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Betting for a living

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Replies: 379
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Apr 20 14:27
BT - you believe "Some persevere, hoping to find the magic solution, but most never will, for one simple reason; the markets are just too efficient. Sure, we can all find examples of markets getting things wrong, but any mistakes tend to be relatively minor, short-lasting, not wrong enough, often enough, to be worth talking about."

"minor" .....I've been bored the last few days so decided to take on Australian races ( horses)…mostly "CLAIMER"type races. Only with small bets, but in races where I believed the favorite /s were poor value , I just selected a number of horses that had "factors in their favour" ( using some factors that I believe are relevant in British races) for the going and time of year when races are being run. It is a "scatter gun " approach used.....but based on criteria and value compared to the favs. I would not call the odds of winners , betting this way, being "minor" mistakes in market.......just what happens relatively frequently ....but based on FACTORS relevant to horse racing.

The USA racing is MORE DIFFICULT due to the time of year.

The "Specials" market ..eg Big Brother....is over a longer period of time.....so you achieved 5-1SP over 1 week ( one bet....) Australian racing gives you more opportunities to bet over the course of 1 week.....etc and  the markets are "efficient"....for BOOKMAKERS.....but still there is always VALUE , if you can spot it, based on knowledge of racing.

Enjoy your "specials" though...GL with them.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 17 Apr 20 20:33
DFC; I said `most never will`, as 95%-odd of us fail at the horses, leaving just 5%-odd who have cracked it; if you`re one of those, well done. But you applying your skills to Australian racing doesn`t really help the OP if you`re in the 5%, as he`s clearly still in the 95%. You might be able to spot `value`, and `factors`, but most can`t, never will.

In horse betting, a 2.00 to 1.25, a 5.0 to 2.0, a 33/1 to 8/1 are considered pretty big plunges, but in Specials such movements are the norm, often shooting back out to beyond the initial price five minutes later! We`ve all seen betting shows, we`re all aware of the typical range of movement on those prices, (up a point or two, down a point or two),  but very few of you are aware of the volatility we see in Specials markets; fair enough, you don`t believe things are as extreme as I`m saying, just check it out for yourselves, with massive priced winners, and long odds-on `certainties` being frequently overturned, often two or three in the one series! To compare the volatility, and therefore the ease of winning, with horse betting is to compare different worlds. 95% of horse punters fail yet, of the 20-odd regular Specials posters that I mentioned above, 0% are losers.

One bet in BB? A major aspect of winning at Specials that I haven`t mentioned, is that they tend to go on for weeks, even months, meaning all the time in the world to correct any mistakes. As Steve Starkey says in that interview, `it`s hard getting out of trouble, when things have gone against you in a 5-furlong sprint`, not the case in Specials, especially given the volatility of the markets. I, nor anyone else I know, will have just the one bet and hope for the best, as that would be to entirely miss the reason why winning at Specials is so easy, (back to that word!), `volatility` again. In an `I`m a Celebrity`, on for about three weeks, I`ll typically have maybe 800-1000 plays, on a month long CBB, maybe more than 1500. A blind monkey would get 50% of them right; just getting 51% right is all you need to do to become a long term winner.

Bottom line? Fair play to the few who can win at horses; for the rest of us, there`s always Specials!
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 Apr 20 20:44
Haven't read through every post but I get the general gist of it. I have found that simply concentrating on one or two "sports/event type" is best. There is no magic formula but if your knowledge is deep on your main niche market, you are on the right lines. Basically you need to try and find a category that bookies and exchanges bet on, the more the merrier. Then rule out the usuals, horses, dogs, football. Now look for something that has events throughout the western hemisphere. Next track down every bookie/exchange that bets on them, particularly ones not listed on price comparison sites. Next get a calendar of future events in your specialist market, start studying and price the events up before any firm does. Bookmakers have specialists in all firms that have vast (often inside) knowledge of the main horse/football stuff. They have next to no specialist employees for the events you are interested in. Mistakes are common, howlers less so, but can be extremely profitable when they occur.
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Apr 20 11:53
Timbuctooth wrote....

