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however liquidity is not declining but going up
so this thread should have been called "my share of profits in big decline on betfair" _______________ This maybe close to the truth in reality - although it's sometimes hard to see before your eyes . With markets hyper competitive as they are it may appear the markets are floundering ,but in fact it's because it's harder than ever to get the price you wish for -somebody else gets in the way (the way it should be in all honesty) my point is i guess , is that if i lay a bet at fantastic value , it is seized upon in milliseconds - so someones out there ! nay, a dozen or more sharp minds are also out there . Looking for YOUR mistake The real problem obviously are the side markets (dying off) , that's because most of us are flocking to the busier arenas making it even more competitive |
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hat's probably a fair comment (kind of) from fixed, above.
The exchange still turns over a good amount of money, but the problem is more where the money is and how it can (or cannot) still be exploited by clever players. It's not about 'liquidity' per se, rather the use of the exchange, and the need for old strategies to be altered to find profits. Would it be true to say that the sharks are finding it harder to win in heavily funded mainstream markets, as there are less easily spotted value selections? Hence the idea of playing on here 'professionally' has changed, in line with that? Would be interesting to know the perception of more casual/fun punters about liquidity - my guess is that they would not see any problem at all, as all they want in a few well funded major markets to play. And they get that easily on here. __________ Stu , you have pretty much summed it up there in all honesty |
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Whilst what's been said recently is true, there are plenty of markets I work on which have seen a significant fall in the number of people betting, the amount of money available to be matched and the actual amount matched.
There are others which have seen a hefty increase, which obviously comes with tighter margins. I don't have an issue with this, although it does usually mean it's harder to come out on top. |
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Matchbook have full cover spreads of banner adverts with oddschecker, they must be growing quite rapidly now, as that will be very expensive
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NFL playoff stuff truly dire on in-play.
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Matchbook's prices on Oddschecker are incorrect because
they fail to take into account that commission is also paid on losing bets. If Matchbooks price is 4.0,the price on Oddschecker shows 3.97 when 3.94 is the correct price. |
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Hopefully we all bombard question for the Jan 2015 Q & A box ticking exercise.
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@fixed is a guy for whom liquidity is going up year by year(check the basketball forum)- ignore him!
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A maintour ATP tennis match - albeit one on the admittedly lower liquidity Australian wallet - has just been put in-play with just £398 matched so far!!
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given the timing of your post, you're referring to a qualifier match played in Auckland.
qualifiers rarely attract much prematch interest. |
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Yeah, you're right. It was a qualifier - qualifiers and main-tournament matches flipping at different tournaments confused me. However, liquidity on the tennis at the moment seems an absolute joke. I realise it's late night and with the Australian wallet, but it's not a touch on the previous two years at the same tournaments.
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Put some generous prices up, then. Sure liquidity will pick up quickly
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It's not about 'liquidity' per se, rather the use of the exchange, and the need for old strategies to be altered to find profits.
----------- true words from stu. as big as the issue of side market liquidity for me has been the sudden influx of bots into various football markets since the summer. it's much harder to compete with them than to destroy their margins - which can ironically create situations where totals matched actually rise dramatically on better prices, but with no real profit to be made. |
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Very true VEP.
That's what we've seen this year with some of our bots. A competing bot is able to price up the side markets in much the same way as us. We're both prepared to offer prices up to a level at which our profit margin is negligible. Therefore neither of us make any real money. It's rather like an auction where 2 people are bidding for a £1. It's pretty obvious how high each bidder is prepared to go, and that the successful one will make zero profit as a result! |
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Banning all Bots and turning this place into a genuine P2P website would help attract new customers
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bots are people that use a computer. quite common in 2015, happens in almost every industry
often this is also called "progress", but it does leave some behind (the "losers") |
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don't mind fixed he is an internet troll. quite common in 2015.
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We know that fixed FFS but the Exchange would be much better off in the long term if people at least had a chance of winning.
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@contrarian & westender:
it's not as simple as "ban the bots and everything will be better", we. the bots that have affected me worst are actually providing recreational punters with better prices. almost certainly, in my estimation, outright value prices in some case. the problem is, the front-running bots only do that so long as there's a competitor to lay in the market. because I'm pushing their prices as high as their model will take them, they offer dcent value. but, I'm making no real money from the effort. so, as soon as my motivation to drive them out of the market or just generally fck them up out of malice runs out, the prices will go back to being substantially worse than they were when I was manually making markets. in some ways it's analogous to starbucks opening in a street and just undercutting whatever the cheapest local cafe's charging for a cup of coffee. everyone gets cheap coffee... till the other cafes give up and shut down. what contrarian says about other bots competing with his is interesting. loads of new stuff with very deep pockets seemed to flood onto the markets after the world cup. in my darker moments I wonder if BF have reverse engineered winning exchange customers' strategies - or sold the data to a third party to do so. but actually - there's no evidence of that. probably an outfit or individual with good resources just put some hard work in over the summer. I hate it when people do that. |
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Plenty of money in racing that is not actually correct. Good example today was chunks laying a winning horse that I was monitoring in the market. It cannot all be 'correct' money, or these sort of wrong market moves would not happen.
