General Betting
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I’m back on the betfair forum after a 3 year exile! Some of you will remember me from a few years back as Smithy91 I used to have a thread in general betting related to football trading! I’ve spent the past few years working away in match odds and correct market pre off trading and building a system suitable for myself! I’m back now and hoping to get a few fellow traders on here sharing ideas and hopefully win some money on football
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After watching Sevilla vs man united midweek in the champions league the draw at 3.45 for Sevilla vs atletico looks a good back! Sevilla looked very lacklustre infront of goal midweek and was a 0-0 draw! Atletico are renound for parking the bus away from home and with unders 1.75 the market isn’t expecting a classic! 0-0 and 1-1 the correct scores for me in this one!
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Welcome back smithy , i remember that thread , i looked on that pre trade forum .. it was pretty dead imo .. is that why your back on here ?
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im laying sevilla at 3.4
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Cheers pal! Yeah I’m still a member on prematchtrading.com but the chatroom is dead unfortunately! It was really good two years ago but with the markets getting more competitive a lot of traders on their have seemingly fallen by the wayside!
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Good call on Sevilla lay WK they are getting a pasting! Makes me wonder now watching Sevilla defend like schoolboys why Man united didn’t push for the away goal more in midweek ! I think mourinho is to stuck in his ways at times Thesedays and even when he does employ bus parking tactics they don’t always work ! Sevilla had 20+ shots on goal midweek and de gea saved them a few times! They should win the return leg man united but if they don’t it will come down to the first leg negativity
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It looks now like we have a permanent top 5 in English football fighting it out for the 4 champions league places and I can’t see that changing in the foreseeable future unless arsenal sack arsenal wenger or go on a massive spending spree which eclipses city and united but I can’t see that happening! Arsenal look like Europa league cannon fodder nowadays, I personally think the game has evolved past arsene wenger now and his tactics and player recruitment should be questioned massively! I think it gets worse for arsenal fans from here their away form is truly awful defeats away at Swansea and Bournemouth and draws away at West Brom, West Ham and Southampton in the league is not good enough! I think their Europa league campaign comes crashing down in milan in two weeks time, as stated their away form is a major issue but at the other end of the pitch aubemyang is ineligible, lacazette injured so we have the prospect of Danny welbeck playing the lone striker role! Welbeck for me will be playing at Brighton or West Brom next season he’s not top 6 level in prem! AC Milan are a team on the up and produced a defensive masterclass last night away in Rome to record a 0-2! New manager gattuso seems to have the troops rallied and no doubt they’ll relish the chance to turn arsenal over! After the swedes osterlands won 2-1 at the emirates last week they’ll probably even fancy their chances to win the away leg aswell milan, they look well set up to counter attack! 7/5 on milan to win the first leg looks a decent price to me !
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Hi PS....Good to see a football thread with some "analysis".
MILAN played well against ROMA, although ROMA look a jaded team with certain players NOT giving 100 % last night. MILAN certainly look better organised , but suspect ARSENAl will be more up for the MILAN game than they were for the league cup....where the prize is not a Champions League place for winning that cup. Wenger knows that winning Europa cup may well be the only way his team can get into CL next season. Perhaps some of his players think the same, as many of them never gave 100 % in the game last night IMO.! ARSENAL away form is very poor indeed, so can well see why MILAN winning 1st leg looks an appealing bet. However, ARSENAL in FA cup finals have a superb record........so perhaps they will fight their hardest against MILAN in 1st leg to try to get at least 1 away goal as such a goal or goals will be crucial if they want to have a chance to progress to quarter final. Looking at some of teams left in this comp.......cannot see A winning this cup. However, they may well get past MILAN . Perhaps over 2.5 goals, with cover on 1-1 worth a try in 1st leg........and the bet on MILAN winning 1st leg might be what I'll go for on the night. Certainly can't see MILAN losing at home and against MUSTAFI !!!! GL with bets. |
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Hi DFC cheers for the write up
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I agree with you I don’t think arsenal are capable of winning EL and navigating through difficult two leg ties! Man united won the EL last season but was some good tactical nous from mourinho and arguably they got a decent draw with celta and then Ajax in the final! You could tell in the final a lot of tactical work was put in on the training ground every player knew their roles! That sort of thing is above wenger though he’ll just tell the players to go out as they normally do
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Serie A tonight cagliari vs Napoli the market seems adamant it’s another Napoli win to nil! They have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 6 away games but i’m Going to oppose the market on this one and back 1-2 Napoli at 11 and 1-3 at 14! The law of averages suggest Napoli are due to concede! The other match live on sky is la liga Levante vs betis ! I’ve watched both sides recently and I do expect BTTS to land and with unders at 2.2 the market seems to agree! Normally for a setup like this where I fancy BTTS my four scoreline plan is 1-1 2-1 1-2 2-2! Difficult to call a winner but should be goals! In particular the 2-2 at 15 makes appeal for a back! Liquidity poor on both markets so I use reduced stakes to trade compared with english premier league or champions league!