To compare the volatility, and therefore the ease of winning, with horse betting is to compare different worlds. 95% of horse punters fail yet, of the 20-odd regular Specials posters that I mentioned above, 0% are losers.

Hmm..
By:
timbuctooth
When: 19 Apr 20 15:53
Read as many threads on the `Specials` forum as you need to, before you realise I`m right.
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Apr 20 16:50

Apr 19, 2020 -- 3:53PM, timbuctooth wrote:


Read as many threads on the `Specials` forum as you need to, before you realise I`m right.


Well, you would have thought that the "20-odd regular Specials posters" would know far better than you ever will whether they have been winning or losing. If every single person won, there would be no bookmakers betting on the events.

By:
timbuctooth
When: 19 Apr 20 17:57
Don`t be twisting things, nobody said `every single person won`; I`ve already told you exactly how to verify my assertion for yourself, should you choose to.
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Apr 20 18:06
of the 20-odd regular Specials posters that I mentioned above, 0% are losers.


0% are losers. That means 100% winners, does it not? I.e every single one of these 20-odd win.

If you are naive enough to believe that is the case on an anonymous betting forum, you are beyond help.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 19 Apr 20 18:36
0% of the 20-odd regular posters are losers

Why are you twisting it again, by leaving out the highlighted bit? Are you allowing our differing political views to overflow onto a thread which is all about helping people to win? I`ve posted an easy route and, rather than do the reading required to confirm this, you prefer to remain in willful ignorance, yet decry from the sidelines? Until you`ve read the evidence provided, less of the entirely uninformed twaddle from you would be appreciated. Particularly, I`d imagine, by those who are reading this thread in the hope of becoming winners, to whom I say `I`ve told you where you can see all the proof you want, check it out for yourselves`.
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Apr 20 18:46
I am not twisting anything, I am quoting your very words on this thread.

To compare the volatility, and therefore the ease of winning, with horse betting is to compare different worlds. 95% of horse punters fail yet, of the 20-odd regular Specials posters that I mentioned above, 0% are losers.

This is from your post April 17, 2020 8:33 PM BST.

If you genuinely believe that all 20-odd of these regular Specials posters are winners, then I have a bridge to sell you.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 19 Apr 20 19:45
Specials betting is very much a niche market, with most readers of this probably never having had one bet on it, with fewer still having ever read the Specials forum, and I`m not sure if anyone who`s posted on this thread has ever posted on Specials, pretty much leaving it to my 20-odd regular posters. I`m on there 15-odd years, many of `the 20` were already on there, and I learnt most of what I knew from them. Over the years, other newbies have become regulars, and they form the rest of the 20. In the way that a good and helpful a forum should be, we are posting our reasoning for backing or laying `x`, discussing/debating all the while, our positions are known to each other throughout the series, including final books, before the result is announced.

So, not only do I have 15+ years of proof, I`ve told you where you can see it all for yourself! In fact, I`ve pointed to this evidence repeatedly, you`re boring the forum, so this will be my last attempt at being helpful to you on this matter, I`ll leave it to you to have the last `know nothing, know it all` word.
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Apr 20 20:11
All 20-odd of you can't win regularly. There are obvious basic reasons why this is, the main one being that the markets you are betting on are so "specialised" that there is not enough liquidity. Now let's all say you were all agreed that the likely "winner" of the current Britains got talent was the act "sign along with us". All the twenty odd of you plump for this so you all place money on here. Currently the price is 6.6 and there is £4 available to back at that price. Can you see why you can't all win? Some of you might win if you bet that act and that act wins (for relatively small amounts). That is assuming that every single one of you back the same act. Now of course there are bookmakers that also bet on the event but no bookmaker is going to take a stash of bets on the same act and retain the price for very long. Even if the bookmaker does and the act wins then the bookie is unlikely to entertain bets on these type of markets for very long from the same regular "winning" customers.
What is much more likely is that some of you back the winning act. Most of you back losing acts.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 19 Apr 20 20:24
Please can you take your conversation off to a different forum? :)
By:
timbuctooth
When: 19 Apr 20 21:53
Not continuing the discussion but, just in case anyone`s interested in the easiest times to be had on betfair, here`s two of those interviews StarSports did, with two of `the 20`; both long term `Specials` winners. Watch, and decide, for yourselves

https://www.starsportsbet.co.uk/interview-steve-starkey/

https://www.starsportsbet.co.uk/bettingpeople-daniel-hughes/
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Apr 20 08:26
Specials - Will the English PL resume by 1st of June ?
===========================================================================================================

Only a YES or NO answer required and odds not very attractive. If you had insider information ( not very "legal") , then even then not attractive odds!

