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LIQUIDITY IN BIG DECLINE ON BETFAIR

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Replies: 756
By:
Coachbuster
When: 06 Dec 14 14:13
what will make it worse will be those  who will only cherry pick certain matches /events which were the most profitable - this will raise the bar even higher in terms of high standards .


only the strongest,or those with the highest levels of concentration will survive .

I'm now down to below the minimum wage on here .  The sheer boredom will eventually force me to retire from here .
Good luck all .
By:
Westender
When: 06 Dec 14 20:29
That is the problem mate - there is better opportunities to earn easier money in employment and Betfair offer no incentive now with the high commission and huge premium charges for winners.
By:
chrisblues
When: 07 Dec 14 08:41
in employment it  at 9,000  ish a year in tax free to start
on here it 1,000 tax free and that for life ?????????
something got to change
By:
Templeton Peck
When: 07 Dec 14 11:02
2.5 hours before kick-off of West Ham v Swansea and there are plenty of markets with (next to) nothing matched and 25%+ books.  Obviously not the main markets but still markets where you'd previously see tightish markets and hundreds or thousands matched. For example, First Goal Odds is 185% and £76 matched, Corners Match Bet is 116.1% and £8 matched.  Whilst not a big match, it's the Super Sunday live game and nowt else happening today.

So any casual punter who takes a look will not be in any hurry to return.
By:
acc
When: 07 Dec 14 11:57
That's because of the way the way the site is marketed now. Cash out is pushing the casual money to the main markets via the sports book.
Market makers on the side markets are dead or dying. The only people prospering are the high volume tight margin churners on the main markets.
By:
Westender
When: 07 Dec 14 12:01
Betfair appears to have followed a strategy leading to self destruction and it is clear from the relentless decline of Exchange liquidity week by week, that increasing numbers of customers now bet elsewhere or spend their money on non betting activities.

Betfair don't appear to have realised that they need customers to survive and customers don't need Betfair to live their lives.

The unique selling point was the Exchange with better prices and all that will be left within 2 years is an Exchange with blank boxes and a small Sportsbook in a saturated market.

Looks like Betfair has had its day unless there is a change of strategy away from a Sportsbook offering poor value to customers compared to the competition.

The concept of peer to peer betting was a great success until the premium charges were introduced and it is only a matter of time before new well funded entrepreneurs fill the increasing gap in Peer to Peer betting.

It is unlikely that a proven risk free profitable business model will not attract new entrants.

If Andrew Black etc could do it with Betfair then it will happen again.
By:
layer1982
When: 07 Dec 14 12:30
They are making money on sports book and that's all they care about...someone else will have to come in and start an exchange that works with very strong marketing to attract customers in again.
By:
TheVis
When: 07 Dec 14 12:34
"If Andrew Black etc could do it with Betfair then it will happen again"

Thay may not be true.  The whole thing could have been a one off where a massive slug of less informed money got gobbled up by those more informed and the whole thing will never be repeated.
By:
Westender
When: 07 Dec 14 12:36
Betfair used to have the best marketing in the industry and it was free - recommendations from customers made the business grow like a snowball rolling down a steep long hill.

Any new entrant(s) will benefit from the same free marketing and any new business will grow rapidly once word starts to spread.
By:
Westender
When: 07 Dec 14 12:45
'Thay may not be true.  The whole thing could have been a one off where a massive slug of less informed money got gobbled up by those more informed and the whole thing will never be repeated.'


The betting industry has large numbers of customers frequently replenished by new blood.
By:
layer1982
When: 07 Dec 14 12:54
I hope you are right Westender with regards to growth of any new exchange, but I must admit others have had enough opportunities to start and failed...so not confident at all. Betfair also know this and have taken full advantage.
By:
layer1982
When: 07 Dec 14 12:57
Only difference this time is if Betfair has no liquidity then others will be more patient with a new site, which could crate that snowball effect. Hopefully Betfair get what's coming to them, for being greedy.
By:
layer1982
When: 07 Dec 14 13:00
They are gambling with a guaranteed winning model, to take a punt on the sportsbook. I suppose they feel they could always go back to the exchange if it failed.
By:
pablo-fanque
When: 07 Dec 14 13:03
didn't betfair just post record profits ?
By:
Coachbuster
When: 07 Dec 14 14:14
layer = i think that's the game

they're hoping Sportsbook takes off and rivals B365 etc

IF it did /does - then Betfair will be laughing and the exchange will be discarded like a pair of old Boots .

If SB fails then of course they can try to strengthen the exchange with sweeteners .

Westender is correct  when he mentioned the one off success - i believe it was a  one off ,and i believe it maybe another generation before we see the like again .

Remember when BF started there were no other sites offering in -play  , now they're all at it
By:
Coachbuster
When: 07 Dec 14 14:19
I don't know for certain ,but i'd take an educated guess and say that most of BFs customers were backers not layers - so this facility exists elsewhere .

The layers will be  the Pro's in the main using relatively high volumes taking the value  .

