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Great start for our boys at The Honda. Our two main picks, Carl Petterson is -3 and very well placed, we were on at 110 and he is trading at 42/44, at least take your stake.
KT Kim dropped a couple of shots towards the end of his round but is still well placed at -2, we backed at 220 and he remains available at 90/1 if your looking to trade out or regain your initial investment.
Yang had a very steady round, a double bogey on his second hole was a real setback, but an even pat finish sees far more players beneath him than above. I have backed him again at 100/1 and am very positive about him getting into the mix for the weekend.
Davis Love leads at 6 under but good ball striker as he is, his short putting is terrible so I take the view that the "real" leaders are actually at -4, which keeps our boys very close to the action. Crane as expected well placed too.
Take your stake back and then let battle commence over the next two days.
KT Kim dropped a couple of shots towards the end of his round but is still well placed at -2, we backed at 220 and he remains available at 90/1 if your looking to trade out or regain your initial investment.
Yang had a very steady round, a double bogey on his second hole was a real setback, but an even pat finish sees far more players beneath him than above. I have backed him again at 100/1 and am very positive about him getting into the mix for the weekend.
Davis Love leads at 6 under but good ball striker as he is, his short putting is terrible so I take the view that the "real" leaders are actually at -4, which keeps our boys very close to the action. Crane as expected well placed too.
Take your stake back and then let battle commence over the next two days.
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It's one thing that you felt the need to create a new thread a few days ago to tell us your picks and not post them on the pre tournament thread.
But why do you need to create another one to follow up on your picks ? Why not just do that on your first thread ? |
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apologies, just learning to use the forum and your correct, I should have done that, give me time, i will get there and it will be worth following my golf insights.
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No problem and please keep on posting as this forum needs every contributer it can get.
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id would find it very interesting if one of ye regular players done a thread on how ye played a tournament from start to finish with only you posting in the thread,just for one tourney to give an insight of your trading,if any of ye felt ye could do it without it giving away too much info and if it didnt take up too much time it would be cool
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A big call to make on Carl Petterson but agree with Davis Love who I expect to fall away.
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nice result to back KT Kim at 220 and advise the lay, freely available at all rates between 20/1 and 40/1, hope you all made good profits.
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lol....... there was £2 taken at 20 and below
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and it wasnt mine
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So your 4 tips were:
Yang - backed at 50 and again at 110. Currently trading at 210+ Pettersson - backed at 110, laid for free bet at 42/44. Currently trading at 110. Kim - backed at 220, laid at 90 for free bet. Missed cut. Canizares - backed at 400, missed cut. Current book is minus 3pts the field, +66pts Pettersson and +160pts Yang. |
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daftgolf
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Thanks for doing the maths Knight Rider, almost correct and close enough. Golf betting is for me about spotting the value and then trying to extract profits when you can, tournament winners are a bonus, no more than that.Thanks for your comments.
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you cant win all the time
started out backing a 25/1 shot near enough thing to watch is trading all your profit on a winner too cheaply you are always learning !!! |
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Golf daft are you serious?
"tournament winners are a bonus and no more than that" If this is your strategy above, and all you are doing is "spotting value" then you have to lay for more than just a free bet. If all you are gonna do is lay for free bets then winners are essential! As knightrider has stated you are now gonna be minus 3pts; So unless you change how much you lay on these they are not freebets as so far they have cost you 3pts! |
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Lets just set some reality into the supposition, firstly, my opening bets were graduated as I am sure most golf bettors on here do. Most points on Yang and Petterson, less on KT Kim and a very small stake on Canizares. I work very much on the basis that if laying early as I did, then I could take profits. This being reliant on the key players getting off to a good start which they did at the Honda. My own strategy is then to re invest as the tournament unfolds as I have done. My two bets yesterday were on Keegan at 12 and Rory, heavily at 2.4, I expect to see one of these two win from here, if they dont, its a losing week, if they done then its a positive result again.
