Strange week so far, didnt lay Paul Lawrie when he got to minus 7, should have done, bad decision but I never saw him making a handful of bogeys on his way home. Only got Gmac to give me a realistic return now in the Irish. Choi was a disaster in Maryland, but very good profits from Garrigus who looks primed for a serious finish at Congressional.

Had a few quid on Gary Orr at 60 s in Ireland and may well pick another for the final day depending on how Orr and Gmac go today.

Alstom Open De France
Le Golf Nacional
Paris, France
05 – 08 July 2012


This event which is the oldest national open in continental Europe, was won last year by home boy Thomas Levet and indeed it has thrown up some surprise winners over the years, John Bickerton, Philip Golding and Graham Storm have all landed this in the last ten years. The youngest winner was Sevy at 20 years of age back in 1970.

It’s a fabulous golf course and one that the players rate very highly, with wet and changeable weather forecast over the first two days, but calmer, sunnier weather for the weekend, we should have a fantastic event with many betting opportunities.

Interestingly, the players will be chasing a total prize fund of less than 3 million Euros, back in 2006; the prize purse was over 4 million, a real sign of the times.

As always, previous course form is important but must be tempered by a host of other factors, most notably current form and of course, current motivation.

I couldn’t put anyone off backing Lee Westwood, I always feel that Lee has more chance of winning as the course gets tougher and with the winning score set to be around the 10 under par mark, Westwood doesn’t have to deliver a shed load of birdies to win here, less pressure on his suspect putting. At current odds of 7.8 I will be leaving him alone on day one, but may well back him if he is around 4 or 5 shots out of the day one lead as his price will drift to a more attractive mark.

Martin Kaymer will be a popular choice after winning this 2 years ago and was right in the hunt last year too before falling away, but his form remains sketchy and with a very poor showing in his home event recently I will be overlooking him.

My main selection this week is Justin Rose. The US based Englishman has developed into a truly world class talent. He sits top of the Race To Dubai, 9th in the World Rankings, has won 5 times on the European Tour ( not bad for a part time player ), won the WGC Cadillac earlier this year and was only edged out at Wentworth by an incredible performance from Luke Donald. Rose is determined to cement his position in the Ryder Cup team for later this year and he knows as an American based player, that he needs to do it via the money list, rather than as a captains pick. At current odds of around 18/1 on Betfair, he represents outstanding value and I will be having a very large each way bet on him.

Next up for me is the new star on the European Tour, Nicolas Colsaerts, currently trading at a massive 42/1. The World Matchplay winner has missed two out of his last three cuts, but there are logical reasons why we shouldn’t let that put us off him this week. The BMW at Wentworth came the week after he delivered the World Matchplay so he can be forgiven a lacklustre event. He then put together three great rounds at the US Open, just dropping away on the final day and then he also missed the cut last week at Portrush, however, he made a great start in shooting an opening day 67 and his day two 78 was more about an inability to play in some awful conditions, if he can stay in contention over the first two days here, then I will be very confident about his chances.

Rafa Cabrera Bello is my third choice this week, he almost landed the big prize last week at Portrush and has been in great form most of the season, he is now a seasoned pro and he can mix it with the big boys, proving that when finishing third in The World Matchplay a few weeks ago. His self-belief is very high and at 48/1 he is fairly priced, he is good each way value.

Sitting in fourth place in the Race To Dubai is South African Brandon Grace. The two-time winner is massively over priced this week at 85/1. He has been a great addition to the European Tour, has a super short game and is long off the tee, he also have the confidence that if he is close to the lead on the final day, that he can step up to the plate and deliver a win, back him each way.

A Frenchman would love to win his home event and I suggest the best of these this week might be the new boy on the scene, swashbuckling Victor Dubuisson, the 100/1 shot may be a small fun bet.

My US PGA Preview will follow on Tuesday evening at 10pm.

If sevy won this in 1970 he would have won it as a 14-year-old Golfdaft.

Frames - This was the betting profile of a pro punter who sells his information for weekly and monthly fees, I hasten to add that I was reviewing the free information on his site !

a sensational piece of information

Barclays now about to take an internal strategic review of sponsorship and spending, brace yourself world of golf.

Very importnat day ahead in France, weather looks tricky, wind is gusting and the forecast isnt great. Rose has started slowly and I am hopeful that Rafa and Nicolas can get me right into the hunt. Vijay has dome us proud in the USA for now and I still have high hopes of a significant ew double if things come together over the weekend.

If Vijay can consolidate and not spook as the first round leader, he can go on and finish top five at least.

Fingers crossed.

Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open
Castle Stuart Golf Links
Inverness
Scotland

12 July – 15 July


With this event scheduled the week before The Open Championship, it always increases the quality of the field and this week is no different with several of the more prominent PGA Tour stars on show. Phil, The Big Easy, Badds and even the amusing Kevin (pull the godamn trigger) Na.

