Forums

General Betting

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 379 comments are related to the topic:
Betting for a living

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 6 of 10  •  Previous | 1 | ... | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ... | 10 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 379
By:
The Management
When: 19 Jul 19 12:03
DC - I think i'll wait for the Organ Grinder, Ta.
By:
aye robot
When: 19 Jul 19 12:33
Hi Management:

1) Do you actually need to watch the races at all - if so what medium/channel do you use to watch them?
No, I'm fully automated.

2) Is it an issue for you (with the false %) when there is a very late withdrawal/NR that stays in the IR market?
Yes and no - when a runner is withdrawn late the cross-matcher gets switched off and that's published over the API so I always know that it's happened and I can usually pick up which runner it is. That means I can exploit it as an opportunity because for obviously there's a lot of mis-pricing in those markets. Over all I do very well on them, although on occasions I have misidentified the withdrawn runner and that does cost. I think some of the more naive automated players get wiped out on them which suits me fine.

3) Do you get matched on a lot of perceived value bets when horses refuse to race/fall etc?
No. Not my bag. I want a lot of bets on every race so I'm trying to price the 'normal' circumstances rather than looking for the odd freak outcome.

4) Do you play to the very end of the races or are you out of the market before the end?
I'm in it start to finish, although mostly when a lot of money starts matching.

5) If you are out before the end do you use expected time to cover the race distance to quit the race at a certain point?
No - but I adapt my strategy a bit according to where I think the race is. I can only really do that for flat races though, the expected running times of NH races are too hard to predict. 

6) If so, at what point (in expected distance covered) would you exit say a 5f race?
NA - see above.

7) Do you use different methodology for flat versus jumps, sprint versus longer distance etc?
Absolutely, they're very different. They way I tot the value up is very similar but it's harder to actually get hold of the value on NH markets so my thresholds are different and  my execution is different.

8) Do you have a preferred race type/race make up - i.e. is there a type of race or distance where players typically make more mistakes or make the biggest over-reactions?
There's far more opportunity in flat races, beyond that I don't differentiate between grades of race or whatever. I do know which markets are likely to offer the most value but it doesn't change my strategy because I'm always just trying to take whatever value comes available. There's far more variation within any given type of market than there is between different types of market.


9) Did you ever seed the Exchange Games Markets?
No, not my thing.

10) Did you have to significantly alter the way you play after Bf introduced the cross-matcher (and were you doing this yourself before BF started doing it)?
I had to adapt a lot. The introduction had a huge impact on my play and for the first year after it I took a big reduction in profits. Since then I've become a much better player and I do better now than I ever did before. I was never cross-matching myself, the impact of it was simply that it removed a lot of the best value opportunities. That would be the same for a +ev manual player too. Pre XM it was much easier and that allowed me to get started, it would be harder now.

11) If you were playing back then (Dec 2011 i think) - what was your position on the Voler la Vedette race prior to it being voided?
I remember the incident. That race was so obviously wrong that my bots couldn't make sense of it and more or less sat it out, they do that for safety. I think I was green on it but not for fortunes (I honestly don't remember).

12) What do you think actually went wrong in that race?
I have no idea.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 19 Jul 19 12:46
DC - I think i'll wait for the Organ Grinder, Ta.

Still sore at me from when I smacked your bottom before eh The Management?

Well never mind, time is a great healer. You'll get over it.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 19 Jul 19 12:50
peckerdunne, I rarely discuss stuff about myself.

But the art of finding winners at decent prices has little to do with seeking value.

Like I say, everybody thinks they're an expert at interpreting form when they're not. And there's much more to it than form.
As Rumsfeld said:
''But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.''
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 19 Jul 19 12:54
I remember The Management ruining a similar threat before with his tantrums after I'd disagreed with him.
I hope he isn't about to do the same here.
By:
The Management
When: 19 Jul 19 13:14
Thanks Aye Robot - I really appreciate you taking the time. You have confirmed what I already knew - I am most definitely what you would call old-school and I know I have failed to adapt quickly enough over the years. I still have the ideas but I think the way I go about exploiting opportunities (my execution of my ideas) would probably make you laugh!

I do find it fascinating how people with (by your own admission) limited knowledge of sport can use their knowledge in other areas to beat people that have dedicated their lives to studying a sport. Thanks again.



As for you DC - as they say on the Horse Racing forum - foyDC
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 19 Jul 19 13:26
^^^See what I mean about The Management and his tantrums.

He simply can't help himself
By:
The Management
When: 19 Jul 19 13:37
Dr Crippen - below is "your contribution" to the thread that I then "ruined".

Are you still avoiding NH races in case of Bad Luck? - Or have you now bought some Lucky Heather to mitigate? LaughLaughBlush


Dr Crippen    20 Mar 19 13:43 
For some time I've looked upon NH racing as a poor betting medium for the serious punter.
Take the recent Cheltenham meeting where the favourite with the race won and with Walsh aboard falls at the final hurdle.
I recall another where the hot favourite breaks it's leg at an early stage.
I watched a hurdle race yesterday where the most likely winner started to idle when in front, then got caught on the line and was immediately dismounted. 
The professional's comment is supposed to be that luck equals itself out. Which is complete tosh.