I do agree with the comments from donny osmond and I have at times in the past traded out too early on players who then won the tournament and my own profits were far less than they might have been had I sat tight. |
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Yes,but you didn't take any stake back on Yang. On the contrary,you went and backed him again.
Now you have waded in on Wee Rory @ 2.4,( freely available @ 10 pre tournament),and Bradley. 'tournament winners are a bonus,and no more than that',doesn't apply to Wee Rory and Bradley now,I suppose ? I wish you luck with your endeavours sir,but from where I'm sitting,your 'strategy' needs slightly tweaked.  |
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of course winners matter, one of the problems with betfair is that it is far too easy to "bottle it". A trait shared with the wunder kid.
 Sometimes trading works out great, other times you are putting in a lot of effort and twitching fingers for very little gain. |
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you dont seem to have too much respect for rory aberdonia. what does he need to do for your respect? what do you expect to see from him in next 2/3 years? more majors? no more majors?
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Oh, im still hurting from his meltdown at the masters, i would have won thousands and the clown didnt even place for me.
I expect him to win a few more majors before his career is over but i cannot see him winning lots. US open is his best bet if he has a great driving week, his short game is not the best imo. His putting is also garbage at his age, i can never see him being a great putter if he is a poor one now. Having said all that he is a joy to watch when in full flow. I would just rather lay him than back him for the rest of his career. |
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fair enough, i respect your opinion, however, you must agree that winning is a learning curve and even Jack Nicklaus told him he will learn from the experience and he showed the following major he learned very quickly. I think to get the money back you lost at last year`s masters you should back him again for this year. GMac said recently "if ever a golf course suited Rory, it is Augusta". I can just see him drawing the ball at the par 5 13th & playing a 7 iron to the green. I think he will win Master` comfortably this year with Phil as his nearest challenger. As far as putting is concerned, i think he is a very good putter and has a very good putting stroke, he would not be where he is in the game if he was a bad putter or even an average putter. Finally, i agree, he is a joy to watch and let`s be thankful for all the plearure and entertainment he will give us in the future.
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as far as losing thousands, aberdonia, if memory serves he was available to lay at 1.86 before last round of masters & maybe that is the way you should have played it.
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Went for Rose @ 40
and Woods  Never laid Rose off at around 3.6 - 4.0 Am I a mug or what  |
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thats well bad onemanarmy can't belive you dint lay off would of won you a fer bit am guessing
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onemanarmy, I suppose it depend's on your staking plan and if you have backed anyone else.
If it's level stakes and no-one else, lay Rose @ 18.5 to green up, then lay Wee Rory for what he wins you and enjoy watching tonight, with a few trading opportunities. If you have backed others, it looks like you sit and suffer like me. Good luck. |
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woods and rose charging for you ......
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Rosewoods charge repelled.
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Transitions - Watney and Jason Day are now both showing signs that make me believe that they are close to winning, I have backed both at 30/1 and 42/1 respectively. My two outsiders are Matt Jones who came close last week and Matt Every, a new kid on the block, im on at 310/1 and 300/1.
In Europe, its a poor filed and its pretty much 20/1 the field, great news if you have a strong fancy. My catious selections are; cabrera bello at 36/1, gonnet 55/1 and the little know lorenzo gagli 85/1. Remember, if you get off to a flyer, never fear laying to return your stake, a green screen is what you wnat when betting on betfair. good luck |
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Gagli, little known ???? Where have you been ?
