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am i the youngest formumite on here?

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Replies: 4,673
By:
CrowsEye
When: 14 Mar 12 13:03
I think we want proven forumites, Obama. Not Cheltenham newbies.
By:
smithy91
When: 14 Mar 12 18:34
hi trevh- nice one for posting mate. i saw your 5k profit from trading match odds the other month on football over 700 markets you must really know your stuff. after you said about looking back at previous in play trades i found that my big profits were all from in play bets so that is interesting although the majority of people who have posted say that all trades should be done and dusted before kickoff. this will be interesting to see where the profits come from the remainder of the football season. i was also wondering when you trade match odds do you leave all trades in play or are some settled pre off?

scara_manga- hi mate to be fair to green army he has given me three trades which have made an overall profit of £230. i do reasearch the trades and would not place them if i did not agree with him. i was pretty confident of getting a good trade because i knew the layers would not be able to offer 2.1+ on reading due to their excellent winning streak so was a low risk trade for me.
i do reasearch the trades and my only concern about this one was the fact doncaster got a point against west ham and played well but i felt readings winning run would of been enough to drive the price to odds on.Grin
By:
smithy91
When: 14 Mar 12 18:35
welcome to betfair obama hope you get a better start off than me and you might learn some stuff off this thread if you like football bettingGrin
By:
Trevh
When: 15 Mar 12 02:58
Hi smithy, yes I average over 700 markets per week, I try to get something matched in every in-play match offered by BF. I have several different strategies, but I make most of my money by straight gambling (letting them ride), but I will trade occasionally if a stupid opportunity arises i.e. someone lumps and dumps thousands at the wrong price which I can take and immediately offload for a profit.

you should keep very accurate records and analyse them every week, they do tell a story :)
By:
smithy91
When: 15 Mar 12 18:32
sounds like a good system you have trev h. i am keeping a record of all of my trades like you said need to see what makes most profit.Grin

as for tonight utd seem to be on the drift might trade out before kickoff. have layed any unquoted @7.4 in correct score market to win £200 ridiculuos price. man u away european games rarely see that many goals so why its favourite in correct score market is beyond me. but on the plus side its out to 9 already will look to trade out at between 10-12 for a nice green screen.the reason it has drifted by the way is because utd have gone 4-5-1Laugh
By:
smithy91
When: 15 Mar 12 18:59
beast of a trade. what a swing in the match odds bilbao in from 2.98 to 2.56 incredibcle scenes.

bilbao =+£100 the draw =+£100 man utd =+£100 Grin

finally kicked off the week now ready to trade the any unquoted in play hope for no early goals.
By:
smithy91
When: 15 Mar 12 19:18
traded out AU after 14 min @12 but got lucky after that open goal miss.

AU scorline=+£0  any other score=+£82

deffo should never of been 7.4
By:
smithy91
When: 15 Mar 12 20:58
£182 profit -£30 on reading game so £152 minus commission goin into the weekend hopefully find some other good trades like the utd one. they got absolutely mulleredLaugh
By:
southcoastvillain
When: 15 Mar 12 23:28
Well done Smithy

Couldn't Believe United trading around 2.5 before the drift.
By:
smithy91
When: 15 Mar 12 23:34
cheers mate well done yourself £600+ for the day.

was some of that from utd drift? was incredible i just saw it go from 2.5 to 2.56 and thought might get 2.6 and then it just kept going at a rapid rate then bilbao became favourites and i bailed out at 2.86. wish i'd of put more green on bilbao but not to worry.
By:
smithy91
When: 16 Mar 12 00:00
right just had a brief look at some match odds for this weekend. newcastle vs norwich this sunday and newcastle are 1.85-1.86 which equates to 5/6. checked the odds comparison sites and only VC have them at 5/6 most are 8/11 and the odd one at 4/5. at kickoff i believe newcastle will be closer to 1.75 than drifting to 1.95 as layers don't usually offer newcastle to big at home to the lesser teams. so i think its a low risk trade. if i am correct and i get 1.75 at kickoff will probably leave the £100 profit on the home win and perhaps if newcastle go 1-0 infront lay off then. one slight concern though is cheik tiote limped off against arsenal and will probably miss out.

