General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 756 comments are related to the topic:
LIQUIDITY IN BIG DECLINE ON BETFAIR
LIQUIDITY IN BIG DECLINE ON BETFAIR
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 756
|
By:
Surely anybody intelligent enough to use the exchange is here already? Isn't that essentially what BF have said by launching the BFSB, which is probably far more akin to what your average betting shop punter is going to be looking for?
|
|
By:
(with apologies for the broad, sweeping generalisations)
|
|
By:
I don't think all the people intelligent enough to use the exchange are already here. Just talking to intelligent people who are casual punters for a couple of minutes shows how we here get caught up in the Betfair bubble.
The BFSB is certainly aimed at the mug punters but there were plenty of mug punters on here who have now disappeared. If they've disappeared, the chances are the new ones won't arrive either. |
|
By:
They already are arriving. You're just not seeing them directly!
|
|
By:
They're backing at high prices only!
I want to see a return of the fools who will back something at any price. We're not talking about match odds for Man Utd v Man City but more obscure markets which might be priced up at closer to 110% or aren't being Price Rushed. They're the markets which have been hit the most. I think this is where there's a disconnect between Betfair saying liquidity is fine and some saying it's not. It all depends where you look. I'm sure match odds in football, cricket, tennis are fine as there's plenty of trading going on, but those who are looking to have a bet in smaller markets are really seeing a lack of activity, exacerbated by the arrival of the sportsbook. |
|
By:
From what I could see from a cursory look earlier, lots of the side markets are not available on the BFSB yet and thus aren't being price rushed, which is why I've said I think it's interesting to see where this can go....
I would be very surprised if BF's long term game plan is to be nothing more than a bookmaker. |
|
By:
I'd agree with all of that. There might be a great long-term plan but all they've done for us exchange users the last few years is take as much money from us as possible, whether it's PC or diverting mug gamblers to their odds.
|
|
By:
Any mug punter at the wrong odds tends to be taken by the jumping bots these days. Very hard to make any profit from the less savvy price hunters unless you are taking the books on with incorrect pricing.
|
|
By:
I personally don't like the idea of having my bet on the exchange arbitraged by betfair in a "price rush". I find it grossly unfair, same like the cross matcher and they should have returned the difference to the exchange user.
|
|
By:
Very Gloomy Picture being painted by the Moaning Minnies on here about the state of exchange but then I see the Pak v NZ one dayer today has £42 million and counting matched! Surely thats a indicator that the exchange is not going to the dogs!
|
|
By:
The main markets are fine still but side markets are all but finished. I wouldn't bet on any Pakistan cricket matches with the amount of trouble they have been in with match fixing and spot fixing.
|
|
By:
Cardinal, I think most are saying match odds on major sports/events are fine, it's more a case of the side markets and smaller events/sports. That £50m on the cricket is mainly trading as pointed out earliet in this post:
marky sparky Re: Liquidity rising in main markets My take on this is that in order to generate the same level of profits, premium charge payers are turning over more in the main markets and neglecting the smaller, less liquid ones as they are no longer worthwhile. From the outside this looks like Betfair is growing but I strongly suspect that a smaller number of players are making up a larger % of matched turnover. At least from my own experience this would seem the case. For example, in a one day cricket match I can now make-up between 1-5% of the matched turnover on a market (much more than it used to be). So on the face of it, there only needs to be between 20-100 people in the same boat to cover the whole market. It's worrying as the pool of players needs to be getting bigger rather than a small group bashing each other with larger stakes. This is all due to the premium charge and is a result of the situation. Technically, I've been forced into a corner to turnover more and take less risk which is pretty much the opposite of what Betfair and myself want. So frustrating, and I really hope Betfair wake-up asap before it's too late. In my opinion, it's getting very very close to going over the edge and there would be no way back. |
|
By:
natural evolution would have killed the exchange eventually regardless of PC imo .
just that BF realise there is a lot of money to be made from running a SB if they can get it right |
|
By:
sorry ,that post was to an earlier reply
 |
|
By:
because the side markets have effectively closed down along with minority sports the focus is now on football main markets .
