking at the past runnings of the 2000 Guineas to see if I can see any strong patterns.
15 of the last 18 winners of the 2000 Guineas had made their debut after Royal Ascot.
Of the three who made their debuts before Royal Ascot they were all trained by A P OBrien and had won the Railway Stakes - King Of Kings (1998), Rock Of Gibraltar (2002) and George Washington (2006).
17/18 Went off at a single digit SP on debut. Only [b**ney Rebel[/b] @ 10/1 has broken this stat in the last 18 renewals.
18/18 had at least finished in the money (first 4 places) on debut.
13/18 had won first time out.
Of the other five all bar Tirol (1991) had then gone on to easily break their maiden next time out, winning by at least two lengths.
18/18 Not run in handicap company.
18/18 Sire stamina influence at least (7.5)
12 of the last 18 winners had run in either the Champagne Stakes at Donny, National Stakes at the Curragh, the Dewhurst at HQ and the Gimcrack at York. As there isnt a list of horses entered in the 2000 Guineas im going to be looking at the horses entered in the races mentioned above and try to come up with a selection based on the stats, breeding and form.
......................................................................................................................
The stats rule out the first three in the betting with some bookmakers Myboycharlie, Henrythenavigator and Winker Watson.
Minus the obvious deadwood the stats leaves the following horses.
Atlantic Sport, Beret Rouge, Captain Brilliance, Cat Junior, Fast Company, Frozen Fire, McCartney, Minted, New Approach, Rio De La Plata, Sharp Nephew, Skadrax, Tanweer and Unquenchable Fire
For my money Frozen Fire will be taken down the Derby route as will New Approach. McCarthey will probably be a typical Mark Johnson Royal Ascot horse for something like the King George VII Stakes.
Captain Brilliance disappointed in his maiden first time out but showed that to be all wrong when winning comfortably LTO. He beat some a couple of rivals who had plenty of fancy enteries and he did it well. He runs in the Acomb tomorrow and that will give us a better idea. The fact that he isnt even listed on Betfair suggests great things arent expected though.
Tanweer could be anything with his trainers record of improving his horses but strictly on the form of his maiden he cant be fancied. The field was bunched at the finish and they didnt look anything special and only his stable mate Conduit back in 7th had any worthwhile enteries. The time also was only 0.4sec faster than the 2yo seller later in the day.
Of the Meehan runners Cat Junior appears to have been touted as the yards best 2yo but strictly on what they have shown its difficult to split them. However being by Storm Cat out of a Sadlers Wells mare he catches the eye on breeding out and looks very interesting.
Atlantic Sport and Skadrax are closely matched on the form of their Ascot maiden. That looked a decent maiden with the front three in the market dominating the betting and then the race. Cat Junior was withdrawn from that race because of the soft ground.
The two A Fabre trained horses Minted and Beret Rouge look very interesting as do their enteries in the the Dewhurst. The French trainer has had 4 runners in the Dewhurst with 3 winning the race and two of them followed up in the 2000 Guineas.
Rio De La Plata was an impressive winner at Goodwood and is another very interesting condender. The form of the Vintage Stakes looks strong with the 2nd Lizard Island the winner of the Railway Stakes, the 3rd Donegal hacked up in his York maiden and the 4th Scintillo was 3rd in the Washington Singer Stakes at the weekend. Despite this Rio De La Plata made them look very average and as he was out in front on his own for almost two furlongs he idled and can be judged as value for his two length winning margin. The worries are though that connections talked about going to America for the Breeders Cup Juvenile and if he ran there I doubt they would come back but instead go for the Kentucky Derby. If the Guineas is his target though he could go very close.
That leaves me with a final list below and I shall be following their fortunes with interest.
Rio De La Plata
Cat Junior
Minted
Beret Rogue
Foaled after 1st April -
93 runners
1 winner - 1.075% Strike Rate
9 placed - 9.67% SR
81 unplaced
Foaled before 1st April -
220 runners
17 winners - 7.72% SR
45 placed - 22.5% SR
158 unplaced
Zafonic who was the only horse to win after being foaled after March 31st was only born a day later on the 1st of April.
Obviously with there being more early foaled horses the strike rate should be greater than that of the late foaled horses. However with the late foals 93 runners you would expect more winners and more placed horses than their current tally. That is of course if you assume the date a horse is foaled has no impact on how horses perform in the 2000 Guineas.
......................................................................................................................
Well maybe thats because late foals go off at bigger prices than their early foaled rivals?
In the last 18 renewals there has been 22 late foaled horses than have gone off at single figure prices. In comparision there has been 57 early foaled horses go off at single digit prices. The ratios of runners to single digit priced runners is very similar for both early and late foals suggesting the market at least doesnt disciminate against late foals.
Late foals SP below 10/1
22 runners
1 win - 4.5% SR
3 placed - 13.6% SR
Early foals SP below 10/1
57 runners
14 winners - 24.5% SR
10 placed - 17.5% SR
......................................................................................................................
It would appear to me at least that it is a significant disadvantage to be foaled after the 31st of March. This particular stat would then suggest the likes of Myboycharlie 20th April, Famous Name 3 May, Lizard Island 15th April and Tajdeef 13th April are up against it if they are to win the 2000 Guineas.
