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am i the youngest formumite on here?

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By:
thebert
When: 24 Apr 12 17:56
Good work again at the weekend smithy.

I would agree with Andriy about the manchester derby, under will probably go off a little bit under 2.2 but not much. The Villa Bolton though should be a good trade.

As a city fan i'm already shítting it about the game. Can't wait at the same time though, the atmosphere will be immense especially with it being at night.
By:
smithy91
When: 24 Apr 12 18:09
nice one the bert and good luck against man u.

who on earth is holding under 2.5 up in villa vs bolton.

villa not scored in 3 hours 58 mins bolton one goal in last 3 it will probs be 0-0Laugh
By:
smithy91
When: 24 Apr 12 19:37
boom a good week so far this is me at kickoff villa vs bolton

under 2.5 = +£60 over 2.5 =+£0

backed chelsea at 5/2 at VC to qualify layed on here at 3.1 so a little arb there but VC  only allowed $40 bet tight ****
By:
thebert
When: 27 Apr 12 14:34
What do you thinking of this weekend's unders trading smithy?

Everton v Fulham caught my eye at first from a stats point of view but then Everton are flying atm and obviously come off the back of scoring 4 at OT!

Elsewhere Wigan v Newcastle may be one to take a look at. Newcastle are keeping clean sheets for fun and Wigan's current formation is on the defensive side. Currently at 1.96/2.04. If i can get 2.02 I think it could be a winner. Might let the market form a little at first though.
By:
Andriy
When: 27 Apr 12 15:19
I think Wigan v Newcastle will go the other way with Overs being backed, Newc have been well backed with Overs in most recent matches.

Unders may be backed in Sunderland v Bolton though, may well go down to about 1.9 as per the Villa Bolton game.

Next Tuesday: Bolton v Spurs. Again Spurs may be too short in the match odds (market not really formed but could be less than 2.1) with a subsequent drift given their current dismal form. Unders trading also very likely.
By:
smithy91
When: 27 Apr 12 15:31
hi thebert i am back to smash some weekend value. around £100 up for the week would like more with two holidays coming up and my car MOT.

the value for me dosen't just lie with unders trades this weekend. the other day i jumped on man city at 2.3 with 1k back. reasons being some bookies already odds on, 16/17 home wins in prem this season, in form with utd out of form. just think all the punters who have a losing weekend and come to see the odds on monday in my opinion will pile on city drive down the price and we can make a profit before kickoff. in my opinion city could be 11/10 at kickoff.

under 2.5 is currently trading at 2.3 in man city vs utd and i did say earlier in the thread that this could be worth taking if we get 2.3 plus so i will be keeping an eye on that and aiming to get the highest price possible with a drop coming 1 hour before kickoff.

i have layed arsenal at 1.91 with 1k at stoke. i have done this as liverpool,tottenham,chelsea, man city and man utd have all left the brittainia without three points and arsenal have lost 3 of there last 4 at stoke. walcott and arteta are out for the season and arsenal have dissapointed in their last two fixtures. this is just the type of fixture arsenal mess up on they have lost 7 of their 17 away matches this season and should not be odds on i am hoping punters latch onto this.the one downside is stoke were beaten at newcastle last week and played poorly, much better at home though.

there could be other trades which come up buts thats what i have so far.Grin
By:
smithy91
When: 27 Apr 12 15:35
cheers for input guys. spurs have not kept a clean sheet at bolton since 1964 a run stretching back nearly half a century. i layed a spurs clean sheet last year and game finished 4-2 bolton. more of the same could be in orderGrin
By:
thebert
When: 27 Apr 12 16:07
Yeah i agree there doesn't really look to be that much exciting with unders this weekend, thanks for that info on Newcastle Andriy.
By:
smithy91
When: 27 Apr 12 19:38
third trade is here guys: backing chelsea at odds of 1.48-1.5. why?

