General Betting
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am i the youngest formumite on here?
am i the youngest formumite on here?
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Newmanix, why are you dividing by 3 when the price was 5.1 at the time of trade-out.
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right didn't really wana post this not advisable for trading but i will clear up the position on the cricket trade.
U.A your figures are correct around £370 split between three outcomes on the match from the trade 3.1 - 5.1. the mistake i made in the earlier post was in saying my position after 1 hour of play was £666. This was not the case this was my position at the end of the play for the first day. i text my mate at around 9am on tuesday morning to thank him for the trade and told him i had traded out at 5.1 and was green. he text back saying wel done and that he was waiting in the queue for 4.5. so from my understanding he must of not of been watching the game live and when he woke up at say after 8am the 5.1 was gone and the draw price had flown back in. then at around 10am the draw price was 2.96 after jaywerdene and sangakarra put a decent partnership together after the earlier 3 wicket collaspse. so i go for my 15 min morning break at work and only one thing is on my mind to get another lay back on at around 3. WHY? well this is a pro trader who does this for a living and has not traded out yet so what are the chances of him not getting a trade at sumpoint. the weather conditions are fine so a trade is more than likely. whether it was a mug decision to go back in people can judge themselves but wonder what they would do in those circumstances. apologies for being a tit but didn't wana bring this up as its not advisable trading  |
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could well of done the unders trade with fulham vs chelsea 2.06 this morning 1.95 now but oh well can't do every match.
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under 2.5 1.91 at kickoff why did i not put 1k on at 2.06
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Hello there Smithy91. You also said "the price dropped down to less than 2/1 again as the day panned out and i was tempted to jump on again but waiting for my mates opinion at the close of play today. the draw currently trades at 4.1". This was not the case as you did jump in.
Anyway you may well think that i am a right doorhandle who is on your case but i do have a few points to make. Firstly look at why are you doing this thread. I assumed that it was to help you in your learning of what you are doing, maybe getting useful tips from other people who do a similar thing and maybe get some helpful advice on the way as to what you could be doing to improve your profit. It most definitely should not be about some ego trip giving out advice to people on what to trade. It's a shame if it is. As far as I can see you are telling people what trades you are going to do and why you are doing them. You are not their advisor, what they decide to do is up to them not your responsibility. As such you should try to be truthful in all the trades you do. You can't learn all the things you are doing wrong if you ashamed to admit them. The best thing you can do is analyse everything you've done, even the bad things. For what it's worth I don't think it's a bad thing going back in and doing what you did. Also I don't think you should allow bets to go in play, but it's your money so your rules. I do think you have a bad habit of not wanting to accept a loss because you think prices are wrong. As a pre-match trader prices are never wrong, they just are what they are. Your job is to predict which way they are going to go. You are either right or wrong. As a bettor, then prices can definitely be wrong, but when they are you should act on them as a bettor not a trader. I do think that this stems from not being prepared to accept that you are wrong, because i believe that when a game goes in-play you wait and look to trade out when the price hits the original price where you made your first trade. Why do it at this price rather than any other. I know you did this for the Norwich v Chelsea game. Again just my view and am just offering my opinion feel free to disagree, like i mentioned your money your rules. Just out of curiousity am interested to know what happened in the Sun v Tot game on the back of the New v Liv game. Did you trade out and accept a loss or let a position go in play. Also if you are not doing it already you should record prices of the markets you are interested in. They really will help as your memory like everybody else's is not perfect. The more data you have, the more help it will be. Anyway it is a good thread, hope you keep it going and good luck in your future trades. |
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"Anyway you may well think that i am a right doorhandle who is on your case but i do have a few points to make."