===========================================================
Now im going to go a little off topic but ive been looking at the past runnings of the 2000 Guineas to see if I can see any strong patterns.
15 of the last 18 winners of the 2000 Guineas had made their debut after Royal Ascot.
Of the three who made their debuts before Royal Ascot they were all trained by A P OBrien and had won the Railway Stakes - King Of Kings (1998), Rock Of Gibraltar (2002) and George Washington (2006).
17/18 Went off at a single digit SP on debut. Only [b**ney Rebel[/b] @ 10/1 has broken this stat in the last 18 renewals.
18/18 had at least finished in the money (first 4 places) on debut.
13/18 had won first time out.
Of the other five all bar Tirol (1991) had then gone on to easily break their maiden next time out, winning by at least two lengths.
18/18 Not run in handicap company.
18/18 Sire stamina influence at least (7.5)
12 of the last 18 winners had run in either the Champagne Stakes at Donny, National Stakes at the Curragh, the Dewhurst at HQ and the Gimcrack at York. As there isnt a list of horses entered in the 2000 Guineas im going to be looking at the horses entered in the races mentioned above and try to come up with a selection based on the stats, breeding and form.
......................................................................................................................
The stats rule out the first three in the betting with some bookmakers Myboycharlie, Henrythenavigator and Winker Watson.
Minus the obvious deadwood the stats leaves the following horses.
Atlantic Sport, Beret Rouge, Captain Brilliance, Cat Junior, Fast Company, Frozen Fire, McCartney, Minted, New Approach, Rio De La Plata, Sharp Nephew, Skadrax, Tanweer and Unquenchable Fire
For my money Frozen Fire will be taken down the Derby route as will New Approach. McCarthey will probably be a typical Mark Johnson Royal Ascot horse for something like the King George VII Stakes.
Captain Brilliance disappointed in his maiden first time out but showed that to be all wrong when winning comfortably LTO. He beat some a couple of rivals who had plenty of fancy enteries and he did it well. He runs in the Acomb tomorrow and that will give us a better idea. The fact that he isnt even listed on Betfair suggests great things arent expected though.
Tanweer could be anything with his trainers record of improving his horses but strictly on the form of his maiden he cant be fancied. The field was bunched at the finish and they didnt look anything special and only his stable mate Conduit back in 7th had any worthwhile enteries. The time also was only 0.4sec faster than the 2yo seller later in the day.
Of the Meehan runners Cat Junior appears to have been touted as the yards best 2yo but strictly on what they have shown its difficult to split them. However being by Storm Cat out of a Sadlers Wells mare he catches the eye on breeding out and looks very interesting.
Atlantic Sport and Skadrax are closely matched on the form of their Ascot maiden. That looked a decent maiden with the front three in the market dominating the betting and then the race. Cat Junior was withdrawn from that race because of the soft ground.
The two A Fabre trained horses Minted and Beret Rouge look very interesting as do their enteries in the the Dewhurst. The French trainer has had 4 runners in the Dewhurst with 3 winning the race and two of them followed up in the 2000 Guineas.
Rio De La Plata was an impressive winner at Goodwood and is another very interesting condender. The form of the Vintage Stakes looks strong with the 2nd Lizard Island the winner of the Railway Stakes, the 3rd Donegal hacked up in his York maiden and the 4th Scintillo was 3rd in the Washington Singer Stakes at the weekend. Despite this Rio De La Plata made them look very average and as he was out in front on his own for almost two furlongs he idled and can be judged as value for his two length winning margin. The worries are though that connections talked about going to America for the Breeders Cup Juvenile and if he ran there I doubt they would come back but instead go for the Kentucky Derby. If the Guineas is his target though he could go very close.
That leaves me with a final list below and I shall be following their fortunes with interest.
Rio De La Plata
Cat Junior
Minted
Beret Rogue
Sublime work, Jaws.
I remain unconvinced about the foaling date issue on a couple of points. The first one I mentioned earlier on this topic. Of those late foals that were prominent in the market, which had the form going into the race to justify such a position and more importantly, which subsequently showed form good enough to win an average Guineas? For instance, it would defy logic to suggest that Minardi's (5/1) failure to win the Guineas had anything to do with his 3 May foaling date. The fact is that he never showed any subsequent form to suggest he might have improved on that position later in the year (unless we assume that late foals are permanently disadvantaged until they reach full maturity). My second area of scepticism was touched upon by AR earlier in this thread:
No-one would treat it as an outright stat for winner selection
I doubt many people would disagree with that statement. But beyond that I just can't see that it would have a deciding influence in relation to all the other variables at play. If you feel a horse genuinely has the form to win a Guineas then worrying about minutiae like foaling dates seems to smack of overanalysis to my mind. As far as things to consider go, this would be foaling date would be well down the list below things like form, timefigures, going, physique, market confidence and all the other things that go towards making a selection.
All that said, I have a great deal of respect for those who have uncovered this angle. I may dispute it's usefulness, but without wanting to sound pompous I absolutely applaud the contrarian spirit with which it was conceived. I remain to be convinced, but if you feel it is something to bear in mind then the very best of luck to you.