don't normally take odds on sides but think there is a touch of value here. i reckon chelsea will be 1.4 come sunday kickoff. this will leave me with around £80-£100 green on a home win which would be delightful.

now lets throw in QPR'S away record. they are 20th in the away table QPR    P17    W3    D2    L12.

now lets throw in chelsea's home record Chelsea    P16    W10    D3    D3.

yes chelsea played in the champions league but will they rest players or carry on chasing that champions league spot i think the latter.1.48-1.5 looks fair value to me. good luck peopleGrin
By:
tobermory
When: 27 Apr 12 22:34
My Ratings produced these odds for the weekend

. Home Draw Away .
2.03 Everton 3.59 Fulham 4.37
4.34 Stoke 3.70 Arsenal 2.00
1.99 Sunderland 3.67 Bolton 4.45
1.99 Swansea 3.67 Wolves 4.45
2.36 West Brom 3.39 Aston Villa 3.55
2.99 Wigan 3.28 Newcastle 2.76
4.21 Norwich 3.66 Liverpool 2.04
1.42 Chelsea 5.13 QPR 9.90
1.41 Tottenham 5.47 Blackburn 9.39
2.13 Man City 3.60 Man United  3.92
By:
smithy91
When: 27 Apr 12 22:47
nice one tobesGrin it seems like i am in full agreement with your ratings this week. if those are prices on chelsea, arsenal and city are there at kickoff i will be very rich manLaugh.
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 09:33
guys this is my position in norwich vs liverpool now. just woke up to find liverpool 1.92 from 2.1 earlier in week although i missed that they are still evens at paddy power and stan james which means an arb is in order and probably the end of my bookies accounts.

1k lay on liverpool at 1.93. 1k back of liverpool at paddy power leaves me like this.

norwich =+£0 draw =+£0 liverpool=+£70.

Grin
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 10:23
Norwich =+£0 draw=+£0 liverpool=+£20 CryCry commision charge
By:
thebert
When: 28 Apr 12 10:39
How the fúck are Liverpool 1.91 at Norwich!!! It's ridiculous.
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 10:41
happens every game the bert i don't like backing them as there never value but great team for trading purposes
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 10:41
happens every game the bert i don't like backing them as there never value but great team for trading purposes
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 10:47
now my football season has finished for saturdays i can trade 3pm kickoffs more sufficiently so swansea vs wolves under 2.5 at 2.4 looks high to me when some bookies have unders at 1/1. 1k on around 2.4 should give a nice trade if odds drop around kickoffGrin
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 11:28
wow liverpool 2.1 into 1.81 WTF. its time to start backing this lot earlier in week regardless of whether they are valueShocked
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 11:35
just layed liverpool at 1.82 with 1k absolute joke price. hoping there will be some sanity in the market and by kickoff they head back towards evens but won't put my life on it they do.Grin
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 11:57
liverpool currently trading at 1.71-1.72 for game against fulham on tuesday i will fly into that later on tonight as it will probs be 1.6 at kickoff tuesday agree people?Grin
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 11:59
BOOM unders plummeted in swansea vs wolves 2.4 into 2.32Cool
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 12:07
LMAO the cashout button on under/over 2.5 in swansea vs wolves says take £16 when i can do this. under=+£50 over=+£50.
not trading this yet could hit 2.2 at kickoff people must of remembered wolves last away game was 0-0 and swnasea are a big unders team at home
By:
Andriy
When: 28 Apr 12 12:46
But it's the FA Cup final next Saturday, so that will mean the big players on the bench on Tuesday. However, the way they seem to always get backed, maybe it still won't make a lot of difference.
By:
thebert
When: 28 Apr 12 12:48
I really can't get my head around Liverpool being backed in all the time. Every week the price looks short and then just gets shorter!
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 12:56
you could be right andriy maybe leave because of fa cup final could be dodgy with team news.