these markets have seen a strengthened gene pool of late - hence the shark effect |
|
By:
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
Cardinal Scott • December 8, 2014 5:55 PM GMT
Very Gloomy Picture being painted by the Moaning Minnies on here about the state of exchange but then I see the Pak v NZ one dayer today has £42 million and counting matched! Surely thats a indicator that the exchange is not going to the dogs! I don't know if it was in this thread or another, but a couple of weeks ago I posted that some markets that appeared to be in decline have had some form of resurgence over the last couple of weeks. I'm not naive enough to think that everything is rosy, but certainly some of the death knells are a little premature. |
|
By:
if Price rush is feeding from the exchange how come i have fewer bets matched on the football markets .
just doesn't sound right . -either the SB is floundering /dying on it's arse ! -backers on SB are only betting the shorter prices/favourites -or not all price rush bets are being matched ,only a few |
|
By:
What markets, Coachbuster? Are they markets that BFSB is offering? A punter will still only get price rushed if the price you're offering is better than the BFSB price after commission.
I found the email where some of the numbers were quoted: Data collected from Monday 22nd September to Sunday 29th September 2014: Sport - Market - % eligible bets rushed Football - Correct score - 81 Football - Over/Under 4.5 goals - 67.8 Golf - Winner - 58.1 Football - Half Time/Full Time - 49.2 Tennis - Match Offs - 47.2 Horse Racing - Win - 43.7 It is also clear from the email that they're far from having rolled it out across the board to date: "Price Rush is now active in more Leagues and markets than ever with Serie A, Scottish Premier League and the Euro 2016 qualifiers just a handful of competitions which were added in recent weeks. "There was a “Price Rush First” in the recent Ryder Cup as we offered Price Rush IN-PLAY as well as pre-play. The markets to benefit were as follows; • Winner • All 8 fourballs markets • All 8 foursomes markets • All 12 singles markets" As I say, it's the most optimistic I've felt about things on here in a long time. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
correct score
81% looks about right on paper (if that's how i'm reading it ) looking at the volume matched compared with say ,last year . doesn't explain my own findings though weirdly ! and all my offerings were better value Latalomne |
|
By:
Every time you bet on the cross matched bet and not the original bet, you are more often than not being skimmed by Betfair.
The price rush is even worse as they can skim as much or as little as they want. Betfair are sell outs, that's all I have to say. |
|
By:
i say weirdly , with the sharks infesting the waters it would be harder to get lay bets taken slightly out of value of course - but some of the football markets are barren this season which used to be busy .
Barcelona and Real Madrid matches for example were a hive of activity - but seemingly not so on SB this season ? don't get that at all  |
|
By:
|
|
By:
And yet in a 2 runner market if both can be backed at evens these bets do not get cross matched. And don't forget the free runners bf gets on markets with more than 2 runners.
Price rush - well its better than nothing, but doesn't attract price senstive punters to betfair sportsbook or exchange when they could be if they advertised the better odds in the first instance. Spanish matches - are you taking into account alot of Barca and Real matches are on Saturday 3pm this season? |
|
By:
And yet in a 2 runner market if both can be backed at evens these bets do not get cross matched.
Erm, yes they do. |
|
By:
* usually (it can still be turned off, can't it?).
|
|
By:
Theoretically I suppose. But if you put money into an empty market on one side, it will almost always appear on the flip side.
|
|
By:
Certainly on tennis match odds I would see evens lays on both players. Actually there was a period when cross matching seemed to come and go in the same match, maybe thats when I'm thinking of.
|
|
By:
I think the crossmatching algorithm has got tighter and more efficient. There certainly seemed a time not long ago when - particularly on tennis matches as you've also mentioned - that the bot couldn't keep up with the amount of money being matched. I rarely see that any more. Though I also admit, my own strategy has changed and I also tend to play in fewer tennis markets.