:)
I remain unconvinced about the foaling date issue on a couple of points. The first one I mentioned earlier on this topic. Of those late foals that were prominent in the market, which had the form going into the race to justify such a position and more importantly, which subsequently showed form good enough to win an average Guineas? For instance, it would defy logic to suggest that Minardi's (5/1) failure to win the Guineas had anything to do with his 3 May foaling date. The fact is that he never showed any subsequent form to suggest he might have improved on that position later in the year (unless we assume that late foals are permanently disadvantaged until they reach full maturity). My second area of scepticism was touched upon by AR earlier in this thread:
No-one would treat it as an outright stat for winner selection
I doubt many people would disagree with that statement. But beyond that I just can't see that it would have a deciding influence in relation to all the other variables at play. If you feel a horse genuinely has the form to win a Guineas then worrying about minutiae like foaling dates seems to smack of overanalysis to my mind. As far as things to consider go, this would be foaling date would be well down the list below things like form, timefigures, going, physique, market confidence and all the other things that go towards making a selection.
All that said, I have a great deal of respect for those who have uncovered this angle. I may dispute it's usefulness, but without wanting to sound pompous I absolutely applaud the contrarian spirit with which it was conceived. I remain to be convinced, but if you feel it is something to bear in mind then the very best of luck to you.
:)
The last 3 posts:
Excellent imo.
Will add something of far lesser value to the pot in a bit... :)
Excellent imo.
Will add something of far lesser value to the pot in a bit... :)
...which was simply the figures Jaws provides are extremely eye-catching -- for that
reason alone if you had one that you did really fancy, like SLB says, with a late F-date
you'd have to be concerned about him placing never mind winning.
The correlative aspect is that it is obviously physically very demanding for any horse to win
the 2000, it is easy to observe how many get nowhere near the heights they suggested, or were suggested for them, at 2 - or at least it takes many a good chunk of the season to even begin to fulfill their potential.
(Others know far more than me about equine physiology obviously).
From a betting angle, the F-date would be high in my considerations for next year, and the one I'm interested to see run next - Majestic Marauder - is a February boy! :p
reason alone if you had one that you did really fancy, like SLB says, with a late F-date
you'd have to be concerned about him placing never mind winning.
The correlative aspect is that it is obviously physically very demanding for any horse to win
the 2000, it is easy to observe how many get nowhere near the heights they suggested, or were suggested for them, at 2 - or at least it takes many a good chunk of the season to even begin to fulfill their potential.
(Others know far more than me about equine physiology obviously).
From a betting angle, the F-date would be high in my considerations for next year, and the one I'm interested to see run next - Majestic Marauder - is a February boy! :p
Haatef, Adagio and Strategic Prince all ran below significant market expectations this year
All failed the test.
All failed the test.
As the 2000 Guineas discussions were building up, I thought I'd revive this thread.
Some may deride the logic, but I think last years result gave a fair bit of credibility to the theory.
I haven't looked in detail at the entries for this year yet, but I know that Henry THe Navigator, Winke Watson & New Approach all fit the bill regards birthday.
...feel free to continue the scorn or add value to the thread
Some may deride the logic, but I think last years result gave a fair bit of credibility to the theory.
I haven't looked in detail at the entries for this year yet, but I know that Henry THe Navigator, Winke Watson & New Approach all fit the bill regards birthday.
...feel free to continue the scorn or add value to the thread
I'm a card-carrying agnostic, but nevertheless...
New Approach - 18 Feb
Raven's Pass - 17 Feb
Fast Company - 18 Mar
Ibn Khaldun - 14 Feb
Winker Watson - 19 Feb
Jupiter Pluvius - 30 Mar
Rio De La Plata - 26 Mar
Henrythenavigator - 28 Feb
Myboycharlie - 20 Apr
Confront - 11 Feb
Amaakin - 12 Apr
Twice Over - 16 Mar
Calming Influence - 21 Mar
Bruges - 18 Jan
Plan - 13 Apr
Gothenburg - 23 Mar
Atlantic Sport - 12 Feb
Stimulation - 15 Feb
...and so on.
New Approach - 18 Feb
Raven's Pass - 17 Feb
Fast Company - 18 Mar
Ibn Khaldun - 14 Feb
Winker Watson - 19 Feb
Jupiter Pluvius - 30 Mar
Rio De La Plata - 26 Mar
Henrythenavigator - 28 Feb
Myboycharlie - 20 Apr
Confront - 11 Feb
Amaakin - 12 Apr
Twice Over - 16 Mar
Calming Influence - 21 Mar
Bruges - 18 Jan
Plan - 13 Apr
Gothenburg - 23 Mar
Atlantic Sport - 12 Feb
Stimulation - 15 Feb
...and so on.
my birthday is the same day as the 1000 guineas so i get in by the skin of my teeth :^0
The theory seems to rule out few at this stage this year. Hopefully some young impressive maiden and trial winners will enter the picture soon...