Not at all U.A anyone is welcome to give feedback on this thread whether good or bad i am new to this game and theres a lot more people on here who know more than me about trading so thanks for your opinion. you may be suprised but i actually agree with you and i think the time has come to cut out in play trading of match odds and take a loss when required before kickoff. the under 2.5 markets are providing enough income now for me to not have to let 1k plus liabilities run in play. i've had fun and picked up a few big wins from leaving trades to run in play but need to think like a trader and not a gambler now and avoid any big losses like the west brom vs sunderland game a couple of month back. the reason i am doing this thread. well to be honest in the last few week this has become a bit like a trading diary for me and i enjoy being away from the football forum and talking about some good trading opportunities. maybe i shouldn't be telling people to lump on trades they can make their own decisions. i just get a bit excited sometimes when i see an under 2.5 price out of line  these are results for you U.A from sunderland vs tottenham game. match odds: layed spurs at 2.3 backed at 2.2 leaving me like this at kickoff sunderland =-£33 draw=-£33 tottenham =-£33 unders: backed unders at 2.04 layed at 1.95 leaving me like this at kickoff under 2.5 =+£60 over 2.5=+£30 not outstanding results could of had 1.91 on unders but got greedy looking back now i have no idea what i was doing trying to get a better lay price than 1.91 but left extra green on under 2.5 to make amends as i fancied a low scoring encounter. lost £33 on the match odds although spurs were falsely price i accepted the loss and moved on. i do record all prices too U.A and my memory is pretty decent when it comes to memorising match odds. i can't remember how to do my job at work but yet can remember what price utd were at anfield last year[:laugh: something not right there. by the way U.A i am guessing you are also a pre off trader is this correct and what success have you had seem like an intelligent guy? |
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a question for all people who have commented and viewed this thread over the last month or so.
seems to me most people like the thread so just wondering with the football season ending in may should i carry it on for next season? after the season is finished i will be taking a break from here going on a lads holiday and doing things what a normal 20 year old lad does and come back refreshed for the new season |
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Hello there Smithy91
You mentioned "tottenham have been been backed in to 2.2 from 2.3 so currently looking at £100 red if things don't change there". Just out of curiousity how did you reduce your loss to £33. I do a bit of pre-off trading, in-play trading and pre-match betting but recently have not been able to give it nearly enough attention. I mentioned the prices thing because for example Chelsea were 2.38 away at Everton and you wanted to lay Arsenal at 2.4. Chelsea were in awful form when they went to Everton not that long before Arsenal, and had AVB. Arsenal were in really good form at the time. This price may have helped you out but it's all hindsight really. By the way the reason your Liverpool are such a long price against your beloved Blackburn is because Blackburn have everything to play for and people believe that Liverpool will take it extra easy before the FA Cup Semi. I don't think people really appreciated that Newcastle had a lot to play for when they played Liverpool as they didn't really that they genuinely had a chance at finishing 4th. If you feel it's of a benefit to you then you should continue next season, if you feel that all the time and effort is too much (along with people like myself asking too many questions) then don't bother. Either way do what's best for you, and don't give too many of your secrets away. |
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I fancied the Fulham Chelsea Unders myself, but didn't think they'd drop as much as they did; likewise i would have gone in at 2.1 or bigger.
A match catching my attention on Wednesday is the potential Bundesliga decider between Dortmund and Bayern Munich. I'm surprised the Unders look like they could hit 2.2; this could well trade like a lot of the Premier games between the top teams and come in significantly towards kickoff. The first game this season was a tactical battle, and with a lot at stake, i expect the lower correct scores to be backed near the off, meaning Unders drop. I was also looking at trading Unders for Wigan MU, since MU seem to be just doing enough the last few games and not scoring freely. I thought this may go above 2.3 but this now seems unlikely; however, given the weather forecast with a lot of wind and rain about, this could still have an effect of peoples perception of the game bringing goal markets down. One to keep an eye on. |
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hi andriy i like sound of that dortmund vs munich unders trade. you could well be right and it might well trade like the premier league matches high liquidity and price being drove into 2 around kickoff. i will try an get 1k at 2.2 and may possibly top up if price drifts out to 2.3. good luck mate and cheers for tip
.u.a - didn't fancy a £100 red on a spurs win so reduced the loss |
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Ah so you let it go in-play I assume and traded out then.
