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By:
ericster
When: 10 Jul 19 09:17

Jul 9, 2019 -- 8:46PM, Dr Crippen wrote:


Not quite timbuctooth, if you can only obtain 10/11 then you'll have to up your game to 6 or more out of ten.Getting winners always take priority over taking a chancy inflated price, which will lead to that killer losing run.


I have, from time to time, given the subject of "value" some thought, I really don't get it, and Crippen's comment has prompted me to post. I don't want to seem more of a door-handle than I probably do already but surely, under-priced, over-priced, taking evens about a 2/1 shot even, a winner is a winner, isn't THAT the whole point of the exercise?

By:
Latalomne
When: 10 Jul 19 11:10
No, the whole point of the exercise should be to turn a profit.  How you achieve that is up to you.  You could have a 90% strike rate (how clever must you be to manage that Shocked?!?) at odds of 1.1 and still not show a profit. 

Whether you like it or not, the only way you will (can) make money in the long-term is by taking prices that are bigger than they should be.  IF you are making money long-term (to level stakes), whether you choose to accept it or not, you are, at least on average, making value plays.
By:
ericster
When: 10 Jul 19 13:12
1.1?
Are you serious?
Who on earth bets with those odds?
Well yes, I know, people obviously do, but, oh dear.
Surely if you're looking to bet and make money, well, I wouldn't want to be going much shorter than evens.
And okay, for an even money shot to look that good you might not be betting every day.
By:
reb
When: 10 Jul 19 13:26
Good,educational thread.
By:
Latalomne
When: 10 Jul 19 13:28
Value exists at all price ranges.  You said a winner is a winner.  I was merely taking it to an extreme to point out that that clearly is not the case.  And if you're not wanting to go shorter than evens, that at least shows you possess a level of price sensitivity, though it doesn't necessarily change anything with regard to value.
By:
The Management
When: 10 Jul 19 13:37
Hi Lata - I think you are wasting your breath mate - aye robot summed it up very well a few days ago:

aye robot    07 Jul 19 16:10 
Management is right of course; price is everything. All long term winners know this - at least all the ones I've ever met and I've met quite a few. Not everyone talks about it in mathematical terminology or explicitly calculates value, but they all know that price is everything. All bookies know it too, it's the basis of their living.

Winning by picking winners and ignoring the price is for films and fantasists.

Most people don't/can't/won't understand this because they don't find it intuitive or because it doesn't fit their idea of how they want the world to be. There is nothing you can do to explain to these people - I've given up trying. All you can do is thank them for playing, that's where the money comes from.
By:
Latalomne
When: 10 Jul 19 14:51
Hey TM.  Hope you're well, mate.  Ironically, I came very close to posting the same thing to you when you got involved the other day!  Laugh  It's very hard to keep quiet sometimes!  Excited
By:
The Management
When: 10 Jul 19 15:57
Hi mate - I'm good but missing my snooker!

We just have to hope and pray that "Lumpy" doesn't get a move during the transfer season (I still like to think of him as a bored premier league footballer) - we can't afford for him to get a big pay cut. Wink

I used to enjoy these "how much will I need to turn pro" threads all the time way back in the day - but all the interesting contributors seem to be banned or too bored to bother. Aye Robot is always an interesting read. Maybe we need to get a life mate, because I'm sure most of these threads are a wind-up nowadays - but I also sometimes find it too hard to keep quiet!

May the odds be ever in your favour. Cool
By:
aye robot
When: 11 Jul 19 01:34
I have, from time to time, given the subject of "value" some thought, I really don't get it...

Fair enough - I'm going to start super simple for anyone who doesn't understand, I'm not going to get into any discussions with anyone who says 'it's only value if it wins' or 'value is just an opinion' or whatever other brainless sh1t but I will answer sensible questions, here goes:

First a probability primer / recap (don't skip it):

The price of a bet reflects the market's probability of that outcome - e.g a selection priced at 3 (decimal) is given an implied probability of 0.333 (or 1/3 or or 33.33% if you prefer).

Although it's an unusual way of putting it I use the term 'the market's probability' deliberately, because the probability of an event is different depending on what you know about it, so different people will ascribe different probabilities to the same event and be equally correct.

This is very important and not obvious so let me really spell it out: The probability ascribed to an event happening isn't anything to do with the event itself, rather it describes the confidence with which we can make a prediction about the event given our information. Probability is perhaps best understood as the quantified description of information.

For example; say I have already tossed a coin and I know that it came up Heads, but you don't: If you said that the probability of the result being Heads was 0.5 (1/2, 50%) then you would be correct because that would accurately describe your information about the event, however my information means that my probability is 1 (100%). Both of these probabilities are 'true' and they are not in conflict. When a probability is 'true' that means that it correctly incorporates the available information. If you were to describe the probability that the coin should come up Heads as 0.6 (60%) then that would not be a true probability.

