The reason why I am selling the system as LordBobbin identified is that i have used all my free bets entitlement(but still use the system to make minimal returns)
The system is ideal for a newcomer and not for a seasoned gambler.

Genuine 2/1 chances win on average once from 3 bets,
10 times from 30 bets, etc, etc. if you want to argue
with that I would like you to explain.
Just as an add on, by backing bigger prices, when laying
it is likely that you would have to lay bigger prices
than those backed, i.e, 5/1 backs would have to be layed
at perhaps 7.0 or bigger, and we haven't mentioned
commission yet, another factor.
Please explain the laws of probability I don't understand.

Please don't patronise me. Any toss of a coin
will be 1/1 heads, 1/1 tails would you argue
with that? Would you back either of them at
bigger than 1/1?

BTW why has no one taken you up on
your offer? 2nd question, why have
you needed to come on here to try
and sell it??

Ken, if you tossed a coin say 100 times you may get a result of 40 tails 60 heads
40 percent tails, 60 percent heads,  differrence 20
If you tossed it a million times the percentage would be very close to 50 percent, yet the numbers between heads and tails would be far greater than 20!!

if someone offered me 5/4 on heads I would refuse...tails never fails

but for an infinite number of tosses the probability of then being even at some point in time is 1

it's not really relevant to the topic.

I'd agree with Ken from a purely value perspective, but isn't the real idea that we should hedge (lay) because it allows us to bet on long-shots, which are the most efficient way to use a free bet?

ie - using a free bet to bet on something at 10-1 is higher EV than using it to bet at 2-1

2 points, first backing a big price with
the freebie, greening up would normally
mean laying your 20/1 at as much as 30,
or at least a deal bigger than 20/1.

Second point, Lex, if you are going to make statements
like you just did, you would be better
not being involved!

I certainly don't ask others to tell
me what to back.

Interesting thread. There's another well known forum where one of the original guys made very significant money using such a system. Search on google, it won't be that difficult to find. For me, too late, alas. Would I have paid for it? Probably not given how heavily this is covered on-line. But would it still work? I'm with Lord Bobbins on this...

JLivermore 21 Oct 13 20:13 Joined: 14 Mar 12 | Topic/replies: 259 | Blogger: JLivermore's blog
but for an infinite number of tosses the probability of then being even at some point in time is 1

And if you have 2 coins and you go through an infinite sequence of randomly selecting one and tossing it, the probability of reaching a state where each of the two coins has landed on heads as often as on tails is still 1.

Interestingly though, if you have 3 coins and you go through an infinite sequence of randomly selecting one and tossing it, the probability of reaching a state where each of the three coins has landed on heads as often as on tails is 0.34. Or is it?

"Interestingly though, if you have 3 coins and you go through an infinite sequence of randomly selecting one and tossing it, the probability of reaching a state where each of the three coins has landed on heads as often as on tails is 0.34. Or is it? Mischief"

Woah!  You blow my mind, man!

Yeah henok, sequentially tossing n coins in the manner described is equivalent to an n-dimensional random walk.
In 1 and 2 dimensions the probability of returning to the origin at some point is 1, in 3 dimensions it is 0.34, see table here.
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/PolyasRandomWalkConstants.html.

not forgetting the idea is to try and bust out of the bookie and win on the exchange

Betting on horses at 12s probably will get you shut down. That was why I suggested using the free bets to make small but guaranteed wins at short odds of 2/1 or so. Over time, you'll make almost as much that way, but you will be pretty much certain to get the money, and won't have to sweat about whether the bookies will pay up.    Clearly, it's best of all if you lose the money at the bookies and make it straight back on BF - no risk of not being paid out then. Even with 12s shots, though, you can't rely on them not winning all of the time.

Just on the possibility of other threads, I seem to remember a poster called Dangermouse became quite famous on gambling forums for doing this type of scheme. I didn't get the idea from him (don't think it's very hard to come up with yourself), but I seem to remember his posts were quite interesting. Not sure you could still do as much of it as he did - as I recall, he carried on getting free bets for several years.

Iprefertolay - basic stuff - so I wouldn't pay or indeed charge people if I advised them myself ( which I have done numerous times over )

Don't quite understand that bit, could you rephrase that?

But that doesn't really answer it at all.  You aren't doing anything at all different except you are exposing more of your bank.
A win ties up a much larger proportion of your bank, and you can't withdraw it until you meet the turnover requirements.  Then 2 in a row?  How big is your bank?

And if you are waiting around for 20 dollar free bets with no turnover requirements, just how poor are you ****s?

And even more so, if you are stalking the forum, trying to drum up business to advise somebody, so you can take 10% of his 20 bucks, how fcuking poor are you?

Don't really need to say any more, than to point out your opinion that "the idea is to bust out of the bookie and win on betfair".  People that could do that wouldn't be browsing the forum ready to hand over 2 bucks for somebody to teach them how to make 20 bucks every few months.

And for the record, there are plenty of 12/1 horses with a greater chance of winning than the 2/1 horse in their race.

'And for the record, there are plenty of 12/1 horses with a greater chance of winning than the 2/1 horse in their race.

BJT...........Could you elaborate a little? are you able to find such a horse regularly?  bold statement unless you had inside information on a regular basis.