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Feck (who he is not) is not anti exchange, he is just anti courtsiders, trading, using market prices for book making, trapping and insiders. Feck (who he is not) ideologically believes in the concept, but is frustrated by the reality.
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courtsiders trapping and insiders sound about right to sort it out with due to the top 0.2 % of winners mugging the punters
trading, betting etc that what the exchanges for and that can be hard work and the lifetime thing dont help and it can cover the range of 2.5% of winners and on pc |
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Why is in running on horses an abomination? It's fairer than ever since the speeding up of Betfair video, something they disappointingly don't advertise enough.
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The swings within a single game of tennis can be enormous - obviously greater the closer the game is to the conclusion of the match. The idea of laying the server at the start of a service game, seeing them go 0-40 and then holding would be just devastating if you could only 'play' in between games!
Really? You make it sound worse than cancer. It's these constant odds changing points that makes competition for the house "edge" so fierce. OK, I'm not sure what you've described in the first of your three replies above equates to 'clock beating', but here's what I would have said given how you explained it the first time around: Tennis simply moves too quickly to allow the clock-beating idea to work. Seriously, just take five minutes at some point and watch a game - not a match - alongside the market. It just would not work, and there's fresh money constantly hitting the screen, even within points - really within points, not just when the point ends on the fast pic player's feed. It's all automated. All the tennis "experts" have to do is click on the player who wins each point. |
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Whether you like it or not, it's on these swings that everyone can make a buck. THAT is the appeal of BF in-running markets - to all comers. 1000 shots can and do win.
I still don't see how putting in a back bet at the odds the player is going to be if they lose the next point is beating the clock? Since it's unlikely you will get matched (* unless cross-matching is off, in which case it becomes a definite possibility) unless they do indeed lose that point, surely that just means you're backing at market price? (ie not hoovering up prices that are already available) |
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Whether you like it or not, it's on these swings that everyone can make a buck. THAT is the appeal of BF in-running markets - to all comers. 1000 shots can and do win.
You can make a buck but generally not without the house "edge". Yes, that's the appeal but once the mugs realise they're being fleeced they're gone for good, whether you like or not. I still don't see how putting in a back bet at the odds the player is going to be if they lose the next point is beating the clock? Since it's unlikely you will get matched (* unless cross-matching is off, in which case it becomes a definite possibility) unless they do indeed lose that point, surely that just means you're backing at market price? (ie not hoovering up prices that are already available) That example was about getting to the front of the queue. If you then did the £2 test before the next point started and your offer was at the front of the queue you then, at the appropriate moment, fire in smaller bets at lower odds (checking after each how much you have left at the front of the queue). These smaller bets are then matched against your own unless you cancel your bigger bet in which case the smaller ones get through and hoover the bets behind your cancelled bet. |
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It's all automated. All the tennis "experts" have to do is click on the player who wins each point.
I can agree with you, that you have no idea how tennis markets work. |
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ann witt , i always wondered why people that complain that traders follow/jump in front of the money , why it is that they don't use this to there advantage to make the price of a horse move to a more favourable price for them . if say a horse is 10.5 and you want to back it , and traders follow the money , why not just put up alot of money on the lay side to try and get the horse to drift ?
i am not a trader btw . i will back/lay pre race and bet IR on horses only . |
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The discussion about tennis brings us back to the point about abolishing the pc. Why has pc not affected tennis/cricket liquidity? As bot suggested earlier, if all sorts of pc players are leaving then a bigger share of the pie is there for those who chose not to. Is that what's happened in tennis/cricket? What about the other markets? Is the house "edge" not big enough for the rest of you or is it just that there's fewer and fewer mugs on the site? What has happened to all you "you must evolve to the ever changing market conditions" and "churn to avoid pc" merchants?