Although it's normal to say 'the probability of a coin toss coming up heads is 0.5' this is just shorthand and it's rather misleading, it's not the coin's probability, it's ours.

Now - applying that to sports betting:

Whatever you do you will win some bets and lose others. Value bettors accept this, they know that whether any given bet wins is neither here nor there because it's the total of all the wins and losses that counts.

You can only turn a profit if the rate at which your bets win (accounting for stakes) is higher than the market's probability of those outcomes (expressed as the price of your bets). It is totally impossible to win if this is not the case - that's basic maths. Value bettors focus on maximising this difference between the rate of winning and the market's implied probability of your winning. 

There are two basic ways of doing this:
1: You can have more or better information/analysis than the market - I think it's pretty obvious how this works: The market reaches a probability that X will win of 0.333 (the price is 3) but you have information that you know the market doesn't have or isn't correctly using. Your probability that X will win is 0.5 - so you have the chance to strike a positive value back bet. The only complication is that your belief that you have special information has to be correct otherwise your probability will not be true. Assuming that your information is good then your value comes from your elevated information state and not the market's probability being untrue.

2: You can look at the market itself and identify when it's not using its information well, in other words identify when the market's probability is not true. This is more complicated but fortunes are made like this. Typically it means identifying when the market's probability is being pushed out of whack by sentiment rather than information. In the simplest model the market incorporates all the information available to it perfectly and generates its probability rationally but in reality people get carried away and if you can identify the signals of that - or even just the circumstances in which it typically happens then you can get value bets just by going against sentiment.

To round up - not all winning gamblers think of themselves as value bettors, but that's what they are - every last one of them. Experts, traders, insiders, track-siders and botters - they're all value bettors.

In truth almost everyone has a rudimentary understanding of value - would you back Djokovic to win Wimbledon at 1.1? Probably not, what about at 10? Of course you would - that's value. If you care about prices then you're thinking about value. What usually confuses people is the idea of calculating value. That's fair enough because it can be fiendishly complicated, especially because most value bets are quite marginal. What's more the more marginal they are the more of them there are and the more likely you are to get them matched, so returns are maximised by accurately identifying slivers of edge - and that leaves little room for error.

Hope that helps.
By:
aye robot
When: 11 Jul 19 01:53
I suppose I should add that the average punter could be characterised and 'anti-value' because he believes that his analysis is superior to the market's but he is wrong. In failing to identify this he renders his probabilities untrue because he isn't correctly incorporating all of his information - which includes the market's probability. Thus his bets have a negative expectancy simply by virtue of his placing them.

It is often said that average players lose at their commission rate but in fact it's worse than that - the fact that there are net winners (albeit not many of them) must mean that the rest are losers even before commission.
By:
Latalomne
When: 11 Jul 19 09:05
Hey TM!

Yeah, me too, mate.  Won't be long before it starts to trickle back.  Not sure if it was just that the markets were more active during the Worlds, but Lumpy didn't seem to be trying to control the market at this year's like he did last.   I'd love to know the story, too.  Part of me wants it to be Grant!  LaughLaughLaugh

I think Dr C has been here too long for his posts to be genuine.  Some of the others, not so much. 

Catch up with you in a few weeks, no doubt.

Great post, Aye Robot!  Cool
By:
Gin
When: 11 Jul 19 09:58
Is this a good time to pose the "Monty Hall" question? ConfusedLaugh
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 11 Jul 19 20:01
You value merchants must back an enormous amount of drifters in the market. For where else is there better value than in one whose price has almost doubled before the off?

So is that the plan - select the one you think will win and if it drifts far enough back it?

Sounds like it to me.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 11 Jul 19 20:54
By the way how do you experts calculate the true chance of any runner to start with?

We've heard the lecture about the spin of a coin enough times.
So lets take a look at the real world. Betting on a horse.
Just how do you calculate when 6/4 should be 2/1 and vice versa?

You can't calculate it can you?
You can only hazard a guess based on; its current form, its best form, the likelihood that it will run to it best, whether the tongue tie will improve it or the cheek pads, or the new jockey they're trying. The going, the distance, the track the handicap rating. Was it placed lto, is it a consistent sort? And much more.
And not forgetting - does it look like its been placed to win?

And all that applies to every other runner in the race as well, if the comparison you're making in order to calculate a price is to be valid.
Also are there any being tried with a visor or blinkers, how would you factor that into you price?
It all has to be checked.
Oh and there's one there with decent form that's been racing abroad. What are you going to do about that one?

So do you still think you can weigh up the exact chance of each runner and put an accurate price on it?
If you can, I'd certainly like to meet you.

Because if you can't, any talk of value is simply hot air.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 11 Jul 19 20:58
One other thing. How do you choose the one with the best form?

