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Betting for a living

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By:
aye robot
When: 18 Jul 19 15:03
Perhaps I'm wrong though

Actually maybe I wasn't fair to DFC - he uses 'can' and 'could' quite well - maybe enough to make himself right.

His fundamental conjecture is that the best horse ought to be the favourite, the second best the second favourite and so on. I don't see anything wrong with that.

However it doesn't follow that if the best horse isn't the favourite then it MUST be value - although it very often will be. I don't think DFC asserts that it will always offer value in those circumstances - so he's right.

If he did assert that then he would be wrong. It's perfectly possible for the best horse not to be favourite and yet also not to offer value, although in those circumstances there must be value somewhere in the market - albeit not necessarily around those horses.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Jul 19 15:09
Perhaps I'm wrong though

No you're spot on DFCIRONMAN

And the only one to come near to explaining the case for value properly.

Value is the odds available judged against the chances of winning.
If ratings were your sole criterion, then one only has to compare the odds on offer against the ratings, to see what is value and what is not.
By:
aye robot
When: 18 Jul 19 15:16
Nice of DC to pop up and illustrate how DFC could have got it wrong....


This bit:
then one only has to compare the odds on offer against the ratings, to see what is value and what is not.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Jul 19 15:21
Fair enough put AR.Cool

Only comments I can make is .....a horse race is not MATHS...and it depends on how well the RATINGS stand using the "subjective" input part in forming them.


I know this is "simplistic" way to see VALUE when looking at RANK positions and odds. If a horse is 3rd top rated, then I crudely take that with two horses ranked above it as being 2-1 SP. If the horse is actually 3-1 SP....then it is a VALUE bet.

This is just focussing on any of the top 5 FAVOURITES in market being in top 5 RANK positions in RATINGS.

MATHS theory is useful....but rating a horse race is extremely hard to do and when it is also necessary to use "subjective" input to arrive at the ratings, then it all depends on how many edges are used in that part of input.

GL with whatever method used in bet selections.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Jul 19 15:22
Ooooooooopppppppppsssssss....never saw the last few posts!
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Jul 19 15:30
Aye robot seems to be contradicting everyone on principle here, without explaining a thing himself.

If you can't compare your criterion or criteria against the odds on offer, then what on earth do you compare the odds on offer with?
By:
aye robot
When: 18 Jul 19 15:34
Ooooooooopppppppppsssssss....never saw the last few posts!

yeah sorry had to correct myself.

Just to illustrate for anyone who doesn't get it:

Say you had 4 horses (A, B, C and D) and the market made them 0.5, 0.4, 0.05, 0.05 (which would be 2, 2.5, 20, 20) but you had some superior insight that allowed you to rank them B, A, C, D - it could perfectly well be that your IPs ought to be 0.3, 0.35, 0.2, 0.15 - in which case the value backs would be C and D. Despite being the best horse and despite not being the favourite horse B would still be value to lay.

That's why DFC's approach doesn't fully stack up mathematically - even though it's a perfectly sensible heuristic.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Jul 19 15:34
Maybe aye robot is an astrologer?

He works it all out from the position of the moon and stars.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Jul 19 15:37
AR - is very strong on using MATHS....and why not! AY did set out , by way of post at 11.25, one way to arrive at VALUE.....though I was "lost" in trying to follow that post!

Always like to read AY's thoughts on horse races etc Cool
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Jul 19 15:38
11.25 on 16 July.
By:
jamesdean
When: 18 Jul 19 15:39
Dr Crippen
07 Jul 19 12:09
Joined: 16 Apr 02 | Topic/replies: 39,489 | Blogger: Dr Crippen's blog

A decent price is nothing if it loses.
Bookies built their empires from people backing losers at good prices





Just read this. Has to be fishing, fair play Dr. that is some haul!
By:
aye robot
When: 18 Jul 19 15:39
He works it all out from the position of the moon and stars.

Er - no - I use a computer. Why do you think my forum name is Aye ROBOT.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Jul 19 15:40
.though I was "lost" in trying to follow that post!