Last year was the first time The Scottish Open had been played over the Castle Stuart Links and of course the prize was lifted by an in form Luke Donald who coasted to a 4 shot win in a rain shortened 54 hole event. I have several contacts at Castle Stuart this week and let me tell you, as I compile this piece, it is absolutely hammering down and with torrential rain forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with little improvement across the weekend, the organisers currently fear another shortened event.

One thing is for certain, irrespective of the weather, there will be a barrage of birdies and eagles and if the wind stays away then very low scoring is anticipated.

I don’t often look to the favourites in a golf event and the last time I did it was to back Luke Donald in a straight win at the BMW at Wentworth, where he duly delivered. Luke is here to defend his title and in my view, the current 8.8 on Betfair is an absolute steal, you can also get 8/1 with Skybet. I will be having my maximum each way with several firms and backing him to win on Betfair.

Angry Scottish skies wont deter Nicolas Colsaerts, who came pretty close last week at The Alstom, I cant desert him right now as he looks primed for yet another top five finish and although nothing like the value he was earlier in the season at a current 25/1 the Belgian who finished tied 3rd here last year could easily fill the runner up spot to majestic Luke.

There will be lots of interest in an Argentinean player this week, Andres Romero, but my attention is focussed on his fellow countryman Angel Cabrera. The US Open and Masters winner tied third here last year and match the best on his day, he is also a good wet weather player, I am on at a disrespectful 180/1.

Fresh off the home boy Andy Murray showing why he will never win Wimbledon, there will be plenty of support for the Scottish players, most notably Martin Laird and Paul Lawrie, but I will bypass them in favour of a another Celt, Paul McGinley. I would never have believed a year ago that I would be placing cash on the wee Irishman, however, his form this year and in recent weeks has been very solid. His putting can be a bit hit and miss but no doubt that when he plays links he is always in with a shout and of course he was lying in 14 at Castle Stuart last year when the tournament was cut to 54 holes and only 2 shots out of third place. He is my final bet this week and I will be taking the 95/1 on offer this morning.

If you are looking for a sentimental Braveheart bet then I would point you towards Marc Warren, some value at around 180/1.


PGA Tour updated at 6pm

good luck golfdaft,


mulroy is a player i like a lot,

hes done some travelling this year

I agree re Mulroy and the people around him believe he has the game to be a real big time player. Sometimes the weight of expectation can be too much, but usually class is often rewarded in the end so whether its this week or some time in the future I am sure he will deliver.

Thanks for the comments and best of luck this week.

The 141st Open Championship
Royal Lytham and St Annes
19th – 22nd July 


Its upon us once again, the greatest golf Major of them all and I have to confess to being full of anticipation from both a spectating and betting perspective.

Over the last few weeks I have been gearing myself up for The Open by analysing the results over the last thirty years, reviewing trends and generally getting myself comfortable with all the angles that might allow me to turn this into a very profitable week.

I have always had a fondness for Royal Lytham, in 1979 I stayed with a school friend in a bed and breakfast at nearby Blackpool and armed with season tickets for the whole week, as a 17 year old, allowed to stay away from mum and dad for the first time, it was a memorable occasion. I witnessed a young Sevy blitz Nicklaus and Crenshaw by 3 shots and the legend was born.

The owner of the b and b told me that he was the proud owner of clubs previously used by none other than Sam Snead. I challenged the authenticity of the bold statement and after a verbal tit for tat, he brought the old looking set of irons to the breakfast table. To my astonishment he re affirmed that they were the clubs belonging to Sam Snead because his name was on the sole of each iron, despite me laughing my socks off and pointing out that the name Sam Snead on the base of the irons was merely a brand name, like other brands of the day, Dunlop, Slazenger etc, he wouldn’t have it, fond memories.

As readers of my scribblings will have noted, I am not a blind follower of stats; however, I do like to take note of stats as an important element of my deliberations and I value stats even more when making decisions in the Majors. So let me throw you one or two stats to consider for this week;

1.    15 different players have won the last 15 consecutive Majors
2.    Only one Open winner in the last 30 years played outside of Europe the week before The Open – Todd Hamilton
3.    Ten of the last 12 Open Champions had won on either the European or PGA Tour in the previous 12 months. 

All very interesting but you could drive yourself nuts looking at all the tends and more importantly, you can put yourself off a winner if you start to try and shoehorn your fancies into one category or another and I wont be doing that.

