General Betting
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Would you pay for a system that always won?
Would you pay for a system that always won?
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Replies: 244
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Personally I think free betting on 2/1 shots are a waste of time . I'd be more inclined to think you'd get shut down for not clearing your cookies . It's a massive assumption that over time you'll make as much ... get in quick and get out quick. Also remember there are other places with lower commission.
Well assuming you're not bringing any real level of skill to this (and if you are, you're probably well past the point where you're messing around with free bets), a 12/1 shot and a 2/1 shot ought to be bringing in similar returns over time. I was suggesting that, when it came to redeeming the free bets, it made sense to lay them back here for a smaller amount and take a smaller but fixed profit on every one, rather than betting outright, with all the inconsistency that was implied there. And honestly, 12/1 shots can go in. If you win on a 12/1 shot, the bookies will definitely be having a look at you. With a 2/1 shot, that's highly unlikely - to the bookie, you'll seem like just another mug punter. That aside, whether you bet outright at the end or hedge is pretty much irrelevant. The crucial bit is getting yourself through the wagering requirements while actually only risking a fraction of the money. That's 'the system'. The bit at the end, where you choose what to do with the free bet (or whatever), is entirely up to you. |
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Harry22 - You will get no elaboration from BJT
It's a fact betting at bigger prices on the FREE BETS yields more return ... that's my point |
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Lord Bobbin ... ... I've only talked about the FREE BETS not the WAGERING REQUIREMENT and on BRITISH BASED BOOKMAKERS. Maximising cash is all about big prices/close match tactics
Of course the WAGERING REQUIREMENT it's all small prices/close match However , I disagree that the wagering requirement is "the system" as you put it , for me it's only part of the system , also I wouldn't necessarily lay on here too |
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Seems like this system has a bit of confusion amongst its users. Doesn't appear systematic to me, considering some of you don't even lay off.
Seriously, this system is: The bookies offer free bets as an incentive to be a customer. Do the bare minimum to get it. Bet it on whatever you like. Don't chase the loss. How you gooses are still going on about it trying to explain it to each other is beyond my comprehension. All the plankton arguing amongst themselves hanging around for another handout of 20 bucks that they can then feed to the sharks. rotflmfao |
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Well betting on the free bets yields more return, but dramatically increases the chances the bookies will take action against you.
BJT - See you're still here! You seem to be wasting a lot of time with the 'plankton'. Haven't you anything better to do with your important time? |
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Lord Bobbin ... Not sure about this ( bigger prices = greater chances of being gubbed ) it sounds logically but not in my experience has this happened - not clearing cookies and taking out of lines prices will also expose more too. Besides - in my experience when I did this for others - their sole focus was in and out as quick as possible - most weren't interested in retaining a long term bookmaker account.
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It's possible to lay 2/1 chance AT that price on here
but laying 12/1 usually entails laying somewhere between 14/1 and 20/1 heavily reducing your profit margin overall. It's a no brainer. |
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For once I agree with ken on that point, also backing a winning selection at say 12/1 with the bookie may well see your account getting closed.
Better to keep to short prices. |
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Quite often that's the case, Ken, but not always. You frequently have to wait until the minutes before the race goes off before some of the longer odds horses come in sufficiently. At the time of writing (4.17), Chemistry Maser in the 4.35 at Wincanton is 12.5 on here and 11/1 on B365 - I'm sure I could pick out closer prices on long horses if I wait through a number of races, or wait until 2 minutes before the off. You do have to be a bit more patient to get a close price on longer horses. The simple rule is, if you don't find a horse who's sufficiently closely priced, you wait until the next day. Nothing forcing you to take a price.
Scot - I guess the long-odds thing is just a matter of personal preference. As I said, though, winning on an 8/1 shot with Sportingbet made them highly suspicious, and I ended up having my free bet taken off me. Personally I wouldn't be wanting to take the chance. I guess it does mean you're likely to lose your money with the bookies more quickly, though, which is certainly a bonus. |
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It is possible although rare to lay on here but back with the bookie at higher odds, well before the off.
The back must be placed first as the price will disappear. The selection is determined on discrepency of prices, preferably shortish ones. |
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BJT 26 Oct 13 05:26
scot. I was talking about the people talking this up so much Harry. Just because 12/1 horses average winning every 13 races, doesn't mean for a second that every 12/1 horse has a 7.7% chance of winning. Some 12/1 horses should be 50/1. Some should be evens. Some 2/1 horses should be 20/1, some should be 1.20. Can't really argue with that but it is 2/1 as it hasn't shown any form to suggest it is a 1.2 shot...unless you are the trainer or connected to the yard and you know you have a frankel under wraps it makes no difference to the average punter that these prices are not correct. so are you able to identify such a horse without inside info?? |
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Great thread! Phew! I've finally caught up at last!
scotbet - You've mentioned cookies on here a few times saying that they could get you closed down. How much can the bookies actually learn about you from a cookie??? |
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There are various ways your account can be closed.
