General Betting
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horse laying challenge: £100 to £1k
horse laying challenge: £100 to £1k
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Now, I'm off to get on with my US Racing. Good luck, and read, watch and study (but don't bet!) as much as possible...
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Oh, Place Bets are quite a good one, although don't get sucked in by low prices - those 1.1/1.2/1.3 shots can kill you if you don't know what you're doing!
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thanks for taking the time lord. good luck tonite. no doubt you'll win. are you a big staker on few races like veitch?
i tend to back to place normally yes. just choose the fave. never works over time. |
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Well, erm, I'm not a big staker like Veitch.. But I do like to put larger sums on one or two races rather than smaller sums on several races. It depends on what comes up, but generally I wouldn't want to be playing more than a handful of races over the night. Backing (whether in Place or Win markets) is hard to win on, so you've got to be certain your horse is very strong, or that you're getting a darn good price for it.
And please please don't simply choose the fave to place. Sometimes they really are the best horse, but blindly backing the fave to place will send you to the poorhouse. |
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yep poorhouse is where i reside because of it
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Backing (whether in Place or Win markets) is hard to win on, so you've got to be certain your horse is very strong, or that you're getting a darn good price for it.
i think that is the holy grail in terms of gambling on horses. |
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Well having the discipline to play only when you feel everything is in your favour is perhaps as close to the holy grail as you can get.
You were confident about the Man U bet apparently? You want to be finding races where you feel a bit like that! |
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LordBobbbin, great great posts!
May I ask you if you are using a specific staking management plan? |
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Thanks for the compliments Acornel!
I don't use anything specific like Kelly. I generally split my current betting capital into sixths. My aim is to make a whole sixth every two or three days. If I have a bet I feel really good about, I'll put a whole sixth on it. If the odds weren't particularly high (I generally play Place bets, so a typical 'strong' bet for me would be in the region of 1.45-1.7) then I might play a series of smaller bets to try and make it up to a whole sixth. Sometimes I'll only play half or even a quarter of that amount, and try and make my full 'sixth' through a series of smaller bets. (Some of those bets may be at odds of 3.0/4.0 though, so one small stake might win me enough to give me my full sixth..) Once I've made a total profit 1.5x my current betting capital, I'll withdraw the betting capital I was using before and start betting anew with the 1.5x profit. That obviously means I can increase my typical bet size by half as much again. In this way, I can gradually increase my bet size but without putting my entire capital at risk. Every time I make 1.5x profit, the money I was using before becomes 'safe', so I'm gradually building with time. All a bit complicated to explain (clearly!), but it's been working well for several months now, give or take the odd blip... Have you done any analysis into staking plans? |
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I am using Kelly which I think is the most appropriate for my case (my system is not strongly linked to horse races ... yet)
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When I analyzed past races (last X months) I did not compare different staking plans to see which one is more profitable. My focus was to find an edge and I performed some simulations using Kelly staking (different parameters) to see what happened if I had used it ...
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Yeah, Kelly seems to be a popular choice.
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paulme
02 Sep 11 17:46 Joined: 20 Jan 11 | Topic/replies: 2,257 | Blogger: paulme's blog ..CHALLENGE UPDATE.. since ausgust 1st (£850 loss on horse to place) all betting - -£226 +160 summer points betfair bonus (only way i can make money) = £66 down. I don't think that's too bad on the face of it. Cheap enough lesson...but have you actually learned anything or are you still blindly backing and laying? If you've put all this time into it for a loss, hopefully you're wiser as to how best to utilise your money on racing now? |
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hbk - i know you havnt had a cheap shot hence my plauding of you.
bantam - nope still blindly punting |
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chasing devil. desire to make my money back.
also as i keep outlining, the danger that people posting big P+L figures are posing to newbies. i will not stop defeniding/enforcing this |
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What were you doing for the first 3 years that was illegal?
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today i shall be laying scotland and backing azarenka in the tennis.
since 1st august when i lost £850 on a horse to place i am £66 down so would like to win this back and then maybe quit gambling |
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66 aint a lot paul, why not just quit now man?
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people losing money funny to you freddie?
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i cant bet. only 18p in my account.
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its called honesty freddie. you should try it one day in your life
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freak
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You leave my jacksy out of this Williams!
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run along and let the grown ups talk freddie
 how you do last night US Racing bobbbin? |
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1 10 Ortac Rock (IRE) 9-3 A Kirby R Hannon 2 66/1
touched 50/1 2 6 1¼ Electrician 9-3 M Halford J H M Gosden 2 66/1 3 3 hd Firestarter 9-3 M Barzalona D R C Elsworth 2 10/1 opened 9/1 4 9 Eurystheus (IRE) 9-3 P Dobbs R Hannon 2 28/1 that un? right race for outsiders that. |
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I did okay on the US stuff. 2 races but nothing particularly big. In truth, I was a little distracted by the tennis, which is stupid as I play much smaller stakes there - and I'm not as sure of myself in any case. Modest profit on the tennis, but I'd gladly hand it back if it meant never having to bet on Stosur again....
You played yet, Freddie? It's going to be a bit of a marathon afternoon, given all these races! |
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Only about half the field had even run a race in that one Paulie. How you're supposed to have a go at those types of race without insider info, I don't know.
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didnt bet bobbin. cant bet at moment. 18p bank.
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Have a good afternoon Freddie!
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I didn't mean 'you' as in 'you' Paulie. I meant 'you' as in 'them'. 18p is quite hard to bet with. You could always find a nice 1.09 bet to lay...
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ah yes i could couldnt i. you betting on alot of races this afty lord?
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I'll try not to. But I've got some tedious freelance work to get on with, so I'll almost certainly spend the afternoon watching the races just so that I can put off the freelance stuff...
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i would back scotland if i were you.
the reason: im laying them when i can get funds. my loss limit is lifted at 3.20pm |
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Think I'll leave you to your Scotland bet then Paulie! Good luck..
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thanks. i would strongly recommend a back of them though as i am laying them.
oh you never said the name of the BOOM guy? |
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No. I didn't. But keep an eye out for him. He'll almost certainly be there on Sunday, and whenever he wins he'll get every other forum poster booming him. It'll be obvious..
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why cant you just name the geez?
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If you want something that's easy, go and buy a Join-the-Dots book. If you want to make money off the back of somebody else's tips, you should at least be prepared to do a modicum of research to find the right person!
Trust me. It will be *very* obvious. Nobody else is adored as much as this person. (You can find the poster's name this afternoon if you just go through the threads for the last week!) |
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1-0
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told you to back them.
no need to laugh though ironman |