Bury your head in the sand if you must but abolishing the pc for anyone other than REAL liquidity providers (i.e. positional players) will not stop the rot. In fact, if anything, it will make it worse. Why should positional players pay multiple times what parasites do. Let's all become parasites, pay next to nothing and get betfair over and done with as soon as possible. |
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ann witt , i always wondered why people that complain that traders follow/jump in front of the money , why it is that they don't use this to there advantage to make the price of a horse move to a more favourable price for them . if say a horse is 10.5 and you want to back it , and traders follow the money , why not just put up alot of money on the lay side to try and get the horse to drift ?
rcng, I think there's very few traders in early horse markets (there's hardly any non-traders either right enough) and those that are there are mainly odds based. The interface deters anyone from putting up decent money as the offer inevitably ends up as a book end. I would think putting up a large lay of what you (& probably every horse racing shrewdie on the site) want to back because it's good value would be suicidal. |
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Feck (who you are not), as I have said, the fast pic boys ARE the problem - the problem that the rest of us are bearing in more than one way (PC and the ensuing downward spiral of the exchange). I have already stated what I think needs to happen. I do not believe BF are doing enough to 'tax' these individuals and I do not believe the proceeds that BF are receiving in PC from these people are being reinvested in the necessary manner.
I still see the definition of 'liquidity providers' very differently to you, too. The REAL liquidity providers are those that stick a book up. I'm afraid I'm not even going to bother to try to explain the IR tennis situation. Just watch a market. |
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I can agree with you, that you have no idea how tennis markets work.
That's not what bayes told me. I obviously know enough to make you concerned enough to attempt to ridicule me. I'm not a great admirer of the human race and when I see so many people making big money out of something the one thing I'd be fairly sure of is that the explanation for it would be a lot simpler than they are. |
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I do not believe BF are doing enough to 'tax' these individuals and I do not believe the proceeds that BF are receiving in PC from these people are being reinvested in the necessary manner.
I mainly agree with that but short of admitting the "edge" is too big, taxing them at 80% and sharing the tax out among their victims in proportion to their losses what do you do to stop the exodus of the fleeced? Going by some of your other posts it seems to me you're wanting your cake and to eat it. |
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Feck-you're just repeating thing you've said so many times before in the past.
I think we all get the message--you're a saint and everyone else is a parasite. |
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lots of self interested posts on here lately
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I still see the definition of 'liquidity providers' very differently to you, too. The REAL liquidity providers are those that stick a book up.
On feckfair guide prices, cross matching and attempting to bring the positional players together at the same time makes your booker redundant but there would be nothing to stop him attempting to ply his trade on feckfair. |
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BTW Lat. Again I'd like to thank you for making a reasoned argument. As you can see, the rest of the opposition is of the torched villager variety.
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Well, I'm sure it wouldn't take a lot for BF to flash a message up on entering a market advising that the market is in-play and that those taking part should be aware that some people may have access to close-to-real-time pictures which may exceed the bet placement delay. At the moment, it's just hidden in the market information and most people probably have never looked at it. If, after seeing that, you have a bet and lose, you can't really blame anybody else.... You can only help people so much. In terms or reducing the delay, I don't think that is going to be practical since the books now have their own IR offerings....
At the moment, the markets I've spent most of the last two years playing are virtually dead, so yes, there is a degree of self interest in my posts. They need reinvigorating somehow, and it is reassuring to know that BF are looking at ways to do so (failed rugby union PC 'deal' being the evidence for that). I just don't see how I, as a market maker, in terms of my 'drain' on the exchange, can be looked upon in the same way as those with enormous time advantages (NB I'm *only* paying 40%+ the difference between commission paid and commission generated on my winnings). |
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The traders think the fast pics are the problem, the fast pics think the bots are the problem, everyone thinks the traders are the problem... it's like a monty python sketch.
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The problem is the victims are leaving. They aren't getting the impression they're getting a better run for their money on here. Either ensure they are or make arrangements for another funeral. One thing's for sure, giving their tormentors a better deal won't solve anything.
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Ann, as an opinion player I wd want to retain the option of smoothing returns by trading prices.
