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LIQUIDITY IN BIG DECLINE ON BETFAIR
LIQUIDITY IN BIG DECLINE ON BETFAIR
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where do i sign up for life at 5%
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Out of interest, any thoughts on the other, purple, place in this debate? Does it make much difference to these issues - they certainly have some issues different (eg lower commission)
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Bet daq put commission up to 5% a while ago. Matchbook and Smarkets have much lower commission.
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i'd sooner have the charge even though i dislike the way it;'s implemented .
>get rid of the premium charge then a lot of good players come back and then it becomes harder to win . do BF get the money or does another pro get it ? |
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Betfair is a trading exchange.....comparisons to corporate bookmakers mentioned on this thread is inappropriate and fanciful////
Betfair technology exceeds that of the bookmaker corporates in that it handles incomprehensible number of trades in nano seconds..... Betfair technolgy permits trades/lays and back bets Betfair graphs are invaluable tools not offered by the bookmaker corporates...... Any one who cant afford say a $50.00 commission on a $1000.00 win ...well believes in free lunches which dont exist in life...... This type of uninformed negative commentary distracts from the advantages of using betfair by many who perhaps cant afford the price of its technology///'// Less focus on chump change and more on its advantages.... And again ..it is a betting exchange....dont use it if you cant afford it and if you only win bet then go to the corporate bookmakers (run by accountants) GL |
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HL,
The point is that for many users it is not a case of paying 5% on the bets that they place. Some (and I have no sympathy for them) pay upwards of 60%. The technology aspect that you refer to is only really valid if it reflects the numbers of bets that a customer places within a market. If I am placing one bet why should I be charged the same amount as someone who places 2000 bets? The biggest problem with the pricing structure is that Betfair have never spent the resources to actually get to the bottom of it. I believe it was a very small team who implemented the PC in the first place and even now the systems in place to monitor it are utterly pathetic given the revenues it generates BF. Betfair needs to be far cleverer in its pricing structure and needs to go away and come up with something far more dynamic based on the sports involved, pre/in play, volumes of bets being placed, genuine liquidity being added to the site, length of account, etc. The 'one fit all' brush is simply not working and will eventually be Betfairs downfall in the long run. You know the system is fundamentally broken when you cant place pre off bets on certain sports because of the consequences of PC. |
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MM , you have no sympathy for PC payers as a whole , or are their certain ones you have no sympathy for ?
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I don't have any sympathy for courtsiders or those who are clearly using inside information. I would happily see them paying charges upwards of 80%.
Aside from that I generally have huge amounts of sympathy for PC payers (40% and less btw) as the charges are unjust and ridiculously disproportionate. Why should anyone pay a 20%/40% premium on a price taken pre off? |
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Pre off backer layer here
no fast pics, just RUK , betfair live video for ATR tracks no bots , just gruss PC payer . many more like me , but betfair make good money from PC , so there is no need to change anything from their point of view . 40%-60% is very harsh . |
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Its a difficult balancing act as BF will obviously get the short term benefits from such a money grab. What they seem to be missing is that over the longer time period BF will lose so many of these hugely important customers. It is very difficult to maintain that level of success over a sustained period of time (variance, increasing competition from syndicates, less liquidity, etc). Once these customers are lost they wont return readily. These customers are not being replaced. Very few new fish are coming to the exchange. It then becomes shark on shark with BF the only real winners (In the short term). It does not bare thinking about where the exchange will be in a few years time. Its why the share price is utterly ludicrous at the moment. All the City can see are the short term numbers which are wholly based on BF raping the client base for as much as possible in the short term with no regard to even the medium term. They are expecting some magical growth when the reality will be completely the opposite.
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Not necessarily the opposite, if they promoted to the mass market of punters better for the exchange - most would never be PC payers in any case, so that would be irrelevant in a large part. However, I do agree it is offputting and can hardly help their promotion of the exchange. Funny how all their official releases about the business never mention much about the impact of PC on publicity and promotion of the exchange. But will waffle on about how tricky it is to advertise the exchange....wrong minded in almost every way.
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Any customer around since 2006 could not fail to notice that the introduction of the PC in 2008 has resulted in a relentless decline in the number of customers and liquidity month by month.
