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am i the youngest formumite on here?

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Replies: 4,673
By:
Andriy
When: 16 Apr 12 19:39
Yes the price on Spurs is ludicrous, but Unders may well come in as well (provisionally i think it my go to about 2.1 - 2.15) however no liquidity at the moment.

Unders in Bayern - Real Madrid could certainly take a beating, the price seems a bit high; not sure about the Chelsea Barca Unders though, compared to the 2.4 that was available for Milan Barca in the QF.

Also looking ahead to next weekend, i thought Unders on Bolton Swansea would be slight odds-on, but may well be a lot higher and i see that coming in.

I'm also keen on a couple of nice looking European League games next weekend that may well steam, i'm not sure about liquidity though, it can be variable: i'll Tweet them to you Smithy closer to the weekend if the market looks fine.
By:
thebert
When: 16 Apr 12 21:00
haa that Tottenham price is ridiculous, thanks for drawing it to my attention!
By:
smithy91
When: 16 Apr 12 21:12
hi guys thanks for input. U.A  mate got to disagree with the tottenham bet. earlier in season 1.8 -1.9 would of been fair but they really are not good so 2.2 is a more realistic price but whether it will drift only time will tell. your right about the arsenal and liverpool prices though at qpr both odds on. if i remember correctly arsenal went 1.65 into 1.55 and liverpool drifted 1.75 out to 1.95 away at qpr.

yeh i've got to agree andriy more confident of the bayern unders than chelsea vs barca always be way of goals when barca play.
my twitter is phil_smith91 so nice one mateGrin
By:
smithy91
When: 16 Apr 12 22:26
right guys fully loaded up on under 2.5 with 1k at 2.14 on bayern vs real madrid we could be looking at 2 at kickoff. if price drifts don't panic i will go in with more ammunition before the drop kicks inGrin
By:
thebert
When: 16 Apr 12 23:59
GL, not going in just yet but will have a look tomorrow.
By:
Blademan1889
When: 17 Apr 12 12:54
Some right **** on here,nowadays.
By:
dunter1
When: 17 Apr 12 14:03
Who might be the oldest forumite?
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Apr 12 16:59
bayern vs real madrid under 2.5 now trading at 2.06Grin
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 17:03
bitter blade?
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 17:08
smithy im having trouble with the beta forum..drop me a mail on bwl1961@live.co.uk  something i want to discuss with you..by the way thats a letter 'l' after the bw, it looks like a one
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Apr 12 17:08
ano bit bitter that might be because he been on since 2005 and still in lossCry
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 17:22
received and replied
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Apr 12 17:32
thanks sweetchildofmine that could become very usefulHappy
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 17:37
no worries, just see how it goes
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 19:35
ten minutes till kick off..looks like im going in play, oh well never mind Happy
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Apr 12 19:41
traded out at 2.08 does not help with stan james going 11/10 on unders so cheers stan for that. am i the only one thinkin under 2.5 ?

bayern vs real madrid under 2.5 =+£60Grin over 2.5=+£0Sad
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 19:50
youve still got a free bet though..some punters would kill for that position
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Apr 12 20:03
yes mate your right won't be to bothered if theres 3 goals haha 1-0 ribery already unders doomedCry
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 20:09
out at 7.4 for 4 ticks profit...price strangely held up tonight even after the goal
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 20:10
lol down to 7.0 now but couldnt risk another bayern goal
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 20:11
6.6 Mischief
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 20:14
6.2 now but you really need to bail soon after the first goal or it means you are out and out gambling
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Apr 12 20:17
yes mate i noticed would have to be a profit pre off for me though no in play bets anymore. i am making enough without having the big risk attached.

on the other hand if it drops its by 20 ticks every time and not 1 or 2 like unders so can see why it would workGrin
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 20:21
lol yeah when i say 4 ticks i mean to the power of ten
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 20:22
its a measure of how well it works though when im actually disapointed to take ''only'' 40 ticks profit
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 20:28
dont know about you smithy but 1.27 for city at wolves on sunday seems ridiculously skinny, can see at least 1.36 at kick off, and even that is on the conservative side..i would price them up at 1.4
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Apr 12 20:31
wow 1/4 awayLaugh you'd expect them to drift to 1.35 but i dunno i reckon a lot of people will still back them at any given price. lay tottenham is better no wins in last 7 away gamesGrin
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 20:33
you dont even get barca that low away to spanish cannon fodder..its a woefull price for an away game, even if it were in the cup at a lower league side...i'll have a look at spurs
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 17 Apr 12 20:36
yeah theres very little downside laying spurs at that price...no way are they going to start odds on, so worst case scenario break even or tiny red, but i can envisage maybe 2.18
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Apr 12 20:37
wow wolves at 14s at home.Laugh its one of them games were city are that short they will probs mess things up. might get involved is certainly a low risk trade. yeh get on spurs qpr already in to 4.1 from 4.4Grin
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Apr 12 21:47
haha two of last unders bets see £90 quid worth of green go begging. oh well still much more to get on this week. what do people reckon of trading unders in chelsea vs barca currently 2.1 not that keen tbh at that price. might monitor price tommorow and if it heads towards 2.2 will probs invest if not no bet for me. can you really trust barca with an unders trade i'm not to surePlain
By:
Andriy
When: 17 Apr 12 22:03
Not sure if it's worthwhile leaving a free bet/ zero situation; just green all-round level as standard as a matter of priciple for a prematch trading philosophy, even if just a few quid.