"EASY" is the term you used TBT.....and this a word that TRUMP would use and immediately very few would believe such a comment ….other than "red necks"Sad

Just a boring market that probably appeals to those that watch BB.....but as little skill involved in such YES or NO answer type questions...….it is no wonder that such markets are not interesting enough …..compared to horse racing "puzzles'".

GL though .....as long as you enjoy such markets.....but not enough of a challenge compared to the complexities of a horse race.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 20 Apr 20 13:36
DFC, in an earlier post, I said `... I had my first dabble at Specials (X Factor, I`m A Celebrity, Eurovision etc) betting...` The fact that some bookie somewhere has the bet you`re talking about as a `Special`, does not mean it`s a Special in the sense we`re talking about; as you can see from the examples I named, the crucial thing about Specials is that the public voting chooses the winner, that`s you, me everybody, WE choose the winner, from multiple runners, over months. Yours might be a special, one-off proposition, but it`s most certainly NOT `Specials.
I really don`t understand the hostility towards this? Not believing me, fair enough, but I`ve provided two links of interviews to two of my `20` who are also doing what I am, what don`t people believe? Why the reluctance?
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Apr 20 15:09
Nothing to do with "belief"...……….just not enough of a challenge in such markets …..and using the word "easy" probably was just stirring a hornets nest.....or just "fishing"Tongue Out
By:
timbuctooth
When: 20 Apr 20 17:14
Did you read my last post? Whatever section a bookie places your example in, it`s not what we`re talking about, it`s not `Specials`. A typical Specials market will have maybe 15(?) to 50+ runners; if you don`t find that `challenging enough`, then you certainly don`t need my help!
Most on here will have spent 10, 20, 30 years trying to crack the more mainstream markets, always thinking they`ve surely learnt enough by now, that success is within sight, but they never get there; in Specials, after doing, say, one year`s apprenticeship, most people will be able top win consistently and long term.

Strange, isn`t it; you see many threads asking `how can I win`, with numerous replies saying `anyone who wins, won`t be on here telling you how`. Then, when someone with helpful intentions does post how, it`s met with abuse and scorn? Funny old world...
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Apr 20 17:39
The Voice UK 2020
Australian Weather
Big Brother Brazil 2020
Australian Residential Property Price Indexes
UK Weather 2020
Britain's Got Talent 2020
BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2020.

=====================================================

What a mish mash of "specials"...………...and yes there will be a number of choices.....If you watch such TV programs, then might be of "interest" to you. However, if not interested in such markets.....then it to say it is "easy" to win on you probably would need to watch such programs....and watching such programs would be an attractive proposition for me anyway!

I  suspect you might be a lay bet person or a trader ( you mentioned movements in odds etc)………..however as a backer of horses that can be at good value ( as usually more than one in a race backed) and I don't go by "market movements" , as they are irrelevant to selection process. Australian racing  I find to be relatively "simple " race types ( mainly CLAIMERS), so the amount of "knowledge" required is far less than with British races that are "HANDICAP" race types, then I suppose they are "easier" to bet on for me anyway ……………...SO FAR!Tongue Out

GL with bets.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 20 Apr 20 18:24
You`re right, that list is a bit of a mish-mash! It`s not just sports that aren`t running, it`s also traditional Specials events, with only three of that list being part of the Specials world (The Voice UK 2020, Britain's Got Talent 2020 and BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2020). The rest aren`t even usually listed, but events are so few and far between at the moment, bf have just thrown them in there. Remember, we`re talking about events the (Eurovision excepted) British/Irish public vote on to determine the winner

Whatever, you seem to have found your niche, well done and good luck to you too!
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