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The Arnold Palmer plays long and tough and consequently dont expect a rash of sub par scores. Many of the big names use this as a sharpener for Augusta so it can throw up some real value for punting. Looking for guys who play tough courses well, I have gone for;
Immelman 220 Jacobson 90 Wilson 100 The Hassan is a low key European Tour event played inside the boundaries of the royal palace, they players enjoy it because they are treated so well there. Speculative investments only here for me and I will be following players with proven form over this testy layout. Davies 60 Gonnet 42 Oscar Floren 180 Good luck and remember, lay early, take your stake and look to re invest over the weekend once the events take real shape. |
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golfdaft
as somebody that lays early, why not wait for the draw and back some you fancy with early tee times ??? |
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does it really count as a good green book to merely target stake retrieval? you should be looking to green up for a profit always imo
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Nice point about getting players with early tee times and agree, having said that, you have to be aware of the prevailing conditions and there was plenty of early news about the Hassan. The wind was so bad early on that a waiter in the players lounge had a fridge blow over on his head injuring him and covering him in yoghurt ( low fat no doubt )
Its a low key week this week for betting with a below par firld in Europe and the US Tour providing a pre Masters game sharpener for the big guns. Half stakes this week and powder dry for Augusta, my picks are; Europe Manny - 9/1 Brandon - 29/1 Richard Green - 110/1 Jonzon 370/1 USA Badds 38/1 Stenson 60/1 ( already on a few weeks ago for Augusta ) Streelman 130/1 Dont be afraid to lay early, take profits, you can always go back in for seconds over the weekend. good luck |
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Don't be afraid to shut up every once in a while.
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Crowseye ?? The guy's averaging 2 posts a week, and you're telling him to shut up ??? You do come out with some garbage at times.
This dead forum needs more posters, IMO. |
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Gotta take the good with the bad mate, nobody's perfect.
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your posts are maybe the reason that so few participate on here, you might be the only one left soon which will no doubt suit you.
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Cant wait for The Masters next week. been stacking up on Rory for weeks and also playing on Immelman and Yang big time ew too. I hope that conditions are tough, a good breeze and fast greens, Trevor just getting back into some sort of form after a few years of recurring injury. He is fit and ready and in my view, a great player on tough courses. Dont expect him to feature when events require 22 under par, do expect him to play well when the track is tough and par rounds are a bonus. I expect to finalise my betting strategy on Monday and add a couple of other speculative punts to my anti post bets.
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took an extra punt on Cabrerra yesterday at 42 and again before he tees off today at 32.
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I'm another who can't agree with the thread title.
Everyone's got different strategies but I usually back in the 40 - 150/1 range EW and almost never lay at higher than evens. My profits come from a few decent priced winners a year. |
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This is it guys and girls, a chance to make loads of money and of course to get those big outsiders and then lay to take profits in play.
A few more obscure bets for me; 1. Hole in one - yes, £100 at 2.16 and it will be at the 16th. 2. The cut - lay Poulter @ 1.4, Paddy@ 1.5, Casey @ 1.47 and Quiros @ 1.48 3. Top oz - John Senden 10.5 4. Top SA - Trevor Immelman 5.2 5. Top Europe - Stenson 13 Main Event So much want Rory and still believe he is a very solid opening win bet at the current 7.6. I will be looking to lay Westwood in the 1st round as he is a very slow starter, then take my profit by backing him in the 2nd round. I really like the look of Immelman this year, his injuries have kept him at bay pretty much since he won this several years ago, however, he has showed steady improvement this season and he is pain free for the 1st time in years. He does best at tracks that play tough and yield fewest birdies, Augusta will play that way this year. Im on at odds from 140 - 170 and also gone big on top 5 / 10 and 20. Also taken wagers on the same basis on Senden ( he has been coached recently by Greg Norman on the psychology of the game ) who is a fantastic ball striker, if he hits a hot streak with the putter he cant be outside the top 20. Similar sentiment on Stenson, his game is returning and he has contented over the last few weeks, no pressure on him and I expect him to feature for much of the first three days at least. Backed both of the above at silly prices and also had a couple of small sentimental back to lays on Vijay and Oli too, obscene prices. Finally, I have backed Rory to win big time and have done so using Paddy Power and Ladbrokes earlier today who have a great offer on too. I expect to lay all the way, except Rory and then re appraise as the event unfolds. Best of luck to you all and have fun |