|
By:
Trump's last 'interview' was with weirdo musk.
is trump going to do any 'normal' interviews? I dunno about peak Harris, but peak Trump was 2016, 8 years ago. |
|
By:
the 2.04/2.06 magnet for both of them could have its work cut out tonight
|
|
By:
Those Bloomberg polls were well timed for Kamala backers. It was looking a relatively poor day but now she has flipped RCP's battleground map. Big divergence with Silver's model that expects the polls to be giving a convention bump, and all the other models which look like they just ride through it as normal.
Regarding past polling errors. The pollsters defenders say that past errors don't carry over, pollsters recalibrate for each cycle, and an error is just as likely to go either way. Some people look at things like the WA primary and special elections and can see if anything is off, it matches polling this year apparently. .https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/22/a-very-detailed-examination-of-the-washington-primary/ |
|
By:
i think she said as part of that teaser about having a republican in her cabinet
|
|
By:
looks like its over with no real damage
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
What did Harris say exactly?
|
|
By:
I know that you know that I know you were lying (again), tobermory. There is merely a personal curiosity to learn if you are going to own it for a change.
|
|
By:
Is an edy fact check imminent?
|
|
By:
edy • August 30, 2024 2:57 PM BST
I know that you know that I know you were lying (again), tobermory. There is merely a personal curiosity to learn if you are going to own it for a change. That's a no then I guess. Shame. The kids these days simply aren't what they used to be. |
|
By:
Back when I used to be young whippersnappers, the people had a basic set of morals, integrity, honour and backbone.
|
|
By:
They had hints that polling was wrong in 2020 but didn't address it.
Levy told me that, in 2020, the people working the phones for Siena frequently reported incidents of being yelled at by mistrustful Trump supporters. “In plain English, it was not uncommon for someone to say, ‘I’m voting for Trump—**** you,’” and then hang up before completing the rest of the survey, he said. (So much for the “shy Trump voter” hypothesis.) In 2020, those responses weren’t counted. This time around, they are. Levy told me that including these “partials” in 2020 would have erased nearly half of Siena’s error rate. If the polls say 60/40 Kam in November but the market says 50/50, Im probably not going to put any extra on Kam. Polling errors maybe but also Trump is more likely to contest the election and be layable in the days after a defeat. |
|
By:
Trump in a bit of a bind with Florida abortion vote. He said he would support it a couple of days ago but has now flipped after a backlash from the pro-life movement, potential to lose votes either way.
|
|
By:
Trump didn't handle that well though I think the number of votes lost would be tiny either way.
If someone has the right to abortion as a fundamental issue to them they likely have never voted Republican. While only the most fanatical pro life will dump Trump. eg someone like Matt Walsh is actually fanatical pro life, but he is still supporting Trump. |
|
By:
I read that article a while back re correcting the polls by including the 'Trump! fk you!' voters.
I'm a bit sceptical that it would account for half the error. Usually with a cold calling structure you have to persuade the person to agree a conversation before asking the key questions and people typically terminate the call at that point, though fairly politely. I think the 'shy' Trump supporters are more likely graduates who are working in environments where they dare not declare Trump support, and so get used to keeping it to themselves. |
|
By:
blood ell, i turned 50 today
1.99 trump, 2.1 harris makes total sense time to roll a fat one |
|
By:
so poly is going 24% she wins all 6 swings
interesting https://polymarket.com/event/will-kamala-harris-win-every-swing-state?tid=1725235152982 surely thats not going to happen |
|
By:
AZ, GE, MI, NV, PA, WI
|
|
By:
****, its ga isnt it ikll try again
|
|
By:
AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI
|
|
By:
****g bang on
|
|
By:
anyway, surely that wont happen
|
|
By:
Well, it's certainly more likely than trump winning them all
|
|
By:
There's probably only a couple of points difference between winning what she needs and winning all 6. Probably the same with Trump and the popular vote.
|
|
By:
Kamala leads on rasmussen lol
|
|
By:
Not a well respected poll, but still showing a big swing since the handover
|
|
By:
Interesting that the magas are saying one of their SC judges has gone a bit rogue, re voting decision in Arizona
|
|
By:
How far to we think the supreme court would go for trump? Obviously he'll get the nod in a bush gore scenario, but I'm thinking they wouldn't do anything where they'd be open to ridicule
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
I think there's a limit to those lengths
|
|
By:
not for a couple of them
|
|
By:
There's 9 iirc
|
|
By:
Reading between lines it seems that Thomas is starting to irk ACB
|
|
By:
They didn't save him in 2020 so he would need a bigger case and more evidence this time
|
|
By:
I suppose if it only came down to 1 or 2 states with a tight vote they could get involved, but that's like the bush gore scenario
|
|
By:
That's a fair point which is ignored by the market i think. Also kamala having casting vote in the event of the ec tie
|
|
By:
(that they did nothing in 2020)
|
|
By:
I suppose the most likely scenario rearing the head is trouble in georgia with the suspected interference and election board
|
|
By:
That's assuming the senate stays democrat of course. Or is it based on the existing senate anyway?
|