General Betting
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am i the youngest formumite on here?
am i the youngest formumite on here?
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hi premier league cycle thanks for posting.
your right in everything you have said but for this season everytime i have left the bet in play i have only been caught out once which was west brom 4-0 sunderland. i lost £1580. but then the week after i bagged £500 on arsenal vs tottenham and £900 on tranmere vs notts county from letting the trades go in play so swings and roundabouts really. is their not as much chance of newcastle scoring 1st or even a goaless opening 15 mins?. but i have doubled my stake on this trade so will be trading 1k out before game starts as i cannot afford to lose £3500 |
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Fair enough Smithy,
I'm just speaking from a couple of bad experiences of letting things go in-play myself. After being burnt a couple of times I make sure I always get out pre kick-off now. Even if it leaves me with a certain red. Still, I hope this one goes your way and I'll be keeping my fingers crossed for you ! |
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cheers mate
 yes hopefully avoid getting burnt on this one but traded the 1st 1k out at 2.26 |
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I've redded out levels on the match odds. With hindsight it seems the Overs market was the one to trade here, it seemed to come in quite a bit given the weak defences.
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burn in hell market
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WD S91
As usual ..i get how game goes "wrong" with LIVERPOOL.....still have OVER 2.5....and 2-0 is covered as layed 1-0 a bit! So profit whatever happens now... Very good call S91 |
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cheers mate. just backed under 2.5 at 2.4 with 1k hoping for a quick trade. i saw the price at 2.16 earlier in week looks massive to me and checked bookies prices they are top priced 5/4.
i also had a little trade at halftime in newcastle vs liverpool market. i mentioned in past posts about market movement at half time when game is not in play for the goals market that is two goals away from current score. as soon as the whistle went for half time i layed under at 1.93 and at the end of half time it was 2. i reckon this is because its difficult to decide with the score at 1-0 whether the game will go over 2.5 is difficult to weigh up so the market moves about. it keeps happening in high liquidity games watch the tottenham vs swansea half time under/over markets and i will be looking for something similar. will update results for the week after. not turned out to bad after the newcastle game but i feared the worst in first 20 min thought liverpool started well |
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unders into 2.3 in space of 5 min in tottenham game knew it was to big
. i used easyodds.com to compare odds for unders market and most had price at 11/10. |
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price seems to holding at 2.3 now so i am trading out not being greedy.
tottenham vs swansea under2.5 =+£50 over 2.5 =+£50 just the half time goal markets now and i am done for the weekend. |
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Well done Smithy
Liverpool were shocking! |
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thanks southcoast. ino they were second half especially mate. i'm glad that game is done and dusted the price was annoying at kickoff and should of drifted.
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yep the same thing happened yet again in tottenham vs swansea. start of half time layed under 2.5 at 1.91 and before start of 2nd half i have backed at 1.95.
only a 4 or 5 ticks movement but if your using £500 or 1k and the same trend is occuring consistently could prove very profitable . |
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these are results for this weeks trades got lucky today with newcastle and i know some people don't agree with the in play strategy but all my biggest wins have come from when the trades have gone in play and i still have not had a big loss since the west brom vs sunderland game.
stevenage vs bournemouth backed at 2.06 traded out at 2.16 stevenage = -£33 the draw = -£33 bournemouth = -£33 LOST benfica vs chelsea layed under 2.5 at 1.7 traded out at 1.74 under 2.5 =+£40 over 2.5 =+£0 WON wolves vs bolton backed under 2.5 at 2.26 traded out at 2 under 2.5 =+£130 over 2.5 =+£130 WON newcastle vs liverpool layed liverpool at 2.42 and 2.5. backed at 2.26 and 4.1 in play. newcastle +£500 the draw +£500 liverpool +£280 WON tottenham vs swansea baacked under 2.5 at 2.4 traded out at 2.3 under 2.5= +£50 over 2.5 =+£50 WON profit £687 not getting carried away with the big win liverpool could of opened the scoring at newcastle if carrol had of rounded the keeper and newcastle scored slightly against run of play. the unders trades have been coming good on a consistent basis comparing the unders odds with the odds comparison sites i use gives a good insight and can sometimes give me the edge to get on the price at the right time. thanks to andriy for the wolves vs bolton unders trade that was a belter more of those would be much appreciated trades i have lined up for this week start on tuesday morning by laying the draw in england vs sri lanka providing the weather forecast looks ok. now i know nothing about cricket trading but my mate on here cleaned up bigtime on the 1st test and has been doing this for years so i will be defintely investing on his know how. then i noticed arsenal are playing man city at home next weekend that could prove to be a contender for a nice unders trade as under 2.5 tends to get hammered in around kickoff when the big sides meet. |
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"but all my biggest wins have come from when the trades have gone in play and i still have not had a big loss since the west brom vs sunderland"
Have you checked where you would stand if you just bet outright on all events in comparison to trading? I think 3 of the Europa matches on Thursday are out; since the first legs were all overs, i think the assumption that the returns will be the same has been overestimated. Bilbao may be happy just to manage the game vs Schalke (i don't think their attitude will be quite the same as against MU since that was like a home cup final to them). Hannover at home are always tight. Potential trades as money comes in for Unders. I think any money in Chelsea - Benfica will be on Overs, currently Unders slight fave, but expect prices to flipflop. |
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yeh i would be well in profit if i was leaving sum bets to run right through but i prefer to trade out once i have a particular price i am after.
