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Pre off football trading !

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Replies: 351
By:
Psmith91
When: 18 Mar 18 19:12
I lost on Wigan game DFC £300 that 2nd goal for saints really hurt Cry need Leicester vs Chelsea scores for £500 though looks like vardy has saved my crappy pre off work on Wigan match and the Derby vs Cardiff postponement Happy
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Mar 18 19:18
Sad...........WIGAN used up too much energy 1st half......and SOUTH had paced game better.......Odds on 0-2 were up to 11s to 19s late in game before 0-2....I think.

Come on someone score !!!!!!!
By:
Psmith91
When: 18 Mar 18 19:19
You make a good point DFC about backing a score late on in a game for better odds that’s often what I do to  guarantee myself a win so a bit of hedging when the odds get better in final 15 mins or sometimes to reduce a big red I might have on a score normally it’s a good idea to try and reduce the exposure to some extent! Watford’s 4th at home to Chelsea at the start of last month and Tottenham’s 4th away at Bournemouth really rocked me and in those cases I wasn’t able to reduce exposure as much as I wanted!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Mar 18 19:22
Could OVERS market not give you a way to hedge bet a bit when 4th goal is a "worry"????
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Mar 18 19:25
LEICESTER may qualify for semi place  after ET and if penalties....though it is a bit of lottery now....Tired legs ...errors likely!
By:
Psmith91
When: 18 Mar 18 19:34
Yeah suppose it could DFC I just tend to use the correct score market though!  Looking at the later kickoff in Spain this is one of my favourite types of setup for correct score! Unqouted is that low for Real Madrid vs Girona for me it leaves 3-0 and 3-1 as value backs at 10.5 and 12 respectively! Not a fan of backing unqouted at those odds 2.28 but for me it skews the market when unqouted is that low and makes other scores value!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Mar 18 19:39
GIRONA play some good football....and RM may only have sights on CL.....so be wary with bets in this one ....


MGOFS is 2-2....
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Mar 18 19:40
Trust CHELSEA to score !!!!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Mar 18 19:46
OVERS market can give very high odds  when possibility of a 5th/6th goal etc....especially when say 1-2 and you say have 1-3 covered already....then laying UNDER 4.5 can be good cover....Saved me a couple times...
By:
Psmith91
When: 18 Mar 18 20:00
Real Madrid vs girona 2-2 is 34 DFC might add that to the cs book at those odds ! You could be right girona have made a good account of themselves this season and Real Madrid no stranger to a 2-2 draw this season!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Mar 18 20:03
RM have little to play for as BARCA well ahead....and they currently are well ahead of 5th in league....so could give GIRONA a chance to get at least a DRAW.....they might even win???? A DRAW probably more likely...

GL with bets.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Mar 18 22:04
3-1 so far...wd PS....

Hopefully ok nowwwwwwww

G N the nooooooooo
By:
Psmith91
When: 18 Mar 18 22:39
Lost £15 Real Madrid unqouted was worth a try but ended up very high scoring! I’m trading Doncaster vs Bradford tomorrow league 1 clash then that’s it until Saturday a nice extended break which I’m looking forward to I’ve been flat out since Christmas pretty much! Will spend some time practicing my cooking skills, reading my new book and will have a go on tinder again after a few previous failed dates Laugh going Manchester on Friday with workmates drinking so will miss trading the England game! Get in Happy
By:
wolf3011
When: 19 Mar 18 23:03

Mar 15, 2018 -- 12:56AM, prepared83 wrote:


But if you look a little deeper seville had battered united in the first leg and villa had just put massive energy into beating wolves a few days before hence the flat performance. Thats my opinion anyway


What was the explanation behind them losing to Bolton then with a weeks rest? Its flip of a coin lets face it