There's no law that says luck will even itself out, in fact many have gone broke waiting for their ill fortune to change, when examination of their bets simply show bad luck in running.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 19 Jul 19 14:20
More evidence of The Management's lack of temperament.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 19 Jul 19 14:20
Excellent post from me there by the way.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 19 Jul 19 14:28
And just to indicate how far the Management is out of his depth, I'll quote Patrick Veitch who was spot on when he said:

''Oh, and avoid the jumps: far too unpredictable,'' he says.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/5453310/Patrick-Veitch-Tormentor-of-the-bookies.html
By:
The Management
When: 19 Jul 19 14:30
DC - I refer you to my previous reply: 

The Management    25 Mar 19 12:28

Other sports you should avoid because of luck are: football (team bus might crash), snooker (cue might snap), basketball (I don't trust tall men), Flat racing (I don't trust short men), Rugby Union & League (Ball bounces funny), Tennis (I suffer from time travel sickness), Formula One (probably ok to be fair - but life is just too short isn't it?).

Finally, be lucky----- ditch your spreadsheets, analysis and odds compilation -------and invest in a four leafed, black rabbits foot shaped like a horseshoe. Rub it (clockwise only) on 3rd Wednesday of months containing letter R and on full moons at high tide.


Stay Lucky DC Cry
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 19 Jul 19 14:42
There he goes again.

''There's none so blind as those who will not see.''
By:
peckerdunne
When: 19 Jul 19 14:49
Dr, iv'e asked one simple question which you choose not to answer.

Do you know what your'e strike rate is.Why not reveal that one small piece of information, it surely can't be a state secret.

You do have an awful lot to say about other people but wont answer this one little question.

Are you just ungenuine.
By:
aye robot
When: 19 Jul 19 14:52
Management - I think we all have our day and then someone comes along and does it differently and that's just how it is. I've done well recently but I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out that I'm at my peak or even past it already. My winnings will certainly tail off at some point and I'm fine with it. I think anyone who manages to win and take their winnings away without losing them back has done something pretty remarkable, albeit not particularly noble or useful.

I've had a great run at this and it's made my future a lot more secure. I'm deeply grateful for that but I don't want to be a gambler forever. I take satisfaction from winning at a game that's designed to to be winnable, but I couldn't say I'm particularly proud of what I've done. Of this whole experience one of the things that really sticks in my mind is meeting people for whom it's all going wrong in a major way and it's awful. I didn't cause that, but I found it distressing and I don't like being connected to their demise even tangentially.

I like what I do, it's challenging, interesting and rewarding, but one day it'll be over and when that day comes I think I'll be glad.
By:
aye robot
When: 19 Jul 19 14:54
sorry - typo, meant:

'....from winning at a game that's designed not to be winnable....'
By:
The Management
When: 19 Jul 19 15:10
AR - I get that. As a young man (a very long time ago!), I briefly worked in the industry. It's not pretty what it does to some people.

I think we have an epidemic of problem gamblers ahead of us with women and children being specifically targeted like never before -  so I guess it will get uglier before it gets better.
By:
aye robot
When: 19 Jul 19 15:18
I agree. It's nasty - even all this gambling in computer games is really insidious. I think capping fobts is a good start. I know a guy who worked on them, essentially his job was to maximise their addictiveness and the stories he told were horrifying.
By:
The Management
When: 19 Jul 19 15:31
I may be out of touch, so maybe this already happens but I'm amazed there isn't more focus given to gambling awareness in schools.

I know they get visits focused on smoking and drugs etc but in my experience alcohol and gambling cause way more problems and are problems that can last a lifetime.

Maybe you could ease your conscience AR by giving a bit back - either devise some interesting content for others to deliver or even visit some schools yourself to demonstrate the mathematical folly of gambling. I am intrigued by the chemical aspect to problem gambling too - but whichever route taken - I think it's a topic that could be very effectively taught in a very interactive and fun/interesting manner if the person delivering it was imaginative. Food for thought.
By:
aye robot
When: 19 Jul 19 15:46
'Hi my name's Robot and I made a lot of money gambling, don't do it kids....'

Think it might not fly.

I can explain the maths to people 'till I'm blue in the face and it makes no difference at all.....

The trouble with gambling is that so many people feel like it's possible for them when it isn't, and somehow failure doesn't put them off. Like you say - it's chemical.
By:
The Management
When: 19 Jul 19 15:59
Fair enough - I suppose you have a point.

I do agree that trying to explain the maths to somebody that is already chemically addicted is futile - but i think the maths/chemistry approach would be a more interesting and effective way to educate young people that haven't yet been sucked in.

The chemistry/Biology etc is really fascinating - how can some people be recreational gamblers (a bit of fun/entertainment) and others let it take over their life? I just wonder if there isn't either scope for a test to see if you are susceptible or even a medicinal cure.
By:
The Management
When: 19 Jul 19 16:45
An interesting exert from a Canadian study on slot machines - no doubt equally applicable to FOBT's and especially roulette where I guess every losing spin is a "near-miss".