i left the newcastle vs liverpool game to run as newcastle should of been favourites in my book and the market was well wrong. i like the sound of some unders trading in europa league should be good and with the bilbao game when they played utd unders started at 2.52 and was 2.26 at kickoff in the return leg so yeh deffo sumthin to look out for |
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smithy, I have read that thunderstorms are forecast later in the week for the test, therefor a draw is on the cards. dont do it man.
unless you trade out during the first innings!!! |
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also, it is a bit silly of you to get involved in sports u dont know. u clearly have an edge on football, so why branch out in something u know nothing about.
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hi newmanix yeh i think the plan is to get in and out as soon as we get a good trade.
but i must say that i exchange tips with a guy with is a full time sports trader on here so the fact that my knowledge on cricket is rubbish should be irrelevant as he will give me the shout when to trade out. this was his screen for 1st test: england =+£1100 the draw =+£1200 sri lanka=+£950 |
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wasn't expecting any pre off trades today but after waiting in the queue for 11 hours my bet on under 2.5 at 2.48 in the blackburn vs man u game was matched at around 11 o clock this morning whilst i was at work. not expectin a massive price change but just looked quite big to me and i hope will come in to 2.4 at kickoff
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Agree with the Man u unders, also think it will steam
Often with a strong away team unders at 0-1/0-2 steam in. As long as theres no big drift on Man u then the 0-1 should come in 0-2 steamed over the last few hours so a bit late for that one now |
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yeh summerteeth sounds about right not expecting big movement as most games at ewood see a few goals so overs will attract a few
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not the best trade ever but here it is:
blackburn vs man utd under 2.5 =+£0 over 2.5 =+£40 a £40 free bet on overs only a four tick movement. i put it all on overs as virtually every blackburn game goes over 2.5 and everygame goes over 1.5 |
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unders 2.38 at kickoff should of waited
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Great work guys
Unders 2.46-2.36 0-1 9.2-8.8 |
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a shocking over 2.5 prediction from me but still every blackburn league and cup match has gone over 1.5 bar one this season.
 cricket trade is on 1k lay on draw in the england vs sri lanka test match at 3.1 will post up results. |
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Few thoughts on the Weekend? as you know smithy i deal in the cs markets but MO plays a key part
Villa currently at 9? could well move in a tick or 2, could depend on something called "draw inflation" Sunderland at 3.3 look on the big side Stoke at 1.65 look a little short. Also unders in liverpool game currently 2-2.14 region, expect that to be odds on. |
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I can see Unders coming in a bit on the Liverpool game, but as for the match odds, looking at the support for Liv at Newc, it's difficult to envisage a drift on their part, regardless of form. Hence i'm not sure if Villa will come in (available at 9, 10 in a place with the bookies), and the draw may come in slightly at AV's expense.
Arsenal - Man City will possibly see Unders backed. Stoke: fancy unders, team is tired after a long season. I think i've seen a really good trade in the weekend European leagues though, just want to see if it drifts a bit before the weekend, because i can see it being heavily supported before the match. |
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thanks for thoughts guys sounds good to me.
could not believe i woke up this morning with the draw at 5.1 in the cricket after less than one hour played. sri lanka were 37/3 and that has left me with a goldmine for the 2nd time in a week thanks to my mate who is a full time pro on here. this is how i looked after a hour of the 2nd test. sri lanka =+£666 the draw =+£668 england =+£666. i have equalled the green between the three as i have no idea who will win the test. the price dropped down to less than 2/1 again as the day panned out and i was tempted to jump on again but waiting for my mates opinion at the close of play today. the draw currently trades at 4.1 |
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the 1st football trade of the weekend is waiting in line. i have browsed through the match odds for premier league fixtures and have found one match odds trade. swansea vs newcastle is priced up pretty well in my opinion but maybe swansea are a tad short considering newcastle are like a steam train at the minute. arsenal are rightly favourites to beat man city so will be leaving that one although i am waiting for the under 2.5 maket to take shape in that game.
