When the wind blows on Sunday we may have carnage, real carnage and who knows, fingers crossed.

All my thoughts online tomorrow morning around 11am, I will also be adding Seniors Open thoughts later in the day and will be at Turnberry all week to watch the old boys. Follow me on Twitter @golfdaft or on www.open4golf.com

RBC Canadian Open
Hamilton Golf and Country Club
Canada
26th –29th July


No doubt this week where the best betting opportunities are and it has to be the Canadian Open rather than the Austrian Open.

The European Tour has a significantly weakened field, however the Canadian Open has a pretty strong turnout and of course it also has the presence of a no doubt still celebrating Ernie Els, we will be staying clear of the Big Easy this week.

Regular readers will know that I have been on the case of Vijay Singh this year and he continues to impress me, remember we backed him a couple of weeks ago at 175/1 and laid out at 15/1, we can make more money from the big Fiji native again this week. It was notable that Vijay had a super Open Championship carding a final round of 70, with no dropped shots; he was the only player to have no dropped shots on the final day, a clear sign that his day is near.

At 6983 yards the Canadian Open will pay a tough par of 69 this year and I fancy that Vijay has the game to shine here this week and with his confidence back where it needs to be, he will be my main bet. I expect him to get away to a fast start and still be in contention on Sunday, he can be backed at 60/1 and may well drift as the markets gain liquidity.

Another golfer I like and who will be fresh this week is the Korean Seung Yul Noh, also currently available at 60/1. This kid is a terrific prospect and once he learns to win, I am sure he will become a multiple winner. His power game will not be seen to its best extent around this Hamilton track, however, he is a largely straight hitter and he can really catch fire when he sniffs the birdies. Lets hope that this week is his first PGA Tour win, back him each way.

Sean O’Hair beat Kris Blanks in this event last year, but you cant take anything from that as it was played in Vancouver and this weeks event is in Ontario, so I will be passing on the top five from last year.

Young Kyle Stanley made an amazing impression last season, firstly in defeat and how he took that body blow, then in the manner of his subsequent victory a mere week later. He has a classic golf swing and now that he has started to show some form again, I think he can be backed with confidence; I really like his chances this week. I followed him for 9 holes at Lytham and he hit the ball as solid as anyone out there, he can make his mark at odd of 46/1.

Accuracy will be important this week, maybe more so than most weeks and for my outsider this week I am going to be playing on an old timer, Bob Estes. Bob had a decent Open and has really recovered his career in the last 18 months, his world ranking was 479 a year ago, he is now at 182, he is confident and with calm conditions forecast, I have taken the 150/1.

I know that many of you will be keeping an eye out for a home winner this week, the Canadians love their sport and there has been little to cheer since the career of Mike Weir began to decline. David Hearn may give the best account and as the market settles, he will be around the 150/1 mark.

Kyle Stanley`s victory & runner up to Snedeker was this season Golfdaft, not last season.

Pleased Golfdaft that you have confidence in him this week as i'm on at 50/1 . Also fancy Mahan at 16/1.

Thanks for your comments and for pointing out my deliberate mistake re Stanley ! Will do better next time, I promise. Hope you  all backed the strong fancies at the Austrian Open, what a great start, we now have at least two opportunities to take chunky profit and look to be in solid shape for a strong week.

I have been at the Seniors Open all day today at Turnberry and what amazing shape the course was in and under blue skies for the first time in ages in that part of the world. The local head grounsman at the Turnberry Hotel was telling me that he expects great weather all week, if so, some players will go low here of waht are slightly forward tees to the Championship tees.

I spent a deal of time walking with the top players, Tom Watson, Langer, Player, Norman and Couples ( missed Lehman but saw him work for ages on his putting ) Having said that, none of the above will see my money this week.  Although I must express caution, too many players and whos form I am simply unfamiliar with and of course, a real lack of liquidity until the weekend when its on terrestrial TV.

