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As i wrote that Arsenal got bashed in a bit, could possibly lay at evens.
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Hello there
The reason why Arsenal's price has come in a bit is because they lost. It means that their 3rd place is less secure so they will have to raise their game for the chelsea game. If they had won that game the Chelsea game wouldn't have been so important as they could have afforded a loss more. With Chelsea beating Barca they will believe they have a chance and will be even more focussed about the tuesday game. Had they lost convincingly at the bridge, their priorities would have completed shifted and they would be much more committed about giving everything to try and secure 4th spot. It's not the form but people's perception of the importance of the game for the 2 clubs that has moved the prices. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Spot on U A was going to post the same,its a price that does look wrong but for the reasons given and Chelsea may rest a few i would be surprised if the Arsenal price drifts back to the 2.12 mark.
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Chelsea can't really afford to rest players though, can they? Drogba probably won't play but i can't see any major changes, would be disastrous if Chelsea didn't finish top 4.
I do agree with what you're saying though UA about perceptions on the importance of the match. Layed at 2 and 2.02 so i'll be hoping for 2.1, perhaps 2.08. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Also the time between the games: last night was very intense and demanding for them right through the 95 minutes, and ko at Sat lunchtime, rather than the usual Sunday game that may be normal after a Wed Euro game may have an impact.
Drogba who normally does well vs Arse is possibly only going to be on the subs bench with Torres starting, which may effect their goal expectation in some way. However, given Chelsea's current siege-like mentality and form, i think Arsenal will probably drift again close to the match; Evens for them to win a big game like this... yuck. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I think Torres Essien Kalou and Sturridge may all play,would be difficult for the old guard to play 3 tough matches in such a short space of time.
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just caught up smithy lad. trades looking ok for weekend?
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hi guys just got back from work i have layed arsenal again today at 2.02 for 1k. so got £2100 liability at the moment on arsenal just cannot see them going odds on. its too close a call between the two sides for them to be odds on for this fixture. both teams need to win.
i have looked at everyone's thoughts and everyone seems to agree that arsenal are to short but the market may not agree. i am hoping not to be caught out on this fixture so a drift on arsenal before the team news would be ideal if not i may be caught out. will be interesting to see what happens. also unders is taking shape at around 2.1. this could certainly be hammered in to 2 at 45-60 min before kickoff ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Large move on Unders for both Europa games, particularly Sporting v Bilbao when the team was announced.
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cheers for info andriy wish i piled on unders at 2 in athletico game but oh well noted prices down move onto weekend unders should get some nice trades there instead
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These are my Odds from my ratings
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thanks tobermory interesting prices mate. if arsenal are 2.3 at kickoff i will be very happy. if tottenham are 1.79 at kickoff i will be hanging from my bedroom ceiling with a rope round my neck
.i have not made a single penny this week so far as the only trade was bayern vs real madrid and put the green on unders which got smashed after a 90th min winner from mario gomeless. that should change this weekend as i have found trades galore. i will post up what prices i get on at put these are the markets i am looking at trading. i hope to have something matched in each by the end of today and definetly by tommorow morning. arsenal vs chelsea layed arsenal with 1k at 2.02 and 1k at 2.1 arsenal vs chelsea get on under 2.5 at anywhere between 2.1+ and should deffo get a nice green before kickoff. swansea vs bolton get on under 2.5 at anywhere between 2.14 and 2.18+ hoping for 2 at kickoff. dortmund vs mgladbach under 2.5 between 2.2 and 2.3 looks tidy could be smashed in before kickoff tottenham vs qpr layed tottenham at 1.98 with 1k (not totally confident with this one) tottenahm vs qpr under 2.5 at 2.18 interests me could be shorter at kickoff. good luck people hopefully will be a goldmine ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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need some help from any pre off football traders. what should i do with my totenham lay? do people think they will drift or be backed in? i can't decide but highest bookies price is evs at betvictor. might cash this out early to concentrate on some of the better trades i have.
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I'm having the same thoughts about the Spurs lay but i'm guna stick with it for a bit. I really don't think they should be odds on, haven't won away in 2012!