More than that, I want to be able to bet at out-of-line prices i.e. prices when my judgment edge on average gives me an edge on the market. I don't really mind when this is, though it's plausible it's far from the off, rather than bang on the off. Ideally, I'll try to get on at Pricewise box prices, with offers left up. For my size requirements and number / reliability of placers, this is OK. If I have more time, I'll make a partial book, but this begins a day before and 70%+ of the volume is on the lay side. |
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But they're not going to get a better run for their money with the books IR either because the books are pricing according to the same pics that the quick pics crew are using.
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The only difference is that the books take down their offers between points.
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askari, on feckfair you'd obtain a price on an early auction and if it shortened lay at a later auction.
Lat, 1.5 wrongs don't make a right. Maybe if betfair educated their customers to the dishonesty of their markets people would say at least they're honest. I (who am not Feck) will now withdraw from this thread and allow you all peace to get back into "give us muggers a free lunch and the mugged will come back in their droves" mode. After all, you've all got a funeral to prepare for. |
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i pay PC , i bet before the off , i bet in-running using RUK on sky and betfair live video .
why am i a mugger in your eyes ann witt ? |
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Me too rcing - RUK and Live video and 50% PC payer - half Witt is clueless to what is really going on IMO
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watch tennis often enough and you'll know from watching the odds who has won the point that has yet to be won on tv, courtsiders are the fastest scoreboard service
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There's an element of truth to what annwitt says and tbh if what he said made no sense at all it wouldn't wind people up.
If the experience punters have on here isn't what they were expecting they'll likely leave. It was a site that was more likely to draw people with greater expectations of winning than a normal bookie. That was recognised on here before the PC came into force by the majority of people here. There are greater barriers to entry for punters than there were before, more automated software, more clued up punters, more professional hovering. None of it helps. Where I fundamentally disagree with annwitt is who has more effect on people leaving. If we exclude fast picture automated users the sharp straight gambler is going to cause more people to leave than either the trader or the market maker. He often matches recreational gamblers directly, and indirectly through market makers, but is also instrumental in why many markets don't form and why many have little liquidity. If he generally takes the best prices, he leaves the recreational punters with worse ones. Not to mention I think a majority of people combine betting, trading and market making, so distinguishing between all three is partly pointless. It was also widely recognised and agreed years ago before the PC charge that Betfair had a natural monopoly and would want to exploit that in the form of higher charges at some point in the future. Either the PC has been a resounding failure or Betfair was destined, even without it, to lose significant ground to its biggest rivals. To argue it has been a success you would have to argue that Betfair would have lost even more ground to its rivals than it has. That's the bottom line. Also Betfair has figures that we have no idea about. Based on those figures the BoD priced it's shares at £13 three years ago. Now they are £10 and this is despite a booming sector and a general increase in the FTSE. This would indicate the charge hasn't worked as they would've hoped Thing is by scrapping it, it doesn't put the company back in the position, it would've been without it. Not even close. |
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i agree that new punters need to feel that they have a chance to succeed on betfair
the problem is, the idea that "if you dare to succeed we'll charge you 20-60%" gives out totally the opposite message doesn't it even losing punters want to dream that they could be a winner one day |
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and one of the problems about discussing this on here is that it always seems to boil down to
a bunch of sharks all shouting at each other 'my liquidity is more important to betfair than your liquidity' (how convenient) |
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and yes betfair has data we don't know about... but that does not mean they are definitely interpreting these figures well or using them effectively
their flatlining revenue while other competing gambling firms have rocketed, their share price suffering after the IPO, fiascos like the rugby premium charge rebate - these things suggest that betfair might have the data, but not much of a clue what to do with that data |
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There is only one real question, "are there positive steps which can be taken which would benefit both BF, and BF customers". The answer is probably yes.