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got to fancy Napoli .. im also watching the Dortmund game on BT and backing 2-0.. 2-1`... BOTH GAMES....
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2-0 up at HT Napoli WK in cruise control so far! I need a goal from Cagliari now in second half!
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Been on a poor run since Friday , but two days left in February to end the month on a high! Swansea vs sheff wed fa cup replay tonight sheff wed have a crippling injury list and don’t score many away goals so opting for 0-0 1-0 2-0 Swansea scores! Liquidity will be poor again but hopefully some arrives in the final hour before kickoff with it being televised! Wouldn’t be a big suprise to see a 0-0 stalemate at halftime but I think Swansea have the edge in quality and a better subs bench so fancy them for a narrow win to nil ! Espanyol vs Real Madrid game also makes appeal tonight because of real’s inability to keep clean sheets all season the 1-2 1-3 Real makes appeal and the 2-2! Real have drew 2-2 away at celta and levante this season so want that onside!
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Not sure if it's still available or not after my bets have been logged under me but....
Billes made a bit of a balls up on the Delhi Dynamos vs Mumbai City game in the Indian Super League this afternoon. They had Mumbai at 2's on the coupon but have since cut to Evens. However they hadn't amended the Both Teams to Score & Win coupon so I managed to get 5/1 on Mumbai for that (it's 5/2 on their online price). I'm PTL so couldn't get much on but enough to have a watch. Mumbai currently 2.16 and both teams to score is 1.76 to lay. |
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Cheers wildcat for the tip! I get a nose bleed though when I bet outside the main leagues in Europe
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Arsenal vs city match /correct score preview! I’m not even going to attempt to get involved and try and guess which way match odds will move for this one you can make a case for the odds going either way! It’s not often we see city as short as 1.84 to win at the emirates but on the other hand they completely outclassed arsenal at Wembley on Sunday and that is fresh in punters minds! I wouldn’t be to surprised to see city smashed into 1.75 but at the same time wouldn’t be to suprised to see them hit 1.9! I am keen however to get involved with the correct score market as the stats and trends clearly point to goals and it looks like unders will open up in the 2.8 area ! This game stinks of goals to me and i’d be suprised if it went under 2.5! I do expect arsenal to get on the scoresheet in this game they have home advantage and do tend to score at home to the big teams! They have scored at home to Chelsea, United, Tottenham and Liverpool in the league this season! City were quite fortunate to keep a clean sheet at Wembley on Sunday arsenal missed a good opportunity to go 1-0 up and then at the end a superb sliding block from otamendi stopped aubemyang getting an easy tap in! As for city I expect them to score 2 or more goals again! Aslong as silva and de bruyne start they will carve this arsenal defence open again! Arsenal have one clean sheet in nine games for a so called big team they are pathetic defensively! Judging by how many times City have gone over 3.5 this season and the likelihood of arsenal scoring 1-3 Man City at 14 is a back all day long! It went off at 12.5 on Sunday and for me it won’t go off higher than 14 ! The 1-2 Man City is another must to have onside that should comfortably trade below 10 until kickoff! 2-2 and 2-3 city complete my scoreline plan for this game! Unqouted City is an obvious possibility but I don’t like trading unqouted it’s always tricky so hoping City fall short of scoring 4!