I had a chat with the South African David Frost, not about Ernie Else or about wine making, but about his chances, he expressed quiet confidence. I saw him play, hit balls and putt for ages and I have to tell you, I have never seen any golfer putt better, it was sublime. I know that talking to caddies is like talking to jockeys, but Frost`s caddie told me that he has never seen him as focussed and playing putting so well. He, like me, also feels that the dry, warm and light winds are a perfect combination for a player who is always worth a punt when greens are quick and the weather is good. So folks, I have had a wee dabble at 75/1 and will be scouring the weather forecast across the weekend.

I have also had a coule of smaller bets on Sandy Lyle, again, a Scott who is capable of winning her eif the weather stay good, glasses dont work in the rain, so fingers crossed, 130/1. Last man for me is a little known American called Tim Thelen, he won back to back earlier in the year in Germany and Switzerland and his price of 100/1 is tempting.

In the ladies event in France, I have had a small wager on Sandra Gal at 85/1, good showing recently in the last Major and is prett fit from the rear, great legs. Calm down !!

Full Twitter updates #golfdaft or at open4golf.com

What does that mean ?

I know your not a fan, shame because you could have been making real money again this week off Levet, Pablo and Sandra Gal all backed a decent prices and stakes returned with plenty running on, good luck.

not at all golfdaft, bbc kept going on about watson having a problem with his hand, and losing power

still made the cut at the open, but put me off backing him this week


i thought as you were there you'd know if somebody had asked  him about it

WGC Bridgestone Invitational
Firestone Golf Club
Akron
Ohio
August 02 –05


One of the great events on the PGA calendar and of course over the years Tiger has pretty much made this his own and for followers of the “great one” you will be salivating at his prospects this week, you can get 5/1 in most places which a few years back would have been nearer even money for this event. I do expect Tiger to go well here this week, but I feel he may just come up one or two short and besides, his patchy form makes his price somewhat unattractive.

The Akron area has suffered with very warm, near drought like conditions for months now and the course is much firmer and running faster than usual. You can also expect the greens to be much quicker than in previous years, be aware though, that the calm conditions of Thursday and Friday are set to be replaced with stormy weather across the weekend.

The last time I advised Luke Donald as a bet, he delivered the BMW at Wentworth, played on a fast running and bumpy golf course, his controlled game was just perfect that week. Well, its time for Luke to step forward again and with the course set up this week as it is, it should be just perfect for the steady Englishman. He is around 17/1 on Betfair and 14 with Bet365, remember the £200 sign up bonus with the later, this would be a good time to use it in my view.

Donald finished a strong fifth at Royal Lytham and has been looking very good in practice too; I make him a very strong bet.

Next up is wee Ricky Fowler. I backed him at Lytham, but the very un links like conditions did for Ricky, make a note of him as a certain future Open winner, perhaps in Scotland when the course plays as a true links. Firestone with the fast running fairways and firm greens will be ideal for a player who following his win earlier in the year, when he edged out Rory, is in top form with confidence high. He tied second in this event last year and with a putting average of 1.512, shows that he has a real liking for this place at 35/1 with Betfair and 33/1 with Betfred, he represents terrific each way value.

Another one of my Open selections is due to play well again and his power game off the tee should be rewarded this week especially as the rough is only wispy and short irons will still get some grip when in previous years they may not have. It has to be Dustin Johnson. He played well at Lytham without troubling the judge (T9th) and perhaps had the poorest of the weather too, I like his chances and he is very determined to secure his Ryder Cup place so its vital he goes well here this week, he is a top putter and has finished top 25 in 2 of his last three visits to Firestone. At 35/1 with Betfair, he is a decent price for a serious run at the title.

