General Betting
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lay the draw
lay the draw
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LB is a horse racing buff rather than laying the draw for a few peanuts.
you full time on here brendan? |
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Firstly being schooled by Paulie. And now Brendanuk1 is claiming to be sincerely wishing me luck. Very very strange evening. I'm almost expecting a big rabbit to walk past the window and wave cheerily to me...
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 where was i schooling you? |
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Well early on in this thread I seemed to be asking around for guidance, and then I seemed to be following your instructions to green up... An idiot reading this thread might get the wrong idea!!
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this is true. as i say horses is more your niche.
what would be the wrong idea said idiot may assume? |
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I think it's late Paulie. And I've got a few hours of work I want to get through before bed.. Night!
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fair enough heading off myself. just wondered what you meant by they might get the wrong idea.
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highjacked me thread you feckers
  obviously 0-0s kill this strategy (unless u back 0-0 pre ko as a saver bet) but 0-0 kill all bets/systems that require goals if you back overs, 0-0 kills it, overs you need 3 goals, laying draw u need 1 goal 0-0 pretty much knacker every bet out there unless you are on unders |
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ipswich/cov tonight is one i will be getting involved in. (hasnt been a 0-0 between these 2 in donkeys years)
ipswich havent had a home 0-0 in any comp since feb 2010 (38 home games) and coventry havent had a 0-0 away since dec 2010 (17 away games) In all honesty I will prob make it more sucessful than you guys because I am very selective and stick to leagues I know. none of this punting on south american leagues you know feck all about just hoping for the best |
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In that case, i-only-lay, why don't you just lay the 0-0?
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ok but if you keep this thread active we can all get suggest things to each other. i shall join you with tonights game, i agree with your points about it
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I personally don't get involved in this strategy however I can see how it would work as a part of someone's betting tools ... especially if they had filters (ie: goal stats, odds relativity etc etc) which spat out games to get involved in ...
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getting involved tonight LB?
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Haka v IFK Mariehamn 2011-09-19 16:30 might interest you
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whys that? closeley matched?
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No Paul. I won't get closely involved tonight. I gather from i-only-lay's comment this morning that he wasn't entirely appreciative of our contributions last night! It's his thread, and I think he wants it to be a serious one based on serious stats, so I'm happy to cut out the chat and leave the floor to him.
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yep no chat, just bets. great thread potentially this.
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would have made money that haka game
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Laying the draw, then backing the draw when a goal is
scored, 2 bets. For this to be made pay, one of the prices (of which there is no reference) must be wrong, but which one ? It would have to be the second bet, as the pre match price is standard based on both sides chances. It seems to me anyone doing this bet should simply wait for a goal, then back the draw. Two snags are eliminated, the 0-0 draw and two quick goals being scored. FWIW I wouldn't touch it. |
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how are those snags eliminated?
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I used to use a strategy that i thought was the bees knees. Goal scored in any game within the first 10 minutes. Lay over 2.5 goals. Get out of the bet around the 15/20 minute mark with a profit but as ken says quick goals kill you.
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hey Paulme, haka matched @ 100 in that game. money to be made on mistakes. take a while to catch one but if your patient
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100 match odds?
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yes someone boobed and took 1.2 on the draw. pushing haka out to 100 and Mariehamn up to 80.
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why would the teams be 100 and 80 if its 1-1?
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someone boobed
there are clues out there if you keep your wits about you  |
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major boob
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Yes Paul. Just as Mythical Prince was telling you yesterday... I didn't think you'd understood him..
(Sorry OP. Couldn't resist that one post!) |
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but then youd have to sit through every game waiting for some boob that probably woulndt materialise would you not?
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Well erm, not exactly... But there would be lots of putting up prices. It wouldn't be fun and it would take a bit of time, but you were the one who said you wanted to 'work' for 8 hours and make £30. Of course, what you actually want to do is sit and post on the forums for 8 hours and call that work instead. And that isn't going to make you a bean!
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if i thought i could solidly make £30 doing that i would
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Lat weekend there were 7 score draws and one 0-0 from
45 games. How would this system deal with those results ? |
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it wouldn't. as me and LB concluded in the wee small hours
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Kenilworth, in the case of the score draws you'd be greening up (or possibly taking a small loss) as soon as the first goal went in. That would leave you with just one 0-0 from 45 games.
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which makes it quite attracticve to be honest with £100 stakes
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Then why didn't you say that to Kenilworth yourself instead of just agreeing with him!
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Lat weekend there were 7 score draws and one 0-0 from
45 games. How would this system deal with those results ? What part of being selective do people not understand. ur not going to do every single game blindly where the odds will catch you. Also if you must know this system actually works superb for games that are a draw at halftime. pre ko draw odds are generally 3.20-3.60, also once a goal has been scored then the odds movement is'nt that much but enough to make a small proft. whereas if you wait until halftime and games that are 0-0/1-1/2-2 etc the draw odds are alot lower 2.10-2.40. Also once the goal comes 2nd half due to the fact it is later in the gaem the draw odds go way out and profits are alot bigger so here ur liability is less due to the lower odds and profits are bigger due to the big drift after a 2nd half goal the halftime system is far better becoz you make smaller losses and bigger profits than doing it pre KO look at the 3 i did last night, napoli and lyon were pre ko and made about £48 whereas the brugge match which was using the halftime draw system made £80 so i made more in the one match than the other 2 put together. |
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so why not always do it at half time?
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using the halftime system you are looking for games that wil have 2nd half goals.
2 are on my shortlist today and they are horsens vs odense and ipswich vs cov all 6 of ipswichs games have had a 2nd half goal and 5 of coventrys 6 game shave had a 2nd half goal (11 from 12) 7 of horsens 8 games have had a 2nd half goal (3/4 home games) all 8 of odenses games have had a 2nd half goal (4/4 away) 15/16 2nd goal from these 2. so if horsens/odense or ipswich/cov were a draw at halftime I would be very confident of getting a winning trade in the 2nd half |
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good luck, i have to go out for an hour or two so may not be here to trade otherwise they sound good to me, esp the ipswich
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