I winning on your account. 2 Always getting best price. 3.Alarm bells ring when big priced winners go in. 3 |
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Sheppy, there're quite a few different ways bookies use to identify and track players. Cookies are one way (IP addresses are another), so I suspect that deleting your cookies means you'll sometimes fly under their radar a bit more.
Having said that, if you're always logging in using the same account, the bookies will generally already have enough info on you to decide whether you're 'their kind of punter' or not. In that case, deleting your cookies wouldn't usually help you. On the other hand, if you're creating a new account and claiming not to have been with them before, it would probably help if you delete your cookies first, as otherwise the bookies may be able to tell from the cookie that you have a past history with them. |
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Yesterday I bet a horse at 12/1 at billys and laid here 13.0 - i've done this many many times over
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Thanks, that makes a lot of sense. I always log in using the same account. I don't arb much but do tend to play around with free bets etc.
I'm still curious of the whole cookie thing though??? I want to know exactly what info the bookies can get from it? Does the cookie tell them what sites I'm looking at etc? So in baby language it'd look something like this... "User has just gone on Betfair and is now looking at the 3.50 @ Aintree..." |
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sheppy look up iesnare
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Lord I've heard so many horror stories at sport ingbet not a D rated company for nothing
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Thanks scotbet. I've just looked it up. There's so much to read, I'll have to digest it over time.
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Cookies aren't really like that Sheppy. They're only tiny files with a very small amount of info in them. They're basically used so that sites can see how often you access their site, and whether you have any preferences as to how you want the site to be customised etc. They certainly can't use them to store the details of your bets, or anything like that. Think of cookies as being like your computer waving an ID card. Almost every site you go on will store some sort of cookie on your computer, so there's nothing really to worry about.
Just, if you're trying to pass yourself off as somebody who's never had an account with a site before, a cookie may signal to the site that you're lying. That's why you'd delete them. |
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Thanks LB you've made me feel a lot better. You've put it very clearly which I need cos I'm no computer whizz kid!
I noticed that Paddy's make a big deal of it, saying loads about cookies. There's just too much to read and take in! It really scared the crap out of me and was worried about putting a bet on! Many years ago I used some kind of cookie cleaner and I noticed that the sites didn't remember my details, so I had to type in my user name/password etc. This made me realise what a cookie did. Thanks again!  |
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When this system came to prominence a few years back - folk had been sharing each others computer - innocently not knowing that might be not allowed and I know of a couple of folk that had lots of problems over this very issue whilst trying to collect.
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As I said, though, winning on an 8/1 shot with Sportingbet made them highly suspicious, and I ended up having my free bet taken off me.
When this system came to prominence a few years back - folk had been sharing each others computer - innocently not knowing that might be not allowed and I know of a couple of folk that had lots of problems over this very issue whilst trying to collect. And here we go. The truth starting to finally come out. Lucky it has been guaranteed. So when somebody comes along and uses a 50 pound free bet on a 20/1 shot that gets up, they lose 1000 on BF, bookie takes their free bet off them for free bet abuse, they know where to turn to get their money back. |
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Oh dear... Poor little BJT... You really are determined to quash this, even though there are now a bunch of users on here confirming that they do similar systems, and that they work. No 'truth starting to come out'. SB did give me the winnings, but the free bet that I had sitting on my account was removed. No loss, but I did have my future use of a free bet taken off me.
I have said numerous times on this thread that this is a pretty much flawless system, and about the only thing that can go wrong is that the bookie reneges on your bet. If you stick to 2/1 or 3/1 shots, this is unlikely to happen, since there's little they would have to be suspicious or annoyed about - although, obviously, if you've had previous accounts with them, and are only pretending to be new, they'll probably withdraw the offer. So, stick to my guidelines and there's very little chance indeed that the system will go wrong - there is a very small chance, still, hence my figure of 95% rather than 100%. But if you stick to 2/1 shots, what's the worst that can happen? Generally, they'll take the free bet off you before you've had a chance to use it, in which case you would only lose the money spent trying to get to the free bet in the first place. With Sporting, a £50 bet needed to be placed before getting the freebie. Had I been doing the system in this case (this incident actually happened before I started using free bets in this way), I might have lost £3 or so on the initial £50 bet. And that would have been it. £3... It's possible SB could have refused to give me the winnings at all. That's very unlikely, since it gets them into all sorts of potential problems- generally speaking, if bookies are suspicious about you but have no proof, they pay up and then close your account, unless they're on the line for a huge sum. Had SB refused to pay up, I would have lost however much my lay was. On a 2/1 shot, you'd be looking at a loss of around £100. Painful, but no big deal. As I've said, stick to shorties, and the chances that a new user will have their bets left unpaid by a bookies are tiny. Even if the 5% chance happens, and they don't pay out, you'll only be £100 or so down. There are several hundred pounds available to new users in fairly simple free bets, so you're almost certain to end very much in profit, despite one setback. And that one setback won't happen if you stick to short-priced horses. Nothing for a 'big fish' like you to see here, BJT. Jog on, old bean. |
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kenilworth
18 Oct 13 14:49 The simple answer to the 'problem' is just to get your free bet on, going for a fancied horse, if it wins, draw, end of. If it loses also end of. Backing, say a 2/1 chance, assuming it's a true 2/1 chance, you will break even twice, win £100 once, every 3 picks. In theory that is! If anyone sees that as feasible, GL, but I don't think it will work in reality. Lb, I think was I who suggested sticking to the shorties. |
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Well actually Ken, if go back to the 13th, and certainly back to the 15th, Iprefertolay and I were both stressing then that winning on long-shots would bring you to the attention of the bookies, and that that was to be avoided..