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smithy the football season doesnt end man..then its the euro's, then the olympic footy, then the pre season tournaments
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dortmund unders now trading around 2.0
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hi sweetchildofmine yes unders backed in to 2 at around 9am this morning so i traded the bet out as i do not believe it will get lower than 2 but i was very suprised the drop occured so early was expecting to be nearer kickoff time. not complaining though this is me for game.
dortmund vs bayern munich under 2.5= +£80 over 2.5= +£80 think i will have a break from here for a while still i have my edge now so need time to chill before next season even though the euros are tempting. andriy thanks a lot for the tip you seem to smashing these unders trades now. the bundesliga is not somewhere i often look for these trades but this one certainly made sense. you are more than welcome to keep posting winning trades on here mate your input is much appreciated 18 of the last 20 unders trades have shown a green screen one red screen and one £0. this means i will be upping the stakes next season if these crazy 20 tick drops keep occuring. |
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Wolves-Bolton Unders also happened overnight, then drifted back out strongly before KO.
This weekend the Man City price looks like it could be too low again at Norwich, about 1.7ish, but not much liquidity at the moment; the same as it was at Stoke before it went out about 10 ticks. With Norwich going well, and City maybe having thrown in the towel, i can only see it going out (maybe only caveat could be if MU drop pts tonight at Wigan). |
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thanks andriy again mate.
tonight people i am very sad it looks like i will be watching championship football next season |
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Unlucky Smithy shocking set of results for your boys tonight.
Hope to see you continue posting on this thread next season! |
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thanks southcoast mate. i don't think i will be getting a season ticket next year would rather play for a team myself or trade on here than watch barnsley at home
 .yeh i think i will start a new thread on here when when next season starts and try and keep it going with a full season of pre off trading. this has only been going for a month and has been pretty decent so over the course of a season we could be on the right end of numerous price swings and not many threads for trading last very long on here so will be a good challenge and look forward to it. |
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Just had a quick look at your remaining fixtures wouldn't say your down just yet
I used to go most Villa games but knocked it on the head when I starting winning a bit more on here Only been to a couple of games this season...don't think I've missed too much 'football' under Mcleish |
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interesting read this thread, how do you choose games? Instinct?
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cheers southcoast i think even your football genius is not enough to save us
. don't blame you not goin villa games i would rather be on here too.hi time-to-tip looking for prices i think will move before kickoff and following price trends pre off for the under 2.5 market thats basically it mate. |
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big game for me tonight playing for my pub team in the blackburn combination 11- a side league. if we don't win we miss out on promotion if we win we are up. the team will fall apart if we don't win tonight and i will be on here on saturdays if we lose tonight
. think am playin either centre mid or left mid and am guna run my bollocks off for the team we have to win playing in the league we are in at the moment is like playing stoke every week you come of pitch battered and bruised. 6 o clock kickoff no live coverage unfortunately and no pre off trading we are 1/5 faves unders is 1.2 for mug pub league defending |
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get in my team got promoted as we won 4-0 and i bagged the opening goal
. that means another year of having to trade out of 3pm saturday kickoffs early as my games kickoff off at 2. |
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the first trade of the weekend is here: lay tottenham at 2.62 with 1k. my love affair with spurs continues and this is why.
It’s difficult to work out why Spurs are favourites going into this clash considering their recent form. Harry Redknapp’s side have managed just one win in their last three games and going back further they’ve won just three in 11, two of which were FA Cup wins and all of which were at White Hart Lane. In comparison Chelsea are looking good at the moment having picked up four wins and a draw in their last five matches and they boast a decent head to head record with Sunday’s opponents. Chelsea have lost to Tottenham just once in their last six meetings and haven’t lost to their London rivals in the FA Cup since 1982. Redknapp still appears to be unsure what his best formation and best eleven is whilst Chelsea look settled under the guidance of Roberto Di Matteo so I’d be inclined to lay spurs at 2.62. |
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Indeed this is a curious one. The only reason I assume that Chelsea are not starting as favourites is people will think that they will be a bit distracted with their game against Barca coming up.
The other strange one is Eve v Liv. Everton above Liverpool in the league, and last 6 games Everton have been in better form than Liverpool but Liverpool are favourites. Strange when Everton's short term and long term form is better. But Liverpool will start this game as favourites. Even though I think the true price should have them equally priced, i don't believe this will be the case at kick-off. We will see. |
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Well Liverpool-Everton could be interesting for the impact of Asian money where it will be prime Sat evening TV; that Newcastle game market will linger long in the memory. Tottenham- Chelsea Unders far too low to be of interest.