My main bet for Royal Lytham is a young American who has become as well know for his terrible clothing range and adolescent facial hair as he has for his golf ability, yes, it has to be Ricky Fowler. Americans have won the last two Lytham Opens and it will be three by the time the curtain falls next Sunday. Fowler looked a natural links player when he finished fifth behind Darren Clarke last year and although Lytham is no links in the true sense of the word, it will play tight, it will be windy and there will be a premium on accuracy.
Young Ricky has come on leaps and bounds this year and his win at Quail Hollow was no surprise, he also came very close at Sawgrass and it should be noted that he made his move at the TPC when the weather was at its worst and other players were backing up. Fowler has no hang ups about the British weather and he can confound the stats and trends by landing the famous Claret Jug. I have backed Ricky at 40/1 and would advise you to take the price as Open markets usually contract as the event draws near and if you don’t like to trade then look to Paddy Power who go 7 places.

Next up for me is one of the great frustrations in the modern game, Sergio Garcia. The masterful Spaniard is blessed with the most remarkable ball striking ability, especially through his irons and this will be very significant at Lytham this week. Over the last ten years Sergio has often had the spotlight on him to deliver a Claret Jug, this year he has slipped under the radar and that suits him just fine. He sits at a not so generous 38/1 and I am already on. The bonus for me is that Sergio is drawn with Tiger and Justin Rose for the first two days, this will be an inspirational pairing for the Spaniard and will re affirm to him that he remains a major draw card.

Next on my list this year is perhaps an unlikely selection given the extreme test that Lytham will no doubt provide this week, its big Dustin Johnson, currently available at 55/1. The 17th ranked player in the world has already had 6 PGA Tour wins and despite missing much of the 2012 season with injury, he has clocked up 4 top 10s and collected the St Jude earlier in the year. He is not only about raw power and he looked at home on the links at the last Open, inexperience cost him a real chance down the stretch and he has matured significantly in the last year, rather like Fowler. He will be one of the few players who will be able to hit irons from the tee and not take the greens out of range; this will serve him well, as will his pairing with Graham McDowell.

It would be fair to say that Paddy Harrington has been in the doldrums for the last few seasons, the Dublin accountant is forever tinkering with his swing and who could forget when he died his hair blonde to try and get some gigs with Westlife !  I have avoided betting on him in any respect this year and have always felt he is a big tournament player and his game is of course best suited to The Open or the US Open, notably he came tied 4th at this years US Open. He can best be described as an attritional player and he will neither be phased by bad weather or thick rough, he is a grinder in the true sense of the word. I really like his chances and I have to say I am not too happy with the 20/1 on Betfair. I fully expect to see him end the week as top brit and with eyes on stalks, he could bag another Open.

As it’s the Open, I will be having a fifth selection and I am delighted to be including a South African in my top five, a nation who punches way above its weight in terms of top golfers and indeed Major winners. My selection may surprise you as he has yet to reach the lofty heights of a Major winner, but this could be his week. Diminutive Richard Sterne has been at Lytham all week and after a prolonged period out with injury he has played himself back to full fitness and is ready to step up and win again.

The low centre of gravity may help this week and so may his accurate and powerful long game and it should not be forgotten that prior to his back injury, which pretty much took care of 2011, Sterne was the hot player amongst the South African boys. At 330/1 he is a truly massive price.
I will be at Lytham from Tuesday and updating via the website with all the latest news direct from the course www.open4golf.com

oops, carried away a bit with Paddy, good spot, he is Irish of course, thanks.

I hope your right about Sergio, I followed him for several holes yesterday and he seemed more relaxed than in recent years, perhaps less expecation too.

Should add the Sterne put in a good shift and was striking beautifully too, looking good for a big priced run at the title.

Robert Karlsson just pulled out of The Open

Finch was always in it. He is nobody's replacement.

So the chances of Manassero getting in, go up a notch.

Someone go and kick Sandy Lyle in the nuts, and he's almost there.

Its been a bright and breezy day at Lytham and if there is no more rain ( forecast is changing by the minute )then it should be a fair comp for all. Thursday looks set for a breezy morning but dry, we may a real links course by the weekend.

I had a crazy dream about Nick Watney for the PGA Championship in 2010, steamed in with a huge bet at 50/1 with the bookies + 60s on here, was a lot of fun getting that sweat from a dream (wasn't really a regular golf punter then). Sunday wasn't much fun though, 3 shot lead gone on the 1st

Also backed Jaidee mate, only small though, in very good form in this part of the world, in 2009 at Turnberry he was only 4 shots off the playoff Cink won.

Funny thing is he was on my shortlist of ten which was then trimmed to five, you cant back them all. I know he has his wife and kids with him this week at Lytham which he doesnt do very often.

He has shown good form this year and this after a slump of around a year and half, he is also a grinder and I think you may need that around here this week, the army mentality may help him too.

I have had £20 on at 270/1 just for the interest.

good luck to you

I guess I have hopes with Tongchai, Paddy and who knows what Sergio and Dustin might do later. Had a daft £20 on Davis Love at 640, who knows ?