That was at least three days before your post! Back over the net to you...  |
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Absolutely no sense betting your free bet on a shortie - it's really so straightforward.
Every £50 free bet yields over £12.50 extra betting 12/1 as opposed 2/1 I just don't buy stick to a shortie and the chances are tiny - and it won't happen if it's a shortie THERE IS NO EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT 12/1s PICKS PLACES YOUR BETS AT GREATER RISK OF NON PAYMENT On bookies that not A rated and / or NON UK I would underlay - simples also - hoping to bust out again and here you do have to cake lower odds just in case they limit you . It's research first , bet 2nd. Seriously are Willies going to not pay out on a 12/1 winner ? The newspapers would have a field day Really get a grip here And for the record there is nothing wrong with betting 2/1 as free bets but aren't maximising your returns. This thread should be called here's a system I prefer to do and it should win betting 2/1 shots as your free bets. |
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I'm not fighting a losing battle at all BJT. I think you might have lost the evolutionary battle with my bath-mat, though.
What I'm doing is allowing for the very tiny possibility that the bookies could refuse to pay you. I stress, that's *never* happened to me. I did have my future free bet withdrawn by Sportingbet. But they did give me my winnings on the qualifying bet at 8/1. Had my qualifying bet been on a 2/1 shot instead, I doubt they would have batted an eyelid. I stress. If you are a new user, and you bet on 2/1 or 3/1 shots, there is NO CHANCE the bookies won't pay out. There would be NO REASON for them to think that you're either suspect or a shrewdie. |
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LB,kenilworth Joined: 04 Nov 05
Replies: 12544 12 Oct 13 18:33 iprefertolay, the sceptics haven't gone quiet because of LB's post. Actually there is no need to go through all that rigmarole, suffice to jut take your free bet, if it wins, you collect, if it lose it's no bet, no loss LB, I can't be going through all those posts, but if you claim a first, I am quite happy to let you have it. My view was, keep it simple, betting perhaps a 2/1, no complicated 'greening up' win once, lose twice, collect the profit from the winner, move on etc, etc. If your ideas were better than that, I accept. GL. Bookmaker have you hooked with the bait, exactly what he was aiming for. |
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kenilworth
18 Oct 13 14:49 The simple answer to the 'problem' is just to get your free bet on, going for a fancied horse, if it wins, draw, end of. If it loses also end of. Backing, say a 2/1 chance, assuming it's a true 2/1 chance, you will break even twice, win £100 once, every 3 picks. In theory that is! If anyone sees that as feasible, GL, but I don't think it will work in reality. Lb, I think was I who suggested sticking to the shorties. ========================================================================== Your post K above was just not accurate re posts to thread. You wanted to take the "credit" for something which you were not the first to suggest........ It was not a case re ideas being better.....just the fact that you were appearing to take credit for posting the "idea" first...... Other than that your posts have been "fair" and "reasonable".............but your "mistake" was " Lb, I think was I who suggested sticking to the shorties". |
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LordBoobin and I have always stated stick to shortish prices please read earlier posts.
As for BJTs accusatoin that we the believers (several) fight amongst ourselves is ludicrous. When BJTs offers a power cut to blow the system in a 5 second window, well im not commenting on that. |
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I have bet with nearly all your UK bookmakers. From odds on to 50/1. The result is always the same. The odds don't matter. If you give any impression at all that you are not a complete moron, then they cut you straight off.