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Liquidity in many of the Premier League markets this week (Tue and Wed) has been awful. Not that different to 3pm on a Saturday which has significantly reduced the last 2 or 3 years. It's pretty much just the matches live on Sky Sports now where I can get decent amounts matched. Anything on BT Sport doesn't get much interest and I might as well give up if a match isn't televised. Very worrying times.
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93 million pound traded on the Ireland v Zimbabwe cricket match tonight. Some markets aren't declining that's for sure!
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is that a record? chark
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Yeah cricket in general is growing.
Westender 16 Jan 15 11:48 Joined: 04 Jan 06 | Topic/replies: 3,247 | Blogger: Westender's blog We know that fixed FFS but the Exchange would be much better off in the long term if people at least had a chance of winning. Bots are nowhere near as good as the strongest manual traders on Betfair (yet), except in very fast moving markets like horse racing. In smaller markets bots stop skilled manual players, because it's pointless to compete. Making £5-10 per market is too low to bother for a skilled trader, but perfectly acceptable for a bot. So all the best traders will gravitate to big markets. This has always happened to some degree, but a few years ago there were some manual market makers in small side markets still able to make a very reasonable living. That's becoming more and more difficult. |
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Not sure Freddie, it's the most I've seen matched during this World Cup. Matches have been reguarly getting 70 - 80 mil traded on them. Even a few of the side markets have had millions traded on them at different times
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Football World Cup was similar - massively inflated liquidity with various side markets being more than tradable. The difference here being that the Oz wallet and unsociable hours to many people will hit some liquidity. Still encouraging enough that there is life in the exchange when it wants.
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TheInvestor2
07 Mar 15 20:32 Joined: 28 May 11 | Topic/replies: 2,460 | Blogger: TheInvestor2's blog Bots are nowhere near as good as the strongest manual traders on Betfair (yet), except in very fast moving markets like horse racing. In smaller markets bots stop skilled manual players, because it's pointless to compete. Making £5-10 per market is too low to bother for a skilled trader, but perfectly acceptable for a bot. So all the best traders will gravitate to big markets. This has always happened to some degree, but a few years ago there were some manual market makers in small side markets still able to make a very reasonable living. That's becoming more and more difficult. And how do you think Betfair's cross marker cross matching bot will affect bot users? |
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*cross market
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Horse racing liquidty has been particulary dire today, even by Sunday standards.
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Templeton Peck 08 Mar 15 09:23 Joined: 17 Sep 02 | Topic/replies: 3,968 | Blogger: Templeton Peck's blog
And how do you think Betfair's cross marker cross matching bot will affect bot users? Negatively I expect. |
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I think it's good for the exchange though (as is the original cross-matcher).
I just think the difference in price should go to the price taker rather than to Betfair. |
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I do tend to agree that the crossmatching bots are beneficial to your average punter.
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NBA points markets were never that strong but are now virtually unworkable which is annoying as they one of my fave markets, why on earth do they have 4 of them up for most games? it's bewildering. not enough money to go around & on a busy night with 12 games overlapping thats 48 points markets hoping to attract money.
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I just think the difference in price should go to the price taker rather than to Betfair.
Just shows what sort of company they are. Also don't like the continual nicking of 1p or 2p on settled bets, seeding early markets to 123%, using bots to lay bets and taking a large cut off that, etc... All leads to poor value for your average punter. |
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YEAH...iv noticed the 1p's often go missing. Reminds me of the scene from superman 4?? when some company are skimming off 1cents off everyone and making millions before the black computer tech guy finds a way to cream it off himself.
hundreds of players in hundreds of markets losing hundred of pennies....will soon add up! |
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Have never really done much racing on here, but how does liquidity on Cheltenham seem to compare to previous years?
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Difficult to know, but it is miles better than any other meeting. Just about the only card where you can bet and lay win and place for four figure amounts without moving the price significantly.
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really picking up on the football for big matches ,still sluggish for certain EPL matches ,avoid the side markets if you want volume imo - Cheltenham has also been fairly busy as you'd expect
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On the missing '1p' issue - noticed that it also doesn't always match the 'whatif' figures that come up on the market - will say something like a selection is at 0.0, but when settled it ends up -1p
That cannot be right really can it? |
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The purple place was booming for Cheltenham - done all my race bets there this week.
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