General Betting
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am i the youngest formumite on here?
am i the youngest formumite on here?
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nice one have u done ok mate?
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Aye aye. You learn a lot.
I'm in the business so I'm on here almost every single day. Get some really good info from time to time too. |
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great stuff thats good to here what do you bet/trade on?
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Horse Racing & Golf. I don't trade, I feel it's akin to spread betting and I don't buy into the idea.
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k mate nice one for posting. good to know people my age on here doing ok aswell
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Smithy take a look at the thread Southend v Crawley on the 7th March,i made a few points on the thread which some think is garbage but having been full time on here for 8 years pre match trading is one of my main areas of expertise.
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k mate al take a look now
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you made a couple of good calls on portsmouth games there mate. you got anything today?
i backed under 2.5 in everton vs tottenham at 1.9 yesterday and can trade out now at 1.8 but might leave it till kickoff. |
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like yourself i put on a thread yesterday about Spurs being a lay around 2.60, now is too late i do most of my match odds trading the night before,and never worry too much if prices go against me in the short term.The major market moves take plce before 10.30 on a saturday.,its then you know if you have called right.
Obviously if the likes of Bale, Van Persie are suddenly missing then its a different story. I have all the figures regarding match odds prices at kick off but that alone is not enough,its not an exact science. I would not recommend letting losing trades go in play,take a loss and move on you will get stung. |
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Take a look at the Pompey match again today,being punted again and no amount of stats would point to the reason apart from the fact of them being continually underpriced.
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yeh mate gud shout on spurs you will see earlier in thread i have already layed them at 2.6 and they are currently 2.74 in the match odds so that is looking good. the unders trade also looking good and that's all i have this weekend.
these trades won't be going in play will probably start taking a loss on more trades instead of letting them run in play after the feedback i have recieved on here. |
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no dodgy in play trades this weekend
trade 1: backed fleetwood at 1.98 layed at 1.9 fleetwood +£80 the draw +£0 kidderminster+0 trade 2: layed tottenham at 2.6 backed at 2.76 everton +£60 the draw+£60 tottenham+£60 trade 3: backed under 2.5 at 1.9 layed at 1.78 under 2.5=+£70 over 2.5 =+£50 off to celebrate the 2-0 win over wolves now GTFI  |
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"i am looking at going full time one here by the time of my 25 th birthday so five more years of hard work learning the markets and increasing my knowledge until i have an edge enabling myself to do this."
Is this a wise career option? Just takes one control freak anti gambling goverment (a Harriot Harm-men: It's a social ill! Think of the children. And the wimmin! - You could just see it) to shaft things with tinpot regulation or enforce a per bet tax or a even change in policy by betfair and your life career plan could be wiped out, and you've then maybe a few years of "gambling in my boxers" on your CV. Compare also with all the governments across europe getting protections and/or control freaky about gambling. Like Belgium in this forum today. As much as people make money out of it is it wise life plan for someone in their early 20s?! |
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If it's what you really want to do and you don't like your day job, then go for it once you really believe you do it successfully. Why not as long as you are prepared for what might happen if it all goes t1ts up or if you do fail at it. Life's too short to not try something you want to do if you really do want to do it.(provided it's not illegal)
If you do have to return the job world at some point in the future, do what most other people do with their CV, just lie to make it look good, but remember to use the word embellish rather than lie. |
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thanks for all feedback guys. certainly won't be leaving me job yet will keep trading pre off and enjoying it while i can. see what the future brings for starters i will be in a mess when football season finishes.
no trades on today suffering from a hangover just guna chill and watch football |
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good things come to those who wait. thats why reading at 1.95+ is something not to be missed. will be 1.8 or lower at kickoff won 8/8 in last 8 games donny have 1 win in last nine. who's the money guna come for guys?
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wish exchanges were around 20 years ago
still ,you don't miss what you haven't had (if that makes sense)  |
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u jumpin on reading coach? i am very thankful to have found betfair at such a young age
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I wish I was on Betfair when I was 18! Unfortunately I didn't discover it until I was 24 back in 2006.
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I can do it semi-pro really, I don't trade so it's not entirely necessary for me to be sat in front of here the whole day.
The only reason I'd go pro is if I was making enough cash to sack off the normal working life. I'd just make some pre-off bets, play some games and hit the gym. Rinse and repeat. |
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hi investor if i make a quarter of what you make i will be very happy
.yeh i'd probably say i'm semi pro at the moment crowseye. making a few quid but not enough to go full time yet i reckon i'd be a fat slob if i was full time would have to play football more often to keep the weight off. i play football every satdy at 2pm this has been hampering some pre off trades in the 3pm kickoffs. last week layed charlton at 2.38 and was told they were 2.24 at kickoff  semi pro stuff. |
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my prediction for tommorow is reading to be backed from 1.97 into 1.8 hope i'm right.
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On what basis do you decide to leave
- a big green on one outcome, 0 on others (eg Fleetwood) or - green all round (Everton-Spurs) If it's just a trade to take advantage of expected price changes, isn't it more correct to go green all-round? Rgds. |
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Smithy91 you're just guessing what the market will do, the odds do funny things sometimes. They can go one way then come back again for no apparent reason. You said 1.95+ was not to be missed and it's gone out to 2.04
Backing Reading is the bet here as they have won their last 8 games and are flying while Doncaster are 2nd bottom (would be bottom if it wasn't for Pompey having 10 pts deducted). Doncaster also have injury worries over key players. |
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Doncaster's last 5 games - a good draw away to West Ham , beat Forest away , a good draw against 5th place brighton , draw at home against peterborough and lost to an injury time winner at leeds .I don't think that is bad enough form be backing Reading down to 1.8.
