Hello Crowseye and no, I dont believe I did berate anyone for playing with ew doubles. I did however, point out that the crazy bravado of having to stick rigidly to your initial 3 or 4 picks and sit tight through to the end without trading out irrespective of whether they win or not, was frankly crazy.

I have always played ew doubles for my golf betting, not yet managed an across the card win double, but when I do, I will be of the same mindset as the rest of you.

There are several decent tipsters on here and some great logic and insight applied pretty much every week, but I cant help thinking when I eview their selections after the event, that had they chosen to lay during many of those events, then they would have turned the loss that they did make, into a regular profit.

In no way am I suggesting that my own thoughts or policy is better than the next guy, but I know for sure that the beauty of an exchange is to utilise it to make profit and laying in play is a big part of that.

Most people 'trade well with superb judgement' after the event.( see Stenson in The Masters)

By the irish Open............I hope Keegan doesn't go to Portmarnock,he will find it very lonely there this year.

Wrong again Daft.
Actually my Palmer pick is leading.

you boys can hang to your Palmer picks and no doubt lick your wounds on the final day and think of what might have been. I will have a tidy and regular profit yet again from trading out on my picks and if any of them win then that will be a nice wee bonus. Life would be boring of we were all the same.

As much as Heinz is a pleb, i fear golfdaft is in the same league.

Heinz, no value on your opinion, your an idiot

So let me get this straight.  Your mantra is always, 'take a profit at the earliest opportunity'.  However today you managed to resist laying Stenson at all the prices traded from 200 downwards, waiting until he traded at 15.  You then inform us of this shortly after he takes an 8 at the last and drifts back out to 130.

Hopefully you will display a similar level of psychic ability to escape from your Westwood lay!



daft,this will remain one of the all time great aftertimes on the Golf Forum !!

BMW Championships – West Course – Wentworth


The top three in the world rankings and a stellar supporting field and with the weather set fair, we should have a great week. The sour note is the state of the course, way below what’s expected for such a flagship event, the greens are at best bumpy and there will be hard luck stories and frayed tempers because of this.

Luke Donald is in betting terms a bet to nothing, generally available around the 9/1 mark his record around here is quite simply amazing and I couldn’t put you off him, however, Although I will be backing him myself, still believe that there is better value elsewhere, especially if you are a back to lay supporter.

Anders Hansen has won around here twice before in 2002 and in 2007, he can continue the five-year trend by winning again in 2012. He is a player who can win when seemingly lout of form and he has shown frustration with his game already this year, however, he is well rested and very focussed for this week and around the 60/1 mark represents great value.

Another 60/1 shot on my shortlist is the Scot Paul Lawrie. He has raised his game to another level this year and he is determined to make the Ryder Cup team, a win here would guarantee him that honour and he continue his run of form with a strong showing here at Wentworth.

Two years ago and in the first year of the renowned course changes, Chris Wood made a bold bid to land the event. His final round 77 dropped him down the leaderboard, a 72 would have taken him to victory. Fast and bumpy conditions suit his game well and that’s what he will get here this week and he is a huge price at 220/1.

Given the “lottery” style conditions, I will also be adding a very big priced outsider to my list and the pin has fallen on Peter Lawrie. The Irishman has shown glimmers of form in the early season and at the huge price of  360/1, I will have a few quid on and hope he becomes a decent lay.


Crowne Plaza Invitational – Fort Worth – Texas


The usual suspects figure at the head of the betting, however, most of them have poor records playing over this course in the past and it might pay to look deeper into the field this week in search of much better value.

David Toms won this event last year and it came hot on the heels of his playoff loss to KJ Choi at Sawgrass . Tom’s is a decent price again this week and although I expect him to play well here, he may be a top ten selection rather than a genuine contender.

This course yielded some sparkling first round scores last year and I expect some good back to lay opportunities if this can be replicated this time around.

Chez Reavie finished tied fifth last year and opened with a 62, he is a huge price and I will be backing him with a view to a good lay position. He also enjoys the steamy hot conditions in which many others struggle. Take the 330/1

Next up for me will be Bo Van Pelt. He closed last year with a best of the day 65 and took third spot, he has a genuine chance of winning this week and he will carry much confidence and great memories. You can back Bo at 30/1

Australian Aaron Baddeley skipped this event last year and has shown patchy form this year, but as all golf followers know, he always remains a man to be wary of as when he clicks, he delivers. I understand that his build up has seen him flushing the ball as well as he ever has so if the putter behaves this week, he could give us a real run for our money and at very tasty prices. Baddeley is at 110/1

A Swede finished in the top five last time at Crowne Plaza and I expect another one to feature in this event. The rookie Jonas Blixt has enjoyed a great start to his PGA career and the college graduate can carry his strong form of last week into this week’s event. He plays without fear and although this can bring bogeys, he is very capable of birdie streaks and I anticipate another good event for him and he remains a value-betting proposition. Im on at 80/1

lol you definitely have a knack.

Well played on the lesser Lawrie

Bo Van Pelt advised at 30/1 currently 7.2 and lying second, an easy trade to cover all this weeks bets or take profits, or sit and have fun.

none of it, I havent traded. Reason being is I like the look of Bo and I feel he will contend at the weekend and get much shorter. I will be hoping to trade out at around 3.

I wouldnt go that far

whether you stick or twist can only ever be determined in two ways in my view, you have a pre determined formula and stick to it, or you apply some gut feel, im in the latter camp. There is no mystery to what I do or what I say I do, I can see the way the forum works that there are afew ascorbic guys who seem to enjoy slagging off and looking to pick holes.