Interesting unders trades there, definitely think the prem ones should be successful. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Great Thread Smithy well played pal, keep it up...rarely on the General betting forum nice to a good thread doing well
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Hi - good thread here, makes a change from the idiots on the football forum. Smithy - well done on getting most of your trades right, but what happens if your predictions go wrong - e.g. if arsenal actually go odds on tomorrow do you trade out for a loss before the game or risk it and go in play?
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hi bergkamp, thebert and graham poll (good ref) nice one for the comments.
yeh graham poll with trades that go wrong have a look back through the thread and there has been some long debating over whether to trade out before kickoff or whether to risk in play. i have scooped some big wins in the last few weeks whilst the thread has been going from letting trades go in play but there is every chance i will be caught out soon so the rule now is all trades are traded out before kickoff for a green or red. the under 2.5 goals trades have been so prolific i have only had to trade out for a red once before kickoff all the rest i have been green at kickoff or broke even. i am pretty confident about tommorows trades. the best decision i ever made was not to put this in the football forum would be a nightmare stuck in the pile of free money threads ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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morning guys hoping for a nice profit today this is were i stand on the trades at the moment.
arsenal vs chelsea backed under 2.5 with 1k some matched at 2.1 and the rest at 2.12. bolton vs swansea unders was hammered in to quickly for me to get anything matched started at 2.14 into 2.04 but poor liquidity as well so this is a non runner now. dortmund vs mgladbach unders ranging from 2.2 plus will be fully matched today when liquidity improves. qpr vs tottenham under 2.5 now 2.2 plus which is great should be fully matched at sumpoint today before the expected drop at kickoff. ![]() movers overnight included my team blackburn backed from 2.16 into 2.06 we are terrible but we need to win so thats probably why. also villa backed in from 2.48 to 2.24 at home to sunderland![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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funds are currently waiting at 2.24 qpr vs tottenahm under 2.5 please get matched
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arsenal and spurs begining to slightly drift BOOM!
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god qpr vs spurs unders backed in from 2.22 into 2.1 without all my dosh being matched.
is someone catching onto me wel annoying ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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traded out of arsenal lay before team news 2.06 evened out no profit no loss. had a feeling the changes could be made arsenal 1.95 now
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followed your advice on unders for arsenal v chelsea, backed at 2.1 laid at 2 for nice pre game profit. didn't do qpr v spurs but noticed you would have made even more then (currently unders at 1.95) - well done smithy
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Nice drift on Spurs.
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boom green on unders and big drift on spurs nice. will update results tommorow off out on night out
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1-0 QPR as i type
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hi guys liverpool vs west brom under 2.5 at 2.4 is to big it was 2.2 yesterday and looks out of line with bookies prices am on
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fully matched at 2.38 boom this should drop
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2.38 still available and excellant liquidity confident of drop. good luck people
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liverpool backed into 1.41. were do you liverpool backers get your money from. do you take a loan out before every match then take another out when they draw the next home game?
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oh my god man city are 1.22 to win at wolves after utd's slip up. really £100 to win £22 not for me. only two wins away this year. this could be a dream day for bookies
.wolves trading at 17 they won this fixture last season and showed signs of improving with a 0-0 draw at sunderland. i know what i'd rather put money on. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ABSOLUTELY SEETHING!!!
this has been a nightmare weekend for my trades still show a profit but only because of the tottenham drift and unders in that game everthing else went tits up. this is me at kickoff in liverpool vs west brom. under 2.5= -£36 over 2.5 = -£30. the good thing with the unders trades is that you can get out with minimal damage when they go wrong. thought i would be looking at 2.3 for under 2.5 at kickoff but instead was 2.46 ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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just layed man city at 1.2 for £20 liability just to finish off the weekend. rarely do i bet in play but i have never seen an away price like it.