Studies to date have shown that near-misses support persistent gambling and activate brain areas that reinforce certain behaviors. If near-misses are seen as near-wins, then they should be pleasurable. If, however, near-misses are highly frustrating losses, then they should be unpleasant.

Dr Dixon’s team measured the time between the result of a spin and the initiation of the next spin following losses, near-misses and wins of various sizes among 122 participants as they played a slot machine simulator.

Of the 122 gamblers, 22 were non-problem gamblers, 37 were at risk players and 23 were problem gamblers. The researchers also assessed the players’ frustration levels by measuring the rate at which electricity travels through the skin. Skin responses reflect psychophysical changes as a result of frustration.

The analyses showed that progressively larger wins led to longer pauses between spins and increased arousal levels. Near-misses with jackpot symbols landing on the first two reels led to significantly larger skin responses than regular losses and other types of near-misses. In addition, the gamblers were compelled to repeat the spin as quickly as possible after this type of near miss.

“By activating what we call the appetitive component of the mesolimbic rewards system, these near-misses may help a player develop a hopeful, subjective impression that the next win is imminent,” Dr Dixon said. “This might ultimately contribute to the sensitization of the appetitive system, which plays a key role in addictive behavior.”
By:
The Management
When: 19 Jul 19 16:54
Also interesting from a Cambridge study.....

.......of the Behavioural and Clinical Neuroscience Institute in Cambridge have previously found that the brain responds to near miss gambling outcomes in much the same way it does to as winning. In moderate gamblers, both types of outcome activate the reward circuitry, and although near miss events are experienced to be somewhat less rewarding than wins, they nevertheless increase the desire and motivation to gamble. For games involving skill, near misses indicate an improvement in performance and spur the player to try again. But gambling is a game of chance, which distorts gamblers' thought processes - near misses cause them gambler to overestimate both the level of skill involved and their chances of winning. This spurs them to continue gambling.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 19 Jul 19 22:19
the mice get to the cheese and receive an electric shock and each time they go back for the cheese the shock increases but still they come back
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 20 Jul 19 09:43
Those two reports are a bigger load of bullshine than aye robot's explanation of value.

Anybody you meet could tell you that gambling gives you a buzz and some people get addicted to it.

There's no need to commission a report about it other than to find educated types something to do for a living and waste taxpayers money.
By:
The Management
When: 20 Jul 19 11:10
The Management    18 Jul 19 18:03 
Cripps - get back to chit-chat, the folk over there are desperate to know what is your favourite cheese imo.


They are now betting:

1.91 Brie
1.91 Camembert

The shroodies got the value with Lactose Intolerant each way at 34.00
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 20 Jul 19 11:15
^^Are there he is.

He always comes running when I whistle, just like a faithful hound.
By:
The Management
When: 20 Jul 19 11:18
Gorgonzola?
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 20 Jul 19 12:16
Dr Crippen  19 Jul 19 12:54

|I remember The Management ruining a similar threat before with his tantrums after I'd disagreed with him.
I hope he isn't about to do the same here.



I did warn everyone he were likely to throw a tantrum and ruin the thread.
I think the last time it was on one of G Hall's too.
By:
The Management
When: 20 Jul 19 12:24
Saint Agur?
By:
peckerdunne
When: 20 Jul 19 14:27
Dr, still not answering a simple question and still only dishing it out to other folk.

Speaks volumes.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 20 Jul 19 15:08
I did answer your question peckerdunne.
It might not be the answer you expected, but it should have been acceptable to anyone with enough grey matter to work out why. 
Which speaks volumes about you.

That should bring The Management back. He usually waits for someone like you to come along so that he can join in.
By:
The Management
When: 20 Jul 19 15:11
He doesn't have any answers peckerdunne.

The most valuable forum post he has ever made was on a thread about cheese on the chit-chat forum.

I summed him up a few months ago imo:


The Management    21 Mar 19 15:50 
I have waited 20 years to own my very own little troll/stalker......and all i get is you? Cry
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 20 Jul 19 15:15
^And here he is, straight back just like I said - 3 minutes this time.

I've got The Management in my pocket.

I can pull him out any time I like.
By:
The Management
When: 20 Jul 19 15:18
Finca Pascualete Mini Torta?
By:
peckerdunne
When: 20 Jul 19 17:21
Dr, be fair you answered by saying you refuse to answer.

I have not worked out why.

Can you explain please.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 26 Jul 19 22:32
Good News

BRACE Yourself....I WANT SOME GREEN!
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 26 Jul 19 22:32

Jul 26, 2019 -- 10:32PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Good NewsBRACE Yourself....I WANT SOME GREEN!


Wrong thread Blush

By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 26 Jul 19 22:34
Now that I'm in General Betting I may as well bring Schalke's thread back up!
By:
VardonVoo.
When: 27 Jul 19 17:46
Cardinal Sin strikes again!
Page 6 of 10  •  Previous | 1 | ... | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ... | 10 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com