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The way I view ARSENAL v MC game is :-
1. A now appear to have little chance of a top 4 place for CL qualification. Wenger has really to focus on CL through Europa comp.. MILAN is a vital game where they must get at least 1 away goal and not lose in 1st leg. So the tactics in A v MC might be a lot tighter in A approach to this game. I would want to avoid another defeat against MC, but a DRAW would be probably "acceptable" with MILAN game looming up. 2. MC have clear lead in PREM and face , on paper 2 games in a row against A and CHELSEA. They then have BASLE in 1st leg in CL.....a comp they will want to win. So a couple DRAWS v A and C would be OK for MC, saving energy for the BASLE game and avoiding injuries to key players. So MC may well just pace the game against A, keeping it tight in defence, and in last 20 mins try to score and win..... ============================================================ So there may not be as many goals as many will expect in the A v MC game. Can't see MC losing this game, but it may well be an under 3.5 game........finishing 0-2 or 1-2. 1-3 COULD happen , so that probably might be a good cover back bet if over 3.5 layed. Good luck with bets. |
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Nice insight DFC! Zidane made a lot of changes as real went down 1-0 to espanyol! I got caught by the drift pre off aswell 1.47 out to 1.73 someone must of cleaned up lol! The drift started when news broke of Ronaldo not playing then Casemiro was ruled out around lunchtime! Will post my Tottenham vs Rochdale preview up in the morning i’ll Be using exactly the same template I used for Tottenham vs Newport replay in the last round
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Welcome Back Smithy Always Liked Your Pre Trading Stuff Are You Still in The Aircraft Stuff And Hope you Are Getting a Few Qid out of Your Blackburn Rovers Good Luck
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Hi sevey , appreciate it pal cheers
i am still in the aircraft industry been at the same company for 10 years now and work is going well the lads on my section are sound and it’s pretty laid back so can get some trading done whilst i’m There to ! I’m enjoying blackburn rovers season this year although we’ve been in freefall for about 6 years now it’s good to be fighting it out at the right end of a league table for once albeit being in league one! I had £100 each way at 21/1 on Man City/Blackburn league outright double for prem and league one back in June when both clubs started to spend big money in pre season just hoping my team can pip Wigan to the title now! We play them on Sunday at noon which is a huge game ! |
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Spurs vs Rochdale match/correct score preview! I’m using Tottenham vs Newport replay as a template to trade tonight’s game! It’s a very similar setup and I expect a similar spurs side to play! I can’t be certain but would expect atleast two out of eriksen , kane and alli to be on the bench! Spurs are exactly the same price to beat Rochdale as they were to beat Newport at 1.1! I make Rochdale a lay at 44 though at this early stage that’s because the market has Rochdale roughly on par with Newport and I managed to back Newport at 55! I do think Rochdale will trade higher regardless of whether Kane and co play ! If the big guns play I can see Rochdale price exploding out to 60+! In terms of the correct score market this does all boil down to team news for me! If Kane plays it’s going unqouted if llorente starts i’m Throwing the kitchen sink at 2-0 3-0 spurs scores! Not only does the Spaniard miss a lot of chances , the cogs in the spurs engine don’t function very well when llorente and moussa sissoko play for me! This is part of the reason they have had to play two replays in the fa cup against lower league opposition! Take Kane , eriksen and alli out of the starting 11 Tottenham struggle against anyone to some extent! Going back even further West Ham knocked them out the league cup at Wembley and more recently eriksen was ruled out of Southampton away and they stumbled to a 1-1 draw against a team in the drop zone! Worth noting spurs beat Newport 2-0 at Wembley in the last round replay which was a 9.4 shot on the exchange! 2-0 and 3-0 are trading lower tonight but that’s with valid reasoning as llorente starting instead of kane for me holds the key to the fulltime score!
