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It Pays To Lay In Play
It Pays To Lay In Play
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Replies: 360
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It pays to lay in play, backed Stenson at lage odds and taken all out at 15, fantastic. In profit for all my Masters betting already and only half way through day one. yipee.
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So let me get this straight. Your mantra is always, 'take a profit at the earliest opportunity'. However today you managed to resist laying Stenson at all the prices traded from 200 downwards, waiting until he traded at 15. You then inform us of this shortly after he takes an 8 at the last and drifts back out to 130.
 Hopefully you will display a similar level of psychic ability to escape from your Westwood lay! |
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not sure what your suggesting, i layed stenson, singh and stallings and made decent profits from all of them. I will clearly lose on immelman and i never laid westwood and never suggested that anyone should. So many smart arses on here, no doubt skint ones !
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I laid most of my stenson bet immediately after I saw him birdie the 15th. He chipped in from behind the green and had he not hit the pin, he may well have ended up in the pond. his wedge into the green was miles out and the chip looked clumsy and there was no surprise to see his issues on 16 and 18. After further thought late last night, I closed him down altogether and checked out the remainder at 130. I made a tidy profit and no issues about the snipers most of whom follow the Palmer nonsense about day and ogilvy.
I have held my position on vijay, stallings, senden and had a speculative wager on yang who looks big at 320. I have to say I was shocked by Westwood and pleased for him at the same time. I debated the westwood lay with a contact close to his camp and I was pleased I did because he was very positive about what would happen from the gate. He told me that westwood was in the best mindset he had seen him in recent times and that lee had for the first time been working on maximising what he does well and not worrying about what he is less good at. He also told me that previous first round flops were due to a far too agressive game plan from the outset and that this week he would not be forcing things, just letting things happen of you like. As a consequence I dodnt lay westwood, nor did i bet him and i still feel his short game issues may bite him at some point. |
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many congratulations on backing a player before they hit a birdie and then laying leaders off just before they fall apart
could you let me no the lottery numbers whilst you are there? a sickening thread |
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Is your close contact with the Westwood camp, the barman at the Worksop Working Men's Club ? Lovely fella.
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so a player that you fancied strongly at the outset has a disaster hole and you ditch him even at 130? and have a zero outcome on your ''strong fancy''
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Easy to shut the smart ar5es up Golfdaft ,just post your lays of Stenson.
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daft i know but had to go back in for stenson at 90s, just after he has played the 7th.
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daft i know but had to go back in for stenson at 90s, just after he has played the 7th.
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I have to say I have never come across such an ascorbic bunch of creeps, no wonder a handful of you have chased most people away from this forum.
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''daft i know but had to go back in for stenson at 90s, just after he has played the 7th''
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Some of the all time greatest aftertiming on this fred. Loving it.
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he will have layed him ten seconds before the double bogey
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Wonder what price he got out at this time ,anyone know the lowest he reached tonight ?
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about mid forties i think
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Told all his subscribers to lay Westwood......then having recieved the good word from the Westwood camp,omitted to tell his subscribers NOT to lay Westwood.
When asked to comment on this anomilly,he headed for the nearest exit,shouting expletives,and threatening libel action. It does not pay to lie all day !! |
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Golf nut = a wannabe pro
Making himself look very very silly. Just another attention seeker....zzzzzzzz |
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Having read this entire thread, how come it is only me who got slated when saying I was sick of all the aftertimers ???? all of a sudden plenty have joined the bandwagon...just goes to show that Old Alfie is a trendsetter
 as for FAGG0T (pardon me, I mean MAGGOT ) having a go....when he is one of the biggest aftertimers of all time !!!!!!!!!! |
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The game is easy
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Pleased that my threads are proving to be of such an entertainment value. Not a vintage Masters but had the top amatuer and hole in one and made money on Stenson and Stallings. Had a very decent saver on Louis that also went south on the last day, thats golf.