When Bubba Watson hit his miracle shot at The Masters earlier in the year, he took away my last chance of a return on what was a poor event for me. I backed Louis at a shade over evens with four to play in regular time as a get out and pretty much did my brains. Bubba has still not been given the credit for the shot he played from the trees to the tenth green in that play off with Oosthuisen, it was perhaps the best shot I have ever seen given the circumstances and had we been able to view this from the Goodyear Blimp as you can at almost all PGA Tour events, then the world would have seen the true extent of Bubba`s genius. Incidentally, you may not be aware that the reason we have no aerial shots at Augusta is due to a committee decision, basically, they don’t want the world to see what a dump it is around the perimeter of the Augusta National course. Bubba is has lead this event after day one and he may be a good bet to do so again this week, he also leads the Tour in greens hit in reg from lies off the fairway, so at 35/1 with Betfair and  33/1 with Bet365 he is a solid ew bet.

I have a real strong hand this week and I very nearly included Vijay who is oh so close to winning again, I just feel his putting will fail him with greens running so fast, but I will be watching him closely with a view to future events.

Finally, a word for the enigmatic Kevin (pull the god damn trigger) Na, I am told he is hitting the ball flush and very excited for his chances this week, if you fancy a bog outsider then you could do worse than back him at 339/1 on Betfair.

Follow me on Twitter #golfdaft
All the latest news and scores at www.open4golf.com

The Reno Tahoe Open
2nd to 5th August

We will be playing under modified stableford scoring format this week and in essence it simply increases the potential volatility of scoring as players are more heavily penalised for double bogeys and worse and more heavily rewarded for eagles and better. In theory this keeps more players more involved for longer, lets see what happens.

There is no great gallery of stars here as the top players are all at the WGC event at Firestone, however, somebody has to win here and the bookmakers have unbelievably chalked up Paddy Harrington as a pre tournament favourite, I just don’t see him winning this or even finishing top five – overlook.

My boys against the field will be;

Dicky Pride – this is his favourite event of the year and he is buzzing about his chances this week. Confidence on the course counts for a lot so take the hint with him and a small interest at the current odds of 95/1 looks a decent bet.

JB Homes – the big hitting yank who recently recovered from brain surgery has made stead progress following his illness and looks to be about primed now to step back into the winners circle. JB is capable of going very low and when he catches fire, he can be an eagle and birdie machine, this modified stableford system will suit his game right now and at 27/1, (Betfair) he looks a fair bet.

Kevin Stadler – I was at Turnberry this week for the Seniors Open and I met Kevin’s father on Sunday evening at the Turnberry Hotel, what a charming, if very large man he is. He told me that son Kevin, really fancies his chances this week, who am I to argue with that? I have backed the young walrus at 70/1, pardon the pun, but he may bet bigger before the event!

John Daly – The two time Major winner has been playing much better this season and my friends who know JD pretty well, tell me that the Wild Thing may be considering a full time move to the European Tour in due course. They as tell me that JD feels his game is now very close to landing him another PGA Tour win, he can certainly be inspired by the modified stableford format and with none of the big stars here this week, it just might be the time for big JD to hit the jackpot again. I am on with Betfair at 160/1.

Be aware that the markets are poor for this event right now, less than 10k matched on Betfair on the winners market so expect some changes in the next couple of days and maybe strike your bets on Thursday morning.

Decent positions for us as it stands at 36 holes played, Donald well placed and I expect him to close in on Furyk during the third round. Delighted with how we stand in the Reno Tahoe, JB shot the best score on day two and big JD is right where I hoped he would be. The leader is a Brazilian, Alexandre Rocha, no top 25 s in 15 starts on tour this year, he is a massive lay in my book, win, top5 and top 10.

"I anticipate dry and windy conditions for the week".

Thunderstorms a threat everyday I'm afraid.

Cheers Donny. Interesting article about Phelps looking to play the pro am circuit. www.open4golf.com

will suit Rory like U.S Open last year.

Interesting that you choose now to post that, after having had all night and morning when he was sitting on 5 under...

