General Betting
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THE PREMIUM CHARGE MUST BE SCRAPPED
THE PREMIUM CHARGE MUST BE SCRAPPED
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Clydebank, if the backers are all concentrated to the one auction the cross matcher takes the place of the market maker. Not that the auction idea prevents someone from making a full book. If anything the opposite and easier. I also disagree that the only realistic way to get matched on outsiders is via a market maker laying a book. I'd be quite willing to lay outsiders in the way rcng mentioned but I wouldn't be looking for a full book.
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Feck, you would be happy to lay one unraced 2yo in the field to lose £40k to win £3k?
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No. When I've nothing to go on I let the market decide the odds and divide the remaining book percent between the ones I have an opinion on. I don't get your point anyway.
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My point is the more accurately people can price things up the more money that will be bet. People are less likely to bet if they do not know what price/how much they will get on.
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As far as early horses are concerned that would currently be near zero then.
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rcing, the prob. w/ dutch-laying the field is the same as w/ trying to make a book w/ an acceptable OR. You find y/s on the wrong side of an information edge, getting filled in on something that will only shorten and being left high and dry on most of the field.
Shorteners don't matter so much if you get a good spread of business, but that's entirely dependent on liquidity; and markets don't form when it's evident some participants know more than others. If you can get on at bookies, you don't need markets to form--in fact, insofar as market formation tends to be the same thing as price-finding, you'd rather they didn't / hadn't. I don't see much difference between the person who's a semi-insider, who's heard gossip that a 3yo has come to hand e.g. or that a horse was in season lto and didn't in fact mind the ground, and someone who's put in the hours w/ the form. Both people want to get on as much as poss. (in the context of rationally managing their bank) at an out-of-line price. The advantage of feckfair over bf is that it will prevent price takers losing to price-insensitive insiders. Otherwise both have massive disadvantages compared to anywhere w/ a large population of bettors w/ no ideas about correct prices (and weak price-finding mechanisms). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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frog, I'm much happier one-off laying outside the front four in the market, just for the reason that market moves are more dependent on actual chances and the likelihood is greater I'll be able to smooth and cash in my expectation.
My edge (such as it is) is in pricing, not anything technical, so I don't want to be eroded by other people's technical or trading edge. But this is for smaller sums of money than 4 figs. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Surely with the arrival of laddys,and the complete lack of money in all football markets,betfair will at last do something,last night 9 secs on the chelsea game what a joke.no one can tell me it needs 9 secs.it drives punters away,for gods sake come to your sences and revert back to 5,and scrap the pc tax,GET SOME DOUGH BACK INTO THE MARKETS.
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Coner ,crawl back under your rock
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OACHY COUCHY. As exspected your terrific brainless reply IS ON PAR TO THE REST OF YOUR SH-TE POSTS
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interesting email
Dear On November 13 we will be bringing you a trial which will remove the Premium Charge you’re normally asked to pay from a number of markets. Initially this offer will cover all football markets in the Spanish Primera División and all Rugby Union markets in all countries. You can take advantage of this trial for three months on football, and until June for rugby. If the trial proves successful, you might well see it extended; in terms of the range of sports, the markets included, and the length of the offer. You don't need to do anything to take part in this trial; you will have the Premium Charge automatically removed. If you would like your betting on these markets to continue to be included for the purposes of Premium Charge, please contact your account manager (or the help desk), and you will be opted out of the trial. Full terms of this trial and some FAQs can be found below. The Betfair Team | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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sorry, missed the important bit
Terms of the trial • All markets in the Spanish Primera División will be exempted from Premium Charge. • All Rugby Union markets in all countries will be exempted from Premium Charge. • The trial will apply to bets on markets in which all runners are fully settled between November 13 2013 and February 1 2014 for the football, and November 13 2013 until June 1 2014 for rugby. • Winnings, losses, commission paid and commission generated on these markets during the trial will be removed entirely from your PC calculation. • Activity on these markets from before the trial will continue to be included in your lifetime figures. • Markets bet on during the trial will continue to contribute to your market count. • If you would like to opt out of the trial, you may do so at any time in the trial and your exchange activity for the rest of the trial will be included in your Premium Charge calculation. • Once opted out, you cannot opt back in to the trial and any betting activity before opting out will not be subsequently included in your Premium Charge calculation. • You may opt out separately for Rugby Union and/or Primera División. • Unfortunately, the trial is not open to customers registered in Australia or New Zealand. • Betfair reserves the right to opt out any individual or end this trial at any time. FAQs Will charges or losses from Primera División / Rugby Union reduce my Premium Charge bill? No, the activity will be removed entirely. At the end of the trial, will any activity from these markets count be reinstated the lifetime position? No, the activity, when removed, will never appear again in your Premium Charge statement. Will this trial be extended to other sports / leagues? We will be regularly reviewing the results and may decide to extend the trial or add in additional sports/leagues. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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What a joke of a company.
