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The 'How much can I lose' thread

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Replies: 641
By:
OilyWragg
When: 01 Jul 13 12:35
Monday;

Based on LTO Performance;

2.45 Wolves Red Cape/Above The Stars 6/1 or less
4.30 Pontefract World Map 6/1 or less
9.17 Ffos Las Silcas Dream 6/1 or less

others being monitored,

Transfer 6.15 FL
Fanrouge 4.00P
By:
OilyWragg
When: 01 Jul 13 14:47
Red Cape a nice winner at 8.03 and placed at 2.44.
By:
OilyWragg
When: 02 Jul 13 13:54
Tuesday;

Based on LTO Performance;


2.15 Brighton Putin
4.45 Brighton Jonnie Skull
8.00 Bath Whitefall

New Trainer;

3.30 Hamilton Grandioquent
6.10 Stratford Ittirad
7.40 Stratford Moorland Jack
4.30 Hamilton Shady McCoy

also based on LTO
2.15 Brighton The Strig 6/1 or less
3.30 Hamilton Schmooze
By:
OilyWragg
When: 02 Jul 13 14:17
The Strig backed in from 8.6 and wins at 5.25 and placed at 2.76.
By:
Platinum
When: 02 Jul 13 15:01
Nice one Oily.

I thought this thread would be getting loads of attention by now, probably the only thread making a consistent profit on the forums and people just dont realise it, maybe you aint shouting loud enough Oily. Then again, there aint many on the forums with enough savvy to spot a winning thread imo.
By:
OilyWragg
When: 02 Jul 13 16:35
Cheers Platinum. It doesn't really matter how much attention the thread gets or not to be honest, its just a way of me recording my ideas and selections. Over 400 bets on the thread so far and we are showing a healthy profit, thats all that matters.

Shady Mccoy wins at 3.26, placed at 1.5
Jonny Skull a non runner.
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 02 Jul 13 19:43
well done oily, im going to read this from page one when i get time..great to see a successful thread
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 02 Jul 13 19:43
do you know how many points up you are so far?
By:
OilyWragg
When: 03 Jul 13 10:42
latest update,

Monday;

Based on LTO Performance;

2.45 Wolves Red Cape/Above The Stars 6/1 or less................Won at 8.03 and placed at 2.44
4.30 Pontefract World Map 6/1 or less...........................unplaced
9.17 Ffos Las Silcas Dream 6/1 or less..........................unplaced

Tuesday;

Based on LTO Performance;


2.15 Brighton Putin.........................................unplaced
4.45 Brighton Jonnie Skull.................non runner
8.00 Bath Whitefall.........................................unplaced
2.15 Brighton The Strig 6/1 or less.........................Won at 5.25 and Placed at 2.76
3.30 Hamilton Schmooze......................................Placed at 1.58

New Trainer;

3.30 Hamilton Grandioquent............difted way out........unplaced
6.10 Stratford Ittirad......................................Placed at 1.43
7.40 Stratford Moorland Jack................................Placed at 2.12
4.30 Hamilton Shady McCoy...................................Won at 3.26 and Placed at 1.5
By:
OilyWragg
When: 03 Jul 13 10:46
Cheers sweetchildofmine, the current figures are

Based on LTO Performance;

13/39 and a profit of +16.74 points
26/39 Placed and a profit of 7.85 points.

New Trainer stats;

13/46 and a profit of +29.26 points
26/46 placed and a profit of 20.59 points.
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 03 Jul 13 10:48
thats incredible, most successful thread on here bar none
By:
OilyWragg
When: 03 Jul 13 10:55
The full bets so far for the 'Based on LTO Performance' reads as follows,

242 bets so far,

75/242 have won showing a profit to BFSP of +47.35 points

159/242 have placed showing profits of +34.01 points
By:
OilyWragg
When: 03 Jul 13 11:07
Steady on sweetchildofmine...lol...still in the experimental stages as yet.
By:
OilyWragg
When: 03 Jul 13 12:48
Wednesday;

Based on LTO Performance;

6.40 Chepstow Swendab (12)
9.10 Chepstoe Breakheart (11)


New Trainer;

7.40 Chepstow Boom To Bust 17/2 or less
5.10 Perth The Ice Factor 10/1 or less

a new section that I'm monitoring, still based on LTO Performance;

7.40 Chepstow Peak Storm
9.10 Chepsotw Stag Hill
By:
OilyWragg
When: 03 Jul 13 16:29
Stag Hill a non runner.
Unless something remarkable happens then Boom To Bust and Ice Factor will be no where near qualifying prices.
By:
OilyWragg
When: 03 Jul 13 17:27
Oh well..Ice Factor went off at 32, and was second at place odds of 8.71
By:
Vadim88
When: 03 Jul 13 18:31
"75/242 have won showing a profit to BFSP of +47.35 points
159/242 have placed showing profits of +34.01 points"

hey again! ;)
When u calculate these numbers - are 75 WINS included in 159 PLACED horses? ;)
By:
OilyWragg
When: 03 Jul 13 19:06
Hi,

I think I know what you mean, yes if a horse wins it also has a place price.
By:
OilyWragg
When: 04 Jul 13 12:48
Wednesday;
Yesterday;

Based on LTO Performance;

6.40 Chepstow Swendab (12)...........................Placed at 1.91 (traded to 1.32 i/r) 
9.10 Chepstoe Breakheart (11)........................Placed at 1.3


New Trainer;

7.40 Chepstow Boom To Bust 17/2 or less....N/Q
5.10 Perth The Ice Factor 10/1 or less.....N/Q shame as placed at 8.71
By:
OilyWragg
When: 04 Jul 13 13:25
Thursday;

Based on LTO Performance;


4.20 Haydock Head Space
4.20 Haydock Mappin Time
4.30 Perth Sergeant Pink(7) to 10/1 4th fav
8.55 Epsom Assizes(5)
9.10 Newbury Alta Lilea(7)

Ire.

