Of course it will continue to drop off. Betfair is only interesting for small traders. We have one affiliate who bets close to a million a month with Pinnacle and hedges some back into the Betfair market through an agent for the lower commission, he was saying betfair is almost impossible for bot betting now. Even the racing has died. I find it all very sad but if they don´t want you don´t hang around!

Zoot

With all respect to you…you seem to mis -managed your thoughts…consistently you refer to a market (being very accurate) and latter refer to “ For example, some big players have a period where they push out the odds of the horses they want to back - backing difts seems to wrk to the average punter, then they shift to backing the best horses cleanly and let the weak ones drift as a normal market would expect. They would re-arrange this sequence at their will to keep everyone lost chasing the mirage.”

Betfair is a trading platform…not a true market place simply because as you stated it is extremely manipulated….as you will appreciate a bot can move prices up and down and….
Yes finding value and capitalize on those movements….but to the newbie brigade out there having them believe the market is accurate) is again with respect misleading those being guided by you….

The use of “accurate” is an expression thrown around…..describe or define for those taken in by your comments…use of that type of word carries with it a strong inference of certainty…which there is not…..and again your use of this type of term infers objectivity when quite frankly we all give different ratings of chance to an outcome based on our past experiences / criteria used in form analysis etc etc

Inform them and enlighten those fans of the manipulation that goes on to create mirages as you say …

Ok just all good ..just trying to inspire discussion but also trying to keep thoughts in the real world!!

henryluca,

My comments on accuracy are in the long long run. 

Personally I have found the whole thing quite facinating and I like data analysis and understanding what is going on in the markets and wondering about the future of BF.  That is my main reason for commenting and discussing these issues. However, as a hobby BF has to make a return for my time in the end that is reasonable and I think a lot of people on here are the same. My time on BF has paid for some nice o/s holidays for me in the past but is questionable now as a way to spend my time.

Mostly I have made money trading.  I've created some ratings systems but found them incredibly time consuming to keep updated and a bit of a ball and chain.  Go on holiday and **** you've got 3 weeks data to update! Tried a lot of systems of my own invention.  Lots have worked but often stopped when I increased my stakes or possible only worked in certain seasonal periods and time killed them.

BF attracts people who mostly don't just throw on a bet to make a game of tennis or whatever more interesting. They are trying to earn money.  So when liquidity or accuracy shifts it is something worth understanding for old timers and to also understand what newbies will experience.  What has BF got to sell the market now compared to 10 years ago?

I think the markets are both inaccurate race by race and very accurate long term.  As I've said, over the years I have found some really interesting "hot and cold zones" that are quite pronounced and show pockets of high value and inaccuracy. So race by race there is value all over the place.

I don't want to go into detail with an example on this as it might spoil someone's system and I may go back to it for another look one day.

But with certain odds movements and other criteria there are pockets of high value in certain situations and what I used to call "black holes" to myself. The sweet spots were very sweet and the black holes were bad places to be.  These patterns were quite repetitive over time and with other factors.  But they shifted around in ways that were really hard to pin down and I would sit in a sweet spot for a while and then a shift would mean I was missing it or hitting black holes. So while value and inaccuracy was clearly there, over the long haul, it moved closer and closer to break even.  Complexity is a big factor in the shifts but  I suspect without manipulation going on they would be more stable and could be pin pointed. 

I once read that bookies setting SP change the way they do it regularly to make it hard for the market to predict. If the SP reference point changes its calculation methods it can wreck your data analysis. I am sure big players on BF including bookies laying off do the same.

Anyway, some hard numbers on accuracy from my recent history.

8263 lay bets over 6 months across all tracks and countries, small stakes, horse and greyhounds, automated placement while I was asleep or working based on the best analysis I could come up for about 6 or 7 criteria excluding any detailed form analysis (big exclusion limiting my scope for edges, I know, but I stuck to factors that did not have to be tracked race by race in a complex way as tracking form is very time consuming).  End result?

