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Long looking course...7667 yds....4 pars 3s shortest one is 199yds,longest is 287 yds!!!...finishing hole 630 yds par 5.....some nice pics around the net....looks a cracker....
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fancy
lawrie luiten donaldson they are early picks will prob change them around, also fancy hason but cannot back him at 14s when really i just back him for his place bet as i cant see him winning too many tournaments |
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My 4 against the field are :
Colsaerts Donaldson Willett Otto |
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287 yard par 3, nice
 read somewhere that they are expecting it to be windy as well, that should make for some great scoring. |
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Cant believe the exchanges that have gone in here already on Poulter...11.5!...still 14s with some books..i think his mindset is in for the Ballentines next week not this...
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Colsaerts sure to be on the premises but he is a dodgepot at the best of times ( one win in about 12 years !!!! albeit in China & very impressive) but that was a different course and the added pressure of defending his title may prove beyond him. Two Asian players that interest me are Dae-Hyun Kim & Chang-Won Han. Kim hits it miles which will be a big advantage round here & he knows how to win when in the mix....MC in Jakarta lto but he has shown form after MC's previously & at 400+ on here is worth a speculative few shillings. Han played very well in this event last year & was 2nd after round 1...was still well in it after round 3 but shot 74 on Sunday which dropped him to 16th but it was still a good effort for his 2nd event on tour. Had a few quid @ 1000.
Much to my regret this past 20 months or so...am an Eddie Molinari fan  he may come back to form but is it worth chancing @ 40/1 ??? his stats are awful this year but I'd be sick as the proverbial if he went and won unbacked. Only other bet will be on Jaco Van Zyl...surely he will win this year ??? or is he going to be another George Coetzee ??? this course may be long enough to catch him out but he finds plenty of greens so a small bet. Good luck to all , Alfie |
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nice summary king alf, well done and may have a few quid on your outsiders from the asian tour.
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Alf, been following Eddi too but he isnt finishing off good iron play, plus how hurt is that wrist? No idea.
As for Jaco, he doesnt hit the ball far enough for here, wait till he bugggers off back on the Sunshine Tour. The winner? No fkng idea |
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i noticed a wind farm in some of the course photos so may a swell play safe and go for in form paul lawrie 28/1....
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Anthony Wall
Steve Webster Felipe Aguilar Peter Whiteford Fabrizio Zanotti |
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The European tour travels to China again and pitches up on yet another new course so basically I have concentrated on players in form who are confirmed winners.
Hennie Otto now has two European Tour wins and twelve other wins to his name so he knows how to get the job done and he is definitely in top form finishing 5/9/7 in his last three starts. Whilst he has not much recent form in China or indeed Asia (he has very few starts in the area) but if you go back to 2003 he was 2nd in Hong Kong. Jose Manuel Lara also has two European tour wins and his first came next door in Hong Kong. Like Otto he is also in top form finishing 4/c/9/5 in his last four starts in European events. It is not the strongest event ever to take place on tour which should suit the Spaniard. I have gone for one player at a somewhat bigger price in the shape of young Korean Bio Kim. He has plenty of top form in his native South Korea but has also finished 5/c/1 in his three starts in China. He didn't play that badly on the PGA tour last year having been the youngest ever player to go through all three stages of the PGA Q school and now finds himself on the Nationwide Tour. He has had a fairly slow start to his year but last week he was 5th having closed with a fantastic 63 in California and I am not sure he should be three figures. |
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Poulter is good fav in this i think....ok in the wind, often does well in this part of the world and coming off a decent Masters...
adding Paul Lawrie and Paul Casey..... |
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Nice post as always TMM. I would be a little wary of Hennie this week though. He was having problems with his back on Saturday and although he did well to finish in the top 10 I do wonder if playing 20 odd holes on Sunday might just have taken it out of him a little. Agree that he is in form however - and the South Africans in general are all playing well at the moment.
I do like the look of Lara however. A model of consistancy of late, and he 'Tweeted' last week that his game is almost spot on, which judging by his recent results is surely the case. At around 85/1 he looks worth a bet. Im also on Damien McGrane @120 - more so because of his second place finish in Morocco than his victory at this tournament a few years ago. I thought he played some lovely golf in Morocco and did not really deserve to lose but for an inspired Michael Hoey. True the course he won his China Open on was different to this, but he obviously plays well in Asia as he has some other good finishes without threatening the top 10. Just think that if he has retained his form of a few weeks ago he is a little over priced. Also backed Cabrella-Bello at 40s and Grace at 75s. First named played well last weekend and has been an improved player this year, and Grace almost got it going on Saturday in Malaysia in much the same way as he did in Morocco. He is a talent who just needs to improve his course management a little to pick up some other victories to add to the back to back wins earlier this year. Lastly had a few quid on Richard Finch - for no other reason than a gut instinct. Good luck all. |
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hoping the 13 year old Tian Lang Guan will wipe the floor with these mugs 1000/1 looks a big price
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Your name suits you..
 ^^^^^^^^ |
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had to go a few quid on monty to win and top ten ......:)
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No idea on this so taken the longer hitters.
Fisher Lara Dubission Wattel Gonnet Edfors Jamieson Gonzlez Horne Nilsson Zions |
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Added Noren he looks great value when compared to Oleson
Also JB Kruger Just looking down the list there has been some big price crashes on the bombers like Dubuisson and Gonzalez |
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Traded
Ian Poulter Francesco Molinari Paul Lawrie Tom Lewis Johan Edfors Laid Peter Hanson Nicolas Colsaerts Shane Lowry (terrible value compare to better players with better prices) |
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Topped up on Stevie Webster. Added a wee bit of George Murray at a big price.