I'm thinking that a coupling of this with an avoidance of the Godolphin clique may provide a good priced answer although Sheikh Mohammed seems to be taking everything so much more seriously these days...
Coolmore's lack of Danehills tempers enthusiasm over there.
I'm thinking that a coupling of this with an avoidance of the Godolphin clique may provide a good priced answer although Sheikh Mohammed seems to be taking everything so much more seriously these days...
Coolmore's lack of Danehills tempers enthusiasm over there.
Good man - thoroughly impressive stats picking by Jaws. It wouldn't put me off but Raven's Pass is an early-ish foal anyways.
My conclusion is that there is no conclusion.
Others think there is something to be inferred, which is fine.
The arguments for and against are all in this thread. Make of them what you will.
Others think there is something to be inferred, which is fine.
The arguments for and against are all in this thread. Make of them what you will.
In light of the 1000 Guineas thread which is ubder discussion, It's clearly that time of the year again.
I had my thoughts a couple of years ago......the pattern is maintained, yet I don't seem to back the winner!!!
Guidance for this year is sought.
do date I have bets on Mastercrafstman who certainly fits the bill, and Art Connoisseur who's just the wrong side of a St Patricks day lash up.
Foaling and physical strength it do have a lot to do with winning the Guineas
these sort of patterns have been known for years, yet people ignore, and ignore.
as an example (something I have to admit I haven't looked at this year, or last) the England football team was consistantlt a prime example of birth dates and success. In the instance of football (and probably most human team sports in general) was the September school term.
I had my thoughts a couple of years ago......the pattern is maintained, yet I don't seem to back the winner!!!
Guidance for this year is sought.
do date I have bets on Mastercrafstman who certainly fits the bill, and Art Connoisseur who's just the wrong side of a St Patricks day lash up.
Foaling and physical strength it do have a lot to do with winning the Guineas
these sort of patterns have been known for years, yet people ignore, and ignore.
as an example (something I have to admit I haven't looked at this year, or last) the England football team was consistantlt a prime example of birth dates and success. In the instance of football (and probably most human team sports in general) was the September school term.
This is a superb thread
Jair
What research is needed? Just to look up the foaling dates of the entires?
Jair
What research is needed? Just to look up the foaling dates of the entires?
In betting order so far
RvW - 12 Feb
CH - 22 Mar
Master - 19 Feb
Naaqoos 17 Apr
Evasive - 27 Feb
Zacinto - 6 Mar
Arazan 29 Jan
AC - 20 Mar
IF - 24 Feb
Cityscape - 2 Feb
Westphalia - 25 Mar
Himalya - 6 Feb
Lord Shanakill - 30 Mar
Rayeni - 1 Jan :)
On Our Way - 6 Feb
Shaweel - 29 Mar
Not that helpful so far, but clearly Naaqoos shouldn't bother
RvW - 12 Feb
CH - 22 Mar
Master - 19 Feb
Naaqoos 17 Apr
Evasive - 27 Feb
Zacinto - 6 Mar
Arazan 29 Jan
AC - 20 Mar
IF - 24 Feb
Cityscape - 2 Feb
Westphalia - 25 Mar
Himalya - 6 Feb
Lord Shanakill - 30 Mar
Rayeni - 1 Jan :)
On Our Way - 6 Feb
Shaweel - 29 Mar
Not that helpful so far, but clearly Naaqoos shouldn't bother
Charlton, I do give that impression, dont I?! Surprisingly, i do look at stats quite a lot and am always interested if they unveil a truth or help to explain something. Feel a lot on here are too quick to jump to conclusions, tho, or are willing to believe that stats give creedence to something which makes no sense. If the stats are well researched and take into account all relevant factors, i'll always take a look.
In this instance, i have no real idea whether foaling date is a pointer to the 2000 Guineas, but i know it's not enough to say no horse born after Mar 31 has won in the last 20 yrs without knowing how many horses born after Mar 31 have actually run (i'd imagine the majority of horses bred for short of middle distances have an early foaling date).
In this instance, i have no real idea whether foaling date is a pointer to the 2000 Guineas, but i know it's not enough to say no horse born after Mar 31 has won in the last 20 yrs without knowing how many horses born after Mar 31 have actually run (i'd imagine the majority of horses bred for short of middle distances have an early foaling date).
Just having a slight dig Duncan :)
You were on the money with your comments on the Bumper Stat thread about the French Breds - they WERE all long prices.
You were on the money with your comments on the Bumper Stat thread about the French Breds - they WERE all long prices.
Rodrigo de Triano, duel Guineas winner , foaling date 27th of May, the youngest horse in the 2000G that year.
Slight digs all part of the fun of the forum, Charlton!
Thats why you missed out on Zafonic and last years winner STS
Missed STS cos I don't lay horses at 20/1. But Naqoos got the treatment.
Naaqoos always looked like a sprinter regardless of his foaling date
Jesus, I thinked you just trumped me on the aftertiming!
Didn't work last year then?
But Sea the Stars was a once in a generation freak and Ouqba was the only other 'throwout'.
Good to be back though!
