General Betting
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My Football Lays.
My Football Lays.
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Lay of today wednesday:
Ipswich 3pts |
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might start by laying liverpool at man city 3.85 is a dream. 15 matches at home for city no defeats. keep going trader your doing a great job. Seem to remember a 'little' match on Sunday which affected these figures !! ?? !! ??
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Ipswich 7.20 WON +2.85
TOTAL TODAY: +2.85 THREAD TOTAL: +151.48 WON LAYS: 149 LOST LAYS: 54 |
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I will have to disagree with Trevh; if you started with a 2K bank and you layed to win $100 everytime, not only you would not have blown your bank at any time, but you would have aprox $7.000 (5K profit) by the 10th day, even after the 3 bad days (Days 7, 8 and 9) in which we had the biggest drawdown. Check my post in this very same page dated 03 Jan 12 02:53. You will see the profits and losses of each and every day since the start of the thread.
Trevh, please correct me if my above calculations are wrong. T11, apologies, a 2k starting bank would not have bust you are correct. My run down of your results to date show a £1990 profit after 5% commission staking to return £100 per lay, with several large drawdowns the largest of which would have been £943. ------------------------- --------------------------- Me :The points profit thing can be confusing, as staking at £1 per point but using say 10 points per bet and winning 10 bets would be described as returning 100 points profit, but in reality it's 10 points profit if you see what I mean. T11: You lost me there. For me 1pt is 1pt whatever value you want to give it $1, $10, $100 and so on. So, if you lay a team to win 5pts and your 1pts is $10, then you are laying to win $50. I don't find it confussing. What I mean by that is that laying to level stakes you're 19.9 points in profit so far, which I think is slightly better than your points total even though your way sounds a lot larger. For example, If I chose to play with £10 stakes and staked 10 points on each selection (the same as £100 per point) the results would read 10 times the actual amount at 199 points profit so far, £1 per point would show 1990 points profit, which sounds much better but is actually the same as 19.9 points when push comes to shove. Anyway, the bottom line is you're showing a nice profit so far, GL :) |
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Trevh,
I never intended to make the profit bigger than it really is, I would be cheating myself. All the lays and odds are right here on the thread for anyone's review. Since the very beginning I worked with the same staking plan in points, therefore the results are right there, it is up to the reader to give the 1 point the value they wish. Right now if your point is = $100 then your balance would be +$15.148 If your 1 point is = $10 then your balance would be +$1514.8 You mentioned before about a flat staking to win $100 everytime and I refused to adopt that plan, well you are not the only one to suggest it. As soon as I have the time I will take the time and do the maths from day 1 until now and see what I come up with if laying at level stakes to return $100 per lay. |
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One more thing, for those asking me if results are with or without commission...
Please, do some homework, if you see that I'm laying a team to win 10 pts and then I show the result as +9.55 it means that YES, ALL RESULTS AND CURRENT BALANCE ARE AFTER COMMISSION. |
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I know you're not cheating anyone T11, I was merely pointing out in a general manner that points profit can appear larger than they actually are.
When you have time your figure to £100 per lay should be somewhere near the same as mine above : 19.9 points profit (level stakes), which I believe is greater than your variable stakes method even though it sounds like less. |
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Sorry for late posting, couldn't get to the computer earlier.
3 minutes gone, still 0-0. Telstar 3pts |
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Great stuff Trader!
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Busy days lately... Made a killing on the championship today, couldn't post them though.
Anyway, couple of lays on the french teams: Valenciennes 3pts Toulouse 3pts |
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 well done T11 |
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Hi all,
This is a lenghty post with a lot of information. Those who follow the thread with interest, please read it thoroughly. Hi Trevh, Thanks for your feedback, always interesting. Well, I just finished an excel file to see the profits at Level Stakes, the results to date (Jan 14) are +24.8 points AFTER COMMISSION Which means that if you lay to win $100 everytime, your profit would be $2480 The results to date at Recommended Stakes are +160.03 points AFTER COMMISSION. If anyone wants to see the excel file, please send me a private message with your email address and I will send it to you. IT IS UP TO THE USER WHAT IS THE VALUE OF HIS/HER 1 POINT. As a guideline, I mentioned before that personally I'm using 0.3% of bank as value for 1 point. Current thread total stands at +160.03 points. This is a detail of different starting banks, followed by the 0.3% point value for that particular bank and the final balance for that particular starting bank after the 160 points profit: $100 $0.3 $148 $300 $0.9 $444 $500 $1.5 $740 $1.000 $3 $1480 $2.000 $6 $2960 $3.000 $9 $4440 $5.000 $15 $7400 $10.000 $30 $14800 BANK Since several people are asking on the forum or by PM about staking, points, losses and profits: From now on, and to make it easier for everyone, I will keep a record of the thread results, not only in POINTS profit, but also at LEVEL STAKES, and finally using a STARTING BANK OF $5.000 and the value of the 1pt will be 