This week will be more guarded; Malaysia - Jeev @150, richard green @100 and richard sterne @180. I will be looking for an early start from these boys and then laying in play and trying to sit with a green screen ahead of the weekend. The Heritage is a ball strikers paradise and will be won by a precision golfer, rather than a slogger, my shortlist is; Brian Davis @50, fred jacobsen @65, sang moon bae @80 and boo weekly @80. good luck |
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golfdaft, contrary to what appears to be popular opinion, I think you talk a bit of sense! Anyways, I'm on Stanley, O'Hern, Duke, and Verplank this week
Best of luck with your picks |
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comments appreciated, good luck with your selections
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Sterne undercooked after injury, it will probably be best to watch him frm here on in. Nice start from Green, happy with where he sits and what a start from Jeev, delighted. Backed at 150 and its easy to trade at 24, 25, 26. I would normally trade here to recover stakes and maybe take a small profit, however, due to the proximity of charl and louis on the leaderboard jeev is still too big. I expect him to handle the steamy weather better han the south african boys and their Masters exploits will take there toll later in the week. So I will be sticking with jeev for now and reviewing as we go in round two.
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Nicely in profit from all three of four at Harbour Town, just need the boys in Malaysia to pick things up tmrw morning.
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Two very poor events this week and not much to inspire the seasoned golf bettor. The very long course in China will prove a real test and as always it will come down to who putts the best across all for days. Poulter is a well marked favourite and no doubt this is based on his return to form at Augusta. Poulter does putt well on very fast green, these grainey surfaces will be against him, so for me he is one to be avoided this week I do expect some of the asian players to over perform this week. The asia tour have their own event on this week and this conflict is the big news in that region, so be sure that the asian players that turn up for the co sanctioned event in China will be on full throttle.
Poor liquidity right now, should be better on Wednesday. China Selections Hiratsuka 280 Stephen Gallagher 55 ( thinks he can make the ryder cup team ) Francesco Molinari 23 Dae Hyun Kim 440 Cahn Won Han 640 both will be back to lay In Texas we also have a below average turnout, Matt Kuchar is the favourite and on the face of it he should be, proven winner and good show at Augusta and I expect he will be in the mix at the end of the week, however, he isnt great value at 12.5 current show. KJ Choi is way overpriced at 26 and he will be a solid ew bet for me, so too Jimmy Walker a player with a good record and a love of this track, he can be backed ew at 60 s. I also like Vaughn Taylor at 80 and Harrison Frazer looks a decent price at 130, I will be backing both ew. Best of luck with your own bets. |
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If you could let us all know as and when your picks will make some birdies/bogeys, that will be great thanks
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Whats that about ?
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Two great events to get stuck into this week, dealing with the European Tour firstly, I make the following recommendations and with a high degree of confidence.
Spanish Open Spanish boys must be expected to be up for the national title and I anticipate seeing Miguel, Larrazabal and garrido all in the higher reaches of the leaderboard. My additional pick for the week is the well rested Manassero. Miguel 25/1 Manassero 27/1 Larrazabal 50/1 Garrido 80/1 All backed ew and in ew cross doubles with my picks from Quail Hollow, see below. Wells Fargo / Quail Hollow A stellar field with Rory , Tiger, Phil and Lee grabbing the attention and nobody even speaking abot last years winner Lucas Glover. I am seeking value from this event which incidentaly will have bunker faces squeegeed for the first time, this will give the appearance on TV of the bunker faces having been painted on rather than raked. I like the crazy boy Kevin Na here, he has great stats around the Quail Hollow track and if he can hold his temper he can lift the trophy. My longer prices are John Senden, still knocking on the door and now getting psychological support from Greg Norman, he is due pretty soon and his ball striking should stand him well this week. I also like a big outsider in Bobby Gates, he tied sixth here last year on his debut which was a fantastci performance and he is solid in all areas of his game. Last years positive memoroes should serve him well again, could be a vry strong back to lay. NA 80/1 Senden 90/1 Gates 320/1 Good Luck |
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Senden and Pablo gave a great account last week and an opportunity to trade out with a positive outcome, Matteo too ( briefly ). This week is one of the truly great events and the stadium course makes for a perfect finish, especially the tricky ( when its windy ) 17th.
In Europe we have a very sub standard field, I thought it was our monthly media at first glance. Small investements on two players only Philip Price 42/1 Nick Dougherty 90/1 ( world top 50 2 years ago and just needs to believe once again ) Sawgrass - I would love to see Davis Love win put he putts like Stevie Wonder, so he may be in pay, but cant possibly string 4 decent putting rounds together. My four are; Lee Westwood 15/1 Lee swerved this event last year and was slagged off big time by the yanks. Watch out boys, its payback time this week and could herald the start of a real big tournament streak for Lee. Maximum each way bet for me. David Toms 90/1 failled in a play off against KJ last time out over this track and its a course that requires a straight hitter with a good feel on the greens, DT fits the bill. Martin Laird 220/1 Outrageous price for a player just hitting form and who expects to play well here this week, a real solid back to lay price, lovely. Mark Leishman 920/1 - Its always goof to take a big outsider, especially in this case as he is capable of mixing it for two or three rounds anyway, with the big boys. Might be a great back to lay proposition. Have fun and remember, dont get greedy and hang on to those wagers when you can lay and take a profit, over a long season, its the best chance of making money. Good luck |
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I was reading the threads for The Racing Post and many of the posts are slagging off the tipping performance over the last year or so. I guess if the tipster hasnt advised a trading approach then he deserves what he gets, however, I wonder how he might have done had he looked to trade out on his selections over that period.