Still doesn't address the flaws in the pricing structure. I believe it will be a case of too little too late. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Well, it´s a beginning. I guess we will have more markets covered soon.
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Everyone's already gone, markets are bare.
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You're not allowed to win or else we'll charge you 22.5%. Oh but you can bet on spanish football and rugby. Who the **** bets on rugby anyway?
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Have I got this right? If you win £1000 on tennis and lose £1000 on rugby union and Spanish football, you're still liable for the FULL PC on your £1000 tennis profit even though it's only been a level week?
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yup. They know how to look after their so called "VIPs".
So PC payers are motivated NOT to take any risks on these markets then. Makes you wonder how it took them a month to come up with this. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Say it ain't so, Mate?!? How ****ing stupid are these people?!?
What purpose does this actually serve then?!? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I think it's clear PC will never go and it will be a case of profit first and sportsbook first for betfair to the detriment of the exchange. I'm moving on from full time now bye guys have fun.
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The point is that this could actually INCREASE BF's PC rake and have the opposite effect that they claim they're trying to have.
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so as a trial , betfair want customers to improve liquidity in these markets and if it is successful what will happen ?
will PC not be paid on rugby and spanish football if successful because liquidity has improved ? then why is there a PC on markets that already have good liquidity ? if they will re-introduce PC in these markets once liquidity picks up , what incentive is there for people to help improve liquidity spending lots of time on these markets for possibly no profit ? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Don't think many will be enticed by the possibility of premium charge on even or losing weeks. Looks like max premium charge has just gone from 60% to ∞%.
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The exiled mugged will be returning in their droves.
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Sadblokes quaking in their boots at this aggresive move from Betfair
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so betfairs latest 'gift' to their customers is to make it possible to pay PC on a losing week, and make the charging structure even more complex
genius. sheer genius. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Presumably uptake on this will be very limited due to the downside of losing (if someone was THAT confident of winning, they'd be doing it already PC or not), which surely means BF will see no real difference from removing the PC from these markets. So some bod from the pricing team will be able to report to the powers-that-be that scrapping the PC makes no difference and we'll be stuck with it til the end of time. Hurrah!
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The more I sit and think about this, the more it annoys me.
Have the decision makers just missed the obvious (again), or were they just hoping that no-one would notice? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Latalomne,
Whilst it's possible that, under the terms of the trial over its duration, a PC Customer could in theory pay a greater amount in PC and commission than they would have otherwise paid based on the same betting activity, it's unlikely that would occur in many cases. I agree that in any given week a PC Payer may, using your example, win £1000 on the standard Tennis markets and lose £1000 on the PC exempt Rugby Union markets and thus may be subject to PC that they wouldn't have otherwise paid. However, if a PC Customer expected their betting activity within the PC exempt markets to be such that their PC Rate*Gross Profit made within those markets would be less than the commission generated from the betting activity within the exempt markets over the entire trial period, I would expect them to opt out of the trial. Thus the trial would be of no direct disadvantage to them. If a PC Payer expected their betting activity within the PC exempt markets to be such that their PC Rate*Gross Profit made within those markets would be greater than the commission generated from the betting activity within the exempt markets over the entire trial period, I would expect them not to opt out of the trial. The trial would be likely to be advantageous to them. If you were offered 2.1 on a selection that would be accurately price at 2, would you take advantage or instead fret about the possibility of a loss and the fact that customers in restricted territories may be unable to avail themselves of the same opportunity? You and others may well have valid concerns about the trial but I don't believe that many of the concerns expressed thus far have much validity. Betfair could certainly introduce more far more favourable PC reduction trials but that doesn't mean the proposed trial is without merit. Example: Assume a UK resident Standard Rate PC Customer with, for convenience, a constant discount rate of 0%: Presume that he (the PC Customer) has a 100% strike rate in standard base rate (SBR) Tennis markets and makes a gross profit of £1000 each and every week in those markets. Presume also a gross profit to loss ratio of 5:4 in the potentially PC exempt SBR Rugby Union markets. For convenience assume that the latter is of the form of 4 weeks in which he loses £1000/week with no wins followed by 5 weeks in which he wins £1000/week with no losses. Note that the 5:4 win to loss ratio was deliberately chosen as being only slightly higher than the minimum ratio at which a customer would be subject to the PC. The higher the ratio the greater the probable benefit of the trial. Presume that his Lifetime Total Charges equal exactly 20% of his Lifetime Gross Profit immediately prior to the start of the trial. Further presume that he has bet in more than 250 markets, his PC allowance has been used in full, he has made a Lifetime Net Profit of substantially less than £250,000, none of his betting results in a 'big win' exemption and the only charges that he pays are PC and commission. Results:
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With a rebate, they abolish the pc by the back door. Without it, they introduce a charge over a period in which some customers will have lost.
