General Betting
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2024 US Election BETTING chat
2024 US Election BETTING chat
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Yep. At the bottom of the page, See Also: Trafalgar Group
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Who are the ones still just using landlines? You may as well advertise in good ole boys monthly for poll respondents
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LA Olympics needs a droning on competition, trump wins gold if he stays awake
Another dismal performance, i think he might go a couple of weeks after the debate |
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kamala still 1.01 for nominee in a few days haha
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It should already be settled IMO. They've already voted her nominee and she has accepted. An indication that Betfair are going to be super cautious settling these election markets.
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Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom, said: "Four years ago our US Presidential Election winner market broke all records to become the world's single biggest betting event, with £1.7 billion traded.
"With just 81 days to go, the market on the winner of the US Election has hit £50 million. This surpasses the £28m wagered at the same point during the 2016 election, and is only slightly below the £57m wagered at this point in 2020. |
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That's from the live blog
.https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/ Probably more money going to Poly instead this time, and affordability checks having an impact, but looks like its holding up. |
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same elsewhere, i dont think any site has settled it yet afaik
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It's settled on Poly, PI and the US facing books. We have a rule that explicitly says as a result of the 2024 Democratic National Convention, whereas the others may have said something along the lines of announced official nominee by the Democratic National Committee.
This is good enough for all the news sites and Wikipedia etc. to refer to her as the official nominee. If we take the rules on here literally than maybe there shouldn't be a winner at all, because she isn't becoming the nominee as a result of the convention. |
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oh yeah forgot poly settled it
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Trump chance of winning presidential election
16th of July, 2024: 72% Now: 44% (Polymarket) |
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Slight tightening of the odds. Been some good polls for Trump starting with that Fox one, a lot of them are GOP friendly pollsters though.
Maybe Kamala has consolidated the base and picked up the easily persuadable voters, but now it gets tougher to keep them and increase her lead. She has all next week to go again. |
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Vance's plane in emergency landing after door opened mid-flight, following Trump's fuel leak last week. Could be Iranians.
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Big move on Poly, Kamala back to evens and Trump 2.06ish
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NYT/Siena
Kamala up 5 AZ Kamala up 2 in NC Trump up 1 in NV Trump up 4 in GA GA disappointing for Kamala there but that's her biggest lead to date in AZ |
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So kamala leading 5-2 in purples, in a poll that has been traditionally poor for dems
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Rasmussen's 7 swing state polls are coming soon.
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bring on the Kamala at evens!
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I signed up with Poly today to dip my toes, but it just says deposits not available in your region (I'm in the UK) and trading is also not available. I will ask them and see what they say. Nowhere in their T&C do I see anything about the UK being a banned territory.
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You might have to use a VPN. There will be a way because USA users are banned but they still get around it.
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Yougov kamela +2 and actually +3 with no rfk
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Rasmussen michigan kamela +1
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So rasmussen has Trump winning the pv by 4 but losing MI and PA. Makes perfect sense
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Sounds consistent with Poly. They have Kamala and Trump tied at 49 but Kamala well ahead in the state betting markets.
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Now wash post/abc has kamala a full 10 ahead on favourability... 45 to 35
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After a few breathers for trump, normal service resumed today
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Ipsos +5 kamala
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I was just having a dig at the Poly prices and how the outright is out of sync with the state markets, didn't mean it literally. There's a theory that big donors/campaign put money in to the outright to make Trump more competitive but they don't bother with the state markets.
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I think that's more than a theory. Trump loves it, doesn't he. Being manipulated to keep him happy
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Yeah the prices get put up on polls sites all the time that Trump and his fans follow. Its cheap PR. In 2020 the prices here were not matching the polls or models, maybe they were matching internal polls or just being manipulated to appear competitive.
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Betfair taking little notice now
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most of the money gone on Kamala 1.01 for dem nom now.
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Joined: 05 Dec 19 | Topic/replies: 51,080 | Blogger: SamuelMertensBertens's blog
I signed up with Poly today to dip my toes, but it just says deposits not available in your region (I'm in the UK) and trading is also not available. I will ask them and see what they say. Nowhere in their T&C do I see anything about the UK being a banned territory. Use Hong Kong on vpn to deposit, some chap on reddit suggested it lol |
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In 2020 the prices here were not matching the polls or models
The market was a much more accurate guide than the polls in 2020. Polls indicated 85-15, market was typically 60-40 |