General Betting
2024 US Election BETTING chat
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I can't see them removing Trump, as bad as he is. I think a lot of the right-wing voters don't even want a Republican anymore, they want Trump, and there would be an inevitable huge backlash against his removal. I mean I guess they could remove him and Trump run as an independent but that's not going to help anyone.
Amazed Harris is still 1.95, great price IMO. Trump looks worse every day and he appears to have done his brains; venues won't host his rallies because he owes them a fortune and he doesn't have the cash to properly fund a campaign. As I see it, he's behind with no momentum, no strategy and no money. How does he possibly win from there? |
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He definitely has the cash, just doesn't want to pay it. Dems outspending them 10 to 1 online apparently. It's going in his scarper to dubai fund
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Yeah, that's a good point. Going to mug off his supporters one last time when he loses.
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The mistake people are making here - IMO - is looking at all these Trump interviews and press conferences, and assuming that the left wing reaction to them is the general reaction.
All these things, like the black journalists event etc are just regular Trump moments. They are not changing any minds at all. Meanwhile Kamala is totalling zero interviews/press conferences. |
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Why would Harris be doing interviews when she's out campaigning? Trump's doing them because he won't spend the money to campaign and hasn't got the energy, and trying to spin that narrative which of course you have bought hook, line and sinker. If it was the other way around it'd merely be "why isn't Harris campaigning?".
You seem to forget Trump lost last time, and he's against a better candidate and has declined in every sense. It's not a "mistake" to assume he is less likely to win this time around, it's merely looking at the facts. |
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Looking through the prism of it "not harming him" is totally flawed IMO. Maybe they aren't harming him, but that's because everyone thinks he's a mad old idiot anyway and can't go down in their estimation. Merely confirming that isn't going to win over a single voter. He is behind in the polls, so has to be better than Harris by a fair bit to overcome the inherent dislike of him and he's a million miles away from that.
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Trump needs more than his 42, 43 % toby
How is that happening? |
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I'm sure kamala just feels that, before the nomination, it's awkward and presumptive to do and interview as if you are the candidate.
Clearly she'll do some after the dnc |
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Maybe I missed them but Trump isn't doing any real adversarial interviews/press conferences either*
there was the one with the black journalists - that will live long in the memory |
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Err, Harris would win every state lol
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NC starts sending ballots out in the first week of September, I assume that's a hard deadline for any shenanigans in switching candidates. If so it isn't happening, he isn't going to drop out before the debate and the base hates Haley anyway.
The best and simple case for Trump winning is that he was under-polled in 16 and 20, a similar error sees him winning right now, and that's not taking into account any bounce Harris may have from becoming the nominee and choosing her VP. The floor is pretty high for Trump. |
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Tbf, look at it from the republican grandee perspective.
Replace him now and you have carnage and people trying to murder them. After defeat is far easier |
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Yep. Any campaign staff that bring this up will be sacked and replaced, any GOP politician will get the Kemp treatment. Rogan and Rittenhouse rebelled but then walked it back quickly after a backlash from the MAGA.
I think they're warming to Vance after the Sunday show interviews and that's what the money is for, come September/October he is probably the only alternative in a health event, assassination and the Trump hush-money sentencing, assuming he doesn't get replaced before then. |
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the gop are just going to have to wait out the trump era - they might only have to endure 3 more months
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I think jail is likely on 18th sept. Obviously he'll manage to avoid it before the election as Bannon managed with legal delays. Marchant will let him appeal before the sentence starts. So the election becomes a referendum on whether he goes to jail or not
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Merchan*
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That would boost turnout. There is a market on Poly which has prison at around 20%, that's not too shabby.
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Is anyone gonna explain how Trump gets replaced? What the process is etc..... Surreal to be reading this stuff
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Maybe the Haley backer is on this thread
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You seem to forget Trump lost last time, and he's against a better candidate and has declined in every sense.
It's not a "mistake" to assume he is less likely to win this time around, it's merely looking at the facts. He is not against a better candidate. He is not less likely to win. Kamala does not give interviews because when she was doing that in 2021 she was terrible and caused her to be very unpopular. Her poll lead is mostly a mirage that I would attribute to people who previously answered 'won't vote' responding to the massive media campaign on her behalf. As I've said media and others telling people Kamala is great will have diminishing returns as it goes on. She is in her honeymoon period but is still underperforming the Biden 2020 polling. |
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I expect Kamala will improve in the polls for the rest of this month. Then she will plateau before gradually slipping back. Might still have a poll lead at election week but it won't be much and it will turn out to be wrong when the votes get counted.
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Doddery Old Biden was The only reason Trump was ahead in the polls. He's gone, polls reverting to 2020-2022 levels.
Trump has lost what, 3 elections? Why is this one different? |
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She is either finding her rightful level in the polling or enjoying something akin to a convention bounce, time will tell I guess. I'm out pending more data.
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Polls probably out like last time (2022)
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Kamala improving in polls pretty fast, 9 up in Wisconsin
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i notice a trafalgar poll has the don +1 in arizona so kamala could be ahead there too
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Was just watching David Pakman saving how little polling there'd been in Arizona. One had trump up 8, another had kam up 4
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Abortion on the ballot in Arizona and a few other states, complicates it further.
Cook political swing state polls out in last few hours, Kam leading or tied in everyone state except Nevada. |
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Field dates on those are 2 weeks ago though so out of date really
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A good polling day for Harris
Cook swing states, Monmouth(A+)+5 national, Florida only 2 down with RFK One bit of good news for Trump was Yougov showing no change from last week, but thats probably an outlier, looks like she is still gaining. |
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RFK not allowed on the ballots in New York. Shall we expect this to happen in some other states as well? And favor Trump?
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Yes. It looks like he used this false address in gathering signatures for other states, and lawsuits will probably get filed in those if the appeal is upheld. But the Dems have withdrawn a challenge on this residency issue in Maine, they're probably realising that RFK hurts Trump now, the GOP can still launch challenges.
It looked a few weeks ago that RFK could drop out and endorse Trump, but that's been trending down since on Poly, now just 10%. |
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The democrats can afford to pay him more to stay in :)
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Yeah its starting to backfire on the GOP, I think it was Bannon that spent months trying to get RFK to run and the GOP donors that were funding him, whether they still have sway IDK.
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Seen the monmouth voter enthusiasm poll? Really astonishing!
Probably what is starting to move the market again now |