You're supposed to get lost reading it.

If it can't be explained in simple terms then it's bullshine.
By:
aye robot
When: 18 Jul 19 15:46
If it can't be explained in simple terms then it's bullshine

If the universe is infinite then how come it's expanding?
What's quantum entanglement?
How does gravity work?

Simple terms only please.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Jul 19 16:22
Very good aye robot.

What's that got to do horse racing?
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Jul 19 16:24
Should be:

What's that got to do with horse racing.
By:
aye robot
When: 18 Jul 19 16:31
What's that got to do with horse racing.

There are lost of things that are difficult to understand or difficult to explain that are not - as you put it 'bullshine'.

Value is one of them - I do my best to use simple terms but seemingly sometimes I just can't make it simple enough.

As far as your earlier question about why a rank isn't sufficient to indicate value goes I covered it in response to DFC at 15:43.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Jul 19 16:52
AR ....re the example posted above -



Say you had 4 horses (A, B, C and D) and the market made them 0.5, 0.4, 0.05, 0.05 (which would be 2, 2.5, 20, 20) but you had some superior insight that allowed you to rank them B, A, C, D - it could perfectly well be that your IPs ought to be 0.3, 0.35, 0.2, 0.15 - in which case the value backs would be C and D. Despite being the best horse and despite not being the favourite horse B would still be value to lay.

That's why DFC's approach doesn't fully stack up mathematically - even though it's a perfectly sensible heuristic.
=====================================================

As both A and B are NOT VALUE lays.....I would not LAY either one.

Neither would I BACK C or D.

Generally , with my RATINGS and the FAVOURITE in market is TOP RATED......generally it WINS.

If it was  2nd TOP RATED.....then it could still win as it is still VALUE odds of 2-1SP.

Presumably there would be 3 other of the top 5 favourites in the example given.........and if looking for a LAY it would come from them in PLACE market ..... though as with your example the winner is likely to come from the top 2 rated.....LAYING to WIN  all 3 of the top 5 favourites below the 2 of A and B in RANKING would appear to be "good" VALUE lays, depending on their odds to RANK position.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Jul 19 16:53
Admit it aye robot you're a fraud.
I wrote this which was perfectly reasonable:

If ratings were your sole criterion, then one only has to compare the odds on offer against the ratings, to see what is value and what is not.

Then you quoted it leaving out the crucial bit in bold as:

''then one only has to compare the odds on offer against the ratings, to see what is value and what is not.''

That's pretty sharp practise when you're quoting someone.

You strike me as a bit of a rascal my friend.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Jul 19 16:58
He's winding us up DFCIRONMAN.

If you corner him he comes out with a technical explanation that no one including himself can understand.

It's called bullshine baffles brains.

It's a tactic that's as old as the hills.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Jul 19 17:03
I believe AR is a knowledgeable person....and NOT a ROBOTDevilGrin....and they are genuine in posting.Cool
By:
aye robot
When: 18 Jul 19 17:20
DFC; it's just a toy example to illustrate the maths - and it's correct. You can't compare ranking to price and present that as maths because whilst there will be a relationship between rank and price, rank and price are not the same thing (apples and oranges). Your approach is heuristic (a rule of thumb) and there's nothing wrong with that - you just can't make a mathematics style assertion about it.

I wrote the explanation because I thought it illustrated an interesting point and I hope you won't take it personally. Like I said (a few times) I don't think there's anything inherently wrong with your approach.

DC - I tried to quote the most relevant part of your sentence to show what I was referring to, had I quoted the whole sentence the answer would have been the same, your assertion is not correct. DFC didn't make an emphatic statement, that's why he wasn't wrong. You did make an emphatic statement and that's why you were.

Value is a mathematical concept, you can't talk about it without it being about maths, there's no use posting up some maths and the complaining when it's pointed out that it doesn't add up.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Jul 19 17:31
Well phrased AY........and very fair comment/statementCool
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Jul 19 17:31
Oooooopppppssss ....AR
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Jul 19 17:31
Aye robot you mention you bet in running.