A few weeks ago I posted that tipping the winner of a golf event is a bonus and was roundly battered for doing so, well my first day performance at Sawgrass is the perfect opportunity to take the insurance. Each week I place each way cross doubles on my USA and European selections, quarter odds first five, usually to £5 stakes and more often than not, I dont collect. I place win bets on my selections on Betfair where the prices are always much better than at conventional bookmakers and if the conditions on any day allow me to recover all of my stakes by trading on Betfair then thats what I seek to achieve. The key of course is to determine when to trade and over a period of time, I have concluded that this has to be a gut feel as much as anything. I took a small amount back from Toms early on but havent yet traded out on Laird though I may do before play commences. My hope is that with an early tee time and a decent round, he just might find himself leading and his price will shorten accordingly. In any event, backing a player at 220 and again at 240 and finding plenty of liquidity to trade out at 15/1 must make sense and represent a true money making opportunity. I have taken the same view with Dougherty in Madeira, early start today and I hope a good performance will allow for a trading position. If all stakes are recovered I can sit with a smaller win proposition across the weekend and of course sit back and hope that my ew doubles land a big prize. Good luck today |
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Well played on Laird. I took a long hard look at him & Ogilvy and they seemed to fit the winning profile but I couldn't shake that Laird hadn't shot a sub 70 round in all his time there and Ogilvy not much better.
Seems you bit the bullet and it paid off. FWIW, you make some fine write ups but people really don't like aftertiming on here and I must admit your talk of trading on Stenson was a bit ludicrous. |
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The thread title is a good one anyway. My big JJ Killeen back @ 1000 when -2 thru 5 followed by lots of lays at around 200 paid my stakes on a big number of other golfers. Now he's up to 650s again despite early tee time and -3.
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Crowseye - Point taken, im green in the forum and it was an honest post, simple as that.
For anyone interested, just been told that Keegan Bradley is confirmed for The Irish Open at Portmarnock, that should add a bit more quality to an already top class event. |
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Funny how the Scots are attracted to water - Laird !!
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The last round action should be fantastic and I think we will see great volatility in the top ten places, especially with the pin positions at 17 and 18. Thanks to Laird and Toms great starts, I am re investing profits in Vegas as a back to lay, also top 5 and top 10 and took a wee bit of 3s for top 20 ( no liquidity ). Still have high hopes for Laird and will also be looking to lay Na to finish out of the top 5. Should be great last day.
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Fresh off a very positive Players Champs for me, this week looks as tricky as ever. Although I enjoy the matchplay format, form and logic often count for very little, so be prepared for some shocks. The Byron Nelson looks a weaker field than usual but there is still some value and opportunity lurking there.
Volvo Matchplay Charl 12/1 Peter Hanson 15/1 Charl will be fresh for this after a lighter schedule and Hanson is becoming a true world class golfer. He always had the game, he now has the belief and recent results suggest he may be ready to take a real step forward. Byron Nelson Keegan Bradley 20/1 Carl Petterson 30/1 Johnson Wagner 65/1 Mark Leishman 130/1 Keegan would love to defend the title he won last year and I think is just about ready to win again. Petterson has been a contender all year and this track should suit his game, shame he cant represent Europe in the Ryder Cup as he has no membership of the European Tour. Johnson is back in form and a very capable player, if he gets a sniff of the lead he can go on and deliver. Leishman is a decent outsider with a solid game and had a decent week last week, could sneak aplace. I have backed all players in ew cross doubles and win only on Betfair. As you know, I am always looking to cover all my outlays as early as possible and then its fingers crossed that we land a win or even a place double. Happy punting and I hope you took my last day advice last week and made a few quid. cheers |
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Didn't you just berate somebody for backing e/w doubles and basically anything without a view to trade, in another thread?
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