There is no excuse for BF, a 21st century company, having a far weaker website than WH. Maybe BF has become too unwieldy, when it should still be the punky new upstart. There is no excuse for BF having such miserable adverts for the last few years. There is no excuse for BF not harnessing twitter and social media effectively. There have been many memorable bookmaking stunts in recent years, none of them have been from BF. After this, BF has the data which bot talked about. Having looked at and seen the old data, he said it made him realise he knew far less about the ecosystem than he actually thought. They will have data which accurately analyses the impact of PC, and they may go in to work tomorrow morning in Hammersmith and have a good old chuckle at this thread. They may on the other hand believe they have a big problem on the horizon, and they are looking for answers, and taking some of the positive stuff on this thread as at least some positive food for thought. When was the last time anyone can remember BF being successively innovative? (What the hell was LMAX anyway?) The things that stand out are stuff like hiding the 3 million account details which were lost, and the warnings from analysts in the city saying BF had irregular payments to its top team (£11m for David Yu,....). To make an impact and get BF to change towards doing something positive for us it has to be something which helps both them and BF customers. Scrapping the PC, as Clydebank highlights, may make them worse off, and the PC may have actually been a sticking plaster, as the exchange market had already perhaps peaked. Maybe the PC has ended up boosting BF heavily from where it would have been without it. |
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/8760914/Pirc-urges-Betfair-investors-to-vote-against-pay-rises-for-chief-David-Yu-and-finance-director-Stephen-Morana.html
Pirc urges Betfair investors to vote against pay rises for chief David Yu and finance director Stephen Morana Shareholder advisory group Pirc is urging investors to vote against the remuneration report of Betfair, the betting exchange that awarded its directors hefty pay rises despite their presiding over a ruinous float. Tbh, float after float were busted games of catch the melon, comparing BF to Zynga and others' collapses it comes off reasonably favourably only losing half its value from zenith to nadir. |
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ALTHOUGH THE CHARGES ARE GROSSLY UNFAIR I don't agree the premium charge would discourage anyone from trying to make a living on here -that's nonsense and everyone knows it's nonsense ,what it could do however is to drive away those that already make a living .
If you earn minimum wage working in a chicken factory and paying something like 20% plus in stoppages as well as travel expenses ,the idea of a 20% charge wouldn't exactly stop the would be full timer in their tracks. When you make a living on here there are enough barriers without additional charges -the premium charge should be at the end of every financial year -and rebates should be allowed too. Weekly payments are taking the p1ss . When the straw breaks there are alternatives . Employment,Self employment . Exchange gambling sites do not hold the monopoly on earning a living . |
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I'd have a running total on the BF homepage of the amount won by winners. Let it go up in close to real time. It would be the sum of all the winning accounts.
"BF, the site where our winners have taken out £217,534,143.50 in winnings etcetera, going up on a daily basis. "Our winners have won £217m so far, bet now on BF and you too could join them". Most people have no clue about the size of the winners on BF, and publicising that a few people have become fantastically rich through using BF can only do BF good. People don't necessarily mind if they don't become betting bourgeoisie, all they definitely do want is a fair run for their money and think that, well, it could be them too. |
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i think most people know if they have the ability to win after a very short time of here ,it's not like buying a lottery ticket .
most gamble for the chance to enjoy the one off win and the buzz this brings ,very few 'gamblers' look at gambling as a means to earn a living |
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I've always felt that as a P2P gambling site Betfair should be more alligned to poker sites than other bookies - and poker sites don't charge the successful players more, they use them for publicity because they appreciate that the inspiration of success stories is what brings in the new players, rather than scaring them off.
Betfair IS a place where someone, even now, could make good money by good gambling, just like any poker site. THAT is it's key selling point. Is that message out there, though? |
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Coachbuster, there's no harm in shouting loud and clear from the rooftops that you can make a living from BF, (even though that will prove elusive for all but a very few), compared to other companies where if you start winning they tell you to ann witt off.
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Instead of everyone on different commission rates, 2% to 5% and then pc, why not put the fair back into Betfair and put everyone on the same charge like 0.3% commission on each winning transaction. Then Betfair would could compete with the likes of Pinnacle and the best prices on oddschecker. Turnover would rocket.
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