I havent laid anything yet in the Crowne Plaza, outside of BVP there was no lay yet anyway and as I said earlier, I really fancy BVP to go very close this week.

As I have said before on here, I back all my selections in ew doubles and I have to factor this in when choosing when to lay or when to stay, I have no science and am always looking to learn.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

needing BVP and Jonas Blixt to gewt placed and give me some very tasty ew doubles.

ISPS Handa Wales Open – Celtic Manor 31st May to 3rd June


Lets not get too carried away with what was a fantastic week at Wentworth for us last week, where we backed Luke to win and had tasty back to lay bets on Paul and Peter Lawrie at fancy prices. This week is much tougher and to a certain extent previous form at The Wales Open counts for little as this year the players will be on the 2010 course.

Despite his great showing last week, I will be deserting Paul Lawrie this week at the very time when others will be tipping him up. Its not that I don’t anticipate another fine showing from the Scot, he should grab another top ten finish, the problem is that he is a fraction of the value he was last week and consequently, I will be looking elsewhere for my back to lay value.

First on my list is Anders Hansen, he was travelling strongly last week at the BMW only to throw in a snowman on the 18th on the second day, it meant he narrowly missed the cut and he was steaming.

He still represents genuine class in this field and he enjoys the relaxed atmosphere at Celtic Manor Resort, inspiring him to a top three finish last year at this event. He can be backed with confidence at current odds of 32/1.

Next up for me will be the tiny South African, Richard Sterne. Nearly two years out with injury has seen his ranking slip and he plays here under a medical exemption this week. Last weeks fine showing at Wentworth followed 5 previous missed cuts but don’t let that put you off. He is a quality ball striker and has good length from the tee, his confidence is up and he should show well for us at a tasty 65/1

Four time European Tour winner Ricardo Gonzales has been in the money in 7 of his ten events this year including top tens in big money events at Qatar and in China, he tied Westwood last week at Wentworth finishing 33rd. With no great premium on accuracy (he only hits 50% of fairways), his length off the tee will serve him well and he averages around 300 yards and has done for most of his career. He is currently available at 80/1 and I will be a backing him with a view to laying at much shorter prices across the weekend.

I also like the look of Johan Edfors this week. The Swede also enjoys this venue and he played well in parts last week at the BMW and it looks like he might be about to hit some consistent form. Well priced at 110/1

I rarely make more than four selections at any tournament, however, off the back of a great back to lay on Peter Lawrie last week at an advised 360/1, I am tempted to have a dabble on what many will consider a rank outsider, Peter Hedblom. The Swede followed five missed cuts with a great finish at Wentworth last week and he looked to have lost a deal of weight. He was right in contention going into the weekend and his final two round of 74 pushed him back down the field. He is very positive about this week and at crazy odds of 210/1, he just might give us a real run for our money.

Liquidity is poor for this event at the time I have put my thoughts together so maybe wait until Wednesday before you place your bets.

Memorial Tournament – Muirfield Village –Ohio

A truly amazing field with all the top draw cards in action, Rory, Tiger, Phil, Luke etc etc, but for me, the true back to lay value lies much further down the pack.

Im not really a big Jim Furyk fan, however, I cant overlook what for me are his very obvious chances. Another strong showing last week tells me that he is ready to strike and there is a good chance this flagship event will see JF over the winning line. I will be backing him at the current 32/1.

For my high value bets im looking deep down the odds table and my next selection has not been in anything like the form he was last year. Mark Wilson has the perfect game for Muirfield and the word is he fancies his chances this week which gives me the confidence to include him , he is currently showing at 150/1, but may get bigger nearer the event.

At even bigger odds the enegmatic Vijay Singh can be backed at 300/1. He is showing much better form and he has fond memories around this track and if the putter works as it has been doing recently, he can contend and he is a great back to lay proposition.

My final pick is an even bigger price at a current 320/1. Charlie WI wont be most peoples idea of the winner and I guess I cant argue with that. However, remember, we are looking for value and at that price he has to be worth a dabble. He is a very capable player and contends often in big events most seasons, he does of course struggle to get over the winning line. I can see him hanging around the leaderboard for long enough for us to make good profits.

I hope my guys are in position for me to take profits before the last day and maybe re invest in the potential winner as we go into Sunday.

Good luck.

I agree NorwichRob, no doubt far more stress in trying to time your trade outs correctly and although its gratifying when you get it right, more often than not it can make you look a fool. As I have said in previous threads, I always place ew across the card doubles on my selections at a conventional bookmaker and I am sure a big payout will land some day soon. As you correctly said, the knack of laying on exchanges is very difficult and I, like you am always trying to leave as much as possible on each selection for as long as possible whilst at the same time maximising profits, an almost impossible trick to pull off without great luck. Thanks for your comments.

Your safe this week Heinz, I got my win with Luke last week. It was atough week at Wentworth for all the players and that plus the travel, I really dont see him contending this week. Jonas and BVP were a real downer for me as either one would have given me very decent ew double returns. I may keep my thoughts to myself this week as the show unfolds.

Be lucky.

nice price, I am sure his maiden win isnt far away, still too many bogeys. Maybe one of those easy resort course pro ams

Memorial - traded out on Furyk at 10.5, leaving Vijay in the hope that he does well today and I can trade him too for a tidy profit.

Wales Open - Expect a real volatility at the top of the leaderboard today, weather shocking and the course is a monster under these conditions. Believe me this is still wide open and I will be holding on for Sterne to get very close before I consirer a lay with him. Also looking to bet Sterne and Bjorn to finish top 5 and top ten.