There was certainly a period when it happened so regularly. I've seen it so rarely that I can actively think of the two times I've most recently seen it - one was a tennis match in July when someone overbet one part of the market because of an injury timeout; the second was an IPL match, which became extremely volatile and hence why it meets the conditions I mentioned above, back in April. The very fact that I can distinctively remember two situations and so long ago, makes me think the crossmatching bot algorithm is much more able to cope these days and so you won't see occasions when you think it "comes and goes in the same match". |
|
By:
The ideal solution is that the rebate should be applied to both Aus wallet and main wallet and then there'd be absolutely no gripe about it.
no, the ideal solution is to not skim in the first place and offer the virtual price at the true mathematical inverse of the real price. by all means display it as the closest odds ladder increment in the UI for consistency, but don't kid me that they store the odds as strings rather than doubles in their databases and code. |
|
By:
i've raised concerns about the "coming and going" of the cross matching bot during a match before on here. sometimes i'm sure i've only seen it working on one side of the market.
i can think of nothing that would make it anything other than a very simple bit of code to get it to work properly all the time; the notion of designing something that comes and goes is far more difficult, which begs the question: is its apparent "inefficiency" something else entirely? |
|
By:
but don't kid me that they store the odds as strings rather than doubles in their databases and code
Not sure how they store the odds and bets to be honest. A few weeks ago, I laid a bet as part of a trade at 1.01. I made a little bit less than I expected to do so on the market, and when I explored why, my lays at 1.01, were each taken by someone betting with something like £2.68. So for every bet he made, he made 3p, and not 2.68p. Over the entirety of the amount matched, by liability was more than it ought to have been because every single one was settled individually on his terms, and not over the entirety of my bet. |
|
By:
Coachbuster
Date Joined: 08 Apr 06 Blogger: Coachbuster's blog Add contact | Send message 08 Dec 14 21:24 Joined: 08 Apr 06 | Topic/replies: 27,053 | Blogger: Coachbuster's blog i say weirdly , with the sharks infesting the waters it would be harder to get lay bets taken slightly out of value of course - but some of the football markets are barren this season which used to be busy . Barcelona and Real Madrid matches for example were a hive of activity - but seemingly not so on SB this season ? don't get that at all Confused Barca and Madrid matches (and La Liga in general) are a great example of tumbleweed on side markets. Many will blame Betfair being banned in Spain but that was quite some time ago and there's been a marked fall this season. So much so I've given up. I took a look at Barca v Espanyol on Sunday and it was dead, so it's not just the Sat 3pm matches. |
|
By:
Betfair are finding that 'Customer Rush' to get better prices at the competition is more popular than Price Rush.
|
|
By:
The increase on their market share in the UK sportsbook sphere suggests otherwise, Westender!
|
|
By:
There is no doubt that BF sportsbook's prices are keener than when they first started but I think they could go further.
I'd like to see them being more agressive in their pricing up, given this price rushing, as why not advertise better prices in the first place? e.g Roma v Man City tonight, correct score: 1-1 BFSB shows 7.0, yet I got 7.5 price rushed 2-1 9.5 quoted, rushed to 10.0 1-2 10.0 quoted, got 11.0 0-1 12.0 quoted (the only price they are joint best on looking at oddschecker) but got a rush to 13.0 Given that they will be mainly dealing in small bets which can be serviced by the exchange market markers on correct score, I feel BF are missing a trick here in that they could be advertising almost best price on every score. Surely this will attract more custom, rather than offering a lesser price and then giving punters a bonus on their odds should they just happen to use BFSB. Give them a concrete reason to use BFSB in the first place I say. |
|
By:
But aren't the people they're trying to attract with BFSB the non-price-sensitive ones to begin with? And don't forget, the punter is only getting the exchange price less 5% commission. I don't play correct score markets, so not sure if that would alter your statement re best price?
|
|
By:
when they back 1 all at 7 and get a price rush to 7.5, they think its better than just getting 7.5 in the first place.
its like buying a new sofa. they are almost always on offer so creates an illusion u are getting a bargin. same trick they use in pound shops, that they say on a multipack odf say mars bars it will say 3 plus1 pack 33% extra free, even thou they are always 4 packs for a quid. |