0.3% of bank ($15 to start, to be adjusted after every day starting today). I do not know until when will I continue posting the system selections, I will stop posting if job takes too much time and quality of picks is not good enough, or I don't have enough time to dedicate to this system (very time consumming), I will stop posting if results are not worth after 1.000 lays. This system is still being tested, therefore I do not encourage anyone to follow these picks with real money. If you do it, it is up to you. If you win a lot send me some donation  DRAWDOWNS AND UPSWINGS This is a list of the results of every lay so far. Here you can see all the drawdowns and upswings at LEVEL STAKES and AFTER COMMISSION. I think I have tweaked the system enough to avoid large drawdowns like the one mentioned by Trevh, which was 5 lost lays in a row. Currently we are going thru the largest upswing, 16 won lays in a row. Had several 9 won lays in a row in the past. -2.4 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -2.4 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -1.72 -1.52 -2.15 -2.2 -1.6 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -1.72 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -2.6 -2.05 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -1.72 0.952 0.952 0.952 -1.88 0.952 -1.42 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -1.98 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -2.4 0.952 -2 -1.36 0.952 0.952 -2 0.952 0.952 0.952 -2.95 0.952 0.952 0.952 -2.2 -2.5 -1.7 -2.1 0.952 -2.85 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -1.82 0.952 0.952 -1.32 0.952 0.952 -1.3 0.952 0.952 -1.66 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -1.66 0.952 0.952 0.952 -2.1 0.952 0.952 -3 0.952 -2.2 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -3.7 0.952 0.952 -2.8 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -3.8 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -4 0.952 0.952 -1.6 0.952 0.952 -4.8 0.952 -2.6 0.952 -1.06 -2.25 0.952 -2.1 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -1.34 0.952 0.952 0.952 -1.96 0.952 0.952 -1.92 0.952 0.952 0.952 -3.1 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -1.76 0.952 -2.45 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 -3.5 -1.44 -1.54 0.952 0.952 -3.8 0.952 0.952 -2.4 0.952 -3.4 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 0.952 Trevh says: For example, If I chose to play with £10 stakes and staked 10 points on each selection (the same as £100 per point) the results would read 10 times the actual amount at 199 points profit so far, £1 per point would show 1990 points profit, which sounds much better but is actually the same as 19.9 points when push comes to shove. It is really confusing and I don't know why you mix £ with points. In the case you mentioned you can stake 10pts, 100pts or 1000pts, obviously the results will read different. What really matters is the results it shows with my own staking plan and with level stakes, we will obtain 2 very valid different results. Again, you mix £ with points when they are totally independent values. Different people will apply different staking plans, giving their 1pt the value they feel comfortable with, or just going with plain and simple level stakes and again deciding the value of their 1pt at level stakes, for example laying to win $10, or $50 or $100 everytime. |
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Thanks KJPG and Zapper for your comments!
Results of last 2 days: Telstar 4.70 WON +2.85 Valenciennes 4.60 WON +2.85 Toulouse 7.0 WON +2.85 TOTAL TODAY: +8.55 PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +160.03 PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +24.8 WON LAYS: 152 LOST LAYS: 54 LONGEST LOSING STREAK: 5 LONGEST WINNING STREAK: 16 CURRENT BANK: $7.400 |
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have you worked out if laying to a liability set amount ,would be more or less profitable,instead of 10 quid - say 50 quid loss,so you stake as much/little to loose 50,
is it not worth seeing if this gives better results. just an idea |
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I'm not laying to a fixed liability of $10. Please read previous post. I'm laying with a staking plan to win 3pts, 5pts or 10pts.
What you are proposing is a staking plan of fixed liability of $50? Is that correct? |
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Too many messages asking for the excel file. Please be patient, I will email it to you all. If I can't, then I will try to upload it somewhere to be dowloaded. |
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If somebody who already got the excel file has a few minutes please send it to mare73@gmail.com
thank you |
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Today tuesday I'm laying:
Rochdale 3pts |
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For those who read this thread, I'm busy with work, which means I will still keep posting my selections as usual, but I will not have too much time to make calculations for the thread, the selection process is already very time consumming, so I will keep it simple and with round numbers for easy understanding.
Sorry if it confuses somebody. I made this thread for fun and to try this system, but work is priority. Therefore, for those who messaged me some time ago asking for a starting bank and a value for 1pt. Once again: Starting bank is $5000 (5K), and value for 1pt is 0.3% of starting bank = $15. Feel free to adjust these values to your own bank. I will not be adjusting the vale of the 1pt day after day like I mentioned in previous post. I don't have the time. I will keep it simple and constant at $15 per point. Those who prefer Level Stakes can give the 1pt the value they wish, $10, $50, $100, whatever. TOTAL LAST DAY: +2.85 POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +162.88 POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +25.75 WON LAYS: 153 LOST LAYS: 54 STARTING BANK: $5000 CURRENT BANK: $7.443 |
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Great work Trader.
