General Betting
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2024 US Election BETTING chat
2024 US Election BETTING chat
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Don't think the excitement is lasting long, was baked into the market anyway
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Robert F. Kennedy Jr
@RobertKennedyJr President Trump scammed American workers. He promised to bring back manufacturing, raise wages, fix trade deals, close the carried interest loophole, and help small farmers. But everything President Trump achieved were things the Republican machine wanted. We got a tax cut for Jeff Bezos, deregulation for special interests, and giveaways to agriculture conglomerates. President Trump let the Bush wing of the GOP run all his agencies. His Interior Secretary was an oil & gas lobbyist. His Defense Secretary was a Raytheon lobbyist. His EPA Administrator was a coal lobbyist. His HHS Secretary was a pharmaceutical lobbyist. And his Labor Secretary was a lawyer for mega corporations. President Trump’s supposed support for farmers ($28 billion) all went to Big Ag conglomerates. We had the worst rioting and looting this country had seen since the 60s under President Trump. He inflamed racial tensions and didn’t keep us safe. Instead of using federal law enforcement to stop the rioting, Trump thought it was good optics to let Democrat-run cities burn. President Trump bragged about arming Ukraine more than Obama did. He also walked away unilaterally from the intermediate range nuclear missile treaty with Russia, destabilizing our relationship. He also exacerbated tensions between Ukraine and Russia that ultimately caused a war. Trump appointed the worst neocons to the highest positions of power in his administration: John Bolton, HR McMaster, and Robert O’Brien. Now, Lindsey Graham is one of his top advisors and likely to be his Secretary of State. President Trump bombed Syria, killed an Iranian general, and failed to fulfill his promise of ending the war in Afghanistan. President Trump invented lockdowns. He shut down millions of small businesses and facilitated the greatest wealth transfer to billionaires in this country’s history. President Trump did nothing to solve the opioid crisis. It got far worse under his tenure while his appointees running HHS were in the pocket of big pharma. If you think a second Trump term would be any different, you are engaging in wishful thinking. 4:08 AM · May 27, 2024 · 2.1M Views https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1794913465594962285 What an inspirational man of true principles.  |
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Farcical
Especially the interview the 'running mate' did the other day lol |
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Shameless
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all aboard the clown car
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Black guy on the cnn undecided panel exposed as a trump activist
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They needed him mind, everyone else seemed to be voting kamala
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RFK Jr will probably still be on ballots in MI, WI, NV and NC.
.https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2024/08/23/robert-f-kennedy-rfk-jr-suspends-presidential-campaign-endorses-trump-michigan-ballot-natural-law/74923208007 .https://abc11.com/post/will-robert-kennedy-jr-appear-ballot-north-carolina-what-happens/15224454/ |
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is the don still trying to get joe biden on the ballots?
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It was weird because he said he was staying on the ballot in non-swing states and wanted people to vote for him.
Nate538's model with a net 0.3% vote shift to Trump with RFK removed, similar number to what ABC's G Elliot Morris said. It was always no big deal, more about stopping the momentum and shifting the narrative after the dem convention. |
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where do we see the Don price at ko?
from memory he was 2.6 ish v Biden but im thinking more 2.8 v Kamala we won't be seeing the 6.0 v Hilary lol |
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I backed him at around 15 - 16 on election night 2016. I can't remember exactly when, i think polls had just closed
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Good time to ask, do we get exit polls? I can't remember. Or are they banned?
Do people make predictions on voting queues etc? |
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i suppose the networks "calling" the winners is an equivalent
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where do we see the Don price at ko?
from memory he was 2.6 ish v Biden but im thinking more 2.8 v Kamala Why?? Kamala's polling is nowhere near as strong as Biden 2020, and she is likely close to the biggest lead she will ever have. |
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 was saying my recollection was Hilary was 1.23 start of night and came in to maybe 1.12 early on so Trump was not double figures election night. Maybe I misremembered tho' |
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lol, I don't think we do
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Trump was definitely double figures at some point
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https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results
They do conduct exit polls but they don't use the data to make a prediction when the polls close like they do in other countries. They use the data to provide the pundits with some further information to discuss through the night as the results come in. |
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Yeah, it was a pretty short time, but the money buyers were out for hilary. I must have been thinking of 12 ish for trump.
I hadn't even been involved in the market, just saw it a scooped up a bit as a hedge against the horror of him winning lol |
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RCP have Trump at 46.9%, 538 at 43.7%, RacetoTheWH at 45.2%, when you factor in undecideds it brings it in-line or higher than his 2016 and 2020 results. It's hard to believe he is still being under-polled with these numbers.
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My KO guess is Don at 6/4. Models are around 54/46 but I'm squeezing a bit more for Kamala based on cash, ground organisation and how the campaigns have gone since she joined the race.
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Not much poll action, just activote Kam +6
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Trump being fluffed on poly, new accounts backing at 200k a time. So transparent
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Michael Adams, KY Secretary of State
@KYSecState Today at 3:30, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. filed to run for president in Kentucky. Having just completed review of his submission of signatures, we are placing him on the ballot. Tough pill for anyone that lost on him dropping out. |
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Jack Smith has filed a superseding indictment in the Jan 6 case, removing anything relating to official acts that the Supreme Court ruled are immune from prosecution.
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Harris and Walz first interview on CNN, Friday 2am, UK time.
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A double interview is a bit unusual. Walz has the best favourables of anyone in the race so they must be wanting to tap into that.
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Not good polls post DNC for Kamala so far. She hasn't lost any support in polls from their previous poll but no huge DNC bump, perhaps because they're now polling Trump correctly and it's hard to knock up 2020 margins against that 45/46 support. Good news for her is that Silver's model gives her an 87% chance of winning the EC in a Dem +3 national environment, which all indicators point to rn.
It's hard to believe Haley and Michelle are still trading at 200 with 9 days until NC starts voting, that would be one for the courts to decide even if there was the political will to bring them in. They're pushing up the prices on Kamala and Trump, both now at least a 0.5% better price than Poly. |
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Betfair made politics forum available again, but made it read only. But if anyone wants to check some old election threads, now you can.
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Trump is going to be fuming when he sees the latest Fox News polls. Kari Lake is getting slaughtered in her Senate race.
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Lake looks done. AZ Police union endorsed Trump last weekend and then endorsed Lake's opponent, split ticket voting in full view. Question is do they drag Trump under in those states, they're not helping turnout.
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Lake is a bad candidate.
Royce White is something else though lol. I'd seen this guy a few times before, had no idea he was running in the Republican senate primaries. Stunned to see he won that  He was a BLM activist 4 years ago, became MAGA overnight and is now to the right of Trump. |
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Trump doesn't need help with turnout. I expect there may be more split ticket voters.
This is the point I forecast for Peak Kamala, and she is well below the 2020 Biden polling. Toss up polls in every battleground , compared to 6+ leads in most states last time. The chaperoned interview is absolute cringe. Even a bit 'weird'. |