I'd like to see you doing your mathematical calculations during a five furlong sprint.

I suggest you might miss the boat a few times.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Jul 19 17:34
DFCIRONMAN, looks like you've fallen for the bullshine hook line and sinker.

But don't let him sell you anything, you might be disapointed.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Jul 19 17:35
disappointed.
By:
aye robot
When: 18 Jul 19 17:42
I'd like to see you doing your mathematical calculations during a five furlong sprint.

That's exactly what I do. Every five furlong sprint - and every other race. I am totally up front about what I do and always have been, it's even in my forum name- I write algorithms that calculate value and bet in running. That's why I'm an expert at it - it's my living.

Has anyone ever seen me offer an opinion about a Horse? A boxer? A football team? Never; because I don't know anything about those things. Say what you like about sport and you won't hear the merest peep out of me. What I know about is Value; how to find it, how to quantify it, how to get it. I'm not guessing or speculating or making it up, it's what I actually do and I make very good money from it.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Jul 19 17:54
It's good of you to take so much time off from your money making to write on here aye robot.

This thread must be costing you a fortune.
By:
aye robot
When: 18 Jul 19 17:57
Algorithms.. they run on computers. I don't have to pedal the computer do I.
By:
aye robot
When: 18 Jul 19 18:00
....aye robot.....? Can you seriously not put that together?
By:
The Management
When: 18 Jul 19 18:03
Cripps - get back to chit-chat, the folk over there are desperate to know what is your favourite cheese imo.

Aye Robot - can I ask you some questions?
By:
aye robot
When: 18 Jul 19 18:08
yeah 'course.
By:
The Management
When: 18 Jul 19 18:11
Cheers - I have to pop out right now - but curious/interested in a few things related to IR horses - I will post a few questions when I get back. Obviously no rush or obligation to answer. Thank you.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Jul 19 18:14
I see The Management is impressed. He'd fall for the three card trick.

That's your first customer aye robot.
By:
aye robot
When: 18 Jul 19 18:15
Cool - I'm going out for the evening too but I'll have a look tomorrow.

Obviously there's a limit to what I'll say because it's my living and I can't give it away but barring that I'll answer the best I can.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Jul 19 18:21
Don't worry aye robot, The Management is a bigger bullshiner than you.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 18 Jul 19 19:38
Dr,what kind of strike rate do you run at with horses.
By:
The Management
When: 19 Jul 19 11:12
Aye Robot - I haven't played IR horses (apart from Stewards Enquiries) for many years so apologies in advance for any ignorance. Things that I am curious about or that intrigue me, all a bit random and in no particular order:

1) Do you actually need to watch the races at all - if so what medium/channel do you use to watch them?
2) Is it an issue for you (with the false %) when there is a very late withdrawal/NR that stays in the IR market?
3) Do you get matched on a lot of perceived value bets when horses refuse to race/fall etc?
4) Do you play to the very end of the races or are you out of the market before the end?
5) If you are out before the end do you use expected time to cover the race distance to quit the race at a certain point?
6) If so, at what point (in expected distance covered) would you exit say a 5f race?
7) Do you use different methodology for flat versus jumps, sprint versus longer distance etc?
8) Do you have a preferred race type/race make up - i.e. is there a type of race or distance where players typically make more mistakes or make the biggest over-reactions?
9) Did you ever seed the Exchange Games Markets?
10) Did you have to significantly alter the way you play after Bf introduced the cross-matcher (and were you doing this yourself before BF started doing it)?
11) If you were playing back then (Dec 2011 i think) - what was your position on the Voler la Vedette race prior to it being voided?
12) What do you think actually went wrong in that race?

I very much appreciate you being open to questions and obviously fully understand if you can't/won't answer any of them. I hope they're not all too daft!
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 19 Jul 19 11:32
Phew The Management you've bowled a few googlies there.
Aye robot said it's all done by his bot.

Perhaps for question 2 and 3 he sets a price change limit to take these out of his book?
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