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LIQUIDITY IN BIG DECLINE ON BETFAIR
LIQUIDITY IN BIG DECLINE ON BETFAIR
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Replies: 756
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its a joke. even now the premier league markets aren't worth a bet until a couple hours before televised game. theyve put up a few future markets such as the 2019 rugby world cup so they must have some sort of plan in store.
cant understand how no competitor has emerged in the last few years. |
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"cant understand how no competitor has emerged in the last few years."
Costs of startup are astronmical, plus marketing, mean only established bookies could afford a decent exchange offering. Why would they, much more money to be made with a sportsbook ? |
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That did not stop Betfair, Facebook, Ebay, Amazon etc and won't stop new entrepreneurs making a move in the betting industry when the market is ripe for change.
This day becomes closer with each passing day as Betfair Mgt grinds a risk free profitable business into the ground. |
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I see challenges coming from 2 directions.
One is India, where some states are moving to legalize sports betting - illegal gambling in India is huge and almost all on cricket. If a viable cricket betting exchange comes out of India, liquidity would move very quickly. I'm a pretty big cricket trader and I'd have no problem with an India based exchange with credible backing. The other challenge is from Sports fantasy betting, which is rapidly globalizing from it's USA base. For legal reasons, it's not properly p2p in the USA nor is betting on actual matches allowed, but just a small changes to their model in juristictions where p2p is legal. |
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I wonder if this is a New Dawn for the Exchange model or a False Dawn http://www.sbcnews.co.uk/europe/uk/2015/11/23/betfair-gains-first-new-jersey-exchange-wagering-license/
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the sportsbook cant make them much though can it? no serious better can get a bet on. im a small punter but even im restricted to "no bet" with the book.the big guys are whats needed on the exchange. hopefully the charges get put back to just commission and everyone will be happy in the end.
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Not had a bet for over a year on Betfair
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"its a joke. even now the premier league markets aren't worth a bet until a couple hours before televised game."
When I started in 2009, most of what I did involved Premier League side markets the Tue-Thu before a PL match. Now these markets aren't even loaded until Thursday and you'll literally see £0 matched until a few hours before kick off. I've now all but given up on Sat 3pm football as their side markets see peanuts matched. |
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what is "sports fantasy betting"?
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http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/12380815/the-skills-required-succeed-daily-fantasy-sports-espn-chalk
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Plenty love the way the business is being run. Squeezing out the juice for the shareholders and not the sharp minds. Share price hits £36. Company valued at well over £3bn.
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Cheers Gin. I actually had a look at a football version called mondogoal. Thought it was ridiculously complicated. It made the premium charge look like something you'd find on Sesame Street
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Backers have gone AWOL on quite a few of the sub markets on football and it starts in 25 mins. Man Utd v PSV champions league £511 matched on shown a card, not one single request for a bet.
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Johnny, you're confusing the exchange with the business. There's a reason they no longer report on the exchange...
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All we get is "sports book is rubbish", "exchange is finished" forum moans.
Meanwhile, Betfair is the darling of the City. Shareholders loving it. Who do think is right? |
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The forum as Betfair is finished - the takeover by Paddy Power has been approved.
BETFAIR NO MORE EXCHANGE NO MORE VALUE NO MORE FORUM NO MORE |
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is it fair to say that anyone out there who bets regularly(not peanuts) and still has a sb,paddy,365 acc open is a mug?
wonder what percentage of those are happy and see it as the equivalent of a pack of cigs,pint etc. these are the desired customers it would appear. and better than these are big punters who chase and bet on anything that moves. they will never be restricted. in fact i knows a few mugs who regularly get freebets and offers when they take a week or two off betting. its a no lose situation really for these firms but still they are not happy. even guys like me who like a small bet but like to take a bit of value say back a tenner on a 3/1 shot at 4/1 if i can find one are frozen out. i wonder what amount tax these firms pay it must be as easy as being a big drug dealer with no chance of being caught. i hope they are being taxed enough for printing money |
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it amazes me how people say you cant get value no more !!!
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Westender - which markets are you playing ?
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bets do get taken these days and extremely quickly ,but at more generous odds - for example in football, i used to lay the half time 3-3 score all day on here for 400-500/1 and got many takers ,but in 2015 there is a queue ready to lay at 1000 after around 35 minutes.
How times have changed |
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as time has progressed ,those in the know have adjusted the prices to realistic levels (and there are some that are also more inclined to take greater risks to part recoup staked funds )
it can only end in tears for those layers - every dog has it's day |
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@Westender
Just on a matter of fact: "the takeover by Paddy Power has been approved." Not only not approved, not even been put to shareholders (off PP & BF) yet. |
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it's hard when you see every edge you ever had on here disappear before your eyes , but you have to keep looking for new areas - different strategies -this is what Westender and (most ) of us must do .