The only exception to this is for the most popular and largest sporting events. Liquidity has collapsed in the rest of the markets. People spend their money now on either non betting activities or at the competitors. Betfair need customers to survive and the vast majority of Betfair customers don't need Betfair to live a happy life. Until that is understood, the liquidity on the Exchange will continue to fall week by week. |
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Marlas Magic
The point is that for many users it is not a case of paying 5% on the bets that they place. Some earlier posters seemed to think it was too high...I too think given all opportunities at the touch of a computer screen that 5% is right "coupon rate".....after all shareholders need to be content ..... The technology aspect that you refer to is only really valid if it reflects the numbers of bets that a customer places within a market. The technology is there 24/7 regardless of whether it is used or not.....one customer may have a minimum bet using the technology features eg. graphs/historical race trading trends etcbut it is there for that punter and the masses... If I am placing one bet why should I be charged the same amount as someone who places 2000 bets? Strange and mis-guided comment....consumer thinking....you pay the same rate cause that is the rate.....think of the different levels of "use"...cant cater for them all....(if I buy 100 litre of petrol why should I pay the same as person who buys one litre...  )....consumer mentality.The biggest problem with the pricing structure is that Betfair have never spent the resources to actually get to the bottom of it Bottom of what???missed any connection....do you mean bottom of concept of different rates for different players.....(now there is a minefield!!) even now the systems in place to monitor it are utterly pathetic given the revenues it generates BF. Given BF technology previously discussed I doubt if they have any "system" that is pathetic....your comment is a dart thrown hoping to hit something....sadly for you it didnt Betfair needs to be far cleverer in its pricing structure and needs to go away and come up with something far more dynamic based on the sports involved, pre/in play, volumes of bets being placed, genuine liquidity being added to the site, length of account, etc. The 'one fit all' brush is simply not working and will eventually be Betfairs downfall in the long run. Working as far as I can see... I am here every day and you are likely a user (perhaps casual but you still seem to be using) The fit one all approach works for many consumer products....we all pay the same for groceries/petrol doctors etc etc regardless of our usage... You know the system is fundamentally broken when you cant place pre off bets on certain sports because of the consequences of PC. I doubt if you ara a PC player...BF say something like 1% are anyway...why do you care what others are faced with.....if they dont want to use then thats their business....... Curiously last night at the Lingfield Championship meeting ....pools were always $2m + (seemed healthy enough) What they seem to be missing is that over the longer time period BF will lose so many of these hugely important customers. It is very difficult to maintain that level of success over a sustained period of time (variance, increasing competition from syndicates, less liquidity, etc). Once these customers are lost they wont return readily. These customers are not being replaced. Very few new fish are coming to the exchange. It then becomes shark on shark with BF the only real winners (In the short term). It does not bare thinking about where the exchange will be in a few years time. Its why the share price is utterly ludicrous at the moment. Such a wide broad unfounded statement or opinion disguised as a statement that best described as to the extent that it means nothing.....Footnote- I dont mean to be harsh just that broad statements defy objective discussion .... In any event your views will inspire others to think and hopefully any betfair fans (as I am) will also contibute... All good and GL |
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aside from the usual suspects still clinging to the thought that liquidity is declining user zooot got us some real nuggets here
first he identified big bad syndicates "creating false favourites in semi random sequences" and to make matters worse later they "targeted him" hey zooot do you have a contact from these syndicates ? i would like to donate money....they will need it soon and i don't want them to leave ! |
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I have heard from various sources that Betfair are looking decrease commission to 3% and to eliminate the Premium Charge in its current guise.
Not really - April Fools.  |
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Greyhound liquidity is poor at the best of times..... last few minutes (even 1 minute) before the jump is the action ( we all must know that)
Range is likely to be 6K-20K...cant ever expect much more...not enough time in the action zone of the last minute... I wouldn't and couldn't use greyhound markets as any type of litmus test... Sorry Darlo ....throw of the dart missed ... |
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BAGS racing liquidity is abject though I wouldn't really expect much else; I was more using the example to back up zoot's point that some rather unsubtle market manipulation goes on.
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unsubtle market manipulation goes on.
IMO---most definitely..even with horse racing ....bots at work .... eg. Have noticed that those that ease without peaking are bots that push prices out ....and win so often (from those i observed) its spooky.... Conversely "apparently heavily backed horses" can be a suck in Manipulating prices ...always method to manipulate exceptions In those circumstances...well spotted Darlo  |
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OOPs
exceptions ....expectations |
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You know the exchange is sh1t when you take a look at the Premiership football on a Saturday afternoon. Should be buzzing, it is anything but.
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The 5.30pm kick off Chelsea v Stoke City was alright. Big team on TV so there's interest in it.