How do you work out which one has the best form. What do you base it on?
By:
aye robot
When: 11 Jul 19 23:00
....You can't calculate it can you?

Of course I can - I do it ten times a second for every horse in every race. I've been making my living like this for a decade.

So do you still think you can weigh up the exact chance of each runner and put an accurate price on it?
Er - Yes. Like I said; 'I do it ten times a second....'

I don't have a problem working out contingent probabilities (how other horses in a race effect the probability horse X winning) because there's maths for that. Maths doesn't stop at long division - there is maths for everything.

If you can, I'd certainly like to meet you.
I'm kinda washing my hair. There are plenty of us though - maybe one of the others....?

All of this said, it's not necessary to actually price outcomes to determine whether they have value. You can generally tell if one courgette is bigger than another without measuring the exact difference - value bets can be found in the same way. If you're able to determine that a market price isn't true and which way it's biased then that's enough information to strike a value bet. Likewise if you know that your information is better than the market's you can reasonably say 'that price is a bit long' and bet accordingly - exactly how much it's long by doesn't really matter.

Obviously it's better if you can quantify your value but there are plenty of value bettors who can't or don't. Typically these are sports experts or insiders who have relatively few bets with higher average value rather than maths oriented people like me.

You value merchants must back an enormous amount of drifters in the market...
Not personally - no. I don't see any obvious reason to believe that horses that have drifted will show value. In any case that would be such a simple strategy that everyone would be onto it.

That said - I specialise in IR so I wouldn't really know.

Look - just because something isn't simple or obvious, or just because YOU can't do it or understand how it's done - that doesn't mean it can't be done. I can't play the saxophone and I have no idea how Higg's Bosons give mass to matter - I don't understand it. And yet.....

Sh1t I said I wasn't going to do this. I just can't stop myself.
By:
The Management
When: 12 Jul 19 09:26
I always enjoy reading your posts Aye Robot - but I must admit I am a little disappointed in the calculations you have used to quantify the potential risk versus the potential reward of meeting up with the poster on an anonymous internet forum that has named himself after a notorious murderer.Crazy Shocked
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 12 Jul 19 09:43
Obviously it's better if you can quantify your value but there are plenty of value bettors who can't or don't.

Neither they nor you can quantify how they come to their conclusion of value, because what they claim they can calculate is nothing more than a guess, and if they win in the long run its because they're good at picking winners, not getting 6/4 for what they guess should be 6/5.

That said - I specialise in IR so I wouldn't really know.

Yes I agree with that - you don't know because the subject is too complex to do what you claim.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 12 Jul 19 09:48
aye robot    07 Jul 19 16:10

Management is right of course; price is everything.


Then
aye robot 11 Jul 19 23:00

Not personally - no. I don't see any obvious reason to believe that horses that have drifted will show value.

So which one is it?

You having a larf? I thought I was supposed to be the troll here.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 12 Jul 19 09:52
Yes I agree with that - you don't know because the subject is too complex to do what you claim.

What I referred to there was the claim that you can accurately calculate value.
Which I've shown is too complex to achieve.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 12 Jul 19 09:56
As for The Management - he's completely out of his depth here.
By:
Latalomne
When: 12 Jul 19 10:04
LaughLaughLaugh
By:
G Hall
When: 12 Jul 19 10:13
This may be a stupid question but let's take a football match.

The odds of over 0.5 goals is say 1.02 pre match but after 15 minutes is say 1.04/1.05 is that then a value bet at the latter odds.
By:
The Management
When: 12 Jul 19 10:29
G Hall    12 Jul 19 10:13 
This may be a stupid question but let's take a football match.

The odds of over 0.5 goals is say 1.02 pre match but after 15 minutes is say 1.04/1.05 is that then a value bet at the latter odds.


Are you and Dr C having a competition to see who can post the biggest wind-up? Devil

I can't even be bothered to respond to him - but you seem like a trier and god loves a trier

So obviously the answer to your question is to wait till half-time - by which point the price will have drifted even further and will be even better value. Wink Everybody knows there are more goals in the second half than the first half.Cry
By:
The Management
When: 12 Jul 19 11:04
The Management's Exclusive Top Pro Tip For The Day:

It's a little known fact that most pro punters are either a little bit OCD or slightly on the spectrum - So to give yourself a better chance of making it pay with my - ACT LIKE A PRO - TIP FOR THE DAY -

On Sundays when you have laid the 0-0 in the 17:30 Barcelona game at 44.0 for your whole balance. If it's getting close to 90 minutes and there is still no goal, rearrange all the objects on your desk into straight lines, plug your mobile phone into the charger (even if it's already at 100%) and make sure all of your loose change is facing heads side up, then rub your lucky stapler (clockwise only). Now click over onto the Over 0.5 goals market take a deep breath and visualise that big red suspended sign.