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Aye be between 1.95 - 2.00 at kick off.
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@andriy nice one for posting mate. when it comes to placing the green one i have traded out it depends on various things.
for example with the fleetwood bet the odds were 1.98 and 1.9 which i traded at which is not a massive movement. it left me with £80 which is not amazing and divided by 3 would of left £27 on each match outcome which is also not great so i decide that with the stats fleetwood have a good chance of winning so leave the green on them looking for the £80 win. the everton trade on unders i left £70 and overs i left £50. this is because i thought there would be more chance of seeing two goals or less as 9 out of last ten games at goodison park have followed this trend. the match odds trade from 2.6 to 2.76 left me with £160 to green with. i felt the game could go any way and the sum was big enough for me to equal each outcome up. hope this helps mate |
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@yomomma- nice one for posting mate. with what you are saying you are right. the price on reading went out to 2.04 which obviously would of been better for me to jump on at the better price but sometimes if you wait you miss the chance to get your wedge on at the price your after.
for example tottenham were 2.6 when i jumped on to lay and quite a few ppl came on here saying theres no way tottenham will be higher than 2.6 at kickoff. they were 2.76 at kickoff and did not once go below 2.6 after i had placed lay. so if i had waited i would of missed my chance to get the price i wanted. with the reading trade i just cannot see them at kickoff being higher than 2.1 so for me see it as a low risk trade.if i have to trade out for a loss i will because i know there will be more good trades to profit from. i have to jump on certain prices early as that is the best time when the market first comes out. for example earlier in season in prem fixture i layed man u at 2.4 on a wednesday and by kickoff satdy lunchtime they were 3.2 leaving me with my biggest ever profit from a pre off trade and i piled most of it on liverpool and draw due to only around 10 of last 130 matches at anfield have gone to the away side. |
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bad day at the office
reading =-£30 the draw =-£30 doncaster =-£30 hope for better trades later in week thought this one would be a good start to the week but not to be  |
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Remind me not to listen to your tips again.
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**** on mate £210 profit last week and £500 week before -£30 this week could be worse.
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Hello there Smithy91.
Regarding the Reading game have you considered, assuming that you think Reading are overpriced and are value, of having a position of 0 on Reading and a slightly bigger loss on the other two, (don't know the score at the time of writing as not relevant). The reason I suggest this is because you are actually having a commission free bet, something that is very rare indeed on betfair. Just a thought for you. |
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k cheers for that U.A that would mean though increasing the liability on doncaster and the draw though if i wanted 0 on reading wouldn't it pal?
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ok £30 down for week could of been worse if i had left a bigger red on doncaster and the draw so at least didn't follow my instints that reading were guna win and would of lost more after they were held 1-1.
this caught my eye two days ago and its man utd at 2.54 to win in bilbao. how can they be favourites to win in bilbao after they were completely outclassed by the spaniards on their home patch. i watched the game and was very impressed with bilbao. the reason why man utd are favourites for this game is because they are priced up on reputation. the reputation of coming back in situations like these, but they have only recovered two points from losing positions in the premiership this season and they needed to get atleast a point in Switzerland against basle and didn't have the quality to do it. the doubts i have for trading this match is that mugs will back utd whatever price they are obviously the fact they need to win to go through. But the prices are wrong from a betting perspective the first leg tells us this. i am leaving a 1k lay on man utd @2.54 looking to trade out at a more respectable price of 2.7+. but i would advise people not to follow me in with this one as i will be leaving it in play if the market goes against me and may even top up my lay if the price gets shorter. |
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i am leaving a 1k lay on man utd @2.54 looking to trade out at a more respectable price of 2.7+. but i would advise people not to follow me in with this one as i will be leaving it in play if the market goes against me and may even top up my lay if the price gets shorter.
I like your reasoning and confidence Smithy, but why bother greening up for 60 quid profit if it drifts? A value lay is a value lay, but you're only prepared to risk a substantial liability if it shortens? Why not if it drifts? One of my strategies involves similar methodology, and I used to think that taking the money (greening) when available was the most profitable method (because it is in theory - 6% profit before a ball is kicked is better than 6% profit riding on 90 unknown minutes, although you'll be hit by PC with the former) but when I analysed my results I discovered that letting all value bets run pays FAR more profit long term, avoids paying PC, and is less work. If you keep accurate records of all your bets have you analysed this? |
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Hence why I don't trade, Trevh!
You can never beat backing value odds and letting them run. Not in my eyes anyway. Trading is for ****, IMO. |
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When I say 'trade', I pretty much mean greening out at the first opportunity.
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Joined this morning, still 18
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Smithy , can I ask Did you research the Reading trade yourself? Did you watch the highlights of WestHam v Doncaster at the weekend? The bookies had it priced up at about 2 and it traded at 2 on here, which was about right .Yes Reading have good form but Doncaster aren't that bad , hence the draw was a probable result and why it didn't come into 1.8.
If you jumped on it because Green Army tipped it , then at least you have learned jumping on other people's tips can get your finger's burned , best to find your own trades as you seem more successful with them  |
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Im pretty sure there are some people who use the forum aged around 10.
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