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Man City have been smashed in from 1.86 into 1.75 no way 1-3 Man City can hold up at 14 now it should be get hammered into 13 in the his setup
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Think llorente read this thread today
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Man City still at 14 for 1-3.......my cover back bet for lay on Over 3.5.
Last night MILAN played into ET in cup semi-final....and got through on penalties. So they have now beaten ROMA and LAZIO in their stadium in last 2 games. On the 4th they have a derby game against INTER.......so 3 tough games in a row may well take its toll on M v ARSENAL on 8th. I still believe tonight game, A v MC, may well be a TIGHT match with both teams getting ready for their important CL matches. Therefor, have layed Over 3.5 and backed - 1-3 ..........with small bets just for interest in match. My guess on final score is 0-2 or 1-1. GL with bets. |
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GL DFC with the adverse weather conditions that might work more into your under 3.5 plans! The market is trying to push 1-3 city out to 15 now so backing even more for a better avg price! This game looks like city win and BTTS for me but the market is being hard work at present ! Unders have dropped 2.9 into 2.74 so far!
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Arsenal need to fold tell the league they can’t field a team! It’s to embarrassing for them to continue surely! A pub team would fold and arsenal are a pub team this season!
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Will post my preview up tommorow for Burnley vs Everton live Saturday lunchtime game! Two team buses will be getting lined up in training to practice parking infront of the goalmouths!
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Landed a good win on 0-3 city but shame about the aubemyang penalty for the 1-3 which was bigger green! City sat back and conserved energy for the Chelsea game! Piss poor from arsenal wenger needs to go for the 700th time!
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Burnley vs Everton match /correct score preview! Two team buses will be parking up in the goalmouths tommorow lunchtime at turf moor and a stalemate looks highly likely! Sam allardyce was fuming at his sides inability to complete the bus park operation away at Watford last Saturday going down 1-0 to a late troy deeney goal! Instead of changing tactics for the Burnley game I think he’ll do exactly the same tactics again at turf moor this time with an extra week on the training ground to set the stall out again and work on positioning! Allardyce is a master of working out how to get to 40 points and with it being just around the corner for Everton being on 34 points he will be happy with a point at turf moor knowing he’ll likely win one or two home games to keep Everton up! I don’t think he trusts his Everton side to be more expansive away , he slated his strikers live on BT for his post game interview after the Watford game saying they can’t finish and also the defence has been poor all season so needs an extra holding midfielder and midfield shield! Everton’s away record reads W1 D5 L8 with their only sway win coming away at Newcastle in allardyce’s first away game in charge winning 0-1! If Everton do win at turf moor it will likely be another 0-1 success! As for Burnley they have again been pretty rock solid at home no team outside the big 6 has won at turf moor so Everton’s task looks pretty daunting! Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 6 out of 8 games hosting sides outside the top 6! It’s worth noting though Burnley are not in great form either doing their usual second half of the season slump when in the premier league! Their is some reasoning behind this , they already have the points of the board from pre Christmas but a bigger factor is injuries! They have one of the smallest squads in the premier league in terms of high quality players and 3 of their best players have been injured for a while now! Steven devour, Robbie Brady and Chris wood all 3 of their record signings! Goals and creativity have taken a big hit in Burnley’s side! 22 of their 28 matches this season in the prem have seen under 2.5 goals and all 8 games excluding the top 6 at home have gone under 2.5! It’s safe to say Burnley vs Everton looks an absolute banker for under 2.5 goals! Burnley are the more likely winners of the match as match odds indicate but it is the draw at 3.2 which stands out to me I am backing Everton to complete the bus park this week and get a point! The correct score plan for this game is 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1! If either side takes the lead at somepoint rather than going and chasing a 2nd goal it will be all hands to the pump to keep a clean sheet and see out a 1-0 win!