6.15 Leopardstown Intensified
7.20 Leopardstown Rain God(4)
8.30 Leopardstown Neophillia(6)

New Trainer;

3.00 Perth Crookstown
4.30 Perth Be My Deputy
By:
Vadim88
When: 04 Jul 13 13:43
5.10 Perth The Ice Factor 10/1 or less.....N/Q shame as placed at 8.71

Would be a great selection for a middle! Higher odds - less expensive middle... :p
And this seemed to qualify for it.
By:
Vadim88
When: 04 Jul 13 13:45
Cost of middle around 20 GBP to get 150 GBP profit! ^^
By:
Vadim88
When: 04 Jul 13 14:35
By the way - what those numbers mean in the brackets next to the horse names:

"8.55 Epsom Assizes(5)
9.10 Newbury Alta Lilea(7)"

?
By:
OilyWragg
When: 04 Jul 13 15:14
Crookstown backed from 4 to 3.33 and wins, placed at 1.5.
By:
OilyWragg
When: 04 Jul 13 19:24
Rain God backed from 3.8 and wins at 3.25 Placed at 1.43
Head Space just beaten in a photo(traded to 1.12) placed at 1.58
Be My Deputy placed third at 2.02 (traded to 1.7 in running)
Sergeant Pink a non runner
Initensified unplaced
By:
Vadim88
When: 04 Jul 13 21:22
After this was not a very successful day...
4/7 unplaced

-3.5 points (EW)
By:
Vadim88
When: 04 Jul 13 21:24
Picked a wrong day to follow your LTO selections :)
By:
OilyWragg
When: 05 Jul 13 08:39
Its a long term game is this.
By:
OilyWragg
When: 05 Jul 13 09:24
Yesterday;

Thursday;

Based on LTO Performance;


4.20 Haydock Head Space...................................Placed at 1.58. Beaten a nose and traded to 1.12
4.20 Haydock Mappin Time...................................unplaced
4.30 Perth Sergeant Pink(7) to 10/1 4th fav.....non runner..
8.55 Epsom Assizes(5).....................................unplaced
9.10 Newbury Alta Lilea(7)................................unplaced

Ire.

6.15 Leopardstown Intensified.............................unplaced
7.20 Leopardstown Rain God(4).............................Won at 3.25 Backed in from 3.8. Placed at 1.43
8.30 Leopardstown Neophillia(6)...........................Won at 2.36 (from 2.86) and placed at 1.35

New Trainer;

3.00 Perth Crookstown.....................................Won at 3.33 (from 4) and placed at 1.5
4.30 Perth Be My Deputy...................................Placed at 2.02
By:
Vadim88
When: 05 Jul 13 10:46
Yeah - you are right!
Many competitive races were yesterday - can't win every day! )
By:
OilyWragg
When: 05 Jul 13 14:06
Friday;

Based On LTO Performance;

2.40 Warwick Fair Ranger
6.45 Haydock Script 6/1 or less

others I'm watching, based on lto

6.45 Haydock Lucky Dan
4.10 Doncaster Bollin Greta

and a trainer one I'm watching;

7.45 Haydick Forget Me Not Lane
By:
OilyWragg
When: 05 Jul 13 16:13
Bollin Greta backed in from 16 and wins at 9 and placed at 2.65.
By:
Deltâ
When: 05 Jul 13 16:13
2/2 afternoon shift

WD
By:
Vadim88
When: 05 Jul 13 16:18
Nice pick for Bollin Greta! ;) Congrats!
By:
OilyWragg
When: 06 Jul 13 10:41
Saturday;

Based On LTO Performance;

6.30 Nottingham Nenge Mboko

Ire.

5.50 Bellewstown Capitol Hill


some others that I'm monitoring;

4.40 Haydock Beacon Lodge
5.35 Leicester Lord Franklin
6.00 Nottingham Rub Of The Relic/Young Jackie

The 'New Trainer' selections are in short supply at the moment, here are some that don't fall into that category but are selections based around the trainer;

2.30 Bev Red Paladin
4.25 Lei Desert Command
4.40 Hay Laffan
By:
zzzorro
When: 06 Jul 13 18:05
One is assuming that for accountacy purposes only the 'Based on LTO Performance' and 'New Trainer' are the only ones to concentrate on with the rest just being 'monitored' for future reference and not to be backed? Nice thread. Nice to see someone in front without having to aftertime.
By:
OilyWragg
When: 06 Jul 13 18:38
One would be quite correct zzzorro.

Nenge Mboko a winner at 2.25 having been available at 2.8 earlier.
Capitol Hill placed at 1.89, traded to 1.51 in the win market.
By:
OilyWragg
When: 07 Jul 13 12:30
Sunday;

Based On LTO Performance;

Ire.

2,35 Limerick Knockroghery

New Trainer;

4.55 Bellewstown Derg Pricess


others
5.05 Limerick IamtoldIamgrand/Just Eile
5.35 Supreme Ballerina
By:
OilyWragg
When: 07 Jul 13 18:02
Knockcroghery a winner at 3.85 and placed at 1.57
Derg Princess traded to 1.71 before being injured and pulled up
Supreme Ballerina a nice winner at 14.13 and Placed at 4.14
By:
zzzorro
When: 07 Jul 13 18:32
A rather nice day Mr Wragg.
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