General Betting
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lay the draw
lay the draw
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Replies: 339
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should not have greened out of Boca, better odds available now
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And how many of the close matches end in goalless draws Brendan?
havent a clue |
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Paul,
No, I'm not at the top. And I earn less here that I would do if I had gone to work in the City, say, straight out of university. And anyway, not everything's about money. Do you think that very rich people are in a constant state of ecstasy? |
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can i ask how old you are and what you studied at uni Contrarian?
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Systems/Strategies are a load of rubbish. Each games needs viewing on its own merit. No two games are the same. If you genuinely think that people haven't tried laying the draw and failing then go ahead lay the draw but you will lose, fact.
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I'm 40 (last week). I studied philosophy, then did postgraduate work in philosophy and logic.
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dont know how the matches in this thread ended but you will find whilst looking for matches that you can use this strategy with (and if it works for you) that you will be finding matches where laying the draw for the full 90mins is value. Keep a record of match results and you will see
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happy birthday. life begins...
so you gamble full time? was it like a hallelujah/eureka moment when you realised you'd never have to work again? do any of your friends do the same or do they all have jobs? |
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Yes, I'm full-time.
Why do you think it's not work? It's time-consuming, and sometimes difficult, frustrating and boring. Pretty much like any other line of work. The main upside is that you don't have to answer to anyone (but then that would be true for most people running their own business). The main downside is that most institutions (banks, building societies, etc.) won't recognise the income as legitimate (because it's not liable for tax). No one I know independently of Betfair does the same thing (although I know a couple of people who run hedge funds, which makes them professional gamblers of a sort). |
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another Argie game tonight for you, seems to fit kickoff in 30mins 00:15
Union Santa Fe 3.3 Racing Club 2.54 Draw 3.25 |
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do your friends/family know that you're a professional gambler then? i imagine that's awkward at social gatherings when people ask. lack of understanding etc...
also if i had your magic formula i'd probably teach my mates so they can quit 9-5 too. surprised you havn't |
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getting involved brendan?
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i'll be playing the match, not sure I'll be laying the draw though, undecided at the moment
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Last season there were 380 matches in the Premier League. Of those, 111 were draws. 25 of those were scoreless draws.
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so that's good for this strategy then isnt it?
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Paul, Contrarian isn't talking about a 'magic formula'. Why can't you understand that? There is no system that allows anybody to just play X and make money.
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remember the pools? points for draws and score draws. Any idea why they gave more points to those results
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I don't know whether that's good or not Paul. Need to look at it in more detail in order to even draw basic ideas from it. The scoreless draw ratio may well look less good when you look at games involving closely-matched sides.
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whys that brendan. not familiar with the pools. before my time
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All my friends/family know what I do. I don't find it at all awkward when I meet new people who ask what I do for a living. Most of them are quite intrigued (although don't understand that my work is primarily mathematical modelling and coding).
also if i had your magic formula i'd probably teach my mates so they can quit 9-5 too. surprised you havn't But it's not a magic formula. I've spent years developing models and software that squeeze as much out of the Betfair markets as I can. I could just give the software to a friend, I suppose, but then there wouldn't be a lot left for me! |
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as far as I know its because you will find it hard to predict them. Like picking lottery numbers.
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really one other mate using your systems would effect you that much?
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You don't understand market liquidity, do you Paul?
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yes but 1 person
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Paul,
Yes. The Betfair markets are small. Compared to the world's financial markets, they are miniscule. Quite often I find that I'm taking the whole amount at a price that I find attractive. Obviously if I were to split this with one other person, I'd be halving my profit. |
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If you thought there was, let's say, 3K of value available in the market, and you could comfortably afford to put on 3K, why would you not put on the whole 3K? If there was somebody else doing exactly the same thing, they could well be competing with you for that 3K, and you might have to take just 1K or 2K as a result.
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Listen to LB, Paul. He understands.
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i see. ok where we pitching for this Santa Fe match then lads?
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does it fit the lay the draw criteria?
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In case anyone's interested, these are the teams from last season and how many goal-less draws they were involved in... Those laying Fulham scoreless draws may have had a nasty ride..
Fulham 5 Birmingham 4 Man City 4 Man U 4 Sunderland 4 Tottenham 4 Arsenal 3 Blackburn 3 Newcastle 3 Wigan 3 Aston Villa 2 Blackpool 2 Chelsea 2 Everton 2 West Ham 2 Liverpool 1 Bolton 1 Stoke 1 West Brom 0 Wolves 0 |
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what bets you had on the game brendan mate?
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there is thread on footy, gone against Racing Club. could well win dont think 2.54 is value though.
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Some of the questions regarding stakes at the beginning of this thread show just how mathematically illiterat emany ppl are,
FFS you've been given the lay oddsd and the trade out odds and the profit on the trade. How hard is it to work out what his stake was?? if you haven't the brains to work that out you should not be betting at all................................ |
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0-1 lets get green
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And a goal goes in! From 3.2 to 4.6 in a matter of a couple of minutes. Lovely...
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well played lads
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Think Paul's getting the taste for this!!
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i need to up stakes. £20 stake means ive only won £2.
also one 0-0 will wipe out maybe 9 or 10 successful trades  |
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no my glass is still half empty at current LB
 see above |
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Careful Paul. You know our thinking behind this is a little dodgy, don't you? Don't go betting big stakes!!
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