My preview for the Wyndham

What an effort from Rory last week, I have to say that the word was out the week prior to the PGA that Rory really had the vibe and felt good about his chances, so did Dustin Johnson and no doubt plenty of other players, but one thing is for sure, when the 23 year old Irish kid from Holywood in Northern Ireland has his game head on he is the only player who can shift gear and pull clear of a class field matching Tiger in his pomp. It remains to be seen whether Rory can build on this and add consistency to a superb all round ability, its early to be speculating about next year, but my thoughts are that he will kick on from here and add at least one Major per year for the next few years.

This week sees no European Tour event, very sad indeed and the US Tour event has an average look about it , but there still might be some trading opportunities in there.

My thoughts and fancies for this week are as follows.

I swore to myself that after my last wager on Sergio, that I would not back him again until there was clear evidence that his mood and body language on and around the course had changed, all too often, he seems to have simply fallen out of love with the game. In the past, you could have been certain that the young Spaniard would have been fired up for the Ryder Cup, especially when its away from home in a hostile environment like Medinah. On the flip side, does a downcast Sergio really fancy the heat of the battle and having spoken with a number of people who mix with the Spaniard and have spent time with him recently, they tell me that the Ryder Cup means as much to him as it ever did and he is desperate to qualify for the team as an automatic pick.

The Jonnie Walker Championships next week at Gleneagles which I will be attending, will be the final qualifying event for the European Ryder Cup team and with Sergio having been deposed by Ian Poulter from 10th and final automatic spot, after his superb effort at Kiawah Island behind Rory, Sergio has to step up to the plate this week at the Wyndham if he is to qualify without relying on his mate Jose as a Captain`s pick.

I am not sure if my ramblings have convinced you, I am not sure if I have truly convinced myself, however, its hard to think that in honour of the late and great Sevy and with Ollie as captain, that he wont give this, one great big effort this week. I am on ew with Bet365 ( remember, for new customers there is a massive £200 bonus) and for a win with Betfair at 36/1.

The Wyndham has always been a low scoring event, the course at just over the 7100 yards has no length issues but the replacement of all 18 greens only three months ago will change the results, so you stats guys, please be aware of this this week. Not only will the new green complexes need to time to bed in and find their true settlement, the grass type is much firmer and therefore the metaphorical "dart throwing" of years gone by could be replaced by a freakish result this time around. Some rain is forecast on Friday evening and Saturday morning, but of this was horseracing, the going would be declared as good all over, so no distinct advantage for anyone over the field, it remains my view that accuracy and good iron play will be the order of the day.

Of the front runners, the one I like the most is Mr Grumpy, Jason Dufner. With 17 consecutive cuts made and a strong finish last week at Kiawah Island, the unhappy one must have a great chance here at the Wyndham this week. His important stats are that he is 7th in greens in reg and 5th in birdie average, this sets him up for  a decent each way bet and I have taken 14.5 with Betfair which in this field looks big.

At a much bigger price I am also having a few quid on the South African Brendon De Jong. BDJ has featured heavily this year and a bit like Dufner, has now made 15 consecutive cuts, but we need more than that.Currently 75/1 with Betfair, his game should be well suited to this rink and with a greens in reg stat leaving him in 15th on tour he has to be a strong fancy and if anything, is maybe a tad over priced. Beware that he sometimes struggles in the heat of battle and I see him very much as a trading opportunity, so for me, its a win bet with Betfair with a few to trading out on the weekend.

I do love John Daly and let me tell you, he loves the European Tour, big time. Word on the street is that the Wild Thing would love a full time card for Europe and I am told he feels loved over here, how sweet. He certainly retains a golf game and we just missed out with him a few weeks back in the Modified Stableford event. Close friend of big JD are insistent that the Coke drinking ex hall raiser is very close to winning and much more focussed than in previous years, maybe he has another divorce settlement due ! Check out his latest exploits hitting a full blooded driver off a tee peg held in the mouth of an equally crazy David Feherty, it does make you wonder ! John seems much happier in himself and maybe more content with his life than in recent years and he is in North Carolina in his RV along with his family, not what all golfers want to do, but it seems to be working for the blonde bomber. I didn't want to desert him this week as I am also of the view that the win is just around the corner, no good reason why it cant be this week and he remains at a value price at 130/1

My daft outsider for the week will have to be boring Bob Estes, much improved this year in his world ranking and he can this short but accurate hitter could do well this week at silly prices, worth some of the wife`s money.

