Oct 18, 2013 -- 3:34PM, LordBobbin wrote:

I really can't understand why a relatively simple and painless system is causing so much confusion amongst old heads.. BJT - You're just splitting hairs now. I kept on saying 'close to guaranteed'. As I say, provided the wagering requirements aren't too long-winded (which they aren't for the larger companies, like Paddys, William Hill, B365 etc. - you can get a calculator out and work out in advance whether the wagering requirements for any particular bet are going to be too much) then you are almost certain to win. The only things that can stop you from winning otherwise, are the bookies removing your free bet, a powercut hitting at an inopportune moment, or a mistake in your maths. Anyone following my simple guidelines would be almost certain to avoid the first two of those, and the third can be avoided if you know a little maths, or have a calculation program.  I stress, these problems are very very unlikely to occur. And if they don't, you'll make money. Hence, it's almost guaranteed. You keep telling us that it's a scam, but you won't say why it won't work... The remote chance that one of the bookies withdraws your free bet doesn't stop the entire system from working. Do it right, and there's a 90% chance you'll make money. (95% if you have multiple offers available to you.)  Ken - Not sure what your point is there... Your system would be feasible, as long as you've spent very little in order to get the free bets. You can keep betting on 2/1 chances, and you'll probably make the money in the meantime. You could hit a bad run - my way of taking a smaller but (almost!) guaranteed profit with every free bet is more consistent, if a little more complex.  What you do with the free bets themselves, though, isn't particularly important.  The crucial thing is that the punter earns the free bets by losing very small amounts on a string of races in order to get through the wagering requirements. Exactly what they do with those free bets is up to them.

2 simple questions.
Can you 100% guarantee it?
Do you "always" win?


You have answered both, to the negative, so not sure of your long winded replies.

The scam isn't in taking free bets from bookies, it is you guys trying then take those free bets from others (or at least a portion of them) guaranteeing a 100% proven never lose system.

The reality is, all you will tell them, is what I say right now.

Deposit money with a bookie.  Use the free bet, and don't bet anything else ever again.

Done.

Save your money folks, that is all that is on offer.

Oct 19, 2013 -- 3:17PM, LordBobbin wrote:

I apologise profusely BJT. You are, of course, completely right.   My post was aimed primarily at easing in punters who were relatively new and inexperienced (obviously not aimed at true colossi of the betting world, like yourself or Zeljko Ranogajec) with a method that would give them a 95% chance of converting a load of free bets into susbtantial profits - probably in the region of several hundred.  As you have pointed out, though, the system that I had described as **almost** guaranteed, is only 95% successful, rather than 100%. As should be very clear, this 5% gap takes an otherwise very good system and turns it into a total no-hoper. Clearly, I must be the disgraceful scammer that you have described me as, and that's revealed by the way in which I have detailed the system here free of charge.I prostrate myself before you, and give you my most heartfelt regrets that I tried to offer some helpful advice. I see that that was totally utterly unforgivably wrong of me. I'm preparing the whip and hairshirt right now. I'm very relieved to see that the forces of mean-spirited petty points scoring have once more overwhelmed a thread on here. I understand that that is exactly what the Betfair Community is there for, and it's right that those who believe otherwise should be stamped out by pretentious little pr!cks who appreciate how important it is to take one disagreement over a tiny point and use it to slag off an otherwise perfectly good post ad infinitum.I hope you feel proud to have scored such an important victory. You've now become a man, my son.  Now run along. I hear your momma needs you to make her her oatmeal.

The issue you have here, is you have been trying to explain it to me.  Nobody else.  You have been responding to me.  I asked you 2 questions.  You felt the need to try to explain it to me over and over and over and over.

Not to mention, I asked you those questions, after you hounded me with your bullsiht.

I responded to the OP, not you.  I then quoted the OP, not you.  Each time, you tried to give me an explanation, even though I spelt it out exactly what he was doing before it was even stated.
The only thing I said to you, that your "expected" random 8/1 winner was a load of crap.


If you wish to go through your history here:

This is my opening post on this thread:
BJT • October 11, 2013 2:58 AM BST
Some of you at least show a little intelligence, but the rest?

What he wants to do, is show you to new bookies who give new customer bonuses.  He then wants to take some of your bonus, and tell you to arb.
The initial few hundred easy money is the bonus, then the small outlay is because the bookies have throttled the account.

Not sure about the fear of making money though.  If you had 50k to spend, and never had an account there is no reason you couldn't get up around 15-20k in a month in profits.  Of course, that would be about it as you would have near gone through all bookmakers by then, but still not a bad return.

Now why the fcuk, would I want to pay 30% for somebody to simply take my deposit bonus?


I then made this comment:
BJT • October 15, 2013 12:59 AM BST
Apart from that, there is no such thing as a system that always wins.  Nobody in their right mind would guarantee it.

To which you felt the need to try to explain to me how it works, by going through the facts that it doesn't always win, and you can't guarantee it, even though I wasn't fcuking talking to you now was I, I was talking to the OP.


I ignore that, and then reply, once again, to the OP.
BJT • October 16, 2013 3:33 AM BST
Oct 15, 2013 -- 5:44PM, iprefertolay wrote:

As LordBobbin correctly states the system is garanteed although human error by the user must be avoided.Secondly backing at shortish prices alarm bells wont alert the bookie,however when a price is clearly out of line (known as palpable error) although rare these prices must also be avoided.The due a win scenario is not strictly true,how many roulette players have been bust by fifteen or more consequtive reds for example.The house and the bookies know a long losing will occur sooner or later.