That's my take
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 07 Dec 14 15:34
Betfair need to sell the exchange and keep the sportsbook.
By:
Coachbuster
When: 07 Dec 14 16:16
i sure as hell wouldn't buy it - it's a dead dog .
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 07 Dec 14 16:47
I'd love to buy the betfair exchange. I'd turn it in to the one of the best places to bet in no time.
:)

Get rid of all the rubbish betting markets, add some exciting new ones...
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 07 Dec 14 16:49
It needs a lot of work that's for sure. Would have to start with the pricing and then the disastrous website and go from there.
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 07 Dec 14 16:51
Actually come to think of it, I wouldn't like to buy it. It needs an absolute complete overhaul from top to toe. Bye. Laugh
By:
Latalomne
When: 07 Dec 14 17:34
I am kind of half intrigued by where they can take Price Rush, I have to say.  The ironic thing about the sportsbook at present is that they must be price-rushing almost everything to the exchange.  Take today's snooker final as an example.  BFSB goes 2/9 / 3/1, while the exchange is sat at 1.27 / 4.5

The actual risk they must be taking themselves is miniscule, particularly if they're limiting people as is being suggested.  And if they can expand the number of markets covered, then there is a chance the whole thing could get the much needed kickstart the non-main exchange markets need.
By:
Westender
When: 07 Dec 14 17:51
The only problem with the above is that there is no longer sufficient rewards for the layers taking all the risk laying higher odds.

There is only so much water that can be squeezed out of a wet sponge and unfortunately for Betfair the sponge is nearly dry.
By:
Latalomne
When: 07 Dec 14 18:00
Guess it depends upon how you play, but the problem I've had with many of the side markets for a couple of years now is that there are no backers.  If there are no backers, you inevitable end up offering shorter odds, and the whole thing eventually stops being worth anybody's time.

If all of a sudden, BFSB starts price rushing some backers' money to these markets - and they're almost certainly not going to be going out on a limb with their own prices - you might not have to be too tight to start to see some action.

That's not to say that there's not an awful lot that needs addressing exchange-wise, not least the pricing, but curiously, those figures about BF's increased market share have caused me to feel rather more optimistic about this place than I've felt in an awful long time.  Whether it bears fruit, I guess only time will tell....
By:
pablo-fanque
When: 07 Dec 14 18:27
isn't it also the case that the longer time goes on , the more people are trapped into PC1 and PC2 , which means they now need win more to re-coup money taken by betfair , which means money being taken out of markets faster , betfair not advertising the exchange , so liquidity dies quicker .
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 07 Dec 14 19:55

Dec 7, 2014 -- 6:00PM, Latalomne wrote:


Guess it depends upon how you play, but the problem I've had with many of the side markets for a couple of years now is that there are no backers.  If there are no backers, you inevitable end up offering shorter odds, and the whole thing eventually stops being worth anybody's time.If all of a sudden, BFSB starts price rushing some backers' money to these markets - and they're almost certainly not going to be going out on a limb with their own prices - you might not have to be too tight to start to see some action.That's not to say that there's not an awful lot that needs addressing exchange-wise, not least the pricing, but curiously, those figures about BF's increased market share have caused me to feel rather more optimistic about this place than I've felt in an awful long time.  Whether it bears fruit, I guess only time will tell....


I don't quite understand price rush, but if traders (layers) are getting matched by sportsbook backers, but there are less layers on the exchange, then they're going to be stuck with half a trade. If that makes sense.

By:
Latalomne
When: 07 Dec 14 20:07
Not sure it does, Darlo! 

Getting stuck with half a trade has been the reason I've stopped laying in a lot of these markets. 

BFSB, in theory, will be price rushing both sides of a two-way market.
By:
frog2
When: 07 Dec 14 20:16
Is pricerush a real thing used on all markets for all bets or just a gimmick used at random?

If it was real wouldn't all outsiders in horseracing be pricerushed in the win markets?
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 07 Dec 14 20:16
Ah, if it price rushes both sides then fair enough. Maybe, I was thinking more of the horse race markets.

Getting stuck with half a trade has been the reason I've stopped laying in a lot of these markets.

However, on this point - and that's where maybe I was heading - I totally agree. There's certain times I won't play in some markets when I previously would because of the lower liquidity and getting stuck with an exposure I can't do anything about.
By:
Latalomne
When: 07 Dec 14 20:23
Frog - I'm not sure if it's been wheeled out across the board, but I read something recently (might have been the latest PC newsletter?) claiming that 83% of bets on one market (can't remember what) had been price rushed recently.  Team that up with the market share growth stats, and it makes for interesting reading, I feel.

Darlo - I think a punter will get price rushed if the odds they've asked for on the BFSB are bigger on the exchange after 5% commission.
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 07 Dec 14 20:25

Dec 7, 2014 -- 8:23PM, Latalomne wrote:


Frog - I'm not sure if it's been wheeled out across the board, but I read something recently (might have been the latest PC newsletter?) claiming that 83% of bets on one market (can't remember what) had been price rushed recently.  Team that up with the market share growth stats, and it makes for interesting reading, I feel.Darlo - I think a punter will get price rushed if the odds they've asked for on the BFSB are bigger on the exchange after 5% commission.