Al Zir 11Feb
Awzaan 8Feb
Buzzword 5Apr
Canford Cliffs 8Feb
Dancing David 3May
Dick Turpin 30Apr
Elusive Pimpernel 14Feb
Emerald Commander 22Mar
Fencing Master 25Apr
Hearts of Fire 22Apr
Inler 7Feb
Makfi 4Mar
Pounced 14Apr
St Nicholas Abbey 13Apr
Viscount Nelson 6Feb
Xtension 2Feb
But Sea the Stars was a once in a generation freak and Ouqba was the only other 'throwout'.
Good to be back though!
Al Zir 11Feb
Awzaan 8Feb
Buzzword 5Apr
Canford Cliffs 8Feb
Dancing David 3May
Dick Turpin 30Apr
Elusive Pimpernel 14Feb
Emerald Commander 22Mar
Fencing Master 25Apr
Hearts of Fire 22Apr
Inler 7Feb
Makfi 4Mar
Pounced 14Apr
St Nicholas Abbey 13Apr
Viscount Nelson 6Feb
Xtension 2Feb
Quite a lot go out this year!
Awzaan looks the most likely. Maybe Al Zir.
Awzaan looks the most likely. Maybe Al Zir.
March has the best record for 2000Guineas winners , but that could just be because more horses are born in March than any other month ?
Glad to see one of my favourite threads pulled up again!
I was quite surprised by some of the foaling dates, normally Ballydoyle ensures that nearly all of its horses have foaling dates of March at the latest.
I was quite surprised by some of the foaling dates, normally Ballydoyle ensures that nearly all of its horses have foaling dates of March at the latest.
Date of Birth. 15/17 were born before 31st March & 13/17 were born before 18th March. ZAFONIC & STS were Early April foals. On balance you need a early foal unless a superstar like the above two
Ballydoyle have a couple of young uns it appears?
Race seems to packed full of 10f types, the sprinters aside.
I'm rowing against the tide still with Canford Cliffs.
Think there's question marks all over this race OR St Nicholas Abbey is a wonderhorse.
I'm not paying to find that out at 13/8 so will continue to be contrary.
Race seems to packed full of 10f types, the sprinters aside.
I'm rowing against the tide still with Canford Cliffs.
Think there's question marks all over this race OR St Nicholas Abbey is a wonderhorse.
I'm not paying to find that out at 13/8 so will continue to be contrary.
Good job that French thing came over , or Dick Turpin would have won the Guineas foaled 30th April.
Nice one Makfi! 
For those that like to know:
Frankel: 11 Feb
Pathfork: 12 Mar
Roderic O'Connor: 4 Apr
Wooton Bassett: 4 Feb
Casamento: 20 Mar
Dream Ahead: 20 Feb
Dubai Prince: 15 Feb
Zoffany: 18 Mar
Strong Suit: 9 Feb
Fury: 28 Mar
Saamid: 4 Feb
Native Khan: 6 Apr
The system looks good this year
For those that like to know:
Frankel: 11 Feb
Pathfork: 12 Mar
Roderic O'Connor: 4 Apr
Wooton Bassett: 4 Feb
Casamento: 20 Mar
Dream Ahead: 20 Feb
Dubai Prince: 15 Feb
Zoffany: 18 Mar
Strong Suit: 9 Feb
Fury: 28 Mar
Saamid: 4 Feb
Native Khan: 6 Apr
The system looks good this year
I've been eagerly awaiting 'The Doctor' to tell me what the tricast in the 1,000 Guineas is going to be this year[;)]
Well, clearly Frankel won because he was born at the right time.
No other reason.
Since I like this angle here's a few for this year (despite the fact that last year's list I did, half didn't even make the race!)
Here's everything trading at under 100 on here right now:
Camelot 5th Mar
Most Improved (will need to be!) 3rd May
Top Offer 29th Mar
Nephrite 21st Mar
Born to Sea 2nd Mar
Parish Hall 7th Feb
Power 6th Mar
Tales of Grimm 23rd Apr
Abtaal 6th Feb
Akeed Mofeed 14th Feb
Bronterre 18th Feb
French Fifteen 7th Feb
Trumpet Major 5th Mar
Dragon Pulse 23rd Mar
Fencing 2nd Mar
Caspar Netscher 11th May
Aljamaaheer 13th Mar
Born to Surprise 5th Apr
Coup de Ville 21st Apr
Hermival 23rd Apr
Mighty Ambition 8th Mar
Just to bring up bestmate's quote earlier updated:
Date of Birth: 17/19 were born before 31st March & 15/19 were born before 18th March. ZAFONIC & SEA THE STARS were Early April foals. On balance you need a early foal unless a superstar like the above two
No other reason.
Since I like this angle here's a few for this year (despite the fact that last year's list I did, half didn't even make the race!)
