pmbets , why do you say the tote is often higher when it clearly isn't ?

Either I'm looking at the wrong tote prices, or I agree with pablo. Most US horses I see the exchange price is way higher than the tote price.

I'm with Darlo and Pablo here; not only are the BSPs almost always better than the Tote (by inspection) but conceptually they have to be as the takeout is so much smaller.

And as for 'liquidity is excellent of the Tote'; well, I suppose you can always get a bet on at any size you like, but the more you bet the more you destroy your own price.

betfair highlights the cash out feature as a major contributor to the current growth in their business model, however they failed to highlight that the cash out feature is intrinsically linked to the liquidity in the exchange which appears to be in decline. This inevitably will offer more poor value cash out options across many markets on the betfair platform

On the other hand the cash feature is a great tool when the markets are liquid, i have used this feature as a point of convenience, but less now as the cash out price does not reflect the relative true odds because of the lack of liquidity in certain markets.

@longbridge "Perhaps the poor saps who were losing 6k to 8k a month to you on basketball found something more fun to do with the money?"
Perhaps the poor saps are loosing 6k to 8k a month on sportsbook?

the dream is dead. perhaps betfair did me a big favour with the £250k+ pc thing. luckily i had a buffer (which seems increasingly hard to use up given the lack of liquidity: it feels like there's an asymptote below it) before hitting the £250k, so I've been able to continue making some money while I've been studying to make myself more employable (although we'll see if i get any of the jobs i'm in the process of applying for).

The pure exchange concept as a money making business is limited.

It can only exist in the world between the 100% book and the industry overrounds. The internet has tightened these margins for all.

Even within this murky world there are plenty of mouths wanting to be fed..the arbers/scalpers/cheaters/traders /winning punters/market makers..etc etc.

How many punters are there wanting an outcome position on the 2.30 from Fontwell on a wet Monday ? The market is limited and declining.

There is not enough margin to feed everyone. BF provide the mechanism for the rest to work their slice, but then from their share still have to pay huge overheads.There isn't enough profit and growth to satisfy the shareholders.

If they increase their commision rates the whole USP of better value to everyday punters disappears.

They have said enough is enough, and decided that the way to grow the business is to concentrate on promoting products with greater margins, and a greater potential for future growth.

Everything has advantages, disadvantages. Main advantages of exchange will always be:
1) Highest Price
2) The exchange don't limit your bet as bookies do. (Paddy power, Bwin, S James, Sky bet, Betfred- they all limit me)- I wasn't even high stake customer(Maybe on S James I was). On S James- banned. Bwin max 25 GBP. PP max 200 pound.

The betting exchange  model is on it's knees now.Daq just copies betfair but only a few minutes before the off
and with a few ticks lower prices which is still a wafer worse after taking betfair pc into account.
The daq has no real punter in their exchange.
I give  the present old school exchange  boys 3 years max. before it is closed down(exchange only)
just hope some new company comes in soon to restore the exchange model to it's former glory.

betfair is in a poor state at the moment,an unreliable website has driven the serious punters away.
Too risky for most and bots make the workload far too hard and time consuming etc

Liquidity last night on the NFL, Heat basketball and Argentinean overnight football all seemed a massive increase on recent weeks.

better prices fixed odds TABs nowadays and no commision

people seem to hate betting on betfair because it seems really dodgy all the time is the problem I think.

I can't speak for anybody else, but my own experience (bets pre-event) goes something like this...

For many years, 90% of my activity was on Betfair. I always loved the exchange model but always felt 5% commission was far too much and would eventually come down when competition stepped up. Needless to say, when the opposite happened with the likes of Premium charge and the evaporation of most of the offers (1% total goals markets etc) I began to look elsewhere more and more.

Fast forward to 2014...

One simple email to the purple, followed by one phone call and they put my commission back to 3%. I started to try to shift my horse racing bets to them.

Smarkets became an option in horses too at 2%, and I found myself (with a bit of practice) getting matched at Betfair prices on both of these places but for half the commission costs on average. Needless to say, all my Horse money left Betfair.

NHL Hockey....Matchbook markets tightened and all my NHL bets went to Matchbook on the 1% markets.

Football....All my match odds and goal market bets go onto Matchbook first, and if I fail to get matched at the right price, go into Smarkets next....Betfair is a last resort, usually accounting for less than 20% of all Football bets for me.

Tennis...as a pre-event backer./layer, most of my tennis bets would also get matched at Betfair prices on Matchbook (1%)...if not, Smarkets....final option Purple.

Overall, the 90% of my liquidity i used to send to Betfair, now accounts for around 10% in 2014. One single reason....commission.

I hear that Matchbook are delving into Horse markets in 2015 and I will be keeping a close eye on how it develops.

As I said at the top of this post, I can only speak from my own experiences....but there must be many other people like me who have done similar.

The market for betfair is really those interested in analysis and trying to work on an edge - to varying levels of depth.  That is a big market as the original growth showed. An edge of 2-4% before commission is a real achievement the day.  But that leaves you negative 1% to negative 4.5% overall.  That is the reason people leave and do not tell their friends to get into it.  I can't remember recommending BF for years now.  I used too.  It is just hard these days. But with very efficient markets the average BF member will do th numbers and see the reality.  Now is share markets brokerage has fallen a lot - why? - a key selling point.  Surely the city boys who took control understnd that?

If BF set their commissions at say 3%, the carrot for existing and new members would be just in front of their noses.  Close enough to smell and even nibble.  Some form of premium charge could remain to stop the few cleaning up too much (or perhaps remove their volume discounts).  At 3% they would again have a product worth promoting and word of mouth would multiply.  As it is, dollars spent on marketing just create churn, not net growth.  BF should not assume dominance means they can just charge more - people have alternatives outside of exchanges, they also can just walk away from betting all together.

Losers are not price-sensitive enough to bet w/ winners on here. That is the underlying problem.

It mattered less when more of the losers' money was diverted this way by the bookies. But as the books have got better customer and risk management software, that isn't happening any more.

Champions league football never been so bad....Do Betfair even care though, that is the question...

I don't get it guys. The liquidity on big events is still massive. It's the lower quality stuff that's really suffering ie. the 7th best champions league game when there are 7 champions league games on.

Are you not getting matched because the spreads are too tight now?

I have also noticed how correct score 2 markets have bitten the dust somewhat even on the high profile matches - that's definitely one of the side markets suffering .