These are the lays for today sunday:


Braintree 3pts

Alfreton Town 3pts

Hayes and Yeading 3pts

Thanks doridoru!

Yes u want some, I have the lay on Hayes, probably they will void all bets. Not sure.

First, I would like to thank all of you who took the time to leave an encouraging comment or ideas.

Being the beginning of the year, I thought that it would be good to summarise the thread and figures and some comments for some people who doesn't quite understand what this is about.

This is a thread about laying football teams with a system I developed that still is in tweaking and trial period.

As many of you already know, laying is a tough task here on betfair due to the fact that you are laying at higher than true odds.

Still early days and I do not know if this is going to be profitable long term or we are just going thru a variance to the good side. Those who are following with real money, please exercise caution.


These are some relevant figures on the thread so far:


THREAD TOTAL: +160.84

WON LAYS: 135

LOST LAYS: 48

TOTAL LAYS: 183

STRIKE RATE: 73.8%



Personally I'm using 0.3% of bank as the value for 1 point.

After 28 "laying days" (ammount of days in which we placed at least 1 lay) and a total of 183 lays, we have achieved 160.84 points profit.

If using the above described point value of 0.3% of bank, then Bank % growth is 48.2%

This is a detail of different starting banks, followed by the 0.3% point value and the final balance for that particular starting bank:


$100 $0.3 $148.2

$300 $0.9 $444.7

$500 $1.5 $741.2

$1.000 $3 $1482.2

$2.000 $6 $2965

$3.000 $9 $4447.5

$5.000 $15 $7412.6

$10.000 $30 $14825.2


Let's see what happens next. Thanks for reading.

Monday:

Leicester

Few more soon.

Monday:


Brighton 3pts

Leeds 3pts

Leicester 3pts

Tranmere 3pts

Macclesfield 3pts

Hereford 3pts

Aldershot 5pts

Northampton 3pts

With you on the banking point T11, I was confusing final bank with profit, apologies.

I make the drawdown to be 100 points though, between 3-5th Dec.

GL today.

Some thoughts:

Hard task laying teams! It could be disappointing sometimes.
I still believe that slowly is the way forward.
Like I said before, I do not know if I will be able to make profits long term with this system, but here I'm trying and there will be 2 reasons for which I would quit:

1) If the profit is not worth the time.

2) If bank is busted.


Discipline, long term approach, staking, determination.

I think staking discipline is key, keep liabilities under control, there are good and bad days with any system, long term approach is also key, most punters would be put off by losing days. This kind of gambling could be (or not) profitable, but it takes some determination that most punters just do not have.
All of the above will not assure you anything, but it will help you a lot.

I'm rooting for you T11
"If the profit is not worth the time" when results are poor we all question that one,
focus on the big picture.

These are the lays for today wednesday, all australian games:


Adelaide 5pts

Gold Coast 3pts

Melbourne Victory 5pts

unlucky. english and elite leagues in europe. best opportunitys for lays.
concentrate knowledge, you will be more successfull.

Bingo! full house...

Hi and thanks dori and zapper!


Darlington 5.20 WON +4.77

Stockport 4.70 WON +4.77

Hayes and Yeading 6.80 WON +2.85

Newport 7.60 WON +2.85



TOTAL TODAY: +15.24

THREAD TOTAL: +144.83

WON LAYS: 146

LOST LAYS: 54

Hi and thanks macrider. At the moment just waiting for some quality matches to get involved.

Welcome KJPG

Feel free to roam around this forum, much more healtly and sensible than the football forum.

In regards of this thread, please read it from page 1, so you will get to know what is it about.

Good luck.

Trader thanks for the welcome and I 2nd the thoughts of Juzzola above, it will be refreshing to read a sensible forum compared to some of the utter rubbish discussed across the way, you discipline and dedication is very admirable. Congrats and keep it going!

Hi Trader,

A good thread, I used to lay away sides only, a few years aqo (under a different account) using 5 maybe 6 filters.

I made a profit over 500 lays..don't ask how much as I can't remember :), anyway reading your thread has got me thinking in to starting again, don't worry I wont mess up your excellent thread...maybe start one of my own. I put the selections on here mainly for the reason you have...so I would have a record that wouldn't be deleted :D unfortunately I, unlike you had a load of idiots slagging off my picks when the results didn't go as planned...long term profit is the goal not a quick £50 as I used to tell them..in the end the thread was full of idiots so I stopped posting.

