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Ocean0201 - which period do those stats cover?
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sorry should have stated.. 06/07 till last season...
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HCT, and there are people on here who would have
some believe that it is easy money. |
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Interesting stuff. I've noticed that (for instance) movement in the draw price following a first half goal in a Bundesliga game is much lower than other 'elite' leagues. To some extent this can be covered by the higher back price on 0-0 - but still a difficult strategy with which to secure long term profits. It all depends on selecting the right games - and I've not found the key to that.
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Kenilworth - as I'm sure you're implying those people are probably working their own strategy (as i hinted in the earlier post).
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... LB omitted to mention that WBA, prior to Saturday hadn't
drawn 0-0 in their 5 games this season, plus all of last season, a total of 43 league matches... At least. Just thought I'd mention it. |
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HCT, i'm implying there are irresponsible posters (not you) hinting
that it's easy money, which it most certainly isn't. . |
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No problem Kenilworth - we're of one mind on this. The fact that the lay the draw 'system' has been widely sold for some time (maybe less so now) tells you everything that you need to know about it. Wisely or not, I don't like to see other forumites be encouraged to go down the 'get poor slowly' route... (I know that is probably not the right attitude for my own long term profits - but then I'm quite happy with doing what I'm doing re BF)
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Maybe there some Hidden Agenda's here people posting of the benefits of the Laying the Draw while concealing the fact that they may be in the Backing the Draw camp.
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Looking through this it does appear that the OP is the only one stating it is easy stuff. It certainly isn't. I have tried this method with numerous insurances - backing nil nil etc but to grind out a profit without risking large(ish) liability is not my idea of fun. Lord bobbin has never implied it is easy so see no reason to argue with his reasonings. Just for the record West brom v Fulham regardless of previous stats on W Brom's side looked a fair bet as nil nil. I dutched backing 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 with little down side. I do think the backing of correct score market is underrated on here. But maybe this is the wrong thread...
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Interested that backing c/s is underrated. Could you expand on this?
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HCT153, I play primarily as a trader/scalper. In my opinion there are excellent opportunities to dutch several correct score markets. Most with a view to trading. Some examples - I regularly back the 2-2 score which is normally generous odds. The price will come in on numerous occasions - if selections are suitable but of course you will get losing runs. One back can make up for this. if the score reaches 1-1 or 2-1/1-2 the 2-2 price will have shortened considerably. Another example - Italian leagues often have low scoring games - I regularly dutch the 0-0, 1-0, o-1 and 1-1 and often trade out in last 10 minutes if my bet is alive. Since accepting losing runs I have moved forward. Slowly oh so slowly but forward all the same.
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Most people miss the point with LTD, you can be successful, like anything else you have to put hardwork into identifying matches or belong to a service which has a proven track record. Maybe most people would not pick a Fulham game as a LTD candidate based on previous results. People will use various filters for game selection.
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aceporty, hard work identifying matches ? the games with lowest
goal expectancy. |
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Not sure what you mean kenilworth.
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You don't know what goal expectancy means ?
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Not sure, do you mean crunching the stats to get an average.
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Roughly speaking, yes. The lower the expectancy, the more likely lower
than average goals. The less likely we have goals , the more likely a 0-0, at least in theory. |
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Yeah come on contrarian give us a better strategy
still waiting. what a chump |
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A better strategy appears to be to take Ian Erskine's FTS selections, and BACK the draw after the first goal. With millions of followers all over the world trying to exit at this point, the value is in backing, and since tracking these selections (77), backing the draw pre-game has an ROI of 12.2% so you will miss the 0-0s, but usually get a better price on the draw. Early days, but the logic seems sound. Check out my blog for more details.
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