General Betting
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2024 US Election BETTING chat
2024 US Election BETTING chat
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I'm not disputing the market was more accurate but did it just get lucky. If the market or a pollster always sides with say republicans, then if there's a polling error that favours republicans the market or pollster will be deemed more accurate, even though in reality it may just have a republican bias.
Single trader spent millions propping up Romney in 2012. Odds for Obama on here were 1.4x I believe, 538's models had Obama at 91%. .https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2013/09/2012-intrade-paper-suggests-a-single-intrade-trader-spent-millions-to-make-it-look-like-mitt-romney-could-win.html |
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Hopefully there's no polling error this cycle. The difference between senate polling and presidential polling in the same states do suggest pollsters may be picking something up and have corrected mistakes from 16 & 20, when they missed some of the Trump support. With abortion a big issue and on the ballots, a 2022 error could counter that too.
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Of course there'll be errors, pollsters are always struggling to catch up, especially with under 30s
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Focaldata swing states polls - kamala leads 5-2 again
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Yeah good polls, also Kamala up 6 in new Fox poll
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Scratch that Fox poll, think someone just posted a screengrab of ABC poll and said it was new Fox poll lol
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.https://x.com/krassenstein/status/1825545355124990351
Seems like it would be too soon for Fox to conduct another poll |
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Those Focaldata polls showing Kamala up in NC but down in GA, so consistent with NYT
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Bit trolly of fox to wven put these polls on a screen :)
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Even
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It seems to me, as soon as the candidate markets are settled there will be lots of bank available and looking to back kamala
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That sounds reasonable.
Hillary, Michelle and Newsom have come in again last couple of days, they should drift out again after the convention and allow Kamala to come in a few ticks. |
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Did a count up on poly and there was stil 1.9% taken up by no hoper demeocrats .
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That should get whittled down quite quickly now if the market is sane.
I was hope the Republican bettors would bring Biden back into play after Trump said he was going to wrestle the nomination back. |
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Maybe they don't belive trump after all? :)
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https://youtu.be/O6u4vqJcq2k?si=WwN4J7d4Tw-FkjTW
Ben mugged off that it was a fox poll too |
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Trump has always had trouble thinking straight, but in the last few days he's said the congressional medal of honour is no good as the vets are hobbling or dead, and has posted a song about kamala sucking blokes off.
He's the democrats best asset currently |
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I don't think it's long before we get a larger mutiny in the republican party
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Ben mugged off that it was a fox poll too
Ha, amazing how far these fakes reach. |
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Hillary, AOC and Biden speaking today, Newsom, Michelle and Barack tomorrow
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@RonFilipkowski
The Republicans could have had past party nominees for president and VP speak at their convention, the problem is that the only one living who supports Trump is Sarah Palin. For dems they have Jimmy Carter as a delegate. 2 past presidents and 1 current president, and Hillary. |
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That's not true though is it? There's plenty of senators and house members that have merely tolerated him so far. The majority are not maga
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https://youtu.be/O6u4vqJcq2k?si=WwN4J7d4Tw-FkjTW
There you go toby, fox's chief political analyst has identified the problem.... |
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aoc
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Big morning consult poll with kam +4 today .
Other good polls too |
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Was a good speech by AOC. She hit 60 outright this cycle, could be 20 or less next cycle if Trump wins.
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The silent majority will one day reclaim the Republican party from the loud minority of MAGA RINOs. Not this cycle though.
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if he loses he'll stand again because of the protection it gives him
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RFK Jr looking at joining forces with Trump, his running mate says
.https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/rfk-jr-campaign-trump-alliance-shanahan.html |
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Liz Cheney was supposed to be important. She decided she wasn't gonna tolerate Trump anymore. Where is she now. The people who are out of the closet with their Trump hatred have been forced into retirement; Ryan, Romney will be happy for Kamala to win. Those Republicans with future ambitions, even if they don't like Trump, will end their careers if they speak against him.
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of course the flip side is that joining forces with the don will also end your career - it's why they ended up with such a poor vp candidate. if you've got gop ambitions best to keep quiet and stay clear
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Harris 2.06
Trump 2.02 |
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If the flip is because of RFK I think it's a bit of an overreaction. The H2H polling and 3-way polling isn't that much different, not sure how much an endorsement will influence his voters choice.
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Tobermory, it's hard to gather what was happening in retrospect, I didn't follow it either. It's the state polls that count and 538 correctly had Obama on 332 EC votes and RCP had him on 303EC votes. It sounds from the article that the Intrade market had Romney more competitive than here too, it's possible the trader has moved to here or Poly since 2012, wherever the news sites derive their odds from.
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The most rational case for the odds diverging from the polls/forecast right now, is an RFK endorsement, or the theory that Kamala wont get a further bump from the convention because she has already been getting that favourable coverage. The forecasts average about 54/46 and the market is 50/50, so not that much difference tbh.
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I was also thinking it's RFK related, but shouldn't his election winner go odds if so? Or is there simply no refelection to reality with the latter?
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I think they should drift but maybe the big layers are already red on him. The huge odds can act strange at times and not reflect reality, but it takes too much liability to move them and very little for someone to move them in.
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