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Commentators got hyperbolic over MC "performance" IMO.
Arsenal had at least 2 chances in 1st half where they just were not clinical with finishing. Missed a penalty 2nd half through a centre with "crazy" run up , that probably disorientated him before he "telegraphed" where he was going to hit ball! The 2 full-backs in A team were a nightmare as "defenders". The "right back" dived into a tackle for ball on wrong side of attacker, allowing them to gain advantage when he was at a disadvantage had the defender just kept goal side of him. The German winger then skips pass him, plus some others.....and the "left back" drifts too far away from DeSilva allowing the pass to DS, then the defender allows DS to get ball onto left foot ( the most likely foot they would use to try to score with) to place ball into top left corner. ARSENAL obviously have a coach who does not "train" defenders on how to DEFEND ! I believed A would have played a TIGHT game 1st half.......but they showed no idea what a TIGHT game is. Sometimes a team needs to be ultra defensive, especially when they have a MILAN team to play in few days away....and they need to keep "confidence" levels high ! I hope a new coach is appointed ASAP as W does not appear to realise that DEFENDING is an art , as well as playing far quicker to attackers. The "square passing" and "back passing" way A play is just far too SLOW a way to play the game. It just allows their opponents TIME TO get defenders back into strong defensive positions. ARSENAL are extremely "guilty" of this way of playing. There are so many of A players who need to totally change the way they don't play into a far more DIRECT and aggressive way to play the game. NEEDS A COACH WHO IS AWARE OF SUCH WEAKNESSES IN HOW THEY PLAY...........THAT ARE SO OBVIOUS ......BUT WILL TAKE AT LEAST TIL OCTOBER 2018 TO TURN A INTO A TOP 4 CHALLENGING TEAM. MC were made to look a good team 1st half by a bad team. MILAN are a well organised team who are likely to play a TIGHT game and win 1-0 or 2-0 in A CL game. They will concentrate on not allowing A to get a vital away goal. A should be trying in a very POSITIVE way to get at least 1 away goal and not to lose 1st leg.......but their "confidence" looks so brittle that I find it hard to see how they can turn around their total lack of awareness of their weaknesses to avoid losing the game and not scoring! RANT over!!!!! Sorry PS.... GL with Burnley game ( looks a difficult game to get a strong view on. My gut feeling is it won't finish 1-1, as they probably negate each others moves for most of game to allow more than 1 goal in game.) |
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Very valid points their DFC about arsenal’s style of play sideways passing and allowing the opposition to get back without causing them to many problems! Add to that their defensively a shambles it’s an awful concoction ! Like Jamie Carragher said last night after the game , new manager in for next season and start again rebuilding!
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Burnley 1-0 with the goal in last 10 min
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That wouldn’t suprise me at all pumphol! I want a massive green on the draw and hopefully start laying off in final 15 minutes but also want 1-0 and 0-1 from the off from pre off trades! 1-0 Burnley at 7.8 looks a fair price to me it should be closer to 7 than 8!
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Best of luck
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Burnley vs Everton draw into 3.05 looks like it will go off at 3 which is the lowest a draw has gone off all season! Unders into 1.52 the market is fully aware of what looks like happening here!
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Laying 3-3 at 180-190 if this ends 3-3 i’ll give up trading
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For Liverpool vs Newcastle i’m Backing 2-0 3-0 3-1 Liverpool I think Liverpool win by atleast a 2 goal margin and hoping with champions league vs Porto midweek they do a City and take their foot off the gas and fall short of the unqouted line!
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Unders into 1.46 Burnley vs Everton think that could be the 2nd lowest unders price in the prem this season the 1st was Brighton vs Burnley 1.43
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Never had a bet prices much too low on what I wanted to play, the early goal will make for a better game now surprised to see how open it has been tbh.
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