Good Luck

A couple of great shouts this week...tho you are not telling anyone anything they do not already know about Garcia. (you make it sound as if you are!)
There are several groups close to the lead out before Sergio and one would think that a few will charge on this track...so I'd lay him now and you should be able to cover this, just before he tees off, should you so wish?
Prob best to leave Duffner, as you say, for now.
Wont wish you luck as youre in a pretty good spot anyways.

My selections for the Barclays are as follows, to see the supporting rational and logic, please check out www.open4golf.com and see me under Tipster. Johnnie Walker tips on later today, very strong bet.

Keegan Bradley 40/1
Justin Rose 26/1
Bo Van Pelt 70/1
Brian Davis 400/1

Nice result last week, hope you made money. www.open4golf.com

Omega European Masters

Bernd Weisberger 55/1
Branden Grace 55/1
Thomas Bjorn 25/1
Anders Hansen 44/1

Full previews and loads of breaking news at www.open4golf.com

Dutch Open - Three duffers and its a one man book for me, ony hope is Weisberger.

BMW - Delighted with Webb Simpson and all four picks

A quiet week in the world of golf with no PGA Tour event in the USA and the countdown well underway to the 2012 Ryder Cup at Medinah. The European Tour moves to Italy for the BMW Italian Open Presented By CartaSi, played over the Royal Park 1 course at Roveri.

All eyes will be on the three European Ryder Cup players, Martin Kaymer, Nicolas Colsaerts and Italian, Francesco Molinari, all three have indicated that this will be their last event before Medinah. Of the three, I much prefer the chances of Molinari and I do expect him to figure over the weekend, but he is a very short price with most bookmakers and with his mind on the Ryder Cup, I can see one or two other players representing better value this week.

My main bet this week is a South African who has had a mixed couple of years and is only now beginning to find his true form, incidentally, he is also a player that I believe can deliver a Major, his game is that good, keep an eye on him in 2013. Still playing courtesy of a medical exemption, Richard Sterne is a 5 time winner on the European Tour and after a 41st at The Omega and a strong 8th place last week at the KLM, he is ready to win again. At 40/1 on Betfair Sterne represents super value on a course that will surely suit him, shotmakers do well around Roveri and last years winner Robert Rock has a similar game to Sterne.

Italian golfers are always a standing dish at the Italian Open and 19-year-old Matteo Manassero, already a two-time winner on tour, has, by his own admission targeted this event for much of the year. He has done well here in the past, a top 5 finish last year on a course that demands accuracy from the tee and one that he is comfortable playing, giving the young Italian a real edge here and I expect him to be bang there on the final day. Bet365 have a tasty 25/1 on offer, take it!

Rafa Cabrera Bello at 38/1 with Betfair has already proven that he is a real talent and only Jose Maria Olazabal will know just how close his countryman came to landing one of those prized Ryder Cup wild card picks. I suspect that when we role out at Gleneagles in 2014, Rafa will have booked his spot on the team with automatic qualification. With 2 European Tour wins and one this season and a string of near misses, the Spaniard stands at 16th in the Race To Dubai and his current Betfair price is way too generous for a player of his ability.

The world's smoothest golf swing must surely belong to Frenchman Raphael Jacquelin. A stalwart on the European Tour, his form has been patchy in 2012, perhaps his highlight being a close 3rd at his home Open at Alstom. He has played well at Royal Park in the past with a 3rd in 2009 and a 26th last week at the KLM was a decent showing, you can get 100/1 with several bookmakers, I guess he may drift further on Betfair so maybe as much as 120/1 may be available before Thursday.