paul had a big win on utd to win the title last year lads

How much did you win on Man U, Paul?

Freddie, I bet Paul wouldn't!

Just 2K.  And the 2K you lost on tennis... Was that the same 2K?

dangerous but inspiring also

Well yes, you need to take some of those P+L figures with a healthy pinch of salt.    Frankly though, I couldn't give a stuff how much somebody else makes or claims to make. It doesn't matter to me.  All I care about is that my judgment gets better over time and I have larger amounts of money to place.

I'm still very small-time, but much less small-time than I was, and that's the only thing that's of relevance to me. Other people's P+Ls are just meaningless noise.

fair enough. and dont doubt me bobbbin. as far as i know you've never placed a bet in your life so enough of the cheap put downs all round thanks. the only 2 proven gamblers here are hbk hornets and undern.

like i'd trust you with any info

shall i post my sort code and account number mate?

not saying you havnt bobbbin just saying the only evidence that anyone bets or has any knowledge of betting, which you two and others keep giving me cheap shots about is hornets and undern. everyone else is just an unknown without the balls to ask things or post their own.

And that's the way it shall remain Paul. I tried putting up my bets on one of the forums, and it was fine when things were rosy. But whenever you hit a bad streak, the extra pressure coming from the other forumites would make me do stupid things.

And, as Freddie says, there's always a chance somebody else will work out why what you're doing and try and copy you. Frankly, I don't see anyone has anything to gain from posting their bets here, unless they have a system which they're just starting work on, and want to hear insights from others with experience. Generally though, if I want to show off (which seems to be the main reason for posting up bets), I think I'll just buy a pair of leather trousers instead!

Q&A?? Oh dear God....  Haven't I spent enough time on you???

and your bet is freddie? prove yourself

Anyway, anyone who'd want to let his reputation come down to a single bet would have to be fairly stupid!

me neither. ok bobbbin:

1. do you work away from betting?
2. how old are you?
3. how much do you make a week on average from betting?

up to you if you care to respond.

paulme,
if you dont believe it can work, then give up now, if you think you can make money, then you need to acknowledge that it takes work, and that there are no short cuts.

See you around Freddie!!

impressive. i always said you write well.

so you literally make a living off betting on horses.

ok how many bets do you make a day on average?

i love the US Racing. prob my favourite of all at current!!

the faves seem to win more often i notice than UK.

i tend to bet on every race though when i do like a true mug.

arrrgh wish you could help me out a bit LB. would love to be able to bet on the US and not lose my wage

US racing is great, because there's so much information available on the races. But that does make it quite tricky to grasp as well, because there's so much to get your head around.  I'm not sure I'd be as keen on it if I couldn't do a little programming - it's brilliant being able to write a program that can take race data, do thousands of calculations on it, and then send it back to me in an easy-to-read form filled with pace figures, carefully ranked speed figures, full sectional times, workout times etc.

The Formulator PPs on the DRF site are extremely useful - although you do have to pay for them. I understand one of the other form sites (Brisnet perhaps) does a cut-down free version of its paid form, although personally I wouldn't want to rely on less info than the DRF PPs give.

There are plenty of good books available. Tom Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping is great, and the Andy Beyer books are good intros, as is Steve Davidowitz's Betting Thoroughbreds - that one may be out of print now.  James Quinn's Handicapper's Condition Book has some interesting info too, although you may get more from that one once you've had some experience. I also got a bit from Charles Carroll's Handicapping Speed, and Dick Mitchell's books too. I suspect you'll gain a lot of information through reading the first few on that list.

Most of what you learn, though, comes from looking at the form of each race and trying to work out why one horse wins rather than another. Look at the class. Look at the speed figures. Take a piece of paper and write down the horses with the five best speed figures, for instance, and see where they finish. Do that for every race on a racecard and see if some patterns start to reveal themselves. (You should really be thinking in terms of hundreds of races, but just getting in info for 10 to 20 races will be a start.)    Do the same with other angles, such as class (which is very easy to assess in US stuff).

The key really is in trying to work out what factors makes horses win. And then waiting for the odd horse to stand out on paper. Then back them if they're available at a good price - only around 25-30% of the horses that look like good bets will be available at anything like a bettable price.

The key is to bet only sparingly though. Only losers and the very very good bet almost every race. And very few of us will ever be good enough to make the 'very very good' category...

Most of the US form guides will have some sort of speed figure. In the DRF PP Formulator files, you get 'Beyer' figures - Andy Beyer, the author I mentioned in the book list, and a few other people, used to process their own speed figures, and the DRF eventually started paying them to produce these speed figures officially for the DRF. Since then they've become known as Beyer figures. There are other variations on the general concept of speed figures, but Beyer figures are known to most US horse players.

Not everybody likes speed figures - some will tell you they're a load of hogwash!  However, in my experience they give you a very decent (if limited) overview of how well a horse did in its previous races. Look back at a horse's last four races, and if it has several similar Beyer figures, and if those Beyer figures place it near the top, you can probably count on it as being a contender. High Beyers gained straight after a horse has moved to a new trainer or come back to the track after a long time off (2 months+) are also notable.

Bear in mind that a lot of horses have no real advantage over their rivals - most of the other horses will have similar figures. I'd be careful of laying horses that have more than a 2pt advantage over the others in the field. However, if there are several horses in the field that have scored a greater figure in either of their last two races, the favourite could be vulnerable.

Rank as many races as you can, and see how often and in what situations the favourites get overturned. Try and work out what sort of advantage (in terms of Beyers) a horse would need to have in order to justify its place as a solid favourite. 

You should also look at the class of the last few races run by each horse. Is the horse today stepping up or down in class? And if so, by how much.   

You'll also need to study the pace of the race. For that I'd recommend Brohamer's book. I have a few little tricks of my own that I use to measure the pace of each race, but, sorry, I'm not going to disclose any of those to you...

In US Racing, Speed figures and Class are both huge factors in deciding whether a horse can be competitive today. They're easy to get hold of if you have the form from DRF (or Brisnet etc.).  Study those factors and learn where a horse has or doesn't have an advantage, and you'll be getting somewhere. Every night there're several races where horses in the top four on the betting are going off at silly highly-layable prices. They are there, but you need to be selective!