The weird market for me though is Norwich v Man City. Beating a surrendering WBA at home is one thing, but MC's away form is lousy, and Norwich certainly won't be thinking about their summer holidays when they play this one. I can see why the flood of money has come in for them, but now seems far too low. The Unders market is fascinating though, now having gone past 2.4; Ok so people think MC will want to win by as many goals as possible for their goal difference, but that's not Mancini's style away form Etihad, he'll be happy for 1-0 or 2-0; i can potentially see the narrow victories scorelines coming in, meaning Unders steam in... but i may be completely wrong since if floods of further money come in for MC, the Unders will naturally drift further. In conclusion, absolutely no idea. |
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great input guys
"The other strange one is Eve v Liv. Everton above Liverpool in the league, and last 6 games Everton have been in better form than Liverpool but Liverpool are favourites. Strange when Everton's short term and long term form is better. But Liverpool will start this game as favourites. Even though I think the true price should have them equally priced, i don't believe this will be the case at kick-off. We will see" absolute spot on U.A they will start as favourites even though they should not so not worth trading on but spurs price will hopefully move out to 2.8 and could be worth the trade. andriy if under 2.5 in norwich vs man city has liquid in at around 2.5 i will be steaming in. i have also noticed this after looking tonight and i really don't expect to see any higher than 2.4 at kickoff. its certainly a low risk trade which is what us traders want. i will post on the thread on friday at what price i get and would certainly advise people to get on if 2.5 is available. just as a little pointer when chelsea played at carrow road under 2.5 was 2.2 at kickoff and unders tends to always come in televised 12:45 saturday lunchtime match |
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smithy im going to start logging prices for all major leagues for correct scores and unders and also outright match betting at various points from a week before the game to kick off..it will be good to have a constant point of reference
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should of said im starting next season
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so you will trade out of Spurs pre kick off mate?
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yes bob mate i will be trading out of spurs lay at kickoff. layed at 2.64 now out to 2.7 so a good start
.i am leaving 1k at 2 on under 2.5 in tottenham vs chelsea cannot see this not being odds on at kickoff. the game finished 0-0 the other week plus this will be tight with it being a cup semi final 60% of cup semis have gone unders at wembley. most bookies go 4/5 about under 2.5 so we will be gaining an edge by getting on at evens early doors. good luck anyone following suit |
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sweetchildofmine you will learn a lot by doing that so good luck
. i will be focusing more on my under 2.5 trades now as they provide constant green screens and you only have two outcomes to green instead of three with match odds. seems to be a good edge |
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my CDA (career devolpment adviser) at work who looks after the apprentices asked me what i had learned recently.
i replied to him "i have learned that under 2.5 goals drops by around 20 ticks 45 minutes before kickoff in high profile matches especially between the top 6 in the english premier league" |
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how did he react to that?
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boom! spurs out to 2.76 the form book is sorting the odds out and still 2 days until kickoff. now fully matched at 2.5 on under 2.5 in norwich vs man city wait for the drop now.
bob i dint really say that although its the truth if any1 asks at work i say i back utd to win every match |
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how you see man city game tmrw? not the trading the actual match? |
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i think city are way to short bob. 1.57 is a joke they have won only two away games in the prem since the new year and there last win away was at villa park in february. throw in as well yaya toure is doubtful and balotelli suspended i would definetely lay city at the price they should be 1.8
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well well look at the price of liverpool again. backed from 2.6 into 2.4 thats exactly why we said to avoid trading them, backed in although bang out of form recently against in form everton now 3.5. i know where my money would go on the game if i had to take one of those prices.
maybe its time to start backing liverpool and laying at kickoff. regardless of form they get backed in week after week |
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Interesting thread, I also do a fair bit of pre-match trading. I can see Chelsea being favourites by KO tomorrow.
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hi thebert i can see chelsea being favourites aswell have u layed spurs?
waitin for the drop on unders in norwich vs man city hopefully it will happen if not hopefully won't go any higher |