not bothered if city win just a value punt for me. ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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this is hilarous wolves better side so far and their 20/1
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new position in wolves vs man city
wolves =+£200 the draw=+£200 man city= -£29 city have hardly had an attack in second half | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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well not much profit earned this week but its still 13 consective winning weeks. an incredible weekend of prices. arsenal 1.91 at kickoff against in form chelsea, spurs odds on to win at qpr even though no wins in their last 7 away outings (now 8), man city 1.18 in play to win an away game, a premier league team 20/1 on home turf, liverpool backed into 1.41 and turned over yet again. also the correct score market wolves vs man city priced any unquoted scoreline at 2.94 at kickoff. surely 0-2 ,1-2, 1-3, 0-3 where more likely scorelines. but this is why we can continue to make money and also the crazy pre match swings
keep occuring. ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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the bolton vs swansea under 2.5 market was a non runner as the price got hammered in before i could get on, and the dortmund vs mgladbach under 2.5 had no liquidity in and was impossible to get 1k matched hours before kickoff so no bets on these 2.
arsenal +£0 the draw +£0 chelsea +£0 i traded this one quite well considering. i mentioned earlier in thread i wanted to get out before team news came out and thats what i did and it was a good move to lay twice by topping lay up at 2.02 which enabled me to get out unscathed if i hadn't have topped up i would of lost some. arsenal vs chelsea under 2.5 =£0 over 2.5 = -£10 this market wasn't helped by arsenal being backed in and when the drop failed to occur around 45-60 before kickoff thats usually the signal to get out. liverpool vs west brom under 2.5 = -£36 over 2.5 = -£30 this was also a nightmare and left me seething. everthing added up to make me confident this would drop an hour before kickoff and with the amount of trades i have done on this market i felt confident but the only reason i can think of why it did'nt is that liverpool were so short in the match betting and this affected the goals prices making them drift instead of coming in. bayern vs real madrid under 2.5 =+£60 over 2.5= +£0 tottenham vs qpr tottenham = +£67 draw = +£66 qpr = +£66 tottenham vs qpr under 2.5 = +£50 over 2.5 +£50 this was equally as fustrating. i noticed a **** in the market so managed to get a few hundred matched at 2.2 only for the rest to be unmatched and price crashed to 2.1. got some more matched and then price was 1.92 at kickoff a massive 28 tick movement much more than i expected. so of won more on this. wolves vs man city wolves =+£200 draw =+£200 man city = -£29 can't accept any team being 1/5 for an away league game so had a lay for a smallish liability. could of been a different story if wolves had a bit more firepower. overall profit =£51 hope for much better next week that profit is certainly not worth the hours spent watching the markets but suppose i was due a fustrating week ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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"West Ham the top CCC team away from home with 12 wins - desperately need the win to have a chacnce of edging out the Saints on automatic promotion, Leicester nothing to play for"
written by well respected forumite green army. jumped on west ham at 2.6 and layed at 2.3 nice work again green army. leicester =+£120 the draw=£120 west ham = +£144 but guys not finished yet. i have 1k on under 2.5 at 2.22 as this looks to high and could drop before kickoff in my opinion. low risk trade. good start of to new week hope theres more to come ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Tomorrow, Villa-Bolton Unders may come in a bit, currently 2.0 but wouldn't surprise me if was close to 1.9 at the off.
Next Monday the Manc derby: are unders (looks to be near 2.2 at the moment) going to steam like other top of the table clashes; i'm not so sure in this case, since the draw is less of a likely outcome with Man City maybe having to go for absolute broke if teams are still drawing late on. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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hi andriy mate think your spot on there. can we really afford to trade unders in city vs utd? well both games so far this season finished 1-6 and 2-3 so people will expect goals plus city need to win so will have to attack. no bet unless price goes 2.3 plus i won't be investing as its not low risk enough and better opportunites will arise.
i have left some money at 2,1.99.1.98 and 1.97 to back under 2.5 in villa vs bolton relagation battle should come in before kickoff. a good start to the week with west ham winning that was £140 although this was me on over/under market leicester vs west ham over 2.5= -£25 under 2.5 -£28 LOST. a good profit overall hopefully more to come this. week west ham backed in from 2.74 to 2.18 at kickoff incredible swing but thats what can happen at this time of season. best of luck people ![]() |