The reason the scheme is a non-starter is because the nature of the charge itself makes changes unworkable. I don't see what the problem wd be w/ a levy on withdrawals for people winning over a certain rate. That way, no one siphons money out of the system. But the rational thing to do is surely just to prevent excess winning through a raft of sport-specific measures and dump the pc. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I think it might be a better idea for Betfair to suspend the premium charge on all markets for a trail period -- say 3 months -- and see what happens. The possibility of some people having a bad losing week and having to pay premium charge as well is really something they should try to avoid. It won't go down very well.
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mmm. well, I'm going to make myself unpopular by not completely ridiculing but here goes. this still doesn't really address the problem of people ending up paying PC on overall losing weeks, but it does make slightly more sense than the last fiasco.
basically, opting out is the equivalent of being allowed to open a non-linked account (minus allowance) which can only play specific markets they want to bolster. which is better than nothing, despite the losing weeks anomaly it throws up. (there's equally the mirror-image possibility that you'd have a losing week on your PC liable markets and a winning week on the others, in which case you effectively get a delayed rebate for an overall winning week.) but imo what they should be trialling is a periodic rolling allowance targeted at smaller players whose past activity has got them into the PC vortex, or who are falling off the PC2 cliff. taxing people on small incomes at 40-60% is just stupid: that's the first thing to sort out. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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After a decade of taking they probably had to look up 'give' in the dictionary.
But, like a little lad drawing his first picture, an attempt has been made. Some praise, whether merited or not, should be given | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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if nothing else, this and the previous aborted attempt are at least a tacit admission that there is a connection between PC and liquidity, and it is a problem.
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no user wants to pay PC
betfair do not want to scrap it because of the income the get from it . so where is the middle ground ? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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if nothing else, this and the previous aborted attempt are at least a tacit admission that there is a connection between PC and liquidity
That's what worries me. They still don't get what the problem really is. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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this is a weird one for me as all my net profits in 2013 come via Spanish football - i have shown no profit over Racing,Tennis and English premier league this year
i have also built up a p/c buffer owing to a disastrous H/Racing year on here - so will any profits from Spanish football in this trial be p/c deducted at later date,say next year ? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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It's certainly positive they are trying to look at ways to improve exchange liquidity. I daresay there are people looking at this that are burdened with a decision they didn't make, but at least they are looking. The problem they have is that short of scrapping PC (which I don't think will happen) it's a very difficult thing to do- once they have meddled with the market it's hard to solve the problem with more meddling.
I don't think they can spot-fix things by targeting certain markets like this, any solution or trial needs to be site-wide and ideally make things simpler not more complex. I guess realistically useful options would include reasonable weekly allowances, sliding scales or even a trial roll-back of higher rate PC to 20% to see if that stimulates things. But it's definitely good they are looking at pricing vs liquidity seriously before it's too late: there will always be ways to monetise a liquid exchange, but it'd be much more difficult to revive a dead one. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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no coach, to me it seems they're saying anything that happens in spanish football during the period of the trial will be treated as if it had never happened, whether that works for or against you.
of course, unless they require separate wallets this does also create the situation where they may find they've effectively let people bet on credit. say you have a hundred pounds in your account. you win another hundred on an epl game, then lose the full 2 hundred on an evening la liga match. you now have a zero balance and a 20-60 pound bill coming on wednesday. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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betfair took the fair out of betfair with PC2.
a) who takes more money out of the eco system, and generates a greater need for advertising: someone winning a million per year on 41% charges, or someone winning £5000 on 60% charges? taking the annual allowance out the calculation was detrimental to those who win relatively smaller amounts b) who is likely to take more out of the eco system next week someone who joined 2 years ago and has won £250,000, or someone who has won £250,000 over the last 13 years? The lifetime aggregate is penalises long standing clients. |