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There was life before Betfair and people will survive no problem when Paddy Power close the Exchange after continuing to strangle the liquidity out of it.
Paddy Power Mgt at Betfair eat all the cake now and leave people to fight over crumbs. Who is going to fart about betting when people lose and the few winners are taxed between 22.5% and 62.5% of winnings? That is why liquidity is declining relentlessly week by week - people simply spend their time and money elsewhere on non betting activities. There is a plethora of business opportunities outside Betfair and a plethora of leisure activities for people to enjoy. That is the real competition for Betfair. |
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There was life before Betfair and people will survive no problem when Paddy Power close the Exchange after continuing to strangle the liquidity out of it.
Paddy Power Mgt at Betfair eat all the cake now and leave people to fight over crumbs. Who is going to fart about betting when people lose and the few winners are taxed between 22.5% and 62.5% of winnings? That is why liquidity is declining relentlessly week by week - people simply spend their time and money elsewhere on non betting activities. There is a plethora of business opportunities outside Betfair and a plethora of leisure activities for people to enjoy. That is the real competition for Betfair. |
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All this talk of Betfair exchange is finished is absolute nonesense. Of course its not. Far from it. Its just evolving as most things do.
This exchange will be around for as long as there isnt a viable competitor. |
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The Betfair Exchange is formally finished soon when the takeover by Puddy Flower is completed early next year.
That is the formal end of the Betfair Exchange and the end of an era. Puddy Flower is a bookmaker run by the current Betfair bookmaker solely for the benefit of shareholders. What do you think is going to happen - Paddy Power change their home page to the Exchange or advertise the Exchange  People think it is all over - hard to argue. |
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To say its the end implies the exchange's doors will be shut and bolted.
considering the money it makes do you honestly think that will happen? Sure, the commission system et al is keeping the market makers and big hitters away but you and me will me here for years to come until xyz exchange takes its place. Why hasnt betdq folded by now and thats owned a bookie.? cos it's paying its way. |
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There is a thread outlining numerous actions of what current Paddy Power Mgt has done to strangle the Exchange.
Let us know what Paddy Power intend to do to address the relentless decline in liquidity. The back of the Postage Stamp awaits your response. |
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How long does it take mate?
The forum and postage stamp rear awaits your response |
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Nobody is going to let a £3bn business slowly die.
Management now have a near perfect business model. Mugs directed to sports books ..Shrewdies grinding themselves to dust on the exchange. Throw in In house risk management through the exchange. What's not to like ? The price sensitive recreational punter can still dip in and out of exchange / fixed odds at near to 100% books. Nothing much changes for him. If he can no longer get a fair price on some of the more obscure markets he shrugs and moves on. |
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They thought they had a near perfect business model but they did not factor in the mass loss of liquidity and customers.
This has manifested itself in a sea of empty boxes as the dust cloud gathers by the week. It is a continual cycle of decline until the last Bot has no money to bite. Without a continual supply of customers and liquidity - there is no future for this particular Betting Exchange. It will get to a point where it is no longer viable and Puddy Flower will turn it off when it starts costing them money. |
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You can short the June share price at £37 right now
I assume you have a monster position ? Or maybe you are just spouting hot air because the business goes from strength to strength whilst squeezing you out ? |
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Johnny run along and spout your Corporate sh1te on another thread cos people who have used the exchange since the early days know the truth and dont give a flying **** about the share price or what "the city thinks"
Thanks for your input though |
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Did you naïve souls really think you would be allowed to piggy back your business through BF for ever?
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BF's problem is that it neglected the cashcow exchange, and spent a large slice of the profits on stuff that always lost money. They have been lucky that a viable competitor hasn't come along. But there will be sharp minds with access to deep pockets eyeing the betting exchange business in Silicon Valley, Bangalore and elsewhere.
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BF had a unique position in the early days, which we all enjoyed as the tech punting shrewdies
 , however the shift is evermore towards the footy punting mobile 20 something for the next stage...these guys have no interest in horses its all about instant punting |
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Hence the award-winning "tap, tap, boom" promotion.
Seriously though, it's a very good point. That very generation will have little interest in disembowelling the exchange for their price and punts. The exchange still has a part to play, but mobile technology can only have helped push it aside, along with a range of other well-debated factors. |
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What I find quite interesting that given their amazing pr exercise to cosy up then completely take over the the horse racing industry from 2001-2015 . The pr on the exchange is very poor . The chief executive recently admitted to not being sure when liquidity providers would refuse to continue or knowing what to implement to keep providers continuing.
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Can't see the liquidity coming from the youngsters, the exchange has been funded by hedge fund managers with huge pots, the dough will dry up soon..
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