the only other thing i have spotted is wigan at around 2.94. must be worth a lay purely on the basis they have one home win all season. west brom are becoming a tidy outfit away from home and are in form they have away wins at blackburn, newcastle ,stoke and wolves already this season. with this trade i am hanging fire for the time being as in form peter odemwingie has been ruled out for west brom but if wigan go any lower than 2.9 i will be investing, fancy west brom could be 2.5 at kickoff. gd luck pplGrin
By:
smithy91
When: 16 Mar 12 18:15
wigan's price has dropped so will be offering to lay 1k @2.84 so two trades this weekend.

the midweek fixtures next week look trades galore already so will be busier next weekGrin
By:
southcoastvillain
When: 16 Mar 12 20:50
Good luck Smithy

Yeah some of my winnings last night came from trading United.
By:
smithy91
When: 16 Mar 12 21:36
nice one southcoast i thought you only traded goal markets, well played. good luck to you to mate.
By:
southcoastvillain
When: 16 Mar 12 22:55
Most of my trading is in play but I do occasionally trade before the start.
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Mar 12 00:37
well hopefully you can pick up a few pre off trades on here  mate as theres guna be plenty in the midweeek matches after seeing the prices todayGrin
By:
Over2.5
When: 17 Mar 12 01:20
good thread
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Mar 12 09:22
nice one over2.5 mate. just woke up this morning and can't believe that wigan have drifted already to 3. layed them at 2.84. punters not interested in backing a team with one win at home all season. i am holding out for 3.1 at least now as in their last game wigan drifted like a barge in the lead up to kickoff against swansea. they were then beaten 2-0. hope sum people got on but apologies for the short notice did not expect that sort of movement overnight.
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Mar 12 13:56
wigan have not moved further out and i have a football match to play at 2 0 clock so trading out at 3 to leave me like this

wigan= +£0  the draw =+£80  west brom=+80  wigan's shambles of a home record leaves me with no option but to oppose them knowing my luck they will probably win todayLaugh.

always throw profit away in the 3pm kickoffs on saturdays due to football commitments but i love playing tooLaughCry
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Mar 12 17:14
lmfao 1-0 wiganCry
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Mar 12 17:24
1-1 GTFI paul sharner i love youLove
By:
smithy91
When: 17 Mar 12 18:16
smashed through the £200 barrier for the 6th consective week so going well with one trade still to go tommorow. got 1k on newcastle at 1.85 currently trading at 1.82 looking for 1.75 at kickoff. these are this weeks trades so far:

  reading =-£30 the draw =-£30 doncaster =-£30 LOST
  AU scorline=+£0  any other score=+£82 man utd vs bilbao WON
  bilbao =+£100 the draw =+£100 man utd =+£100 WON
  wigan= +£0  the draw =+£80  west brom=+80 WON

WON PROFIT=£232 minus 5% comm.

next week is guna be hectic lots of wrong prices as arsenal are strong faves to win at everton, under 2.5 in that game will be tradeable, my team blackburn are faves to beat sunderland but yet we only have four home wins and sunderland have won 10 out of 19 under o'neill, man city look big at 1.95 14/14 at home and unders in that game should also be tradeable. will be posting trades up when markets get some liquid inGrin
By:
southcoastvillain
When: 18 Mar 12 11:24
Newcastle trade is looking good!

Wigan looked unlucky, missed a few good chances!
By:
smithy91
When: 18 Mar 12 13:48
yes southcoast newcastle trade looking good mate i had a feeling norwich would drift 4.7 earlier in week seemed short now out to 5.4-5.5. if prices stay around same will be greening newcastle and will see how game plans out in play. in norwich look decent i will move some green over to them.