Since tonights seemed a much better Under bets than tomorrow, i'd be inclined to leave it; there will probably be so much big support for Barca that there's probably little gain, maybe just a few ticks. Also Chelsea are a bit shorter than Milan were at home to Barca, and i'd say AC are a better team. Personally i just want to enjoy the match and hope Chelski get a whipping, with Abramovich realising the trophy is still light years away, regardless of how many managers he changes or players he buys.
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Apr 12 22:09
like your thinking andriy probably guna leave under 2.5 myself unless it drifts at sumpoint tommorow heading for 2.2+. not taking 2.1 its not good enough.

good trading opportunities will find us no need to force the issueGrin

and also yeh come on barca!!!!
By:
thebert
When: 17 Apr 12 23:29
I'd leave the unders alone for tomorrow smithy. Well done again tonight though. Think Spurs is defo the trade of the moment.
By:
thebert
When: 17 Apr 12 23:32
Not too sure Arsenal should be 2.12 against Chelsea on saturday after that performance last night but i guess a lot depends on tomorrow night so will wait until after that.
By:
smithy91
When: 18 Apr 12 22:00
evening guys and thebert i think you are spot on with the arsenal vs chelsea game.

my second trade for the weekend is laying arsenal at home to chelsea with 1k at 2.1.

under di matteo chelsea have lost 1 in 13 games are in great form and have just seen of barca with a resolute display. this for me is another low risk trade arsenal just cannot go off at odds on for this i would price them up at 2.3 minimum.

ino chelsea have played on wednesday and arsenal have played on monday but arsenal got beat at home to WIGAN and chelsea beat the champions of europe.

will monitor under 2.5 on both europa league ties but looking at current odds i doubt theres a decent trade available unless there is a drift at sumpoint tommorow. remember we hold the aces with the unders trades we only wait for the right price as theres plenty more were these come from.

prepare banks for sum weekend unders trades too most likely looking at the minute will be arsenal vs chelsea, bolton vs swansea and the late kickoff qpr vs tottenham. good luck everyoneGrin
By:
Eldo
When: 18 Apr 12 22:28
Good evening Smithy91,
Excellent thread mate. Just found it - despite this being a new a/c for syndicate purpose - I have been trading on here for 7 years but work full time. Absolutely no ambition to do this full time as I really enjoy working and love the dynamics of teamwork. I just wanted to say well done on your pre match trades which is something I have been doing for 2 yrs now with "Reasonable" success. I also look at the CS market for trading with scores I feel out of line. Laying unquoted and backing it is a regular feature for me. Funnily enough I also think the QPR V Spurs game is a stand out lay on match odds and layed @ evens 2 days ago - I think your 18 tick movement is difficult to achieve on a regular basis and I look to lay off 5-6 tick profit. If it is OK with you I am happy to contribute with what I feel are value pre match trades. I wish you well my friend. Cheers. Keep up the good work.
By:
smithy91
When: 18 Apr 12 22:42
hi eldo thanks very much and best of luck to you. well done laying spurs i think its a great bet and i find it interesting you trade any unquoted in play can be very profitable correct score play when a massive odds on favourite is expected to steamroller opposition but finds it much harder work yet any unquoted is always the favourite in the correct score market. this is one of the ways i built my bank to pre off trade.Grin

feel free to contribute your trades aswell others do if we can build a network of shithot football pre off traders next season will be even better than this one.
By:
Eldo
When: 18 Apr 12 23:02
No prob. I will be happy to contribute as and when. Yes laying unquoted has to be selective - I would never touch a high odds game and generally speaking I am green within 10 mins max. I also look to trade Horses pre off generally back to lay and study the timeform in running cards for horses that trade lower in running on a very regular basis - again I look to be out before the race - I do like going in play on various sports as the value can be so good and often there is opportunity to trade. My first insight in to trading was " don't be afraid to lose". By that I mean there is so much value in laying low and backing high in play -the small losses are inevitable and there are too many to mention for me - but on the flip side - there are the memorable trades that went according to plan - just an example - last week 20 minutes in to the Southampton reading game I backed the over 3.5 goal market for £70 profit with a liability of £15. I really was prepared to accept the loss but prepared to trade anything from £30 profit. Once it was 2-1 I was out with £55 -there is little downside if you lay low back high - you cannot go far wrong. So yes I trade pre off - stress free but in play is also stress free if you go against the grain. Good luck. Will speak soon.
By:
thebert
When: 18 Apr 12 23:43
I really wasn't sure which way the market would react in the Arsenal v Chelsea game after tonight, so I haven't yet done anything.

I was thinking that a big Barca win would shorten the Arsenal price but wasn't too sure. I am kind of surprised that Arsenal have shortened after Chelsea winning but this is probably something to do with the expectation that Chelsea will be drained after more or less 90 minutes of defending.

If I can lay at 2.04 i'll take that. It is a very important game for Chelsea despite it being unfortunately sandwiched in between the two Barca games, and Arsenal weren't at their best the other night.
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