Anyways best of luck :D

smithy91 : How much would i have made with a 2k bank laying £100 a time mate?

That's a lazy question smithy ;)

When I looked at the difference to level stakes earlier in the thread you would have been about 1.5k up laying to return £100 per bet, but the drawdown on page 1 I think would have bankrupted you if you were using those stakes with a 2k bank.

The points profit thing can be confusing, as staking at £1 per point but using say 10 points per bet and winning 10 bets would be described as returning 100 points profit, but in reality it's 10 points profit if you see what I mean.

juzzola,

Agreed on the small steady profits are the way forward, which doesn't mean at all it is easy task. To achieve that you still need to win your bets.
Having said that, there is a thread on the football forum, they are trying to back many 1.02 bets to make a steady profit, I don't think so.
I monitored several games today, and over 5.5 and over 6.5 got gubbed at 1.01 in the Mallorca match. Don't know if any of those forumites were involved, I'm just saying what happened.

In regards of your staking, I think that 1%=1pt is too high, just a thought. I'm using 0.3%=1pt.

Thank you for your comments on the thread results, just remember it is still very early days and still trying the selection criteria. I want to see if I can reach 1000 lays and be in some worthy profit, say between 500 and 800 points.

And thanks for the tip on the australian team.


KJPG,

Thanks once again, it is good to know that people reads this "experiment" and appreciate the effort and dedication it takes to filter all of the matches.
Start reading threads on the general betting forum, forget about the football forum, plagued of nonsense.


smithy91,

Thank you again. Same comments that above to KJPG, read more in the general betting forum.

It seems to me that you used to lay whatever team you thought wouldn't win without too many filters or selection criteria, and yes, that would be a sure yoyo effect.

How much would i have made with a 2k bank laying £100 a time mate?

You lazy buggar!! Can't you do the maths yourself?? Just kidding, man.

If the value of your 1pt is $100, then you would have made a whooping $14.863

If you want to know exactly what would be your balance if you layed to win $100 on each lay, then you will excuse me, but you need to go all over the thread and calculate that yourself, you have all the odds for all the lays, so you will be able to calculate the liability for each losing lay.

I will have to disagree with Trevh; if you started with a 2K bank and you layed to win $100 everytime, not only you would not have blown your bank at any time, but you would have aprox $7.000 (5K profit) by the 10th day, even after the 3 bad days (Days 7, 8 and 9) in which we had the biggest drawdown. Check my post in this very same page dated 03 Jan 12 02:53. You will see the profits and losses of each and every day since the start of the thread.

Trevh, please correct me if my above calculations are wrong.

The points profit thing can be confusing, as staking at £1 per point but using say 10 points per bet and winning 10 bets would be described as returning 100 points profit, but in reality it's 10 points profit if you see what I mean.

You lost me there. For me 1pt is 1pt whatever value you want to give it $1, $10, $100 and so on.
So, if you lay a team to win 5pts and your 1pts is $10, then you are laying to win $50. I don't find it confussing.


onemanarmy,

Thanks.
Yes, odds were high yesterday.

Good luck to you too.

Trader, that's an interesting point you make re: points v staking. I guess the reason my alignment is the way it is has its roots in my early betting activity. After my initial big win I dwindled to about $100 bank and since the minimum bet for Aust Betfair punters is $5, the 5% figure became associated in my head with a stake. As I began to bring my bank back up I have kept the max stake at 5% as the bank has increased. But having said that, I'm quite risk averse and it's rare that I bet more than 3 pts. Usually 2 pts in fact. However what you've said has given me food for thought. Particularly as my betting on the Big Bash cricket has gone from 15-5 to 15-8 W-L during the past few days... Since it's time to reassess my analysis, maybe a good time to look at staking too. BTW good work with your last 2 lays :)

smithy91,

Thanks a lot for the compliments on the thread.
However, your latest post concerned me a bit and I decided to give you some advice.

1st, I was only joking when I called you lazy, it was a playful comment.

And the important thing: PLEASE be aware that my laying system is STILL IN TESTING STAGE!!

Like I said before: just remember it is still very early days and still trying the selection criteria. I want to see if I can reach 1000 lays and be in some worthy profit, say between 500 and 800 points.

Laying on betfair is difficult business and can prove lethal at anytime.

I do not know if future results will be profitable or not, I'm recording the lays on this thread for future perusal and improvements.

If you decide to follow these picks with your money, please use moderate staking!!

BTW, I'm not laying Liverpool today, dodgy game, could go either way.

Regards.