the problem is do more than 1 in 8 games end 0-0?

Well, I guess that's what the statistics will tell us. I remember seeing one set that suggested that in most leagues considerably fewer than 1 in 8 games ended 0-0. Couldn't say whether that applies to the Argy sides though.

LB,

But those opportunities to trade will only be frequent enough, and large enough to offset the times you lose, if the original lay price is shorter than true value.

Now you may be able to find the draw prices that are too short, but simply deciding to lay all (or a large class of) draws on the grounds that you'll be able to back following a goal, is doomed to failure.

Yeah come on contrarian give us a better strategy

To be honest Contrarian, I was taking a small position so that I had sufficient interest to monitor the prices and see how they were reacting to different incidents in the game.

Obviously long-term success would depend on trying to gauge how likely the 0-0 draw was in each case, and looking for value in the odds. For the time being I'm just interested in looking at the mechanics of how it works.

I could tell you the strategies that I use, but having advertised them on a public forum they would lose most or all of their profitability, and I would have to find an alternative way of making a living!

pm?

Okay u want some. Answer me this - why would Contrarian (or, indeed, anyone else) give you just one of his strategies that he's probably spent weeks, months or even years working on?

Usual response.

I'm due to pay a 4 figure sum in PC this week, so I don't feel like giving anything else away.

then you should wake up every day thanking your lucky stars for your gift. kinda like rooney with the gift of football ability.

Ok, I'm feeling generous. I'll post a strategy that is GUARANTEED to work.

ok lets give him a chance and thank him for his generosity in advance. that better?

i will be the first to praise him to the hilt if it comes off and will forever endorse him on the forum

ah there we go.

another "usual response"

let me in:

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anyway back to the topic guys... trying another LB?

well derr

Statistics are easy to get hold of Paul. Go here:

http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php

Download a season's worth of results and see if you can pick out patterns. Them compare them to another season, and another season..  Learn to program a little in Excel and you can quickly create some interesting statistics which the majority of Betfair punters won't have. Then you'll be able to start looking at value. At that point, you'll be better than many of the people you're competing with!

Happy days!

Good strategy if you can pick matches that wont end in draws.

that game's 1-1 now. good job we greened

Well as i-only-lay points out, choose two teams that are quite closely matched in terms of odds, and the odds on the draw will probably change upon a goal being scored. On occasions you'd end up taking a small loss. Usually, however, there would be a profit.

Obviously he's not talking about matches where one team is vastly superior and is expected to win comfortably. Because then if the unfancied team scores first, the draw goes from being unlikely to being quite possible.  However, it stands to reason that if the two teams are closely matched, a goal for either side would change things somewhat.

2 teams with odds above 2 and below 3 (ie closely matched) are quite likely to end in draws. Unless you can pick the value ones you will run into trouble. but good luck