wigan dominated west brom got lucky there mate looks to me like they missed jonas olsson and peter odemwingie.
By:
smithy91
When: 18 Mar 12 16:49
newcastle stuck on 1.75 15 min before kickoff so i have taken this. they did go as low as 1.72 but unfortunately i was greedy and wanted 1.7. this is how i'm looking for the game:

newcastle =+£100 the draw =+£0 norwich =+£0

gone all out on newcastle so its pretty much a free bet going all on the magpies hoping for them to go 1-0 infront and can then perhaps have a saver on the draw. i cannot see norwich winning this so will avoid greening them hopefully will not backfire. come on you geordies!!!!
By:
smithy91
When: 18 Mar 12 17:19
pape cisse what a finish mate just what i needed this is me done for this weekend:

newcastle =+£90 the draw=+£60 norwich =+£0
By:
Andriy
When: 18 Mar 12 18:15
You actually seems quite good at this ...

a couple of points/views

- Are you always looking to close out close out so close to kick off? Since you probably can't always be at your PC (eg big price change fluctuation overnight), isn't it better to put in other open bets - backing Newcastle at 1.85 ish... maybe put in a partial lay at 1.75, another at 1.7 (staggering your lays), so that if the price does take a sudden dip and then bounce back, you get part of your bet covered? How many ticks do you expect a given price to drop by, and how many  does it actually drop by, do you keep a record of this type of information?
By:
smithy91
When: 18 Mar 12 18:17
norwich dominating 2nd half so need to take a new position

newcastle=£82.60 the draw=+£90 norwich+£30
By:
smithy91
When: 18 Mar 12 18:32
hi again andriy thanks for posting again. yes i generally look to trade out at kickoff as thats when the prices really start to move. and your right about not always being at my pc. i work all week so i do leave several open bets overnight to get matched and always try and get the best prices possible. for midweek matches i am normally able to watch the prices on my laptop at home although i do play football myself quite a lot. this affects me most on saturday afternoons when i have a football game at 2pm but sometimes have a trade for 3pm so have to trade out early like on saturday for the wigan match before i leave the house.

How many ticks do you expect a given price to drop by?

well depends on the match i would say on average its around 20 ticks. but the newcastle game i am trading at the moment was only 10 ticks but that is still £100 quid to do what you like with.

i have a really good memory of storing match odds from previous games and know trends which occur espcially in the english premier league. for example i explained how newcastle are always well backed at home against lesser teams. i know this because have watched previous markets this season where that has happened. so when i saw 1.85 on offer i checked straight away on odds comparison and only one bookie was offering 5/6 the rest were 8/11. so there should be more chance of price going to 1.75 than drifting to 1.95. therefore its a low risk trade and the worst case scenario is losing a small amount as there is no way layers can offer higher than 5/6 in this fixture.

i am leaving all my trades on this thread until end of football season so if people wana start following may as well do as there is only a couple of month left. i have a couple for midweek so will be posting them up later and explaining why i am trading them. hope this answers a few of your questions mateGrin
By:
smithy91
When: 18 Mar 12 20:59
reading =-£30 the draw =-£30 doncaster =-£30 LOST
  AU scorline=+£0  any other score=+£82 man utd vs bilbao WON
  bilbao =+£100 the draw =+£100 man utd =+£100 WON
  wigan= +£0  the draw =+£80  west brom=+80 WON
  newcastle=£82.60 the draw=+£90 norwich+£30 WON

  weeks profit=£314 minus 5% comm 5 trades four good and one bad but only lost £30 quid on that so did well to minimise losses.

i have the first two trades for next week ready if anyone wants to get on there is plenty of time to get cash on.

trade1: lay blackburn 1k @2.58. a truly shocking price in my opinion and i am a blackburn fan. our home record reads W4 D1 L9. So thats four wins from 14 home games not good. then if you look at sunderland's record since o' neill took over it reads played 18 W10 D4 L4. not bad at all. thats four defeats in 18. if i was to back blackburn to win this game i would be looking for atleast 3. with home advantage and sunderland playing at the weekend i wud price both teams up at 2.8 and thats the price i will be looking to trade out at. i have a season ticket aswell and might be heading down to ewood on tueday and if i don't get the price i'm looking for i  will watch the game from the stands and make an in play decision. the chances of not getting a trade in this match is very unlikely as we only have 1 clean sheet all season so sunderland will score.