So while yes, you like to think that you know how the bookies operate, I can assure you you have no idea. To guarantee something completely out of your control is just screaming desperation. I have bet free bets. I have bet deposit bonuses. The result is always a siht fight to get your money out of them. Tell people different all you like, UK bookies are scum, gutless, shifty operators. Yes most will pay, but they don't make it easy. The best fight I had was after getting a 1500 deposit bonus and needing to turnover 30k with them to be able to withdraw it. Ended up with 15k in the account and limited to 20 dollar bets with about 26k left to turnover. Not only did they make it impossible to get my bonus, but they made it damn hard to get the money out of them. Some will ban you after a week, some after 2 bets. Either way, there is no guarantee what they will do unless you are an absolute mug, in which case they will obviously keep throwing free bets at you to get you to bet as much of your mug money with them as possible. The only thing funnier in this thread than the gooses trying to show how smart they are by being offered free bets is the one trying to charge people to show them how to do it. Stick 30k in your bank, arb through the bookies. You will easily make 10 grand inside a month before losing all accounts. Much more than you will make in 10 years hanging around for free bets.... |
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WTF are you on about BJT. 30K????? If you stick 30K in your account, yeah, of course you're going to seem like somebody they'll want to watch. How many small-timers have £30K to drop with the bookies???
I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about an average person sticking in a couple of hundred, and then making a few £50 bets at short odds - replicating this across several different bookies will allow them to assemble several hundred in profits. As I said on an earlier thread, you might typically end up with the following after five bets and a freebie: Race 1 7/2 Lost £50 Race 2 2/1 Won £100 Race 3 4/1 Lost £50 Race 4 9/5 Lost £50 Race 5 1/1 Won £50 Race 6 (Bonus) 4/1 Lost Free Bet You're trying to tell me the bookies will look at that and mark you out as a shrewdie? Obviously not. That's just the typical account of a typical punter. And the bookies will believe you're going to lose money with them once the free bets are out of the way. I stress, this isn't a system for big punters. It's for newbies on average wages who want to start with a few hundred pretty much guaranteed. |
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I never said to put 30k in your betting account. I said stick 30k in your bank to gamble with. You would need some in BF right? You do know what arbing is I imagine? Heard of it?
Either way, whether you are somebody they need to watch or not, you will still make more than 10 years worth of free bets in a month by doing it. And yes, with a return of 100%, you would certainly be on their radar. They are banning anybody returning more than 90%. And you can't just stick odds up with bets and think it means anything. The relevance isn't on the odds of the horse, it is on the odds the competition are offering. |
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BJT, you are clearly not a newbie but a giant in the betting world and the system is not aimed for you.
Im sure newbies would love to make several hundred pounds practically risk free. If you was a newbie and received a free bet would you> a) use the free bet to punt on something and hope it wins. b) tell the bookie under no circumstances ever to offer you free bets again. c) Utilize the free bet to guarantee profit. |
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Heh? You really haven't understood a word of this, have you... I don't actually know why you're still here. You either aren't interested in reading about this, or lack the brains to understand it.
Of course you could make more (until they closed you down) by arbing £30K. But this system wouldn't be of interest to somebody who already had 300K. It's aimed at people who have a few hundred (that they can't really afford to lose), and are interested in turning that into a few hundred more. I assure you, you wouldn't get closed down for the above bets, if you were a small-timer betting £50 a time. I've been in similar situations myself, and have never had those bookies being the least bit suspicious of me. The above account would be fairly typical of a normal bettor, up until the point at which they started chasing. Sometimes I'm slightly down with the bookies after the first few bets. Sometimes slightly up. It doesn't matter. If you won several in a row, or were showing profits over a number of weeks, they might take notice. Otherwise.. 'And you can't just stick odds up with bets and think it means anything. The relevance isn't on the odds of the horse, it is on the odds the competition are offering.' What?? I'm using the odds as an example of what the bookies are seeing when they decide whether they should be suspicious of you or not. A string of bets on favourites with varying degrees of success won't get you pegged as a shrewdie - not unless you're achieving that over a decent period. All the system requires is that you take random odds at your selected bookie, and match them up as closely as possible to prices on BF. You restrict yourself to ones where the prices match up very closely. You don't need to get prices so good that you're making a profit overall on that specific bet, since you're not arbing as such. (It's the free bets that make you the money - the 'arbing' aspect of it actually loses you a small amount.) |
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That was obviously aimed at BJT, not iprefertolay...
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Oh yeah, and on the third line, I obviously meant to say 30K rather than 300K...
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iprefertolay
29 Oct 13 17:34 Joined: 16 Sep 02 | Topic/replies: 98 | Blogger: iprefertolay's blog BJT, you are clearly not a newbie but a giant in the betting world and the system is not aimed for you. Im sure newbies would love to make several hundred pounds practically risk free. If you was a newbie and received a free bet would you> a) use the free bet to punt on something and hope it wins. Believe it or not this would be in the majority - not everyone is trying to "guarantee " profits b) tell the bookie under no circumstances ever to offer you free bets again. c) Utilize the free bet to guarantee profit. And here i'd be replacing the word guarantee with maximising and in these instances betting on the bigger prices ALSO I WOULDN'T CHARGE FOR THIS SIMPLE SYSTEM FULL STOP. |