By:
wolf3011
When: 19 Mar 18 23:12

Mar 15, 2018 -- 11:30AM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


A 1-1 DRAW would have been sufficient for SEVILLA to go through.......and NOBODY will ever get EVERY games definite outcome.However, if you take as much circumstances surrounding each of the 2 teams......you can make an opinion on how a game might develop.OK.....NOBODY will be "right" on every aspect of how a game develops....but there are usually some aspects in your before game opinion that can enable a profit to be made....or a loss mitigated.I agree that you can't always rely on players doing what you expect them to do, or coaches, or referees, or assistant referees etc etc............however, SEVILLA were not mugs, in spite of how certain commentators blethered, and still blether a load on rubbish about them after the 1st leg.Some of the comments McMAN made.....or former player who played for DORTMUND and ENGLAND....going hyperbolic about POGBA or other players......saying "what a wonderful shot" ...."wonderful" this ...and "wonderful" that......when shot flys over the bar or past the post and does not score etc etc........You MUST make YOUR OPINION on the game.....you should not rely on commentators or anyone else on arriving at an opinion on a game. SEVILLA were a serious threat....as MU failed to score at least 1 AWAY goal in 1st leg. Anyone who thought at HT in 2nd leg that MU were going to sail through ....knows little about the game ( MCMAN etc etc )There are some former players who make good comments about players/games etc etc.....HOWEVER, THERE ARE MANY WHO HAVE LOW STANDARDS WHEN THEY PLAYED FOOTBALL....WHO JUST DO NOT SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN MATCHES, OR ARE NOT CRITICAL ENOUGH OF PLAYERS LIKE POGBA WHO, FOR THE MONEY HAS SO MANY WEAKNESSES IN HIS GAME THAT SAYING HE IS A "WONDERFUL" PLAYER ARE JUST BLETHERING!One of the reasons the STANDARD at international level is so poor in UK is down to the former players giving credit to players who fall far below the STANDARD required to be a "wonderful" player.To say the game is a GAME OF CHANCE is not accurate. It is NOT like flipping a coin. You have to weigh up as many relevant circumstances before forming YOUR OWN OPINION.Nobody gets their opinion "right" on EVERY match........but PS is pretty good on his opinions on matches generally. We both differed on ARSENAL and MILAN. ROMA were a poor team on the night v MILAN........ARSENAL were a poor team prior to playing MILAM. However, BOTH ROMA and ARSENAL won their CL games to qualify for next stage.You have to read between the lines on what the objectives of coaches and players might be......PS perhaps was not fully concentrating on ROMA v MILAN, and formed an opinion on that game which was that MILAN could beat ARSENAL in 1st leg. ROMA's poor performance against MILAN influencing that opinion. Nobody is saying it is EASY to get an opinion "right", but as long as generally your opinion is "right" on how a game might go ...........then analysing a game and forming an opinion...IS FAR BETTER THAN FLIPPING A COIN!


You can mitigate losses all you like , this is the template bookies use to predict football results https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_association_football_predictions  near the bottom far more accurately than anyone on here can including me. To suggest you can beat the odds by lol ignoring commentators "forming your own views" typing in caps lock is utterly ridiculous. The truth is you are down in money terms not just on this thread but your account in total with your predictions no better than flipping a coin... ur kidding yourself fella but you keeping trying to beat the odds laying long odds typing **** ready for the run of inevitable losses to wipe you out. As though you can predict a correct score in a game of 22 men kicking a ball around a patch of grass with all the variables there are.. utterly laughable

By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 14:47
wolf3011 -It is CS LAYING that I concentrate on......The opinion on games help me decide what CS to lay.

If you go over thread, then my views on certain teams scoring, not scoring or playing well has been reasonable.

ARSENAL.....not beating MC was ok....means laying ARSENAL 1-0
ARSENAL.....scoring 1 or 2 goals ....means 1-0 MILAN reasonable lay
SEVILLA not being push overs when away to MU.....means they were likely to score....

Can't be bothered going over every game on here.....but I do know that my OPINION on:-

what team scores or does not play well or on style of play
both teams likely to lead to a 1-1 lay being "best" lay etc etc etc...

has been "correct" on all the games on here.

It is your view that FOOTBALL has so many VARIABLES that flipping a coin is best way to find a bet on a game......however, there are only 3 outcomes on a match, SO HOW CAN A COIN BE OF ANY ASSISTANCE TO MAKING A DECISION ON  A BET IN MATCH MARKET . OK it could be used betting in OVERS market or whether to lay 0-0 in HT CS market or 0-0 in CS market.............BUT AS IT IS THE CS MARKET THAT PS AND MYSELF CONCENTRATE ON.............YOU CANNOT MAKE A SPECIFIC DECISION ON WHICH
CS SCORE TO LAY OR BACK USING A COIN ( EXCLUDING 0-0 IN CS MARKET), AS YOU ARE NOT CONSIDERING ALL THE CSs.

You stick to flipping a coin.....I'll stick to opinion.

You are relying on PURE LUCK.....which could give you a run of, but only on restrictions to markets available on FOOTBALL.