trade2: lay arsenal 1k @2.42. another wrong price we have here as arsenal make the trip to goodison park. tottenham have more away points than arsenal this season and i laid them at goodison last week at 2.6 they were 2.78 at kickoff. so how can a team who has worse away form than tottenham be 20 ticks shorter for this fixture a week later. its beyond me. i have also explained earlier in thread how everton tend to be well backed for home matches this is a common trend. they have already beaten man city, chelsea and tottenham on home soil and i will be looking to back arsenal at an absolute minimum of 2.6 around kickoff. good luck with bets peopleGrin
By:
smithy91
When: 19 Mar 12 18:17
trade3: the trades are coming thick and fast and fast this week. backed man city with 1k at 2. man city's premier league home record this season reads 14 wins from 14 premier league games and going further back 19 home wins in last 19 premier league fixtures. so not bad city at evens i cannot see layers being able to offer much higher than this due to that record so it's a low risk trade again for me.

now lets get on to chelsea they have been an absolute shambles this season. so 3/1 to win at city is an absolute joke. yes they have a new manager but there seems to be some hype in the last week that chelsea have turned the corner. they have beaten two championship teams and scrapped to a 1-0 win over 10 man stoke. yes the result over napoli was a good one but were talking man city away now. anything around 1.9 or lower will be happy with here and will be greening city heavilyGrin
By:
Kal84
When: 20 Mar 12 14:37
Excellent read smithy. Good luck for this weeks trades
By:
nortons
When: 20 Mar 12 16:05
Smithy,we are approaching the time of the season when you have to be careful when one team is "safe" ie Sunderland playing against another who are in desperate need of the points ie Blackburn.I agree the 2.58 looked awful but knowing how the markets operate late season you will need to be careful.I doubt the above odds will resurface especially as ONeill has stated he will probably rotate with the F A Cup in mind.Good luck.
By:
smithy91
When: 20 Mar 12 17:51
nice one kal glad you enjoyed it mateGrin. i know you like your goals bets mate so over 1.5 has landed in every blackburn game league and cup this season bar one if you fancy gettin on. i am going to the game so am hoping for a goaless 10 min then i'm pilin on if game looks openGrin

nortons- you are right mate the fa.cup has definitively played its part in the match odds here. i should of waited overnight as when i woke up the night after i placed the lay price was 2.42 and i got 2.56. not sure wat am guna do yet might leave this one in play depending wat the odds do around kickoff but am going to the game so will be able to make an in play decision from the standsGrin
By:
Kal84
When: 20 Mar 12 18:37
Thats exactly the way I would play the blackburn game but have went for over 2.5 goals and 2-0 in leeds game for roughly equal profit. When you are at the match trading do you just use 3g on your fone? Easy to get connection? Its just I went to ibrox few months ago and was wanting to use betfair mobile but could not get connection. Not sure if its my phone or network thats the problem
By:
southcoastvillain
When: 21 Mar 12 17:13
Smithy, hope you got out of your lay on Blackburn last night?
By:
smithy91
When: 21 Mar 12 18:03
Hi kal over 1.5 came in just about haha feed the yak and he will score. i had some major problems with connection at the ground last night was unable to trade goals even though game was wide open in 2nd half and only managed to trade out of blackburn lay through using my mates phone. was a bit of a nightmare really but a good result for us that should see us in prem for one more year.Grin

hi southcoast yeh after 15 minutes i was out of the lay leaving me with £0 on each outcomeLaugh but atleast didn't encounter a big loss i would never leave a trade running until half time normally and i was at the game the first half was truly shocking i was at the bar after 30 mins nobody looked like scoring.

a big night of trades i have under 2.5 man city vs chelsea with 1k @2.16 waiting to be matched really hoping it will as odds tend to tumble around kickoff. also got the two others as you can see above so will be a busy one hope to get the week in profit again
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 21 Mar 12 18:10
blacpool v leicester odds on 1-1 score are flitting between 8.0 and 8.2, thats too big and will be 7.4, maybe 7.6 tops by kick off
By:
smithy91
When: 21 Mar 12 18:20
that sounds decent mate is normally 7.4 - 7.6 for a 1-1 in a closely contested match good luckGrin
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 21 Mar 12 18:22
yup its unusually high for some reason
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