Dont always post but following your thread and impressed with your results |
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Hi Hammerddh,
Thanks for your comments. Struggling later to find any selections, tempted to throw in a couple of almost qualifiers but will strictly stick to the system. Today I have Maastrich and AGOVV but they don't fit 100% into the selection criteria, will steer clear. |
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Discipline mate
If they dont fit ignore them and wait for next day. Thats what will bring in the steady profit |
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These are the lays for today saturday, few more to come later, lots of selections today:
H Berlin 1pt Stuttgart 1pt Millwall 3pts Brighton 1pt Bristol 3pts Portsmouth 3pts Hull 5pts Watford 3pts Walsall 3pts Tranmere 3pts Brentford 3pts Bath City 1pt Lincoln 1pt Hayes and Yeading 1pt Stockport 3pts |
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Aston Villa 2pts
Port Vale 2 pts Rochdale 2 pts Getafe 2pts Sevilla 2 pts |
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Correction, still 0-0, Bristol City above should read Doncaster. Sorry.
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And there you go, FFS, murphy's law. Upset because 2 days ago I left out 2 teams that "almost" qualified, and they went on to lose; today I stupidily decided to include 5 teams that "almost" qualified, trying to make some extra points, sure enough 3 of them won!!
I know, lack of discipline, lack of patience, greed, you name it. From this day I will not include any team that is not 100% "layable". If any given day I have to lay 10 teams, then I will, if I have no selections that day, so be it. H Berlin 3.60 WON +0.952 Stuttgart 5.40 WON +0.952 Millwall 3.6 LOST -7.8 Brighton 3.95 LOST -2.95 Doncaster 4.40 WON +2.85 Portsmouth 5.20 WON +2.85 Hull 4.0 LOST -15 Watford 6.40 WON +2.85 Walsall 5.0 WON +2.85 Tranmere 4.80 WON +2.85 Brentford 5.40 WON +2.85 Bath City 6.40 WON +0.952 Lincoln 5.40 WON +0.952 Hayes and Yeading 6.80 WON +0.952 Stockport 3.60 WON +2.85 Aston Villa 2.88 LOST -3.76 Port Vale 3.95 LOST -5.9 Rochdale 3.05 WON +1.9 Getafe 3.0 LOST -4 Sevilla 3.20 WON +1.9 TOTAL TODAY RS: -9.9 TOTAL TODAY LS: -2 POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +153 POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +23.75 WON LAYS: 167 LOST LAYS: 60 STARTING BANK: $5000 CURRENT BANK: $7294 |
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Sunday:
Parma 3pts Catania 3pts Zaragoza 3pts |
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Ok, clawed back the losses from yesterday at recommended stakes and made 1 point profit at level stakes.
Parma 3.40 WON +2.85 Catania 6.40 WON +2.85 Zaragoza 4.20 WON +2.85 TOTAL TODAY RS: +8.55 TOTAL TODAY LS: +3 POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +161.5 POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +26.75 WON LAYS: 170 LOST LAYS: 60 STARTING BANK: $5000 CURRENT BANK: $7422 |
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Nice going Trader, I have started mine again today, 1st lay is Leicester...just writing this and they go 1 up ;)
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off to a great start
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I think i shall lay Dag&Red tonight depending upon the market. Would this be one for you Trader?
All the best for today. |
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Hi onemanarmy,
Not the best start, but keep going. JonHig, yes, I'm laying Dag and Red today. The staking is very conservative today. Sticking 100% to my system, even to the staking suggestions. Today lays: Braintree 1pt Tamworth 1pt Dag and Red 1pt Forest Green 1pt |
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Sounds like you may be falling into the trap of protecting profits T11 (fear of losing). The main profit of the thread was made in the first few days using your then 10 point stakes. Profit for the last 7 weeks is 10 points, which could have gone either way.
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Braintree 8.0 WON +0.952
Tamworth 3.65 WON +0.952 Dag and Red 6.0 WON +0.952 Forest Green 4.40 LOST -3.4 TOTAL TODAY RS: -0.5 TOTAL TODAY LS: -0.5 POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +161 POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +26.25 WON LAYS: 173 LOST LAYS: 61 STARTING BANK: $5000 CURRENT BANK: $7415 |
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Friday:
Telstar 5pts Emmen 3pts |
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Telstar 5.20 WON +4.77
Emmen 5.0 WON +2.85 TOTAL TODAY RS: +7.62 TOTAL TODAY LS: +1.9 POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +168.6 POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +28.1 WON LAYS: 175 LOST LAYS: 61 STARTING BANK: $5000 CURRENT BANK: $7529 |
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Hi Trevh,
You might be right, I will stick to my 3pts, 5pts, 10pts staking plan. |
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I think I have been understaking lately.
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Saturday,
Wycombe 3pts Northampton 3pts Telford 3pts Newport County 5pts Tamworth 3pts Veendam 3pts |
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Bad day.
Wycombe 5.60 WON +2.85 Northampton 4.80 WON +2.85 Telford 8.0 WON +2.85 Newport County 4.40 LOST -17 Tamworth 3pts 6.40 LOST -15.6 Veendam 6.80 WON +2.85 TOTAL TODAY RS: -21.2 TOTAL TODAY LS: -4.9 POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +147.4 POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +23.2 WON LAYS: 179 LOST LAYS: 63 STARTING BANK: $5000 CURRENT BANK: $7211 |