Oct 16, 2013 -- 6:09PM, LordBobbin wrote:

Okay.. I did come back, just once..    Long post, but hopefully, even BJT will be convinced...    You're way overthinking this BJT.  It's only a modest money-spinner, so there's no get rich quick idea here. But it is very safe. The chances of something going very wrong are slim indeed. If you're careful, you'll lose very little money even if it does go wrong. I must have played well over 100 of these types of race, trying to get free bet bonuses, and nothing has ever gone wrong.  No total guarantee, but it is very close.If you're leaving everything until the dying seconds before the off, then yeah, an unfortunate power outage could leave you out of pocket. However, you can usually get a decent price 20 or 30 mins before the race, which leaves you plenty of time to get everything back again.    And if the worst happens?     Well, bet with the bookmaker first and make sure they've accepted your bet. Then, just go and lay it back here. That way, if the power goes down before you do the Betfair bit, the most you'll lose is the cost of the original bet. That's unlikely to be more than £50, which is hardly a large sum given that it's the worst-case scenario.  I would say you should try and leave yourself at least 10 minutes. That way, you can check the maths very carefully, and make corrections if you've made a mistake.If the Betfair price has slipped after you place your bet with the bookies, you just have to accept the inferior price. It doesn't generally cost you more than a pound or two. Late scratches can affect it, although the bookies and Betfair usually cancel each other out.As for the tricky requirements...  A number of the bookies do 'Place a Bet and get a Free Bet in return' offers. Those are clearly the easiest, since you only have to lose a small amount of money (say £3 or £4) on the initial bet, and then you've got the free bet to make the profits on.Some of the requirements for these bets are trickier, particularly when it comes to the smaller outlets - they do sometimes ask for some ridiculous turnovers.  It's not always as difficult as it seems to get through these, though.   B365, for instance, runs frequent offers where you have to participate in around 20 races in order to get the full bonus. You can actually go through that number in the space of a couple of days, though. And as long as you're restricting yourself to races when it looks as if the amount you'll lose on each race is relatively small (ideally £2 to £2.50 for each £25 wagered), then you can often lose on every race and still wind up very much in profit. As a rule, I assume I'll make a profit of around half the total bonus - B365's £200 bonus, for instance, would net you £100.  You do have to work out how much you'd be losing per bet, though, and make sure you'll have enough profit left over at the end to more than compensate you for the string of minor losses.I would also say that, if you're getting Best Odds Guaranteed, that can make a massive difference. If you've backed and layed a horse at 3/1, for instance, and it ends up winning at 7/2, the extra profit you'd make on that should pay for the losses on a string of previous races. On the B365 20-race offers, for instance, I've done two lots of those. The first time I ended up in profit over those 20 races - that's over the races themselves, so I also got the full amount of the free bet offer - as a result of the Best Odds Guaranteed offer, and the second time I ended up losing only £5 in total across my 20 bets.  And do remember that you often lose the entire amount at the bookies before you've had to work through the requirements. Break the wagering amount into small bets, if possible. (So if you've got to get through £200, you might work with 20 x £10 bets rather than 4 x £50 bets, for instance, assuming you're very patient.) Over a substantial string of races, you're likely to lose most if not all of it if you're just 'blindly betting' on horses. On four or five races, of course, you could get very lucky and end up making a bit with the bookies.As I say, I've done quite a few of these. If you're careful, give yourself enough time to double and triple check each bet, and either know the maths or have a little program that does it for you (that was my solution!), then it's very unlikely indeed that you'll lose money on them.  The only real risk I can think of is that the bookie refuses to pay you. However, assuming you're going for 2/1 or 3/1 shots, that's unlikely. Most of the time, you'll end up with less with the bookies than you paid in in the first place. If you are in profit with the bookmaker, the profits are likely to be modest, unless you have some real luck with your races....

Pretty sure most have it in their terms and conditions that free bet abuse can also risk your money.

Either way, you haven't convinced me of anything.  The points I have made are because I know what I am talking about, not because I am questioning something.

The point of this thread, is the system always wins, and then it went on to it being guaranteed.  It doesn't always win, and you can't guarantee it.

You are just as much chance getting your account closed like that, as you are arbing.  Much better off throwing 50 grand into your accounts, arb til they close you and move onto the next one.  No reason you couldn't make 10 grand in a month.
Best account that I had for that actually gave me a 1500 deposit bonus.

So next time you plan on giving a lesson to somebody, ask yourself, if there is anybody out there that could possibly have first hand experience in the issues associated with trading and when they come along, rather than make yourself look like a goose.  Maybe there are people out there that have placed more than 100 bets in their life.