Last 2 days, failing, failing, going down, let's see what happens next.


St Pauli at 2.60 LOST -8

Hayes and Yeading at 6.8 WON +2.85

Nancy at 4.60 WON +4.77

Chateauroux at 5.80 LOST -14.4

Tours at 6.80 WON +2.85

Nantes at 3.6 LOST -26

Le Havre at 4.30 WON +4.77

Angers at 2.06 LOST -5


TOTAL TODAY: -38.16

THREAD TOTAL: +104.19

WON LAYS: 103

LOST LAYS: 40

They look ok, t11.

Good luck with them.

Correction to above results:

+2.77 should read +2.85, therefore:


TOTAL TODAY: -8.23

THREAD TOTAL: +95.96

Australian games:


Newcastle

Perth

Saturday's lays:


Hearts to win 5 pts

Dunfermline to win 5 pts

That is right. What are your thoughts?

whats the return to risk ratio,

your giving yourself a 66%
in each bet, your success rate is?

ERROR UPDATE:

I was checking my excel file against the thread results to see what was wrong because the results and ammount of layed teams were different.

I found out that I never updated a result from November 26, that day I layed Valenciennes to win 10 points (this is documented on the thread, post of Nov 26 at 17:15) they lost 2-0, but I never updated it.

So, correct thread results are:


THREAD TOTAL: +124.23

WON LAYS: 113

LOST LAYS: 42

u want some,

I don't understand very well what you are saying. You say I should be more selective and you suggest me to lay some more teams at higher odds, but then you say I'm laying too many teams.

It is very difficult to make a profit when laying teams in betfair, because you are laying at higher odds than the real chances. I have that in mind and I try to lay as many teams as the selection criteria tells me to.
Also, I'm trying to lay no higher than 5ish, only exceptionally higher than that. But if you have sensible reasons to lay higher than that, just tell me.

I think at some point along the thread I said all ideas or opinions are welcome, so feel free to post anything. I don't take it as you are having a go. It's ok.


roadrunner,

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I disagree.
This is not roulette where you play dozens and you have almost 66% chance if you cover 2 dozens. We are talking football here and your maths would be right if the odds for a given match were something like:

Team A 3.35
Team B 3.35
Draw   3.30

As you know, in football, every possible result (A, B, or X) has certain % of chance. It is not the same to lay Chelsea at 1.30 vs Wigan, than lay Fulham at 4.20 vs Manchester United.
Obviously the chances of winning the Fulham lay are way higher, hence the payout of the bet.

If my maths are right, you have a 33% chance of winning the Chelsea lay, and 76% chance of winning the Fulham lay.

By the way, current strike rate stands at 77.9%, not 66%.

I should also mention that I have 12 other lays (9 winners, 3 losers) that I never posted because the match was already a few minutes into the game, so, for my personal record I have even better results.

Let's see what happens after the winter break. The selection system is still in testing and tweaking stage. Target is to reach 1000 lays and see if still in a worthy profit, or else I will quit.

Thanks.

I got the maths wrong, realized that, goodish strike rate,
making 1 point a lay at mo,
average lay is 10 points,
room for improvement,
in profit so , thats what counts.
strike rate is decieving, 
it maybe you have found your level.
its possible I could be wrong.
think you know your stuff.

A profitable day today, 11 won lays out of 15 for a total balance of +25.12 points profit.



Aston Villa 4.30 WON +4.77

Bolton 2.90 WON +4.77

Derby 2.96 LOST -9.30

Portsmouth 3.40 WON +4.77

Doncaster 5.40 WON +2.85

Coventry 2.92 LOST -9.60

Watford 2.80 WON +4.77

Rochdale POSTPONED

L Orient 3.80 WON +4.77

Yeovil 4.80 WON +4.77

Walsall 4.10 LOST -15.50

Braintree 4.60 WON +9.52

Stockport 4.10 WON +9.52

Mansfield 2.70 WON +4.77

Hayes and Yeading 4.20 WON +9.52

Grimsby 2.76 LOST -5.28



TOTAL TODAY: +25.12

THREAD TOTAL: +147.42

WON LAYS: 125

LOST LAYS: 47

Excellent stuff, t11! And Walsall only loser above 3.0

Laying QPR to win 5 points today.

QPR 4.60 WON +4.77


TOTAL TODAY: +4.77

THREAD TOTAL: +152.19

WON LAYS: 126

LOST LAYS: 47

Keep it going Trader11, personally don't think you need to change anything & although there is a long way to go you are doing very well!!

T11, I don't do predictions so can't comment on your first point, but presumably you have records that show you running at a loss for the named leagues?

Fair enough with regard to your second point, but my quick calculations do show there would have been a greater profit for level staking on your selections so far.

I don't lay 5 or over, thats the only rule.

I don't play at regional leagues, sometimes its too amateur, and everything can happen, so in the under18-20 matches too. Wales and Ireland trick me too many times, so I leave these. America: usually USA matches start when I sleep, so I only play Argentina 1, Brazil 1-2, and leave the other south american leagues.

"THREAD TOTAL: +147.44

WON LAYS: 126

LOST LAYS: 47"

As I see the main problem is the too much matches. Sometimes you lay 10 teams in a day. But you play with points so no problem, lets see what the stat show over 1000. I think it will be around +800 points.

Trevh,

The named leagues shows the lowest strike rate of all the leagues I consider for this system. I was very surprised that out of boredom I run them anyway thru the selection criteria, they were qualifiers, but I disregard them as usual, this time they were all won lays.

In regards of the staking, I do not like fluctuation or variance at all. It has been discussed on another thread, you posted your opinion over there. I rather have a straighter upwards graphic line and not a zig zag. I rather keep stakes and liabilities under control with a long term approach. Just my opinion and the way I would like to continue testing my system. Thanks a lot for your comments.


roadrunner,

In the past I have been severely damaged by betting on youth tournaments. I avoid them like the plague now. Never gambled on regional leagues, but agree with you.

I disagree on the "too many matches". Like I said before, I will lay as many or as few qualifiers I get. Why lay less teams? I think I will be wasting opportunities.

"I think it will be around +800 points." Really?? Where do I sign??? I would consider that very sucessful.


doridoru,

Thanks for your post! I would be very happy with this thread if it gets near as profitable as the Maria thread, only problem here is I'm using points, not compunding. But compunding could be great if the system proves to be profitable at flat stakes. If I have the time I might run some calculations to see what would happen if compunding from a starting bank. Stay tunned.

These are the lays for today saturday:


Wigan 3pts

Ipswich 3 pts

Doncaster 3pts

Peterborough 3pts

Exeter 3pts

AFC Wimbledon 3pts

Northampton 3pts

Excellent day well done