Here's everything trading at under 100 on here right now:
Camelot 5th Mar
Most Improved (will need to be!) 3rd May
Top Offer 29th Mar
Nephrite 21st Mar
Born to Sea 2nd Mar
Parish Hall 7th Feb
Power 6th Mar
Tales of Grimm 23rd Apr
Abtaal 6th Feb
Akeed Mofeed 14th Feb
Bronterre 18th Feb
French Fifteen 7th Feb
Trumpet Major 5th Mar
Dragon Pulse 23rd Mar
Fencing 2nd Mar
Caspar Netscher 11th May
Aljamaaheer 13th Mar
Born to Surprise 5th Apr
Coup de Ville 21st Apr
Hermival 23rd Apr
Mighty Ambition 8th Mar
Just to bring up bestmate's quote earlier updated:
Date of Birth: 17/19 were born before 31st March & 15/19 were born before 18th March. ZAFONIC & SEA THE STARS were Early April foals. On balance you need a early foal unless a superstar like the above two
Interesting tread this one…….I’m impressed by its’ longevity. Hats off to who ever started it off ;-)
Anyway; Most Improved is certainly one of the more interesting horses to fall ‘foul’ of this LUFC logic. A May foal should certainly ring alarm bells, as he didn’t look outstandingly top drawer as a 2yo…so why should he be the ‘most improved’ over the winter?
The Oracle of jockeys, Fallen, has even given this horse the thumbs up. Each time though it has been thrown into a 7f event, whether that be a race or a reported gallop.
The Craven will prove to be informative, as the extra furlong may see the horse hit the wall…….a strange choice of starting point may I add; I prefer the Charlton route with Top Offer over the Greenham 7f. Though Top Offer himself barely scrape my test.
Lets see how things pan out this year.
Anyway; Most Improved is certainly one of the more interesting horses to fall ‘foul’ of this LUFC logic. A May foal should certainly ring alarm bells, as he didn’t look outstandingly top drawer as a 2yo…so why should he be the ‘most improved’ over the winter?
The Oracle of jockeys, Fallen, has even given this horse the thumbs up. Each time though it has been thrown into a 7f event, whether that be a race or a reported gallop.
The Craven will prove to be informative, as the extra furlong may see the horse hit the wall…….a strange choice of starting point may I add; I prefer the Charlton route with Top Offer over the Greenham 7f. Though Top Offer himself barely scrape my test.
Lets see how things pan out this year.
Isn't there some reverse logic to this, in that those who were foaled later and did not have top,top class 2yo form have a greater chance of improving over the winter?
As someone points out below, **** Turpin went mighty close just recently.
As someone points out below, **** Turpin went mighty close just recently.
Glad I have read this now 
With Most Improved you have a horse who placed in a Group 1 when the Foaling stats tell you he was not quite ready for it. Fastforward 6 months and he has been smashed off the boards by connections.
Call me a pocket talker but this has to be a big positive,logically.
With Most Improved you have a horse who placed in a Group 1 when the Foaling stats tell you he was not quite ready for it. Fastforward 6 months and he has been smashed off the boards by connections.
Call me a pocket talker but this has to be a big positive,logically.
Rodrigo de Triano won the 2000 Guineas in 1992, he was foaled on the 27th of May, so it is not impossible for a May foal to win the Guineas just unlikely.
Camelot cruises home for the system ;)
French Fifteen would have qualified too...
Bad Guineas though...
Onwards, here's this year:
Dawn Approach: 23rd April
Cristoforo Colombo: 9th March
Toronado: 20th Feb
Mars: 24th Feb
Moohaajim: 28th Feb
Olympic Glory: 27th March
George Vancouver: 17th March
Ghurair: 3rd Feb
Style Vendome: 25th Feb
Van Der Neer 1st March
Tawhid: 26th Feb
Dundonnell: 30th Jan
Havana Gold: 13rd April
Steeler: 12th March
Lines of Battle: 20th March
Mutin: 16th March
So yeah, er... Lay the favourite!
French Fifteen would have qualified too...
Bad Guineas though...
Onwards, here's this year:
Dawn Approach: 23rd April
Cristoforo Colombo: 9th March
Toronado: 20th Feb
Mars: 24th Feb
Moohaajim: 28th Feb
Olympic Glory: 27th March
George Vancouver: 17th March
Ghurair: 3rd Feb
Style Vendome: 25th Feb
Van Der Neer 1st March
Tawhid: 26th Feb
Dundonnell: 30th Jan
Havana Gold: 13rd April
Steeler: 12th March
Lines of Battle: 20th March
Mutin: 16th March
So yeah, er... Lay the favourite!
I was at Newmarket when Rodrigo won his Guineas,and my birthday is May 27th.Therefore i backed Alnasr Alwasheek(Stoute's i think)despite all my mates saying you must back Rodrigo.
I will get over it one day,the same way i will get over Garrison Savannah in the National and Direct Route getting done by Edredon in the QM.
I hope that day comes soon.
I will get over it one day,the same way i will get over Garrison Savannah in the National and Direct Route getting done by Edredon in the QM.
I hope that day comes soon.
late born foals grow more quickly. that isn't a good thing because rapid growth leads to more developmental problems - but when they come out straight and stay that way then you can dismiss the foaling date completely.
anyone who can say Air Force Blue is a lay for some reason due to his foaling date, after witnessing what he's done in the last three Group1s, has absolutely no clue about equine physiology, nevermind statistical inference.
anyone who can say Air Force Blue is a lay for some reason due to his foaling date, after witnessing what he's done in the last three Group1s, has absolutely no clue about equine physiology, nevermind statistical inference.