Profitable before commission? Quite so at times but progressively shifting towards a slow loss. In amongst this time was some great runs.  ROI was 2.5% overall based on stakes exclusing the hedges.  After commissiom a loss.  I hedged a lot of the bets to reduce commission and improve profits but this did not overcome commission so I was pretty much exactly break even at the end of it all in terms of cash.

So I would have hit lots of value and inaccuracy with good value and poor value all mixed up but in the end overall the market proved very accurate.  I reckon the same approaches 10 years ago would have done very well.  I automated too late.

Good luck to those who have something great going> Smarter than me or put more time into form analysis.

But from BF's perspective and others users, ny experience with high accuracy is the norm for a moderately smart player and reflects what newbies experience and how word of mouth promotion will work to attract new players (Iain't telling my friends to join - did years ago). 

The only change that would really keep me interested would be commission at say 3% or 100,000 crazed USA punters joining and plonking on silly bets.

Obviously scale is an issue, in asking that. But if needs must...?

Zoot

A good reply by you. In passing --

Personally I have found the whole thing quite facinating and I like data analysis and understanding what is going on in the markets……yes me too

wondering about the future of BF…..nah …will be around for long time

Mostly I have made money trading……only a layer here

I've created some ratings systems but found them incredibly time consuming to keep updated and a bit of a ball and chain…..yes,,,way way too time consuming…..I prefer to use criteria straight off the betfair graphs

Stu

At least 15k in one lump currently backing a horse on exchange

How can you tell?

...and it sat there getting (at least partly) matched

I can understand Betfair prioritizing the sportsbook, simply because it's less vulnerable to changes in the taxation regime.

Any kind of a return to a turnover tax would kill the exchange stone dead. And that's not such a far-fetched idea. With the Tories having ruled out rises to income tax and VAT, all sorts of marginal areas suddenly become vulnerable. A turnover tax would be counter-productive, but I doubt whether Osborne or any civil servant would be capable of understanding why, so that's no reason for ruling it out. It would be an easy sell to Hard-Working Families, and on the surface an obvious way of raising money.

The bookies main message lately in their advertising is "make the game more exciting by having some money on the line" Winning is implied but not necessarily the sole purpose.  Quite a good message to attract average punters.  That plus better odds would work for BF with the exchange.  They are being out marketed and have been for years since the initial days.  That is where they should focus and reduce commission.  When you analyse your results it is such a massive drain - a leaky bucket that even average punters would notice.  Commssion should be small enough to be a minor annoyance not a profit killer.

Have recently looked again at some markets from different angles and found some interesting options in quite mature markets that I had given up on.  So value is still there if you look in the right places in the right way

Betfair has apparently left Portugal who currently send 7.8% of web traffic to Betfair.

MOVED MOST STUFF NOW

ITS HELL

I think he might have died, and is just sending us a post from the next place, BB.

What's the temperature like there, Pecker?

your golden days may be over, that is

this game has probably become more difficult and you may not have improved to keep pace



so do you feel old and slow now or do you not feel anything besides self pity ?

and yes fixed,we all need to adapt to change unfortunately  -that's part of evolution  i guess - that's why we live in houses with taps and sockets , and not caves

It's 2am and just checking the all the exchange liquid on the Southampton v Everton midday game saturday and Daq liquid is far better than betfair, both have the same prices Southampton 1.97 Betfair has £1236 Daq has £8386. That's a massive differnce.

smarkets not a Betting Exchange - it is a market maker linked to Betfair that bans winners

@DEI LINKE - not sure where you're looking but I can see To Score and First Goalscorer markets on every CL match tonight and tomorrow.

As posted in Football looks like it's not just one match, it's not all matches, it's *some* matches.

Trying to work out why - I'm a newbie to Football betting (been doing Racing for years)

Over the past few months, there has been increasing numbers of matches in-play on the Betfair Sportsbook BUT NOT in-play on the Exchange.

It is not just markets, it is the matches as well.

Then you go to the Sportsbook to get offered £2.27 on a 1.2 shot.

If you win mate you are only allowed to bet pennies on the Sportsbook anyway.

Complete waste of space.