thebert as traders we can use liverpool to our advantage and just follow the trends back to lay. can't believe i got 1k at paddy power even money now into 1.82 on hereGrin
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 12:59
just cashed out arsenal lay to break even they just don't seem to be drifting although i do fancy stoke to turn them over. money to be made elsewhereGrin
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 14:11
wow wigan are favourites to beat newcastle glad i dint trade that game or i would have a bad red positionGrin
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 14:56
chugging along hopefully reach my £200 weekly target. need help from sunday and monday game though.

swansea vs wolves under 2.5 =+£30 over 2.5=£30
By:
mrfishfingers
When: 28 Apr 12 16:03
Smithy do you use software to track trends?
Or do you just act on hunches that prices will drift etc?
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 16:15
don't use any software pal but is something i might look at doing in the future.

yes i act on hunches that prices will come in or drift plus look for wrong prices, coupled with which way i think the market will go and also trends that occur in the under/over 2.5 markets which i have learnt from trading lots of these markets pre off.
By:
mrfishfingers
When: 28 Apr 12 16:35
Interesting, sounds like you're doing v. well.
Liverpool odds do seem to crash  pre-game almost without reason, the Newcastle game at St James' was bizarre odds movement, good shout on Fulham.
GL
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 16:40
nice one yeh i make sure i get liverpool on my side from now on. i won big on that newcastle game but that was only because i left it in play. looking to liverpool vs norwich attempting to lay unders at 1.8 with all the goals around today could get backed in.
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 16:41
i meant back overs at 1.8Happy
By:
smithy91
When: 28 Apr 12 16:48
just been fully matched backed overs at 1.78 with all the goals around today this could well come downGrin
By:
The Prophet
When: 29 Apr 12 12:00
Just seen this thread and it's right up my street. I love hunting value tooHappy

Good stuff smithy and all...keep up the good work.
By:
smithy91
When: 29 Apr 12 14:19
slowly but surely creeping towards the £200 weekly target.

norwich vs liverpool =   norwich =+£0 draw=+£0 liverpool=+£20 this was due to the 1k bet i managed to get evens on liverpool at paddy power. after commission and the price drove into 1.8 at kickoff me topping up lay again at 1.82 and having to back at 1.78 at kickoff i finished like this. not worth the ballache of plowing a grand into paddy power for £20 quid i suppose if it wernt for commision would of had worthwhile win and a great arb.

norwich vs liverpool  under 2.5=+£0 over 2.5=+£20 now with this trade i did the opposite of what i usually do. i backed overs instead of unders and no sooner than i was mattched the price was drove into 1.72 after i got 1.78 unfortunately i held out for 1.7 and it didn't get there so had to take 1.76 at kickoff.

chelsea=+£17 draw=£0 qpr=£0

looks like i will be backing unders in city vs united now i have a feeling it will follow past trends between the top sides and drop an hour before kcikoffGrin
By:
smithy91
When: 29 Apr 12 14:22
nice one the prophet another keen value hunterGrin

will try and keep the profits coming but its hard work at timesHappy
By:
smithy91
When: 29 Apr 12 14:42
just played the markets at half time in chelsea vs qpr layed under 5.5 at 2.16 at start of half time was 2.24 for start of second half.

when there is a high scoring first half this tends to occurGrin
By:
smithy91
When: 29 Apr 12 15:59
also some shrewed trading in spurs vs blackburn.

under 2.5 looked like this back 3  lay 3.05
over 2.5 looked like this back 1.49 lay 1.5

i managed to back at 3.05 then as soon as matched took the 1.49 on overs which works out a profitGrin.

under 2.5=+£0.57 Laugh over 2.5=£9.33
By:
smithy91
When: 29 Apr 12 16:03
"liverpool currently trading at 1.71-1.72 for game against fulham on tuesday i will fly into that later on tonight as it will probs be 1.6 at kickoff tuesday agree people"

this is what i wrote last night liverpool now 1.61 and i am green already for tuesdayGrin
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