the trade i like the look of though is to lay tottenham away at sunderland at 2.3. i'm not saying there is a massive inbalance of the odds here and two months ago i would of said spurs were fairly priced here. But we have to consider what has happened in recent weeks. sunderland have already turned over city, liverpool and arsenal in the cup on home turf and have only lost 6 of around 21 games under o' neill. tottenham season has derailed in recent weeks and i'm not buying a home win over swansea as turning the corner. defeats at home to utd and drawing at home to stoke and defeat away at everton means they are not bang in form. i recently opposed tottenham away at everton layed at 2.6 and backed at 2.78 as you will find earlier in the thread even though a few people did come on and disagree with me saying spurs would get shorter in price. i would price this game up like this sunderland 3.05 tottenham 2.54-2.56. if they are the prices at kickoff i will be nicely greened and i can't see spurs going any shorter than 2.2 in the worst case scenario.good luck people if you follow |
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here goes trade 2: just found under 2.5 in valencia vs alkmaar betweeen 2.44-2.5. i reckon we could see 2.3 or less at kickoff.
alkmaar only need a clean sheet to progress and valencia will be wary of conceding an away goal which could end the tie. this means we could see a more cautious approach and i fancy unders to be a bit more fancied when people click on. 1k at betweeen those prices should get a good trade |
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no trades come up then three at once. trade number 3 is to lay athletico madrid at 2.4 with 1k against hannover this is why.
I can't see any reason the Germans shouldn't be faves - they are stronger in Germany than AM in Spain, they are in form, played well in Spain (last minute 2-1 defeat) unbeaten at home in the Bundesliga and AM are just awful away from home, only 2 wins all season and were even beaten at Zaragoza a couple of weeks back. Seems like a case of pricing up on their respective histories (wrote by green army on the football forum) he has won me a lot of money already so he worth listening too. get on all three people  |
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well that was interesting. got matched at 2.5 for under 2.5 on valencia vs alkmaar but the price has just been drifting all day the other way. it then stopped at 2.7 so i was looking at losing £100 either way. normally in these circumstances i would top up and put more money on but i was ready to just accept the loss at kickoff. but one thing i have learnt with these unders trades is to leave it until around kickoff. i went down for my tea and price was 2.7 came back on and price was 2.5 time to bail and cashout. well done to anyone that got the 2.7 sharper than me.
.under 2.5 =£0 over 2.5 =£0 slightly better with the athletico trade got 2.56 this aft. i am now hoping hannover's home record stands up. hannover =+£80 the draw =+£80 athlectico madrid =£0 come on you germans |
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haha a winner for madrid to leave me out of pocket trading the europa league matches. hope for better luck this weekend on the tottenham trade and waiting for under 2.5 market in arsenal vs man city to get sum liquid in. the big win on the cricket though should see me end the week well in pocket although i am gutted to hear there is only two tests for sri lanka vs england would have liked more of the same.
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Well done Smithy a good thread to read
Hopefully some winning Easter trades |
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thanks southcoast hopefully pull something decent out the bag on the footie well done to you to seem to have the winning formula again this month
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another trade for the sunderland vs tottenham game. the under/over 2.5 market is currently priced as so.
under 2.5 2.04-2.06 over 2.5 1.94-1.95. i have 1k waiting in line to back under 2.5 at 2.06. the reason being i fancy the prices to reverse around kickoff time which if i'm right would leave me £100 plus to green. its a common factor in the lunchtime kickoffs on saturdays i see unders hammered in on a regualr basis. Bookies are also unsure most go 5/6 on both outcomes. Sunderland love a good unders game at home to some of the bigger teams. 1-0 against liverpool and city beat arsenal 2-0 in the cup beaten off everton 2-0 in the cup. spurs also drew their last away game 0-0 at chelsea so i fancy people will jump on the unders bandwagon which will see us be able to lay off at odds on before kickoff. |
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just watching the final day of the cricket england closing down on a 94 run target which will see me scoop my biggest ever win on cricket. gutted to hear there are no more test matches between the two so i can't do same again.
tottenham have been been backed in to 2.2 from 2.3 so currently looking at £100 red if things don't change there |
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1k matched on unders at 2.04 waitin for unders to be smashed in now
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i was right guys the prices have been completly reversed and its 3 hours before kickoff.
unders 1.93 now i got 2.04 |
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can't believe how many times i have made a profit in under 2.5 market before kickoff in tottenham games check this out guys.
tottenham vs swansea backed unders at 2.4 layed at 2.3 tottenham vs man utd backed unders at 2.24 layed at 2 tottenham vs chelsea backed unders at 2.16 layed at 1.97 arsenal vs tottenahm backed unders at 2.3 layed at 2.1 liverpool vs tottenahm backed unders at 2.1 layed at 1.93 everton vs tottenahm backed unders at 1.9 layed at 1.78 sunderland vs tottenham backed unders at 2.04 layed at ? they are the official kings of the pre match unders trade |