I agree. Perhaps this stat has some relevance but it depends on the individual horse.
Air force blue, if he fails to win the guineas won't be because of maturity. When he ran in the coventry, he was a big baby. He's become a man since then, and if anything he'll improve more over the winter. So in his case if anything, it's in his favour that he's a late foal. More improvement to come.
It's just the price that is cuckoo, 6-4.
Air force blue, if he fails to win the guineas won't be because of maturity. When he ran in the coventry, he was a big baby. He's become a man since then, and if anything he'll improve more over the winter. So in his case if anything, it's in his favour that he's a late foal. More improvement to come.
It's just the price that is cuckoo, 6-4.
ffs
ffs 11 Oct 15 05:23 Joined: 27 Oct 07 | Topic/replies: 699 | Blogger: ffs's blog
late born foals grow more quickly. that isn't a good thing because rapid growth leads to more developmental problems - but when they come out straight and stay that way then you can dismiss the foaling date completely.
anyone who can say Air Force Blue is a lay for some reason due to his foaling date, after witnessing what he's done in the last three Group1s, has absolutely no clue about equine physiology, nevermind statistical inference.
statistical inference - big words for a brainless mug
ffs 11 Oct 15 05:23 Joined: 27 Oct 07 | Topic/replies: 699 | Blogger: ffs's blog
late born foals grow more quickly. that isn't a good thing because rapid growth leads to more developmental problems - but when they come out straight and stay that way then you can dismiss the foaling date completely.
anyone who can say Air Force Blue is a lay for some reason due to his foaling date, after witnessing what he's done in the last three Group1s, has absolutely no clue about equine physiology, nevermind statistical inference.
statistical inference - big words for a brainless mug
lewisham ranger 12 Oct 15 12:10 Joined: 08 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 968 | Blogger: lewisham ranger's blog
I agree. Perhaps this stat has some relevance but it depends on the individual horse.
Air force blue, if he fails to win the guineas won't be because of maturity. When he ran in the coventry, he was a big baby. He's become a man since then, and if anything he'll improve more over the winter. So in his case if anything, it's in his favour that he's a late foal. More improvement to come.
It's just the price that is cuckoo, 6-4.
another moron
But, but, but ...
... it was its draw in stall one that won it for him.
... it was its draw in stall one that won it for him.
Oct 10, 2015 -- 3:45PM, Charlton2005 wrote:
13th May 2013Lay of the yeargll all
so much time on your hands you drag up threads this old !? - jesus what a loser, I bet people love you !!
took me 30 seconds to search for it
you lose by any chance
you lose by any chance
I said 6-4 was a shocking price.
Which part of my post makes me a moron you ****?
Which part of my post makes me a moron you ****?
So in his case if anything, it's in his favour that he's a late foal.
every piece of soundly researched opinion on here says the complete opposite, hence you are either uneducated or a moron, i'll guess the latter and a loser to boot.
every piece of soundly researched opinion on here says the complete opposite, hence you are either uneducated or a moron, i'll guess the latter and a loser to boot.
You've long been one of the nastier posters on the forum, an embittered bully to boot
Given he beat the second last year hands down when using your logic he should have been immature, and has been beaten out of sight this time around, anyone with half a braincell (which patently you lack) could work out that his defeat wasn't down to being a late foal.
What an absolute retard you truly are.
Given he beat the second last year hands down when using your logic he should have been immature, and has been beaten out of sight this time around, anyone with half a braincell (which patently you lack) could work out that his defeat wasn't down to being a late foal.
What an absolute retard you truly are.
Apr 30, 2016 -- 5:05PM, Charlton2005 wrote:
took me 30 seconds to search for ityou lose by any chance
so you spent another 30 seconds just to show how little you have to do .. funny that .. I'd say go get a life but I imagine everyone who knows you says that constantly, so I'll refrain.
yep a retard that managed to back winners at 8/1, 7/1 and 6/1 in the same race!
how did you do?
how did you do?
I actually like you Charlton and your contribution to the forum, it's great to have such a complete imbecile to laugh at.
ffs 30 Apr 16 17:24 Joined: 27 Oct 07 | Topic/replies: 703 | Blogger: ffs's blog
Apr 30, 2016 -- 5:05PM, Charlton2005 wrote:
took me 30 seconds to search for ityou lose by any chance
so you spent another 30 seconds just to show how little you have to do .. funny that .. I'd say go get a life but I imagine everyone who knows you says that constantly, so I'll refrain.
i took the extra 30 seconds in order to demonstrate to the rest of the forum who to trust, and more importantly, who not to.
Jesus F Christ -- Charlton ... did you back a winner !!?? , of a horse-race ??? ... OMFG I never heard of such a thing, what are your secrets
Charlton is just a nasty embittered troll, should have chucked off the forum years ago, if they actually had standards.
Sad loser with zero mates I expect and a chip on his shoulder the size of the rowley mile.
Jog on little man.
Sad loser with zero mates I expect and a chip on his shoulder the size of the rowley mile.