But if you can't lay on the sportsbook (which I don't think you can do but not fully sure) then you're not going to get any lay money coming into the exchange via price rush, and therefore price rush is a lopsided benefit to the exchange and doesn't help - and can in fact hinder - lay-to-back traders.

By:
Latalomne
When: 07 Dec 14 20:30
I can only speak for myself, but it certainly increases the appeal of market making once more.
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 07 Dec 14 20:34
To be honest it does me, but I'm going to try be aware more of it both positively and negatively. I have been matched on some occasions recently and been confused as to how - I'm now wondering if I was matched via price rush - either that of it's the new API being so slow.
By:
TheVis
When: 07 Dec 14 21:52
Interesting point on this potential are for growth Latalomne which I hadn't really considered before.

Does BF have a list of price-rushable markets?  Any ideas on what %age BF are skimming in giving somebody a price rush? - I assume they are taking their own cut out of brokering the deal.
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 08 Dec 14 01:58
Sure it would skim much more than the cross matcher.

Say a selection is 1.5 on the sportsbook and 1.59 on the exchange. they use fractional odds on the sportsbook so would price rush the sportsbook bet to 8/15 or 4/7 and keep the difference for themselves. On top of that if the exchange users bet wins he pays a 5% commission.

I guess that's how it works I don't use the sportsbook myself.
By:
Latalomne
When: 08 Dec 14 07:23
I presume "all" (and I realise that actually amounts to a huge amount) Betfair are getting is 5% (what would have been commission on the exchange) of the profit on the exchange price?  I guess they will be trousering any rounding errors too.

TBH, I don't really have any problem with any of that.  It's good for BF's bottom line and it could help to increase the amount of backers' money in the exchange, albeit you won't actually see it appearing on the screen.  The BFSB punter is happy too because he's getting a bigger price than he'd asked for.
By:
DStyle
When: 08 Dec 14 09:43
It's been said on here before, but the single strongest marketing point of the exchange was the "Winners welcome" message.

The "best prices" was of course strong, and where they pushed hard, but it is tragically evident that a large tranche of the gambling community just don't care, to the extent that you can have an exchange and sportsbook running side by side, and offer something like Price Rush.

However they never really exploited the power of uncovering account limiting and suspension at the traditional bookmakers. I always thought that getting their best customers to produce video diaries of their accounts slowly being shut down on other sites would be an excellent campaign, because you'd want to paint the picture of being a mug if you weren't on betfair.

Of course that message was hugely undermined by the premium charge.

For a long time I've conceded that the premium charge at a basic level is a necessity: i don't think betfair or any exchange can afford to bring in customers at a loss to be picked off by the winners, but i would contend that 20% seems too high. What's more this level should be dependent on marketing spend, not static. We know that they've cut that budget significantly and the 20% remains calculated a time when it was much higher.

The higher rates, in my opinion, are and always have been a hamfisted attempt to tax those who make money due to two deficiencies in the model: namely inadequate in play delays and a commission structure which allows numerous derivative bets in a single market to be virtually commission free, with commission charged only on net profits. There a group of people in the higher (and here's the vested interest) who don't use an advantage from these areas who should not be taxed at these rates.

A flat rate PC, fairly calculated and a drop in commission rates with an upwardly sliding commission scale based on the number of hedged bets* placed in each market would be an interesting experiment.
By:
layer1982
When: 08 Dec 14 14:11
Premium Charge is not the problem now....And people paying it can only accept it. Problem is there is no liquidity on Betfair and is reducing by the day. The exchange is dieing  and nobody can stop it by the looks of it.
By:
Templeton Peck
When: 08 Dec 14 14:52
PC is a problem but is not the main problem. That dishonour lies with the sportsbook. Type www.betfair.com into your browser and you get the sportsbook. The Exchange is given less priority as Casino and Arcade which have offers on this homescreen.  Exchange is just a small word next to Casino, Live Casino, etc.

Punters who know Betfair have the best prices but not much more than that will not realise they need to visit the exchange.  Betfair are milking their exchange reputation for their sportsbook.

They know this. They know we know this. They don't care about us but about making their sportsbook a success.

I'd love to have seen what would have happened if they'd slashed commission and focussed on winners being welcome rather than take the complete opposite approach.  Could have the sportsbook too but give it another name and still link into the exchange.
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 08 Dec 14 15:04
For a long time I've conceded that the premium charge at a basic level is a necessity: i don't think betfair or any exchange can afford to bring in customers at a loss to be picked off by the winners, but i would contend that 20% seems too high. What's more this level should be dependent on marketing spend, not static. We know that they've cut that budget significantly and the 20% remains calculated a time when it was much higher.

I agree. I don't see the major problem with PC and don't think the exchange is sustainable enough without PC, but the levels are essentially draconian.
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