Who knows ?Par threes on this course are a joke. Not a fan personally. I like to see at least one shortie. |
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backed
branden grace 60 jose manuel lara 90 danny willet 50 steve webster 150 |
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Michael Hoey is a ridiculous price comapared to some at lower odds. Has to be backed.
Poulter can't possibly win on a course as long as this.... |
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Kenneth ferrie should go well hits it very low and plays windy conditions well.
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Traded on Dyson
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Looks as if short hitters may as well not turn up and this course and weather could produce anything so went for a few long hitting outsiders who should handle the wind:
Peter Whiteford Gary Boyd Steven O'Hara all to trade hopefully |
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Looking at Poulters twitter he seems to be suffering from jet lag which can take a couple of days to get out of your system, Going to take Peter Hanson to win the 3 ball which also includes Molinari who i think will find this course too long.
To win the event i have backed; Peter Hanson (obvious reasons) Paul Casey (looking at his twitter he seems very happy with his game and has been working very hard on his putting, 40+ could look very big for arguably the most talented player in the field) gl  |
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All this big hitters long hitters is rubbish...hitting the ball 20 to 40 yds further does`nt win tournements...
Accuracy is the key not distance i believe......and yes KP Poulter can win this. |
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Masch...Poulter is always on about jet lag....anyway he posted that 24 hours ago........if he is suffering then so is Hanson surely, plus most of the field....
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Masch... Peter Hanson is not that much longer than Molly.
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thats why i put it takes a couple of days to get out of your system.
Hanson has been here all week i believe, he has been with Per Ericcson who i believe from reading the European tour website runs all Volvo Championship events so he is feeling fairly comfortable out here. The jetlag that Hanson may have suffered has been and gone as mentioned above he's been here i day longer than Poulter. You may say Poulter always bangs on about jetlag but how has he actually played once he's mentioned it ? Just looking back at a few of his results he plays very wll in asia after he's had a week of getting use to the time change, conditions etc. He is coming back to a bit of form no doubt and he is a classy player but will take Hanson they way he's playing currently over Poulter at the prices, Hansons long game is far better and thats a massive advantage around here. |
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my jet lag is at its worst after 3 or 4 days, these should be used to it by now, you can get jet lagged travelling across usa, if they play badly its a decent exuse for them
good luck everyone, i've just done wattel more hope than anything else, but he seems a decent striker and hits it a decent distance |
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Fair points masch,we will see...good luck with your bets...i just think Poults will be up for this...
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I've laid Poulter and Hanson, so one of us is right. Good luck.
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good luck golfnut
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aftertiming incoming lads.......... the jetlag didnt seem to bother louis last week !
paul lawrie @ 36 cab-bello @ 34 sit and see how it plays out |
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An Aussie that could possibly go well is Aaron Townsend...worth a couple of quid at 999/1....
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maggot, i just read your last comment in regards to Hanson not being much longer than Molly. you cant really believe that can you ? If both players hit their best drive Hanson has 15 - 20 yards on Moli.
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Well it's not quite a pin job but i don't think this is a tournament you can be too dogmatic about.It would appear that it will be windy this week which has to be taken into account,the length of the course(although it won't be getting played from the tips)will certainly help the big hitters but i think the critical factor is that due to cold weather in the lead upto the tournament the rough has only had 2 and a half weeks to grow.I also had a look at European Tour Weekly earlier and that was the thing that struck me.Most of the rough would appear to be still dormant and therefore unless you hit a serious wide,the lies in the semi rough are not going to be penal.So the guys who generally hit it down the middle week in week out will not really be gaining anything this week.Windy conditions and long hitting are two factors i normally associate with The Qatar Masters and although i could be completely barking up the wrong tree,i'm going to use that tournament as a comparison to what could happen here.
JB Kruger-Long,hits a lot of greens and but for a dreadful 3rd round last week could've been coming in here on a better finish than that of 11th. Victor Dubuisson-Not sure about the beard but had a decent finish in a windy Sicily a few weeks back and had a terrific final last round in horrific conditions at Bro Hof last season.Long,hits a lot of greens and two top 10 finishes in consecutive years on a long,windswept course in Qatar give me confidence that he could have a good week. Romain Wattel-Another guy that doesn't lack length and is very handy with the short stick.Seems to be highly rated by his peers and coming off a nice performance last week. Tano Goya-Has started off this season in a positive fashion and i'm always a fan of the Argentinians in the wind as they all seem to be able to manouvere a ball around a golf course,a plus for sure if the wind does indeed blow this week.Done well in a breezy Sicily and his one tour win came on the Island of Madeira where the wind tends to blow. Scott Jamieson-Coming of a terrific,if slightly inconsistent first year on tour,i think this guy has the tools to well around here.Had a reasonable finish at the breezy Sicilian Open and another of those that played well in the breeze at Qatar.Not short of the tee either,i'm hoping for a good show. Ricardo Gonzalez-Ruined a potentially very good finish last week with a horror final round but i'm not going to let that put me off what was a good performance for the first three rounds.He's another Argentinian i want to be with and another who tends to do well in Qatar.He can be very hit and miss,i'm hoping he's on a going week. Good luck to everyone having a dabble on this one! |
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violencia, jet lag doesn't affect everybody, most yes but some people can just take to it. Poulter obviously can't as he keeps banging on about it.
You seen what happened to Schwartzel last week, i believe he arrived tuesday in Malaysia and he played great round 1, but as donny says it can usually take a few days to take affect on the body) and on day 2 he was very poor. It's all Opinion, but even if Poulter wasn't suffering from jetlag i would still have took Hanson this week. gl |
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Maybe, Masch, but Hanson is not a long hitter. Probably ten yards longer than Molly, which isn't really much.
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