Jog on little man.
lewisham ranger 30 Apr 16 17:21 Joined: 08 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 970 | Blogger: lewisham ranger's blog
You've long been one of the nastier posters on the forum, an embittered bully to boot
if you read the thread in order you'll that my comment was bland and not aimed at anyone. ffs then comes on and implied that i was clueless. so who is the bully?
You've long been one of the nastier posters on the forum, an embittered bully to boot
if you read the thread in order you'll that my comment was bland and not aimed at anyone. ffs then comes on and implied that i was clueless. so who is the bully?
Charlton2005 30 Apr 16 17:25 Joined: 25 Aug 05 | Topic/replies: 4,622 | Blogger: Charlton2005's blog
yep a retard that managed to back winners at 8/1, 7/1 and 6/1 in the same race!
how did you do?
yep a retard that managed to back winners at 8/1, 7/1 and 6/1 in the same race!
how did you do?
You called me a moron, for no particular reason other than you could, (even though I already stated I thought the fav was a terrible price)
but hardly surprising coming from you, you've always been a nasty piece of work.
but hardly surprising coming from you, you've always been a nasty piece of work.
Lewisham, you wrote that you agreed with the person that had called me clueless and then followed that up with a comment that evidenced yourself as clueless? what other deduction can i make?
Oh so your ego is so big, that you can't take criticism? Yeah sounds about right
Bit insecure perhaps
Bit insecure perhaps
please, you're mixing things up here, the bottom line is, i point these things out so that the next time you make a comment people might think twice as to it's validity. the argument you are now making is related to my point that i was not the one that began the unpleasantness.
Apr 30, 2016 -- 5:47PM, Charlton2005 wrote:
please, you're mixing things up here, the bottom line is, i point these things out so that the next time you make a comment people might think twice as to it's validity. the argument you are now making is related to my point that i was not the one that began the unpleasantness.
"I'd say if you called Coolmore today wanting to book one of their top stallions for next March or April you'd be politely turned down, because they'll be fully booked by their preferred breeders......but July/ August and they'll be much more accomodating. The breeders certainly think that late foals at at a disadvantage in their classic year, hence the prevelance of foals born in late Jan, through Feb and into early March fetching the heftiest prices at the sales."
Here's the thing, and why foaling dates are topical - it's actually not because of what they do by the time they are 2yo, especially not 3yo, but how they turn out as foals when they are being sold.
Yes, it's undoubted that breeders pressure studs and their own broodmares to get an early(ish) foal, but mostly because it will sell better. That's really that, and that's from my experience of breeding horses to sell and to race.
Also, just to cast real variance on the statistical power of the (supposed) result, the weather and hence the development is very variable from year to year so comparing across years isn't comparing like with like.
If early born foals win more than they should, all other things equal, I imagine it's simply because better breeders and broodmares get booked in earlier if they want to.
and that's got nothing at all to do with Charlton, but this accurate comment:
"I'd say if you called Coolmore today wanting to book one of their top stallions for next March or April you'd be politely turned down, because they'll be fully booked by their preferred breeders......but July/ August and they'll be much more accomodating. The breeders certainly think that late foals at at a disadvantage in their classic year, hence the prevelance of foals born in late Jan, through Feb and into early March fetching the heftiest prices at the sales."
"I'd say if you called Coolmore today wanting to book one of their top stallions for next March or April you'd be politely turned down, because they'll be fully booked by their preferred breeders......but July/ August and they'll be much more accomodating. The breeders certainly think that late foals at at a disadvantage in their classic year, hence the prevelance of foals born in late Jan, through Feb and into early March fetching the heftiest prices at the sales."
well ... accurate in the first part at least ... access to sires is v competitive early on.
But then you have from year to year,
early Spring / late Spring, good Summer / bad Summer ... that has a huge effect on how a foal will do,
e.g. a late foal after a v good Spring will likely be v good as the mare will have done well, and could be at an advantage to an early born foal in fact ... there's a lot of variance, the final few weeks of a mare grazing good grass with the right nutrients imparts a huge amount to a foal in utero rather than at hand.
early Spring / late Spring, good Summer / bad Summer ... that has a huge effect on how a foal will do,
e.g. a late foal after a v good Spring will likely be v good as the mare will have done well, and could be at an advantage to an early born foal in fact ... there's a lot of variance, the final few weeks of a mare grazing good grass with the right nutrients imparts a huge amount to a foal in utero rather than at hand.
this charlton 2005 numpty has just latched on to an argument someone has made (might be a legitimate one, who knows)
and tried to make it his own.
guy hasn't got the intelligence to create his own ideas about the game
then claims he backed three winners in the same race- (if that's even possible) don't recall him putting that up before the race, so one for the aftertiming thread!
and tried to make it his own.
guy hasn't got the intelligence to create his own ideas about the game
then claims he backed three winners in the same race- (if that's even possible) don't recall him putting that up before the race, so one for the aftertiming thread!
Lewisham, I think Charlton is a wind-up merchant, not to be taken too seriously or you play his game,
Thanks to Kincsem for the amazing comment above :D
Thanks to Kincsem for the amazing comment above :D
I was all over AFB....I should really stick to my guns 
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539