Repeat as necessary with Real Madrid afterwards.
By:
G Hall
When: 12 Jul 19 11:38
Why not go in again after 85 minutes and lay the 0-0
By:
The Management
When: 12 Jul 19 11:48
You aren't cut out for this at all G Hall - as a pro punter you will need to develop an eye for the fine detail:

On Sundays when you have laid the 0-0 in the 17:30 Barcelona game at 44.0 for your whole balance.

As a pro punter you have to TOTALLY commit to your bets.
By:
The Management
When: 12 Jul 19 11:51
Also from about 85 minutes onward I am busy straightening up everything on my desk and sorting out my loose change. Blush

Pay attention ffs Cry
By:
The Management
When: 12 Jul 19 14:26
G Hall - sorry if I ruined your Fred (sic) again but the bloke I normally banter with appears to have been sectioned and in all fairness - you and Dr Cripps were already taking it downhill faster than Franz Klammer!
By:
Gin
When: 12 Jul 19 14:51
The facts are these:

You can back all the winners you want but if the bets you are making have a negative EV (ie are bad value) you will lose money in the long run.

You don’t have to be able to accurately price every outcome up but if you are consistently making money in the long run then you can be sure that the bets you are making have a positive EV (ie are good value).
By:
G Hall
When: 12 Jul 19 16:30
No problem T M I enjoy the banter who the heck is Franz klammer
By:
The Management
When: 12 Jul 19 16:40
Me too - re Franz - Google him - he went downhill fast!
By:
ericster
When: 12 Jul 19 18:25

Jul 12, 2019 -- 4:40PM, The Management wrote:


Me too - re Franz - Google him - he went downhill fast!


Lol TM.

By:
Dr Crippen
When: 12 Jul 19 20:26
We never get specifics from the value merchants.

Only stuff like ''you can't win without getting value''

Yet when you ask them how they calculate value, they just go off on a theoretical rant which proves that they haven't got a clue where to start in calculating what they term to be a value price.
Their idea of value in any betting situation will be nothing more than a guess.

Of course I wouldn't be surprised if the word ''value'' in betting was invented by the tipping services as a way of explaining their inability to find winners, in order keep the mugs on the hook for as long as possible.

''Stick with us and you'll come good because all these losers we're giving out are value bets. Sure to come out on top in the end.''

Well that's what I'd tell them if I ran a tipping service that hit the rocks.
By:
aye robot
When: 13 Jul 19 09:39
The frustrating thing about all this is that there are any number of interesting things to talk about and when there's a reasonable question I quite like trying to formulate an informative answer.

No-one can prove their credentials here but I genuinely am one of betfair's more successful players. I'm not in the absolute top flight but as an individual one-man-band type operator I'm pretty well up there and have been for some time. I've also met all kinds of interesting people who operate differently to me who will never talk to anyone here and listened what they had to say.

I'm perfectly placed to offer the inside track on all sorts of things, and yet; all I get to work with is the same old moronic b0ll0cks. So seriously, anyone - ask me a sensible question and I'll give you a serious answer.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 13 Jul 19 11:09
The value merchants must be the only set of punters who can back a loser and then feel satisfied that they've achieved something.

Next time eh?
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 13 Jul 19 11:16
The frustrating thing about all this is that there are any number of interesting things to talk about and when there's a reasonable question I quite like trying to formulate an informative answer.

That's admirable aye robot, then perhaps you'd care to address this? 

Dr Crippen 11 Jul 19 20:58

One other thing. How do you choose the one with the best form?

How do you work out which one has the best form. What do you base it on?
By:
The Management
When: 13 Jul 19 12:10
Dr Crippen 11 Jul 19 20:58

One other thing. How do you choose the one with the best form?
How do you work out which one has the best form. What do you base it on?


Betfair very kindly will usually put the one with the best form at the top of the page for you.
My educated guess (although it is just a guess) would be that Horse Racing Form might be one of the very few things that you know more about than Aye Robot. I would venture to guess that it is almost irrelevant to him.

He's told you he specialises in-running and I think he's rather good at maths. I don't play IR horses but I look at the graph after the races sometimes and I wish I had worked harder at school instead of studying form!
By:
Latalomne
When: 13 Jul 19 12:11
Even if you find the one with "the best form" (whatever you may mean by that), the very fact that you have found what you consider to be the most likely winner still does not mean you should back it regardless of price.

I bet things that I don't expect to happen all the time, because I consider the outcome to be priced incorrectly.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 13 Jul 19 13:50
If you rate every horse in a race, then their RANK position can indicate "VALUE" when you check their ODDS against RANK position.

Of course you have to use MANY FACTORS to rate each horse. You also have to be "consistent" with points you allocate to each horse. There are "subjective" decisions made as well............and you have to "good" at making them, otherwise the RATINGS would not be good enough to provide consistency of HIGH STANDARD ratings.
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