How in fcuk can you guarantee it?

Can you guarantee the power won't go out mid trade?  Betfair won't go down?  Internet won't cut out?  Price disappears?  Scratched runners with out of line reduction factors?

Reality is, you need for most bonuses at least, to turnover deposit and bonus a certain number of times.  So once you have qualified, claimed and bet your bonus, you can't get your money back without going through the arb process a certain number of times.  Each time you do, you open yourself up to any number of things that can occur mid trade.

Guarantee?  Once you have been betting longer than a week, I doubt you will come out with anything so ridiculous again.  Until then, welcome to the world of gambling.

You can see this, by me fcuking quoting him before my reply.

To which, YOU decided to reply again, with some long winded explanation, trying to help me understand what was happening.
LordBobbin • October 16, 2013 6:09 PM BST
Okay.. I did come back, just once..    Long post, but hopefully, even BJT will be convinced...    You're way overthinking this BJT.  It's only a modest money-spinner, so there's no get rich quick idea here. But it is very safe. The chances of something going very wrong are slim indeed. If you're careful, you'll lose very little money even if it does go wrong. I must have played well over 100 of these types of race, trying to get free bet bonuses, and nothing has ever gone wrong.  No total guarantee, but it is very close.

If you're leaving everything until the dying seconds before the off, then yeah, an unfortunate power outage could leave you out of pocket. However, you can usually get a decent price 20 or 30 mins before the race, which leaves you plenty of time to get everything back again.    And if the worst happens?     Well, bet with the bookmaker first and make sure they've accepted your bet. Then, just go and lay it back here. That way, if the power goes down before you do the Betfair bit, the most you'll lose is the cost of the original bet. That's unlikely to be more than £50, which is hardly a large sum given that it's the worst-case scenario.  I would say you should try and leave yourself at least 10 minutes. That way, you can check the maths very carefully, and make corrections if you've made a mistake.

If the Betfair price has slipped after you place your bet with the bookies, you just have to accept the inferior price. It doesn't generally cost you more than a pound or two. Late scratches can affect it, although the bookies and Betfair usually cancel each other out.



As for the tricky requirements...  A number of the bookies do 'Place a Bet and get a Free Bet in return' offers. Those are clearly the easiest, since you only have to lose a small amount of money (say £3 or £4) on the initial bet, and then you've got the free bet to make the profits on.

Some of the requirements for these bets are trickier, particularly when it comes to the smaller outlets - they do sometimes ask for some ridiculous turnovers.  It's not always as difficult as it seems to get through these, though.   B365, for instance, runs frequent offers where you have to participate in around 20 races in order to get the full bonus. You can actually go through that number in the space of a couple of days, though. And as long as you're restricting yourself to races when it looks as if the amount you'll lose on each race is relatively small (ideally £2 to £2.50 for each £25 wagered), then you can often lose on every race and still wind up very much in profit. As a rule, I assume I'll make a profit of around half the total bonus - B365's £200 bonus, for instance, would net you £100.  You do have to work out how much you'd be losing per bet, though, and make sure you'll have enough profit left over at the end to more than compensate you for the string of minor losses.

I would also say that, if you're getting Best Odds Guaranteed, that can make a massive difference. If you've backed and layed a horse at 3/1, for instance, and it ends up winning at 7/2, the extra profit you'd make on that should pay for the losses on a string of previous races. On the B365 20-race offers, for instance, I've done two lots of those. The first time I ended up in profit over those 20 races - that's over the races themselves, so I also got the full amount of the free bet offer - as a result of the Best Odds Guaranteed offer, and the second time I ended up losing only £5 in total across my 20 bets. 

And do remember that you often lose the entire amount at the bookies before you've had to work through the requirements. Break the wagering amount into small bets, if possible. (So if you've got to get through £200, you might work with 20 x £10 bets rather than 4 x £50 bets, for instance, assuming you're very patient.) Over a substantial string of races, you're likely to lose most if not all of it if you're just 'blindly betting' on horses. On four or five races, of course, you could get very lucky and end up making a bit with the bookies.




As I say, I've done quite a few of these. If you're careful, give yourself enough time to double and triple check each bet, and either know the maths or have a little program that does it for you (that was my solution!), then it's very unlikely indeed that you'll lose money on them.  The only real risk I can think of is that the bookie refuses to pay you. However, assuming you're going for 2/1 or 3/1 shots, that's unlikely. Most of the time, you'll end up with less with the bookies than you paid in in the first place. If you are in profit with the bookmaker, the profits are likely to be modest, unless you have some real luck with your races....


I didn't need your explanation, I was asking the guy, the OP, iprefertolay, the one that said it was guaranteed and never loses, how he could possibly make such statements, given all that can go wrong and cost money.

You wanted to stick your nose in. You wanted to try to show your superiority by butting in to show how smart you are and how stupid I am for not understanding something in your mind.
That is the reality of this thread.  You being too thick and arrogant to understand your place.


So keep hanging around waiting for the next email offering you a free bet.  You can eat that week.  Good luck.