General Betting
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My Football Lays.
My Football Lays.
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Replies: 231
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I look into what your doing and it's going well. Do you not think it would be worth taking less selections though. You had 18 pick Saturday out of them surely you had a couple you were sure off and could focus you stakes on them
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Forgot to say its just an opinion not mocking the thread it's doing well
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Hi dbrf,
Opinions are welcomed, thanks. Main reason why I post my selection on this forum is I know my self and I don't have the patience to record the selections on excel, or I might lose the file, however if I post them in here they will be permanently recorded for my review in the future.. In regards of the number of selections, I just go ahead with whatever amount of picks my system throws at me. Saturday were 18, sunday only 3. About stakes, I don't want to lay anything higher than 4.0 The selection system gives me a lot of picks for teams between 4 and 6. I just disregard them because of the liability. Hence I consider this medium price lays to be a real challenge and see if I can continue profiting from it. |
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Hi Trader, I'm checking in on you every now and then. And I suspect there are many more silent readers (just look at the hits your thread has got).
I'd be interested to know your selection criteria. Not the details, but do you generate your own stats, or do you just glean them from other sites and collate them that way? If you do generate your own, do you have it automated in some way? |
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I look in on your thread occasionally ... and I am sure there are many others too.
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Hi ebasson and undern, thanks for your comments, it is encouraging to continue posting other than for my own records.
ebasson, I do not use my own stats, I take the data I need from different web sites. I need to know home team average goals at home, score of the last 3 games for each team, team news if any relevant, odds, a few other minor details and then I put everything together into a "formula" that will give me a final "lay this team" or "do not lay this team". Today lays: Roma Academica |
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This is the last time I lay a portuguese team. Steamed from 3.20 to 2.80, that should indicate something.
Roma 3.55 WON +9.52 Academica 3.20 -22 TOTAL TODAY: -12.48 THREAD TOTAL: +100.32 WON LAYS: 79 LOST LAYS: 32 |
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just started to look in Trader11 since DW stopped doing his thread....going well here but think you will have a long way to go to convince people and maybe best to keep it here .... look at the hits not the replies ....... good luck
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Hi all,
Really annoyed because of the portuguese game yesterday. Left me in the minus side for the day. WORD OF CAUTION AND NEW RULE FROM NOW ON: Any team that shows a steaming graph of 7 ticks or more 1 hour befor KO, will NOT be layed. This has happened to me before several times well before I started this thread. Even on November 30th it happened here on the thread and I removed that team from the list (sure enough it went on to win 2-0 just like yesterday). Thanks. |
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Surfer,
Thanks for your wishes, but sorry, I didn't quite understand your message: "think you will have a long way to go to convince people and maybe best to keep it here" Could you explain further? Thanks. |
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For today I layed Bromley at 3.40
10 mins to start. |
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Bromley matched at 3.30
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Good result today.
I should comment that the selection criteria avoided a few teams that won today. I'm happy with it and will try to continue looking for quality and not quantity. If the system tells me any given day that I should lay 20 teams I will lay them all, if it tells me to lay 1 or none then I will do so. Please those who are following this system, do not forget about the new rule posted above (avoid steaming teams). Bromley at 3.30 WON +9.52 TOTAL TODAY: +9.52 THREAD TOTAL: +109.84 WON LAYS: 80 LOST LAYS: 32 |
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great work Trader
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Thank you hammer!
For today wednesday: Stoke to win 5 points. |
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Stoke at 5.0 WON +4.77
TOTAL TODAY: +4.77 THREAD TOTAL: +114.61 WON LAYS: 81 LOST LAYS: 32 |
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Good going t11.
Any for tonight? |
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Hi Rasp, yes, these are the lays for tnight:
PAOK to win 5 points Braga Metalist to win 3 points |
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Hi all,
Good day today. PAOK at 4.10 WON +4.77 Braga at 3.70 WON +9.52 Metalist at 7.60 WON +2.85 TOTAL TODAY: +17.14 THREAD TOTAL: +131.75 WON LAYS: 84 LOST LAYS: 32 |
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Hi all,
For today friday, only 1 lay: Go Ahead Eagles |
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to win 5 points, that is.
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Well done Trader. Hope things continue in this vein for you.