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stand alone game -no horses to clash
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YOMOMMA, as I said on Twitter today, this is almost certainly my final season bothering with Sat 3pm Premier League matches. In markets where I used to have four figures matched, I now do 2 figures at best. Plenty of markets see
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..plenty of markest see less than £100 matched and many have £0. Not only is nothing being matched, plenty of seeders have clearly disappeared. If I leave, some markets will be completely empty. Only downside is making it easier for my remaining competitors!
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Templetin Peck
In markets where I used to have four figures matched, I now do 2 figures at best. Plenty of markets see less than £100 matched and many have £0. . If I leave, some markets will be completely empty. I assume this is a joke ..right!! "Plenty of Markets ( English Premier Football) see less than $100 matched and many have zero"..."If I leave , some markets will be completely empty" Apologies ..unvalidated self serving comments irk me GL |
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The IPL liquidity will be interesting to see now that its no longer on free to air here in blighty! The market for the 1st game is already well stacked this far out!
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Don't tell me it's on Sky. I thought it was on ITV for one more season. I'm certainly one who won't be trading it when it's on Sky.
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Can't see it'll make any difference. I'm sure much of the new money on the cricket markets is coming straight from India anyway. Anyone who trades cricket with big lumps in this country will have Sky in any case.
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Syndicates, well a certain ZR and co. has made headlines around the world. A known strategy in the Totes was for them to build false favourites and then back heavily seconds before the off to ensure their odds on their picked stayed longer. Search ZR betting billionaire and read around on what they do - lots of info out there. Makes total sense if you have the bsnk and the knowledge to manipulate to turn a small edge into a bigger one.
Me being targeted - well my automoted betting unavoidably had some repetitive aspects to it in terms of placement and timing. I tried to hide this and add some randomisation but I do think there are bots able to spot patterns of placement and exploit them. Computers could do so easily. Again, why not if you have the software to do it? Systems for manipulation in the stock markets have reached incredible sophistication and some of that knowledge has probably been applied on BF. Really good form analysts can still win if they don't just rely on the same info as everyone else but I think you would have to live and breathe the sport to beat the commission. A casual punter has no hope. |
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HenryLuca, unvalidated comments? Next Saturday, you should trawl through the Sat 3pm markets and see how many have less than £100 matched.
I'm more than willing to bet you there are some. Willing to take my bet? |
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Syndicates.
ZR: "His betting on Betfair is believed to account for one third of the company's Australian operations.[8]" Now if 1/3 of the volume on a race is from one source with a huge bank, deep understanding of form and a sophisticated understanding of the market and odds movement, do you think they would just spread the money based on the % winning chance and plonk down big bets early and then let the rest of the 2/3 of the money front run them? I doubt it. The odds would be massaged to suit their desired play to maximise gains from lays and backs using a range of strategies to disguise what they are doing and confuse traders and Weight of Money followers. All part of the mix. But it does mean that the newbie trader or punter gets hit pretty hard and fast from all different angles and might not stick around. They definitely would be less than likely to race out and tell their friends to join BF as happened in the early years. |
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Templeton Peck
Next Saturday, you should trawl through the Sat 3pm markets and see how many have less than £100 matched. As you are the author of the unvalidated comments I might suggest you validate them ..... (if my car breaks down I cant expect another to fix it) I'm more than willing to bet you there are some. Willing to take my bet? This passive assertiveness doesn't cut or detract from your unvalidated comments mysteriously being validated.... They may be (which I maintain my strong doubt) ...nevertheless the comments are broad self serving and therefore validation is required to give them any real credibility.....sorry ..just how it works  Up to you ! GL |
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I'm more than willing to bet you there are some. Willing to take my bet?
This passive assertiveness doesn't cut or detract from your unvalidated comments mysteriously being validated.... |
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Is Henryluca a rogue bot on tilt?
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Ro(gue)bot .....
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This is all rather weird. I have to validate all my comments on here to you? Hahaha! Many Sat 3pm markets have less than £100 matched. Fact. If I leave some markets, there would be £0 matched. Fact. Not sure why this irks you but probably best you talk it through with your shrink. :)
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As I understand it It's Illegal to gamble on-line in India so am guessing no enforces that but then how do Indian customers navigate the KYC?
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I don't know if Indians can bet or not on the site, but I was looking at one of the web traffic analysis sites and after the uk the country with the largest number of visits to Betfair was India at 16%. this might be because of the cricket world cup.
Also there is nothing unbelievable about the decline of money matched on the soccer side markets. These markets never really recovered after Betfair pulled the exchange out of Germany France Italy etc. and Betfairs more recent focus on the home market have killed off other markets that people outside the uk have an interest in. |