OPINION is far better way to bet......IMO.DevilGrin


GL with bets.
By:
wolf3011
When: 20 Mar 18 21:01
The correct scores you are laying are around odds of 10 ( maybe more) so wouldnt expect any to land at this stage. The coin toss was metaphorical but if you feel you have " an edge " good luck with it. You are attempting to over analyse what is effectively a game of random chance thinking you have an edge on the market when you're kidding yourself. Some of your score lays for eg have only been avoided by one goal, so a dodgy pen given is all that stands between a glorious thread of success and being down overall at the odds you are laying. Red card , pen, wind assisted goal, free kick etc etc etc means your lay comes in and you lose 10 betting units requiring ten matches to claw back what happens randomly in every league in the world. You can't possibly make money medium to long term with that kind of approach.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 21:04
8-1 SP is most of lays on here suggested in CS market.
By:
wolf3011
When: 20 Mar 18 21:06
so two matches that finish on the score you lay and you need 16 to break even again with no commission
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 21:07
Suspect FLEETWOOD will score in tonight game....so LAY on 1-0 is "best" lay IMO.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 21:09
Laid at 5.4 BF ....to gain £20
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 21:11
What does your COIN say as to a bet on ROCHDALE match?
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 21:13
Come on........does not take long to toss a coin!
By:
wolf3011
When: 20 Mar 18 21:14

Mar 20, 2018 -- 9:11PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


What does your COIN say as to a bet on ROCHDALE match?


Not daft enough to bet on it, but I can guarantee your betting strategy is insane. If you keep putting the odds up with what you are betting it will be obvious to anyone else reading as well.

By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 21:15
You are daft enough to suggest batting on FLIP OF A COIN though!
By:
wolf3011
When: 20 Mar 18 21:17

Mar 20, 2018 -- 9:15PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


You are daft enough to suggest batting on FLIP OF A COIN though!


I'm saying flipping a coin or guessing will produce results no worse than your bets

By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 21:19
Toss it then........DevilGrin
By:
wolf3011
When: 20 Mar 18 21:26
I don't believe its possible to "bet" on football like this and win long term. If it's a hobby fair enough, but you are trying to find patterns in teams that don't exist.. like seeing a face of Jesus in a cloud etc. The reason so many people lose on football is they don't grasp how random it is.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 21:32
Horseracing has more FACTORS to consider than FOOTBALL......and my "guessing" has been reasonable over last 86 months......not at sp , but BF SP and higher.


FOOTBALL has fewer FACTORS to consider..............and possibly tossing a coin can "work" with FOOTBALL....but not with HORSE RACING!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 21:34
Too late now for you to toss that coin on ROCHDALE game .....as time taken to do so has expired
By:
wolf3011
When: 20 Mar 18 21:38
Well good luck with your bets , just post the odds ( amount is irrelevant ) and lets put it to the test. You thinking that you can predict how many times a ball will enter a net over 90 minutes with specific scores is doomed to failure as there are too many variables.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 21:41
NO  .......it is irrelevant as I am not doing an OVERS bet.....just believe away team will score in the ROCHDALE match......and that probably 2 goals in game.

GL with coin tossing!
By:
wolf3011
When: 20 Mar 18 21:45
HT  0-0
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 21:45
As odds in CS market reduce as game progresses, I might LAY 0-0 at low odds and back to eliminate the LAY potential loss on 1-0 lay.....

This game could finish 0-0........Hopefully it stays 0-0 for at least 30 mins 2nd half....or FLEETWOOD score before then......
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 21:46
You could have tossed the coin on HT 0-0 market.......
By:
wolf3011
When: 20 Mar 18 21:49

Mar 20, 2018 -- 9:45PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


As odds in CS market reduce as game progresses, I might LAY 0-0 at low odds and back to eliminate the LAY potential loss on 1-0 lay.....This game could finish 0-0........Hopefully it stays 0-0 for at least 30 mins 2nd half....or FLEETWOOD score before then......


yeah yeah always a get out clause for a losing bet , you green up lol and save face

By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 21:54
Not watching the game so hard to form an opinion as best action to take 2nd half.......but when laying 1-0.....it is just a FACT that if stays 0-0 or goes to 0-1 or 2-0.......the lay bet wins..
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Mar 18 21:55
BTW...tis you who is demonstrating "saving face"....by not TOSSING the coin....
By:
wolf3011
When: 20 Mar 18 21:56

Mar 20, 2018 -- 9:54PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


Not watching the game so hard to form an opinion as best action to take 2nd half.......but when laying 1-0.....it is just a FACT that if stays 0-0 or goes to 0-1 or 2-0.......the lay bet wins..


You don't say , but as you laid 1-0 at over 5 and its now under 4 how do you intend to back to trade out ?

By:
wolf3011
When: 20 Mar 18 21:56
You're clutching at more straws than a horny scarecrow fella
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