Will be interesting to see if you're still doing this (and still winning) after, say, a thousand lays (he say, plucking a random number out of the air). Anyway, the point, I'm making (badly) is that it's early days to determine whether you have any kind of edge or not. Good luck. |
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For today saturday:
Reggina to win 3 points Gubbio to win 3 points Modena to win 3 points More to come later. Thanks. |
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Another one for today is:
Augsburg to win 3 points |
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Werder Bremen to win 5 points
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Doncaster to win 5 points
Millwall to win 5 points Coventry to win 3 points |
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gud stuff trader. Done a similar thing myself at the start of season laying around 20 teams a weekend with £100 on each one started with £2000.Mainly lays of teams i believed were to short in price. Another angle was to lay the top four in the premiership away from home plus spurs and liverpool who are priced up purely on reputation. This system made a lot last season but this season they keep winning away beacause there is a gulf in class and its not as difficult to win at places like stoke and blackburn. I reckon you can make a decent profit over the course of season but to up and down for me.In October i was up £1600 on the 15th and by the end of the month i was back down to £400
 .So i now lay correct scores instead which works better for me but its difficult not to bet when you see everton at 1.54 at home to norwich |
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Oldham to win 3 points
Huddersfield to win 3 points |
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Preston to win 3 points
Auxerre to win 3 points Toulouse to win 3 points Dijon to win 3 points |
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Why only 3 points? These french matches could be layed at max. 5. Auxerre @4.7 Touluse @4.8 Dijon @3.5
By the way, keep going, you are very good. Just found your thread 3 days ago. |
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Hi ebasson,
Totally agree with you. So far I have this sample (130 lays) plus 10 that I never posted, and yes, I agree, I want to see what are the results after 1000 lays or so. I believe the system I developed detects very good lays, problem is that laying higher than true odds is very difficult to make profit from. Other thing is that it is very time consuming to filter every single game. Smithy91, Agreed, it could be a rollercoaster if you don't have any staking plan in place, or if you don't use any other filter than "lay the 4 top teams away". Anyway, it is not easy laying teams. roadrunner, Fecking hell!! You are right and I made a serious mistake today when posting the picks today. I'm really mad, read below and you will see. Thanks so much for your comments, and welcome to the thread. |
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Hi all,
First I would like to apologize for the disorderly way in which I posted the lays for today saturday. I was very short in time today and there were so many games that I was trying to finish filtering them all thru the system, just trying to get it done before ko. Some got really complicated and I left them out. Sorry about that. I'm really pasionate about this system and I want it to work, I put a LOT of time and effort for it. Always try to post the picks on time. Second, fecking hell, as stated by roadrunner, the 3 points thing was a serious typo. If you follow this thread you will know that I only used the 3 points stake only once in 130 lays, and that was when I was laying a team above 5.50 For lays up to 4.50 I normally use a 5 to 10 points stake. I'm really sad and mad because of this mistake from copy/paste/post reply rush trying to get everything done before ko. Anyway, I will NOT change the results to a 10 points per lay, that would be unfair for the thread and the results, but I will settle all of saturday lays to a 5 point stake. For those of you who sent me private message asking about the picks format and staking plan, please read the thread. Anyway, here it is again: Like I said before, this is very time consuming, so, I don't have the time to post the names of both teams playing the match, or what time they are playing or what league they play. I post the name of the team to be LAYED, and if there are no words next to it, it means it is a 10 points lay, otherwise I always specify the staking. Example: Roma PAOK to win 5 points Meaning that we are laying Roma to win 10 points, and laying PAOK to win 5 points. Thanks all, and feel free to post or send your comments/ideas/questions. |
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Results of friday and saturday:
Go Ahead Eagles at 3.80 WON +9.55 Reggina at 2.28 WON +4.77 Gubbio at 4.50 WON +4.77 Modena at 4.70 LOST -17.5 Augsburg at 6.30 WON +4.77 Werder Bremen at 3.80 WON +4.77 Doncaster at 3.80 LOST -14 Millwall at 4.30 WON +4.77 Coventry at 4.60 WON +4.77 Oldham at 5.80 WON +4.77 Huddersfield at 3.30 WON +4.77 Preston at 4.80 LOST -19 Auxerre at 4.60 WON +4.77 Toulouse at 4.30 WON +4.77 Dijon at 3.50 WON +4.77 TOTAL TODAY: +11.52 THREAD TOTAL: +143.27 WON LAYS: 96 LOST LAYS: 35 |
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These are the lays for today sunday:
Arsenal to win 5 points Roma to win 5 points Villareal PSG to win 5 points |
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Hi,
Almost a perfect day. Slightly in the minus side today, but good enough for the weekend. Anyway, can't complain, even the PSG lay came in. Arsenal at 4.90 WON +4.77 Roma at 5.0 LOST -20 Villareal at 3.35 WON +9.52 PSG at 2.32 WON +4.77 TOTAL TODAY: -0.92 THREAD TOTAL: +142.35 WON LAYS: 99 LOST LAYS: 36 |
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Only 1 lay for today:
St Pauli to win 5 points |
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good stuff t11...beady eye
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Hi Lambeth,
Not so good today. Left out Birmingham for a slight margin, oh well, still tweaking the system, but in the past it avoided several winners, can't complain too much when laying at these odds. |
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Good stuff Trader11. Do you always keep your bets running for the full 90 minutes? I lay teams and often green out once a goal goes in. I'm not sure if long term this is a good thing but it makes me feel better!
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Hi Mariner,
Thanks! For this system yes, I leave the bets running all the time. However, if I'm watching the game and still draw at 75 mins, AND the layed team looks dangerous I will trade out, but that is a different story. For the sake of the system I'm trying out now, I do not green out. These are the lays for today tuesday: Hayes and Yeading 3 points Nancy 5 points Chateauroux 3 points Tours 3 points Nantes Le Havre 5 points Angers 5 points |